Why Bitcoin Could Rally on a U.S. Federal Holiday With Stock Market Shut

May 23, 2020

This weekend and on Monday, trading desks across the stock market and other traditional markets will be shut down. But Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market never stops.

With the stock market closed, less to do, and traditional celebrations next to impossible due to lockdown conditions, it could keep more traders at home, driving an increase in interest in Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

Stock Markets Close For Memorial Day Weekend, But Crypto Never Sleeps
This coming Monday, and all throughout the weekend, the United States will celebrate the Memorial Day holiday and pay respects and remember those brave military personal who lost their lives fighting for freedom.

Out of respect also, and to give traders a break from the tense, shark-infested markets to celebrate with family members, many traditional markets close for the long, three-day holiday weekend.

Related Reading | Research Shows That Holidays Cause FOMO Fireworks in Bitcoin Price Charts

The pandemic boredom has left individuals with time on their hands, and the allure of extreme volatility and therefore profits have caused a massive spike in new trader registrations amongst millennials.

The lockdown conditions caused by the pandemic means that there will be fewer parades, fewer celebrations and gatherings, and fewer home barbecues. This leaves traders with more time on their hands over the weekend to trade, but only the cryptocurrency market is open.

The only action taking place this weekend will exist for Bitcoin and altcoin traders.

More Past Memorial Days Have Pumped Than Dumped
Bitcoin also has some of the most volatile price action over weekends, due to lower liquidity. Data has also shown in the past that holidays are often associated with Bitcoin FOMO.

The last several years’ worth of Memorial Days have been highlighted on the below chart.

bitcoin memorial day weekend crypto stock

Starting in Memorial Day 2017, Bitcoin saw a strong drop but later rose roughly $2,000 to $20,000 in the months ahead that year.

In 2018, Bitcoin some temporary upside before a bigger drop and bottoming formation was attempted.

Related Reading | Sell in May and Go Away? A Look At Historic Bitcoin Price Performance in May

Next, in 2019, Bitcoin price was trading at the same exact price level as it is currently – a whole year later. After a short-lived dip, the cryptocurrency rocketed to $14,000. Could the same thing happen following the price action this weekend?

The data set is small, and there’s no real rhyme or reason to if, why, or when Bitcoin pumps during holidays or after. The small set of data has shown more upside than downside following each Memorial Day weekend – but what will happen this weekend across the crypto market?

https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/05/22/bitcoin-memorial-day-stock-market/

Bitcoin Pizza Day: Why Bitcoiners Are Celebrating Today By Eating Pizza
Colin Harper
Colin HarperContributor
Crypto & Blockchain

May 22, 2020

I'm a freelance journalist from Nashville who covers Bitcoin, privacy tech, the debt bubble, and things like that.
Today, Bitcoiners all over the world are eating pizza—in offices, on couches, at their apartments and their houses. They’re not doing this because pizza is delicious. They are doing it because it’s a tradition, one that dates back to May 22, 2010, when one man made history by making the first “real world” purchase with bitcoin.

The Man Behind The Pizza
Ten years ago, a Floridian man named Laszlo Hanyecz, decided that he wanted a free lunch.

The young programmer was an early contributor to Bitcoin’s software when it was barely one year old. An active member of an even more niche community then, Hanyecz actually advanced Bitcoin mining in a significant way. He coded a program that made it possible for miners to mine Bitcoin using their computer’s graphics cards (GPUs), a more powerful method than using a computer processor (CPU), the original means of mining Bitcoin.

This was the first shell to drop in what would become an ever-increasing arms race for hash power on the Bitcoin network (what started with more powerful mining rigs with GPU mining would culminate in the massive, ASIC miner packed warehouse that dominate the mining industry today).

But most people don’t remember Hanyecz for his contribution to Bitcoin mining. They remember him for what his mining activity allowed him to do: purchase pizza with bitcoin.

The Million Dollar Pizza
“I'll pay 10,000 bitcoins for a couple of pizzas ... maybe 2 large ones so I have some left over for the next day,” Hanyecz solicited Bitcointalk, a Bitcoin-focused forum founded by the coin’s creator that was a watering-hole for discussion in the protean days of Bitcoin’s development.

