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The new ATH before the halving has confused many analysts, but I think the cyclical nature of BTC and the crypto market will still be maintained this season, meaning that we will have an ATH in 2025 rather than in 2024. I still have expectations for the Halving because it could be the biggest narrative we have to maintain the upward trend of BTC and the fundamentals of the market.
I am also not a technical analyst, I only use simple indicators and tools to identify trend reversals: trendline, MACD, RSI. I hope I won't miss the opportunity to take profits at the top range.
Well, I didn't make that about TA or indicators, my point was only about the thing everyone expected from the halving, the demand outpacing supply since there were fewer coins entering the market, so lower values of inflow needed to keep the balance and also lower values to raise the price.
But since the price ended up going up way before that, we have now an increased supply in $ compared to back in November even if we count the halving, so the thing about a total imbalance in supply and demand is no longer relevant.
The expectations for the halving were back then for $ needed to keep a balance going from $26 million down 13 million a day!
Now, even with the halving we will need 32 million! just to keep the price level.
And if the coins reach 120k, we will need 64 million to keep the balance, 3 times the amount needed each day at the end of the year!
It's not about indicators, those are flat sums of known daily supply entering the market!