History repeats itself till it does so no more!
Bitcoin has broken all patterns to date and it will continue to do so, people clung to things live never going below the previous ATH, like no double ATH during a cycle, no bull run before the halving, one has to understand that we had just three cycles, it's such a low pool of data that you can't draw patterns out of it!
Plus, there is the change in the economic environment, the ban in China, and the approval of Bitcoin ETF, how were those present in previous cycles, and furthermore, if there had been no halving, would that have meant no bull run? Of course not! Past experience means nothing, if suddenly the US would ban crypto due you think patterns will matter anymore? If China would say Bitoin is legal tomorrow won't we have a bull run prior to the expected date again?
But most important of all, if everyone thinks that it will take 4 months for the bull run won't everyone just buy now and dump then, artificially creating and ending the bull run just because they think it should happen when it's all a matter of their own actions?