One other Bitcointalk user, jercos, was interested and agreed: Hanyecz would pay him 10,000 bitcoin and he would order two large supreme pizzas for the Floridian.

One user cautioned, perhaps a bit poignantly in hindsight, that 10,000 bitcoin “is quite a lot,” or around $41 on one of Bitcoin’s first (and now defunct) trading hubs.

As Hanyecz told me a year ago over the phone, the price on some trading forum made little difference to him. After all, this was the dude who invented GPU mining; he was eating a meal he paid for with internet currency he generated by idling his home desktop.

In his mind, this wasn’t paying for anything; this was a free lunch.

“I wanted to do the pizza thing because to me it was free pizza,” Hanyecz explained. “I mean, I coded this thing and mined bitcoin and I felt like I was winning the internet that day. I got pizza for contributing to an open-source project. Usually hobbies are a time sink and money sink, and in this case, my hobby bought me dinner.”

“I was like, ‘Man, I got these GPUs linked together, now I’m going to mine twice as fast. I’m just going to be eating free food; I’ll never have to buy food again.’”

While the first transaction was completed on May 22, Hanyecz would go on to do it 9 or so more times and spend a total of 100,000 bitcoin on pizza that summer. He has to stop in August, though, because the network was getting more popular so he couldn’t “generate thousands of coins a day anymore,” according to a post in the original pizza thread.

The Legend
It wouldn’t take long before Laszlo’s decision would become a point of great intrigue within the Bitcoin community. Not six months later, one precocious Bitcointalk user on the same thread would ask, “Will this eventually become the world's first million-dollar pizza?”

The answer, of course, is yes—multiple times over. The 100,000 bitcoin Hanyecz spent on pizza in 2010 is worth $900,000,000 at the time of publication and was worth $2,000,000,000 at Bitcoin’s all time high.

This story, of course, has become a bedrock of the Bitcoin community’s lore. If you visit Hanyecz’s Bitcointalk post, for instance, you’ll see that it has been spun into a 70+ page lexicon of exclamations and reactions to the legendary pizza transaction’s rising price over the years.

Some of you may have known of this story already from this 60 Minutes episode, or from any of the many articles that mainstream and crypto media alike churn out at this time of year. Indeed, Bitcoin Pizza day has become a scandalous gaff to even those outside of Bitcoin.

The usual refrain goes something like, “Could you imagine being that dude who bought the pizza for 10,000 bitcoin? I bet he wants to kill himself lol.”

On the contrary, by the looks of last year’s 60 Minutes interview, he’s doing just fine. And besides, this facile perspective fails to acknowledge the basic fact that anyone at this point in time could have bought or mined bitcoin—so really, by this logic, everyone who didn’t acquire and hold bitcoin from 2010 on missed out on life-changing wealth.

But the mainstream “missed-out-on-millions” take also ignores the crucial other side of the story that we addressed here: that Hanyecz invented a more efficient way to mine bitcoin, so his surplus made the transaction a no brainer.

The slice was no more expensive then than anything else he could have purchased at that time; he just happened to do it in bitcoin. The gesture itself is worth a million dollars considering how fringe Bitcoin was, and yet, all we focus on is how much those bitcoin would be worth today.

Would we be doing the same if he used dollars? Probably not, but maybe we should. The cash used to purchase the pizzas has lost roughly 20% of its value over the decade, meaning it would cost about $6 more to buy the same amount of pizza today.

With the dollar’s decaying in mind, actually, maybe focusing on how much that 10,000 bitcoin would be worth today (when compared to the dollar) isn’t such a bad thing after all.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/colinharper/2020/05/22/bitcoin-pizza-day-why-bitcoiners-are-celebrating-today-by-eating-pizza/#3e5ceeb5356a

3 Bitcoin Price Metrics Just Converged — A Bull Run Has Always Followed

May 22, 2020

A basket of one quant analyst’s favorite metrics is still overly bullish, casting aside this week’s Bitcoin price drop.

Three new Bitcoin (BTC) metrics are pointing to the sky despite $10,000 staying out of reach for BTC/USD this week.

