BTC Spot ETF is market poison?

[Stompix]

While I am really looking forward and highly expecting that once an ETF is approved by SEC, there will be a push for BTC to immediately get into a new ATH...but sadly my expectation never materialized as right now we are experiencing a big correction. So I am wondering...what is happening?

Bitcoin was at $15.4K per Btc in November, it hit 3x a few weeks ago, why?
Because the ETF positive news were already priced in, there was a schedule, there were already hundreds of things pointing that a rejection will not happen, there was a legal case that forced them to either say yes or no and there were little arguments for a no, so rather than looking at the 10% loss from  January 11th , better look at the 200% gain we had for no reason if we exclude the fomo about ETF that dominated all the news in the last three months!

And this will be the playbook for the halving also, too many area already treating the jump as aa set in stone event, there will be a lot of profit taking a lot of disappointed faces when they won't see lottery style in a year!

I now remember a remark made by Gary Gensler - a man I do not like heading SEC - and essentially he said that ETF is actually centralization...away from the main concept of Bitcoin which is decentralization.

Well, let's be honest about, if Butterin fart in his sleep tonight and wakes up scared of that you have ETH changed to POW next month!
Ethereum is centralized around him, there is no decentralization when nobody can go against one person's vote, no matter the size of the majority.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

While I am really looking forward and highly expecting that once an ETF is approved by SEC, there will be a push for BTC to immediately get into a new ATH...but sadly my expectation never materialized as right now we are experiencing a big correction. So I am wondering...what is happening?

Bitcoin was at $15.4K per Btc in November, it hit 3x a few weeks ago, why?
Because the ETF positive news were already priced in, there was a schedule, there were already hundreds of things pointing that a rejection will not happen, there was a legal case that forced them to either say yes or no and there were little arguments for a no, so rather than looking at the 10% loss from  January 11th , better look at the 200% gain we had for no reason if we exclude the fomo about ETF that dominated all the news in the last three months!

Well we cannot say that Bitcoin ETF has not brought in some significant change to the crypto market with it's effects more on bitcoin, this is because as we all expect to see the approval come through, the hopes on it begins to rise and that alone make the market speculations more unpredictable to the extent that we achieved that high after a long dip, it shouldn't be a surprise anymore to me about seing Bitcoin falling after the ETF approval.

[doc]

Well we cannot say that Bitcoin ETF has not brought in some significant change to the crypto market with it's effects more on bitcoin, this is because as we all expect to see the approval come through, the hopes on it begins to rise and that alone make the market speculations more unpredictable to the extent that we achieved that high after a long dip, it shouldn't be a surprise anymore to me about seing Bitcoin falling after the ETF approval.

I think ETF bitcoin don't have big effect to bitcoin price.
After ETF approved bitcoin goes down.
This seems strange,  Bitcoin should be going up but it's actually going down. 
Previously, people predicted that Bitcoin would rise after the ETF was approved, but it turned out to be the opposite.
I didn't surprise, because the character of bitcoin is unpredictable.

[yohananaomi]

I think ETF bitcoin don't have big effect to bitcoin price.
After ETF approved bitcoin goes down.
This seems strange,  Bitcoin should be going up but it's actually going down. 
Previously, people predicted that Bitcoin would rise after the ETF was approved, but it turned out to be the opposite.
I didn't surprise, because the character of bitcoin is unpredictable.

That's the reality of what happened. You were right after the ETF approval and earning a lot of bitcoin, and the price actually corrected. There seems to be a sense of concern from the market about this, and this is normal because every time there is a new development, it can have a negative or immediate positive impact; it just depends on the situation. But I believe that this situation is due to panic for just a moment; it is certain that later it will run well and will contribute to the increase in bitcoin. We wait patiently for this.

[MrSpasybo]

I think ETF bitcoin don't have big effect to bitcoin price.
After ETF approved bitcoin goes down.
This seems strange,  Bitcoin should be going up but it's actually going down. 
Previously, people predicted that Bitcoin would rise after the ETF was approved, but it turned out to be the opposite.
I didn't surprise, because the character of bitcoin is unpredictable.

