Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?

[examplens]

15 years ago, 21 million Bitcoins sounded like a huge amount. Today, especially when we have greedy ETFs that buy everything on offer, it all looks much different.
For a long time, not so much attention was paid to the security and storage of BTC, and I know of many stories about lost Bitcoins. Defective hardware, forgotten-lost passwords or private keys etc... I recently read somewhere that around 4 million Bitcoins are considered lost due to similar reasons.
Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?

[ABCbits]

I recently read somewhere that around 4 million Bitcoins are considered lost due to similar reasons.

I think you refer to Chainalysis research which done back in 2017.

Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?

I don't think such thing exist. For example, there are 2 more recent research which state different thing.
1. IntoTheBlock state at least 29% of Bitcoin is lost. Source, https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/21327812/.
2. Cane island state at least 1/3 of all Bitcoin is lost. Source, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/21/more-than-50-of-bitcoin-addresses-are-now-in-loss/.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d580747908cdc0001e6792d/t/5e98dde5558a587a09fac0cc/1587076583519/research+note+4.17.pdf

[examplens]

I don't think such thing exist. For example, there are 2 more recent research which state different thing.
1. IntoTheBlock state at least 29% of Bitcoin is lost. Source, https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/21327812/.
2. Cane island state at least 1/3 of all Bitcoin is lost. Source, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/21/more-than-50-of-bitcoin-addresses-are-now-in-loss/.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d580747908cdc0001e6792d/t/5e98dde5558a587a09fac0cc/1587076583519/research+note+4.17.pdf

Yes, there are only speculations based on coins that have not been touched for more than 5 years. Hodlers can also be there.
Somehow, the most common percentage that is considered is 30% of the total. A really big amount.

[Cryptsafe]

I think there are still lost bitcoin still not yet discovered to be lost forever. Possibly they might have a recent transaction history but are lost. Although they might be in little fractions amongst circulating bitcoin and can not be detected wether they are active or not and are just little compared to the ones already detected and are already known to be missing.

[armanda90]

Seems some losses in bitcoin can't recovery yet with many people invested with scam site and the owner have under arrest without get back to recovery their bitcoin wallet.
not only from hype scam investment site but also many third party side close operation such as PayZa I hold my bitcoin after converting from dollar there and until right now can't withdraw to my wallet yet.
I think most 4% of bitcoin amount from supply have losses without get recovery any more, some people still looking for their potential how to recovery their bitcoin wallet although although its seems very difficult.

[dkbit98]

Millions of bitcoins are lost forever for different reasons, but we are never going to know the exact number.
In the beginning bitcoin was not worth a lot and people didn't care if they lose their hard drive or private keys.
I think there was some great report from Glassnode showing this information in detail, but I can't find it now.

Hope dies last
Man who threw away £150m 8000 bitcoins hopes AI and robot dogs will get it back
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/02/man-hopes-ai-and-robot-dogs-will-help-recover-150m-in-bitcoin-from-landfill

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?

Did you actually mean to say "forever-locked Bitcoins" or you meant to say "forever-lost Bitcoin" ?, for if the former is actually what you meant to say, then it's completely different from what you are discussing, as locked does not mean lost, there is always the possibility that what is locked can be unlocked at any time.

But of the later is what you meant to say, then I would say that you are right, it is estimated that around 20 percent of all bitcoin in circulation are lost forever - according to Google, and putting that 20 percent in actual numbers, that should be around 4+ million bitcoins.

Nothing we can do about this, atleast, it has contributed the increasing bitcoin's scarcity.

[Z-tight]

A lot of people lost their keys in the early days compared to now, BTC was not worth anything then and people did not store it securely, but these days people pay better attention to their security and other than losing funds stored in exchanges or in custodial services, i don't think too many people lose their keys.

The number of lost BTC isn't something we would be able to know exactly, some people even consider coins that have not moved for a long time to be lost, but the owner could still have their keys and be waiting for the right time to spend their coins.

[Wiwo]

15 years ago, 21 million Bitcoins sounded like a huge amount. Today, especially when we have greedy ETFs that buy everything on offer, it all looks much different.
For a long time, not so much attention was paid to the security and storage of BTC, and I know of many stories about lost Bitcoins. Defective hardware, forgotten-lost passwords or private keys etc... I recently read somewhere that around 4 million Bitcoins are considered lost due to similar reasons.
Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?