As revealed by Timothy Peterson of asset manager Cane Island Alternative Advisors, as of May 21, the largest cryptocurrency was still firmly bullish according to the three metrics that he personally uses.

200-day moving average, Metcalfe and lowest price forward
“I track 3 #bitcoin metrics:  Metcalfe value, lowest price forward, and 200-day moving average,” he wrote on Twitter.

Apr 29th was only the 4th time in history they converged. The prior 3 were followed by a substantial uptrend in price.

Tracking the basket back several years, the previous convergence occurred just before Bitcoin’s bull run which began in April 2019.

As Cointelegraph reported, the 200-day moving average has often played a role in determining long-term support and resistance levels for the price. It currently sits at $8,000.

Bitcoin’s Metcalfe value is a more complex quant calculation, something on which Peterson wrote a dedicated guide due to its implications.

“Bitcoin’s price provides a transparent look at Metcalfe’s law at work,” he summarized at the time.

Meanwhile, the lowest price forward, formerly known as “never look back,” predicts a minimum value for BTC/USD on a given date. In April, Peterson noted that the value for December 31, 2020, was $10,400, identical to the Metcalfe value reading.

All going according to PlanB
Quant analysts have broadly shrugged off suggestions that Bitcoin is taking a hit from its third block subsidy halving earlier this month.

A price dip occurred days before the event, followed by a recovery and then a less substantial lowering through this week.

Regardless, the Bitcoin price is still well within the range of the stock-to-flow price model, perhaps the best-known quant tool among regular Bitcoiners.

PlanB, its creator, has demonstrated that a price of $288,000 following the halving is not unrealistic, and even double that is a possibility during the four years until the next halving.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-bitcoin-price-metrics-just-converged-a-bull-run-has-always-followed

3 Bitcoin Price Metrics Just Converged — A Bull Run Has Always Followed

May 22, 2020

A basket of one quant analyst’s favorite metrics is still overly bullish, casting aside this week’s Bitcoin price drop.

Three new Bitcoin (BTC) metrics are pointing to the sky despite $10,000 staying out of reach for BTC/USD this week.

As revealed by Timothy Peterson of asset manager Cane Island Alternative Advisors, as of May 21, the largest cryptocurrency was still firmly bullish according to the three metrics that he personally uses.

200-day moving average, Metcalfe and lowest price forward
“I track 3 #bitcoin metrics:  Metcalfe value, lowest price forward, and 200-day moving average,” he wrote on Twitter.

Apr 29th was only the 4th time in history they converged. The prior 3 were followed by a substantial uptrend in price.

Tracking the basket back several years, the previous convergence occurred just before Bitcoin’s bull run which began in April 2019.

As Cointelegraph reported, the 200-day moving average has often played a role in determining long-term support and resistance levels for the price. It currently sits at $8,000.

Bitcoin’s Metcalfe value is a more complex quant calculation, something on which Peterson wrote a dedicated guide due to its implications.

“Bitcoin’s price provides a transparent look at Metcalfe’s law at work,” he summarized at the time.

Meanwhile, the lowest price forward, formerly known as “never look back,” predicts a minimum value for BTC/USD on a given date. In April, Peterson noted that the value for December 31, 2020, was $10,400, identical to the Metcalfe value reading.

All going according to PlanB
Quant analysts have broadly shrugged off suggestions that Bitcoin is taking a hit from its third block subsidy halving earlier this month.

A price dip occurred days before the event, followed by a recovery and then a less substantial lowering through this week.

Regardless, the Bitcoin price is still well within the range of the stock-to-flow price model, perhaps the best-known quant tool among regular Bitcoiners.

PlanB, its creator, has demonstrated that a price of $288,000 following the halving is not unrealistic, and even double that is a possibility during the four years until the next halving.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-bitcoin-price-metrics-just-converged-a-bull-run-has-always-followed

Crypto Traders Explain Where Bitcoin Price Can Go After Fifth $10K Test in 11 Days
The price of Bitcoin continues to reject the $10,000 resistance level, crypto traders explain where BTC is headed next.