That's the reality of what happened. You were right after the ETF approval and earning a lot of bitcoin, and the price actually corrected. There seems to be a sense of concern from the market about this, and this is normal because every time there is a new development, it can have a negative or immediate positive impact; it just depends on the situation. But I believe that this situation is due to panic for just a moment; it is certain that later it will run well and will contribute to the increase in bitcoin. We wait patiently for this.

I believe that from the perspective of BTC price, Spot ETF has a positive impact because it attracts more cash flow into this market. The recent correction is simply a short-term price decline, due to sell-the-news and repeated price behavior at Fibo 0.786 like the previous 3 recoveries. I am not surprised by this, I pay more attention to the mission of BTC created by Satoshi at the start of crypto era!

[NikeFit_7777]

I think ETF bitcoin don't have big effect to bitcoin price.
After ETF approved bitcoin goes down.
This seems strange,  Bitcoin should be going up but it's actually going down. 
Previously, people predicted that Bitcoin would rise after the ETF was approved, but it turned out to be the opposite.
I didn't surprise, because the character of bitcoin is unpredictable.

Exactly right, adopting a spot ETF is a gamble. It's normal for BTC to fall and then rise. Any asset does that. It's always the other way around. Just when everyone expects a miracle, often there is no miracle. It happens, it's normal. Do you think it won't happen with other ETFs? Yeah, sure. Again the SEC will manipulate, and in the aftermath, only make money off a deal like this. It's not the first time.

P.S. In the picture below, the rise in new BTC addresses indicates a growing wave of investor interest. That's just a statistic, how it really is, it's hard to say.

[Baofeng]

I think ETF bitcoin don't have big effect to bitcoin price.
After ETF approved bitcoin goes down.
This seems strange,  Bitcoin should be going up but it's actually going down. 
Previously, people predicted that Bitcoin would rise after the ETF was approved, but it turned out to be the opposite.
I didn't surprise, because the character of bitcoin is unpredictable.

That's the reality of what happened. You were right after the ETF approval and earning a lot of bitcoin, and the price actually corrected. There seems to be a sense of concern from the market about this, and this is normal because every time there is a new development, it can have a negative or immediate positive impact; it just depends on the situation. But I believe that this situation is due to panic for just a moment; it is certain that later it will run well and will contribute to the increase in bitcoin. We wait patiently for this.

I'm not sure what investors are going to panic and push the sell button because of the ETF approval, it's what the opposite that we are expecting? Nevertheless, it's amost end of the month, the market has rebounded @43,500.

But yes, patience indeed is needed right now. It's hard to predict the movement, and the effect to the market is too early to say. However, I think in the long run, it could be positive, specially right after the halving, the price could slowly growth because of the activity and the ETF approval.

[pakhitheboss]

Bitcoin was at $15.4K per Btc in November, it hit 3x a few weeks ago, why?
Because the ETF positive news were already priced in, there was a schedule, there were already hundreds of things pointing that a rejection will not happen, there was a legal case that forced them to either say yes or no and there were little arguments for a no, so rather than looking at the 10% loss from  January 11th , better look at the 200% gain we had for no reason if we exclude the fomo about ETF that dominated all the news in the last three months!

And this will be the playbook for the halving also, too many area already treating the jump as aa set in stone event, there will be a lot of profit taking a lot of disappointed faces when they won't see lottery style in a year!

A great insight and a good reply I do not understand the reason why after the ETF speculations were over, Bitcoin never made it to the moon or in simple words got the spike that everyone was expecting. If you know the reason then please do explain as it will help me understand the political urgency behind approving Bitcoin ETFs with minute changes by the SEC. Mind you the first Bitcoin ETF was filed in 2013 and it was straight forward rejected by SEC. So, what suddenly got changed?

