Why There Might Be Limited Volatility During the 7 Hour Bitfinex and Ethfinex Up

[Ozark]

On the 19th of December, the team at Bitfinex and Ethfinex gave an advanced notice to users of both platforms that there will be a three to seven hour long upgrade that will involve data migration to their new bare-metal servers. This move is meant to enhance platform speed, security and performance.

Why Traders Expect Some Volatility During the Bitfinex Upgrade

Many traders are probably remembering the ‘pump’ that took place on the 22nd August 2018, when Bitmex went offline due to a scheduled maintenance. On that day, BTC climbed by more than $400  in a matter of 20 minutes ($6,400 to around $6,800). The explanation that was postulated by traders, was that there were no active BTC short positions to drive the value of Bitcoin down.

This theory holds water given that Bitmex is currently handling a 24 hour Bitcoin trade volume of $664.545 Million out of the total of $4.928 Billion. This is 13.5% of the entire Bitcoin trade volume in a 24 hour period.

Why the Bitinex Upgrade Might Cause Limited Volatility

Further checking coinmarketcap.com, we find that Bitfinex is ranked 13th with a current 24 hour trade volume of $198.8 Million. In the case of Ethfinex, it is ranked 93rd at the moment of writing this with a 24 hour trade volume of $1.89 Million.

The total 24 hour trade volume of the crypto markets currently stands at $16 Billion, therefore these two exchanges currently cater for around 1.25% of the total crypto trade volume.

Bitfinex’s 24 Hour BTC Trade Volume

Checking BTC trade volume, Bitfinex is currently handling $51.4 Million of the total 24 hour Bitcoin trading volume of $4.928 Billion. This is a a little over 1% of the total BTC trade volume.

Conclusion

Comparing the amount of Bitcoin volume that is traded on Bitmex to that being traded on Bitfinex, it is safe to conclude that the 3 to 7 hour upgrade might not cause much volatility as was witnessed on the 22nd of August when Bitmex went offline. The Bitmex 24 hour Bitcoin trade volume eclipses that of Bitfinex by a factor of 13.

However, 1% of the total BTC trade volume being inactive during the server upgrade by Bitfinex will still cause some volatility but not to the magnitude that many crypto traders expect.

Perhaps what might cause some price movement, is the general psychology of crypto traders who assume that Bitfinex going offline will prop the value of Bitcoin a few hundred points up.

SOURCE