May 19, 2020

Crypto Traders Explain Where Bitcoin Price Can Go After Fifth $10K Test in 11 DaysANALYSIS


The price of Bitcoin (BTC) tested $10,000 a total of five times in the past 11 days. The price action can be considered as a bullish or a bearish trend based on varying perspectives. The quintuple test of a key psychological level at $10,000 can be analyzed in two ways: The $10,000 resistance level is getting weakened with every test, or the resistance is so strong that buyers are not able to break out of it.

Many top crypto traders believe that the mid-$9,000 area is a starting point to a new extended rally to the $14,000-to-$15,000 resistance range and with $20,000 as a medium-term target. Others foresee a sizable pullback to the $7,000-to-$8,000 region first, before Bitcoin’s price can aim for $14,000 and then attempt to break the record high.

The short-term, bullish scenario for Bitcoin
Traders who expect the price of Bitcoin to reclaim the $10,000 resistance level as support and see a rally to key levels above it predict that the resistance area was weakened with multiple spikes to the $9,800-to-$9,900 range.

Traders continue to debate whether the current price trend of Bitcoin the start of a bullish uptrend following the highly anticipated block reward halving on May 11. Fundamentally, the block reward halving is a highly optimistic event for Bitcoin’s price because it directly affects the supply of BTC, as it halves the amount of Bitcoin mined, decreasing the rate, at which new BTC is produced and, subsequently, how much is sold on the market.

Historically, the halvings of 2012 and 2016 both resulted in at least a 2,500% increase in price. Hence, the bullish trajectory of BTC is that the halving will push the price of Bitcoin forward in both the short-term and the long-term.

According to cryptocurrency researcher Philip Swift, an indicator called the 2-Year Moving Average Multiplier shows BTC reached its bottom at $3,600 and broke out of a multi-year trendline at $5,800. At a macro level and in a more long-term scenario, Swift noted that the indicator suggests the next reasonable target for BTC is the all-time high of $20,000. Swift tweeted:

“$BTC has been super bullish since it broke out above the 2yr MA. We got our chance to accumulate below it b4 the hedge fund guys got all excited about Bitcoin. Next stop now the 2yrMA x5 [over $20,000].”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-traders-explain-where-bitcoin-price-can-go-after-fifth-10k-test-in-11-days

Visa Files Patent for Cryptocurrency System to Replace Cash

May 14, 2020

Visa International has filed for a cryptocurrency system patent that is meant to replace physical currency. The system, which utilizes both central banks and commercial banks, leverages a private blockchain to improve the payment ecosystem.

Visa’s Cryptocurrency Patent Filing
The United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) published on Thursday a patent application entitled “digital fiat currency,” filed by Visa International Service Association on Nov. 8, 2019.

Visa Files Patent for Cryptocurrency System to Replace Cash
The USPTO published Visa’s patent application for “digital fiat currency” on May 14; it was filed on Nov. 8, 2019. Source: Visa’s crypto patent filing with the USPTO.

The filing is for a fiat-linked cryptocurrency system using “a private permissioned distributed ledger platform.” It describes a central computer, its responsibilities, and key roles of the system: central entities, validating entities, redeeming entities, and users. “A central entity may be a central bank, which regulates a monetary supply,” the document details. Validating entities “are blockchain nodes, which may be peers such as banks.” Redeeming entities “may accept physical currency for exchange for digital fiat currency,” such as an ATM or a bank branch location.

The central entity computer generates the digital currency that is recorded on a blockchain and “may determine that a particular digital currency unit should be added to or removed from the blockchain.” According to the filing’s abstract:

The central entity computer causes removal of the physical currency from circulation in a fiat currency system.

The filing further explains that the payment ecosystem may become 100% digital and “cash may be removed from the markets in a frictionless manner” to improve the payment ecosystem. “Users may hold digital currency with the same denomination as the local physical currency.”

It also notes that once the digital fiat currency is issued, “A user or bank may transfer the digital currency from wallet to wallet or store the digital currency on a smart card and transfer the smart card to another entity.”

