History repeats itself till it does so no more!

Bitcoin has broken all patterns to date and it will continue to do so, people clung to things live never going below the previous ATH, like no double  ATH during a cycle, no bull run before the halving, one has to understand that we had just three cycles, it's such a low pool of data that you can't draw patterns out of it!

Plus, there is the change in the economic environment, the ban in China, and the approval of Bitcoin ETF, how were those present in previous cycles, and furthermore, if there had been no halving, would that have meant no bull run? Of course not! Past experience means nothing, if suddenly the US would ban crypto due you think patterns will matter anymore? If China would say Bitoin is legal tomorrow won't we have a bull run prior to the expected date again? 
But most important of all, if everyone thinks that it will take 4 months for the bull run won't everyone just buy now and dump then, artificially creating and ending the bull run just because they think it should happen when it's all a matter of their own actions?

Current technical cycle-based analysts are quite confused because BTC has created a new history for itself: a new low below the previous cycle's peak, a new ATH before halving. Based on history and the belief that BTC price will repeat history, we have no basis for continuing to predict BTC price movements in this bullrun. The only thing I can think of is cyclicity: BTC has peaked in 2013 - 2017 - 2021, so I also expect the peak of this cycle to come in 2025.

Looking back in the past, facing BTC price volatility or rather the volatility of their account balances, investors are always confused because there are too many choices and we can always buy and sell easily 24/7. At the 2020-halving, we also had a new history when BTc price dropped sharply just before the halving, or many traders also doubted the ability of BTC price to continue to create new peaks as in the past. The boredom of cyclicity & the strangeness of new history, both make it difficult for investors to make decisions.

I think we don't need to focus on speculating future, we should continue to hold faith in the bullrun, while not forgetting to prepare for actions when the market has unusual fluctuations. I will still wait for BTC price to reach $150K-170K in 2025

Honestly speaking, I did some research on old coins, and I discovered that most of the old coins started when the intensity of the hype that they did before and the others that became their ATH was too much when they started to enter the crypto space, then when there was a massive drop in price and they were no longer able to reach or surpass their previous ATHs.

Although others continued to raise their tokens as time went by, others remained stagnant because they didn't do any innovation with their tokens, unlike ETH, which, even though it took a long time, the innovation was continuous.

Yeah, many old coins from bullrun 2017 emerged during the ICO wave and were able to easily raise hundreds of millions of $ and set truly impressive ATHs: NEO, EOS, TRX, BCH... However, the value they brought to users in terms of both utility and growth potential was negligible during bullrun 2021. The same could happen in this bullrun for old coins from the bullrun 2021: SOL, NEAR, FTM, UNI... They have huge communities, but whales typically want to choose new tokens to make it easier to accumulate tokens, manipulate prices, and generate as much profit as possible. Only a few old coins that are truly attractive in terms of community, cash flow, and new narrative continue to be chosen for pumping and stand out in this harsh crypto market.

I believe that when selecting tokens for their portfolios, investors should focus more on the profitability and growth potential of the ecosystem than on the age of the project and its token.

So far, it doesn't look like the US government is interested in going after Phoenix Wallet at all. This is simply a precautionary measure the team has taken in order to avoid the same fate as Samourai wallet. Whether or not that will actually work in the end is up for debate.

However, they would definitely like to pick off the crypto wallets from the app stores one by one if they could. As if anyone even stores large amounts of crypto in a mobile phone 

I am concerned about the allegations surrounding Phoenix Wallet and the implications for other crypto wallet applications and the development of the crypto market. I do not use Phoenix Wallet and am not aware of its differences from Trust, Coinbase, SafePal, Exodus... wallets. It seems that the US government is acting very hastily and causing crypto wallet services to be cautious. Acinq's Phoenix Wallet and zkSNACKs' Wasabi Wallet have announced early termination of service to US customers, which could just be the beginning of bigger problems in the future for crypto market. This could be the last dump before the bullrun officially starts.

The pump for these projects comes from the ease of promoting them. Solana is witnessing more momentum and memes are still attracting investors, but once this trend ends, we will see that the value of these projects will return to being very low, and some of them may have no value, so it is better for your investment in them to be limited or short-term.

We all know the predictable fate of most memecoins like these in the market. Thousands of memecoins have emerged, but only a few are still known today, such as DOGE, SHIB, AKITA, FLOKI, PEPE, BONK, and BOME. The remaining 99% have been forgotten after causing investors to lose money.

While the Solana ecosystem is growing strong, and I love its dynamic ecosystem, I won't touch memecoins right now, I'd rather buy SOL. Every my $ will be used to DCA into BTC and top ALTs. Memecoins will not have a chance to enter my portfolio before the market enters altseason.

I am HODLing not because I desire to;
I am HODLing because I have no knowledge how the charts work;
While the experts know when the price will fall and rise, they buy and sell respectively. But I hold on to my coins;
I refuse to sell cheap to them. I didn't sell cheap to them. I don't lose because I am HODLing;
An old but ever truest thread.