[retreat]

I don't think that the Bitcoin ETF is poisoning the Bitcoin market, but it just makes the Bitcoin market become saturated and tends to be more volatile because too many people are speculating on it. Also, there is no need to worry too much about Bitcoin ETFs making people forget about Bitcoin, because Bitcoin will still be known by more people and there will be more adopters than there are now.
The point is how we as Bitcoin holders continue to educate people about Bitcoin and continue to strive for Bitcoin to be accessible to many people in the future.

[Stompix]

If you know the reason then please do explain as it will help me understand the political urgency behind approving Bitcoin ETFs with minute changes by the SEC. Mind you the first Bitcoin ETF was filed in 2013 and it was straight forward rejected by SEC. So, what suddenly got changed?

The SEC has a program on which it approves and evaluates ETF, from the initial submission it must act in 240 days, by either rejecting it or approving it, ARK had a filling in 2021, it was rejected multiple times and it reached another date (this January) when again a final decision was needed. Since the SEC was most likely going to approve it, it though just as everyone else that since the others are also going to be approved next months better to approve them all in one batch to not give just one of them a critical lead and distort the market.

So the urgency was basically not allowing one single entity to get a head start while the others had a delay!
At the same time it could not reject ARK and then approve the others based on the same principles in March, nor could they reject ARK now and then approve them in March as this rejection would have been final.

That's why almost everyone knew they would goin to get approval, and the reason why the market climbed!

[MrSpasybo]

I don't think that the Bitcoin ETF is poisoning the Bitcoin market, but it just makes the Bitcoin market become saturated and tends to be more volatile because too many people are speculating on it. Also, there is no need to worry too much about Bitcoin ETFs making people forget about Bitcoin, because Bitcoin will still be known by more people and there will be more adopters than there are now.
The point is how we as Bitcoin holders continue to educate people about Bitcoin and continue to strive for Bitcoin to be accessible to many people in the future.

Yeah, I also hope that the Bitcoin community will continue to promote and educate people about Bitcoin's mission instead of focusing on investing and seeking profits from financial instruments like BTC ETFs. Every event in this market has positive and negative effects, it would be good if we took advantage of the positive effects to protect the Bitcoin revolution.

Should we advise investors to buy their own and custodial BTC instead of buying the BTC Spot ETF? And do you think this is effective?

[yohananaomi]

That's the reality of what happened. You were right after the ETF approval and earning a lot of bitcoin, and the price actually corrected. There seems to be a sense of concern from the market about this, and this is normal because every time there is a new development, it can have a negative or immediate positive impact; it just depends on the situation. But I believe that this situation is due to panic for just a moment; it is certain that later it will run well and will contribute to the increase in bitcoin. We wait patiently for this.

I believe that from the perspective of BTC price, Spot ETF has a positive impact because it attracts more cash flow into this market. The recent correction is simply a short-term price decline, due to sell-the-news and repeated price behavior at Fibo 0.786 like the previous 3 recoveries. I am not surprised by this, I pay more attention to the mission of BTC created by Satoshi at the start of crypto era!

That's right, friend; however, in time, the ETF will make a very positive contribution and will give Bitcoin the ability to continue to develop and strengthen so that it can move better. Indeed, we just have to wait for the momentum to happen because there is always a process that must be gone through first, but we are optimistic that it will happen because what you say is true: that the BTC mission carried out by Satoshi has predicted everything.

[pakhitheboss]

The SEC has a program on which it approves and evaluates ETF, from the initial submission it must act in 240 days, by either rejecting it or approving it, ARK had a filling in 2021, it was rejected multiple times and it reached another date (this January) when again a final decision was needed. Since the SEC was most likely going to approve it, it though just as everyone else that since the others are also going to be approved next months better to approve them all in one batch to not give just one of them a critical lead and distort the market.

So the urgency was basically not allowing one single entity to get a head start while the others had a delay!
At the same time it could not reject ARK and then approve the others based on the same principles in March, nor could they reject ARK now and then approve them in March as this rejection would have been final.