At this point,  gone are the days when Bitcoin lost is a contribution to everyone as stated by Satoshi Nakamoto himself,  but now with the ETF around and accumulating almost every day,  it becomes very important to lay attention to what we considered as lost Bitcoin,  this quest can lead us into asking a few questions so as for us to get more clarity such question as.

1: what do we consider to be lost Bitcoin?

2: how do we identify lost Bitcoin and in what ways to claim that they are truly lost forever?

The above question may look similar but paying close attention to both will expose a lot of things surrounding that question,  because there have been misconceptions that any wallet that is not active for the year is considered lost,  or is there a mechanism we can know lost Bitcoin/wallets.

[examplens]

Did you actually mean to say "forever-locked Bitcoins" or you meant to say "forever-lost Bitcoin" ?, for if the former is actually what you meant to say, then it's completely different from what you are discussing, as locked does not mean lost, there is always the possibility that what is locked can be unlocked at any time.

lost or locked, call them what you want.
Yes, we can go into detail about the performance, but we are talking about the essence.
For example, someone died and left behind a locked wallet, Are they now lost or locked coins or both? Will the owner ever come to unlock them (not for sure)? Keep in mind that the wallet can be locked in several ways.

[Crwth]

For those who died, I think if they somehow leave a note for their family to utilize, it would be a matter of time before some dormant BTCs start moving again. I remember reading about an old wallet moving and cashing out recently, a lot of BTC was dumped. It never stopped the market from buying though. It is probably seen as an opportunity to spread his bitcoin more and more, which is a good thing IMO.

[tranthidung]

I recently read somewhere that around 4 million Bitcoins are considered lost due to similar reasons.
Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?

We never know the precise number of lost bitcoin. We can estimate it but basically with estimation, don't expect accurate one.

You can use HOLD waves and make your own estimations.

• https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/hodl-waves/
• With different thresholds of inactive age of UTXOs, you will have different estimations of lost bitcoins.

If your definition of lost bitcoins is bitcoins in inactive UTXOs for 7- 10 years, you will see it accounts for about 4.85% of circulating supply.
4.85% * 19,647,850 = 950,921 BTC.
If you use 5+ years as a threshold, it will be 4.85% + 10.7% = 15.55%
15.55 * 19,647,850 = 3,055,241 BTC

lost or locked, call them what you want.

Lost, locked or just inactive for a while but will be active in future.

[bitterguy28]

I myself have lost some amount of Bitcoin few years ago and up to now Never that I will recover that and will be lost forever (just wanted to contribute from my own experience)
and also I believe that there will never be a legit details of how much bitcoin was lost , because even if the wallet is not moving for more than 10 years yet it may be an active wallet or sleeping one.

[Faisal2202]

15 years ago, 21 million Bitcoins sounded like a huge amount. Today, especially when we have greedy ETFs that buy everything on offer, it all looks much different.
For a long time, not so much attention was paid to the security and storage of BTC, and I know of many stories about lost Bitcoins. Defective hardware, forgotten-lost passwords or private keys etc... I recently read somewhere that around 4 million Bitcoins are considered lost due to similar reasons.
Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?

You must be an old user of crypto, because only in start 5 to 7 years, crypto was not that much famous, so people from that time zone must think of 21 million supply as a huge amount, while when I stepped into crypto, I thought this is not enough, because when I get to learn about blockchain and crypto technology, I realized, this is undervalued, we need more tokens, these tokens are not going to fulfil the need. But when I realized the total amount would be mined til 2140 then I calmed down, as Gen Z might not get to live till then.

Talking about sources, I found these two and they also suggest the same amount you have said.
https://support.river.com/kb/en/buying-selling-bitcoin-285917
https://fortune.com/crypto/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/
Well, the lost of some funds is beneficial for traders and holders, but no doubt it is sad that people lost there money. My cousin was a Software developer, and my Father, both spent time back in 2010 and mined BTC. But both did not took it seriously and now they have lost the keys, the hardware they used to mine, each and everything. Point is, there are numerous people who did the same.

[Google+]

I myself have lost some amount of Bitcoin few years ago and up to now Never that I will recover that and will be lost forever (just wanted to contribute from my own experience)
and also I believe that there will never be a legit details of how much bitcoin was lost , because even if the wallet is not moving for more than 10 years yet it may be an active wallet or sleeping one.

In the past, there were still many bitcoin wallets that were sometimes hacked and sometimes we forgot the secret code we had.
So the bitcoins you own are still intact in that wallet address, which is what causes bitcoins to run out because a lot of the supply is trapped in an old wallet that can no longer be accessed.