BTC halving has taken place, and even slightly experienced investors can easily recognize that the new bullrun has just begun and the crypto market will continue to grow well for the next 12-18 months. Holding may be a more correct decision than selling off and exiting the market. I am also holding and DCA BTC + ALTS, it is naive to sell tokens and be satisfied with the current profit.

In some cases, I also want to trade to optimize profits or the number of tokens in the account, but the boring sideways movement of the BTC price and the entire crypto market right now does not make me feel comfortable with my decision. Better traders will trade, while I will only continue to focus on DCA & Hold while waiting for the BTC price ATH of the entire cycle.

Tuy nhiên, xu hướng tăng trưởng lớn hơn có thể sớm tiếp tục khi các nhà phân tích kỳ vọng thông báo tái cấp vốn hàng quý (QRA) vào tuần tới từ Bộ trưởng Tài chính Hoa Kỳ Janet Yellen sẽ đưa ra biện pháp cứu trợ cho các loại tài sản rủi ro.

Thông báo nêu chi tiết về nhu cầu vay vốn trong ba tháng của chính phủ Hoa Kỳ, đã trở thành vấn đề then chốt trong thế giới hậu Covid 19 với khoản nợ kỷ lục, lạm phát và lãi suất tăng cao. Thông báo cũng tiết lộ quy mô và thời gian phát hành trái phiếu, cũng như số dư được giữ trong Tài khoản chung của Kho bạc (TGA).

Đây cũng là một trong những cách mà chính phủ Hoa Kỳ có thể sử dụng để thúc đẩy nền kinh tế, giúp cho nền kinh tế không đi vào suy thoái mà chưa phải nhờ đến quyết định giảm lãi suất của FED trong bối cảnh lạm phát trở lại vì sự tăng giá của dầu do chiến sự. Mình cũng không thực sự hiểu tác động của điều này, nhưng chỉ cần có dòng tiền lớn đổ vào nền kinh tế, bao gồm cả crypto thì thị trường crypto cũng sẽ tăng trưởng và mang lại lợi nhuận cho nhà đầu tư.

Mình mong rằng trong thời gian tới, khả năng này sẽ được xem xét và đánh giá một cách đầy đủ bởi những chuyên gia trong thị trường tài chính, bởi không có giải pháp này là toàn diện, nếu có thì nó đã được áp dụng từ lâu. Nhất định nó phải có một nhược điểm chí mạng nào đó về nguồn vốn, rủi ro hoặc sự đồng thuận mang tính chính trị mà chúng ta chưa thể nào hình dung hết được.

Theo Biểu đồ cầu vồng Bitcoin, mức giá hiện tại của BTC nằm trong vùng “tích lũy”.

Biểu đồ cầu vồng Bitcoin thể hiện trực quan việc định giá Bitcoin dựa trên dữ liệu trong quá khứ. Nó là thang đo logarit bao gồm các dải màu hiển thị vùng mua (xanh dương, xanh lá cây) và bán (cam, vàng).

Trong ba chu kỳ halving vừa qua, BTC đã bị định giá thấp ngay sau khi halving. Mặc dù mức giá BTC hiện tại cao hơn một chút so với các chu kỳ trước nhưng nó vẫn nằm trong vùng “tích lũy”.

Mô hình cầu vồng này theo hướng Log-Log, được Harold đề xuất từ năm 2019 và được hoàn thiện đến hiện tại, những dự đoán của nó cũng khá thú vị dù không hẳn luôn chính xác trong quá khứ. Mình mong rằng nó sẽ có giá trị nhất định tính đến hiện tại, nghĩa là dữ liệu đã đủ để có thể dự đoán chính xác trạng thái và vị trí của thị trường cũng như tiềm năng tăng giá trong tương lai.

Mình cho rằng lần này chúng ta sẽ phải thêm lần nữa thất vọng với mô hình cầu vồng được trình bày theo cách này: chúng ta sẽ có mà thấy được BTC đạt $450K trong mùa này. Mình chỉ dám chờ đợi $150K-170K hoặc cao hơn thì sẽ là $250K trong chu trình này, trước khi BTC đảo chiều và đưa toàn bộ thị trường crypto vào mùa đông cực kỳ khắc nghiệt.

100$ for ripple may take a long time to get there after the case with SEC . Even though XRP wins the case, it doesn't guarantee that XRP will recover its price quickly, everything needs a process, we can invest in XRP if the money we are going to invest is truly free money.

I have XRP in my portfolio for this bullrun because I believe Ripple will not abandon XRP. After winning the lawsuit with the SEC, Ripple can focus on developing the project, and pumping the XRP token price is an important part of marketing to attract more investors and users in the crypto market, as well as potential partners in the banking sector.

Anyway, this is just my personal expectation as I see the Ripple team appearing in the media, Ripple self-deploying its own stablecoin, and they also want to use Spot ETFs to bring the XRP token back into the price and market capitalization race. I look forward to the impressive growth of the XRP token in this bullrun, as happened in the bullrun 2017.