That's why almost everyone knew they would goin to get approval, and the reason why the market climbed!

Understood and I do not disagree with your response, whereas I have a different understanding which you might call a rumor. In 2013 the first application for Bitcoin ETF was submitted to the SEC and as we know it was not approved. It took 11 years for the SEC to realize the importance of Bitcoin ETF and a day before the approval their x.com handle was hacked. Looks fishy to me as SEC is always promoting how to safeguard an account from getting hacked and they did not use 2FA to safeguard their handle.

Coming back to my analysis this is not about technicalities but it is about geopolitics.  De-dollarization is a term that you would have heard to and you know how it is slowly taking place. Another major thing that happened was that China successfully used its proxy control to become a hub of cryptocurrencies. In the meantime some Middle Eastern countries stopped accepting petrol dollars, I won't go into deep with it, but if you do a Google search you will find many links to those articles.

The US with its current debt and with de-dollarization surrounding it knows the USD will become more dysfunctional in the future and the only way to save its economy is to invest in a commodity that is not understood by any other governments of the world except a few. Their banking sector is the most vulnerable and we have already seen a few banks collapse last year. It now needs something new apart from the gold reserve it has to control the globe.

[Stompix]

Understood and I do not disagree with your response, whereas I have a different understanding which you might call a rumor. In 2013 the first application for Bitcoin ETF was submitted to the SEC and as we know it was not approved. It took 11 years for the SEC to realize the importance of Bitcoin ETF

There is nothing about importance in those decisions!
Blackrock has an ETF that tracks products which are used by people over 60+
https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/284218/ishares-ageing-population-ucits-etf?switchLocale=y&siteEntryPassthrough=true

The Fund seeks to track the performance of an index composed of developed and emerging market companies which are generating significant revenues from the growing needs of the world’s ageing population (defined as people aged 60 years and above).

There is a Global Gender Equality ETF
https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BDR5H412#overview

So nothing about the importance but more about how that ETF is run, the SEC doesn't care if you have an ETF on watching grass grow as long as you follow the rules.

De-dollarization is a term that you would have heard to and you know how it is slowly taking place.

De-dollarization is a myth regurgitated by russian and chinese propaganda.
To which currency is your payout tied both here and on BTT? $!!!!!!!
Show me one signature campaign that pays in chinese yuan, russian rubles, rupiah, rials and then talk about de-dollarization!

Oh, let's go to the shop on this forum:
https://www.altcoinstalks.com/index.php?topic=315406.0

$ is mentioned 40 times! How many times is the yuan or any other currency?
De-dollarization my ass!

In the meantime some Middle Eastern countries stopped accepting petrol dollars, I won't go into deep with it, but if you do a Google search you will find many links to those articles.

Do name them and it better not be Saudi Arabia or UAE cause their currency is pegged to the dollar! 

Another major thing that happened was that China successfully used its proxy control to become a hub of cryptocurrencies.

Most miners > US!
Most nodes > US!
Most LN nodes >US!
Most Bitcoin ATM > US!
Most shops accepting bitcoin > US!

Where's China on these?
Seriously, stop listening to fearmongering and look at FACTS!

[legend45]

Yeah, I also hope that the Bitcoin community will continue to promote and educate people about Bitcoin's mission instead of focusing on investing and seeking profits from financial instruments like BTC ETFs. Every event in this market has positive and negative effects, it would be good if we took advantage of the positive effects to protect the Bitcoin revolution.

Should we advise investors to buy their own and custodial BTC instead of buying the BTC Spot ETF? And do you think this is effective?

Yeah I think It's effective, ETF bitcoin is financial instruments that make invest bitcoin easily.
But If there is people said it poison, I don't think it's poison. But  ETF bitcoin will have good effect for bitcoin market. 
As you said we can continue to promote bitcoin and educate other. They can use ETF bitcoin too.