A consensus mechanism has not been chosen for the system’s blockchain. “The consensus mechanism may vary depending on the protocol implemented. Some example consensus mechanisms … are proof of stake, Byzantine fault-tolerant algorithms, and crash-fault tolerant algorithms,” the filing details. Other mechanisms explored include a copy of Ethereum, Hyperledger Fabric, and zero-knowledge proofs. The full filing can be found here.

A Visa spokesperson was quoted by Forbes on Thursday as saying: “Each year we seek patents for hundreds of new ideas … While not all patents will result in new products or features, Visa respects intellectual property and we are actively working to protect our ecosystem, our innovations and the Visa brand.” Commenting on Visa’s cryptocurrency patent filing, lawyer Jake Chervinsky tweeted:

You can’t patent something you didn’t invent or that isn’t new, so Visa’s patent application has to be so narrow that even if it issues, it won’t be much use even if it was enforceable. Finance incumbents won’t be able to use patent law to stop the crypto industry.

Other companies have tried to patent various cryptocurrency systems. For example, Microsoft was recently granted an international patent by the World Intellectual Property Organization for a cryptocurrency system using body activity data.

https://news.bitcoin.com/visa-cryptocurrency-system/

Visa Files Patent for Cryptocurrency System to Replace Cash

May 14, 2020

Visa International has filed for a cryptocurrency system patent that is meant to replace physical currency. The system, which utilizes both central banks and commercial banks, leverages a private blockchain to improve the payment ecosystem.

Visa’s Cryptocurrency Patent Filing
The United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) published on Thursday a patent application entitled “digital fiat currency,” filed by Visa International Service Association on Nov. 8, 2019.

Visa Files Patent for Cryptocurrency System to Replace Cash
The USPTO published Visa’s patent application for “digital fiat currency” on May 14; it was filed on Nov. 8, 2019. Source: Visa’s crypto patent filing with the USPTO.

The filing is for a fiat-linked cryptocurrency system using “a private permissioned distributed ledger platform.” It describes a central computer, its responsibilities, and key roles of the system: central entities, validating entities, redeeming entities, and users. “A central entity may be a central bank, which regulates a monetary supply,” the document details. Validating entities “are blockchain nodes, which may be peers such as banks.” Redeeming entities “may accept physical currency for exchange for digital fiat currency,” such as an ATM or a bank branch location.

The central entity computer generates the digital currency that is recorded on a blockchain and “may determine that a particular digital currency unit should be added to or removed from the blockchain.” According to the filing’s abstract:

The central entity computer causes removal of the physical currency from circulation in a fiat currency system.

The filing further explains that the payment ecosystem may become 100% digital and “cash may be removed from the markets in a frictionless manner” to improve the payment ecosystem. “Users may hold digital currency with the same denomination as the local physical currency.”

It also notes that once the digital fiat currency is issued, “A user or bank may transfer the digital currency from wallet to wallet or store the digital currency on a smart card and transfer the smart card to another entity.”

A consensus mechanism has not been chosen for the system’s blockchain. “The consensus mechanism may vary depending on the protocol implemented. Some example consensus mechanisms … are proof of stake, Byzantine fault-tolerant algorithms, and crash-fault tolerant algorithms,” the filing details. Other mechanisms explored include a copy of Ethereum, Hyperledger Fabric, and zero-knowledge proofs. The full filing can be found here.

A Visa spokesperson was quoted by Forbes on Thursday as saying: “Each year we seek patents for hundreds of new ideas … While not all patents will result in new products or features, Visa respects intellectual property and we are actively working to protect our ecosystem, our innovations and the Visa brand.” Commenting on Visa’s cryptocurrency patent filing, lawyer Jake Chervinsky tweeted:

You can’t patent something you didn’t invent or that isn’t new, so Visa’s patent application has to be so narrow that even if it issues, it won’t be much use even if it was enforceable. Finance incumbents won’t be able to use patent law to stop the crypto industry.

Other companies have tried to patent various cryptocurrency systems. For example, Microsoft was recently granted an international patent by the World Intellectual Property Organization for a cryptocurrency system using body activity data.

https://news.bitcoin.com/visa-cryptocurrency-system/