Are you worried about the US Government moving BTC?

[KryptoBull]

BTC is no longer just a new asset in the financial market, BTC has been widely accepted and entered national reserves. Currently, the US holds 207,189 BTC^[1] seized from criminals. At the present time, this amount of BTC is worth about 14B USD, a huge amount of money, making the US government the independent entity holding the most BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy with 193K BTC. And we can consider the US government as a big whale in the market, as each of its actions can create waves for the crypto market.

The US government recently made headlines in the crypto world by transferring 15085 BTC ~ 922M USD. This move coincided with the time BTC reached 60K USD, raising speculation about the US government's profit-taking strategy^[2].

The last time, in July 2023, the US government transferred 9800 BTC ~ 300M USD and then we saw an 18% decline in BTC price from 30K USD to 25K USD^[3]. This time, the community is also worried even though the BTC price has reached 68.5K BTC and is approaching ATH 2021.

Personally, I believe that the US government has a reason to take profits because they do not need to prove diamond hands. Their purpose is just to effectively handle the assets confiscated from criminals. The current price of BTC is attractive enough for them to sell and add to the national budget.

At the same time, I also believe that with the positivity in price fluctuations and the optimism of investor sentiment, this liquidation worth 1B USD from the US government will not cause any negative impact on the increasing momentum of BTC price as well as the crypto market. FTX sold 1B USD worth of GBTC in January^[4] and Genesis is selling 1.3B USD worth of GBTC ^[5] also with no significant impact on BTC price. Therefore, I believe that in the context of the market being extremely excited and the daily BTC trading volume reaching up to 70B USD, the selling force of 1B USD from the US government, if any, is not worth our concern.

I would like to know your views on the possibility of selling 1B USD worth of BTC from the US government:

• Do you think the US government is about to sell 15,085 BTC?
• Will this event have a negative impact on BTC and the entire crypto market?
• Are you worried and changed your investment strategy because of this event?

References:
[1] Countries & Governments that Own Bitcoin
[2] US gov’t moved $922 million of seized Bitcoin after BTC price broke $60,000
[3] US Government Transfers $300 Million Worth of Seized Silk Road Bitcoins
[4] FTX Sold About $1B of Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF, Explaining Much of Outflow: Sources
[5] Genesis Cleared to Sell GBTC Shares Worth $1.3 Billion
Note:

• My opinion was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
• I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
• I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread ^{if necessary}.

Update 2024.04.03:
In a major cryptocurrency move, the U.S. government transferred 30,175 bitcoins (valued at around $2 billion) to a wallet associated with Coinbase.

• U.S. Government Moves $2 Billion in Bitcoin to Coinbase, Impacting Market

[TomPluz]

Generally, I am not worried a bit with the US government selling their Bitcoin portfolio...in fact I think this is the best time for the government to sell them all so they will not anymore be a "whale" that can manipulate the price of BTC in the market. Why am I not worried? Because there is now a supply crisis with Bitcoin. Buyers will soon be complaining that they have no BTC to buy as surely the demand will continue to surge while sellers will be shrinking.

1. Do you think the US government is about to sell 15,085 BTC?
I think they should as the price is really great. The government actually never invested any money with the BTC they are holding. This is the right timing as the market can easily absorb even all the Bitcoin they are holding.

2. Will this event have a negative impact on BTC and the entire crypto market?
There can be a slight correction that can happen in case the government will finally let go a green light to sell a part of its BTC holding but eventually Bitcoin will bounce back with even bigger vengeance. Soon, a new ATH will be made by Bitcoin and this is going to be a big history...and there can be a fuel for more towards the $100K zone.

3. Are you worried and changed your investment strategy because of this event?
No, there is no need for that. Instead, one must do is to do nothing. Unless, of course, if one is trading because that can be a different story. For other people, just like me, who are simply holders, we should just watch and see the numbers for Bitcoin go up, up and away. Still, though, we must be aware of things and be watchful for developments.

[MrSpasybo]

At the same time, I also believe that with the positivity in price fluctuations and the optimism of investor sentiment, this liquidation worth 1B USD from the US government will not cause any negative impact on the increasing momentum of BTC price as well as the crypto market. FTX sold 1B USD worth of GBTC in January^[4] and Genesis is selling 1.3B USD worth of GBTC ^[5] also with no significant impact on BTC price. Therefore, I believe that in the context of the market being extremely excited and the daily BTC trading volume reaching up to 70B USD, the selling force of 1B USD from the US government, if any, is not worth our concern.

I would like to know your views on the possibility of selling 1B USD worth of BTC from the US government:

• Do you think the US government is about to sell 15,085 BTC?
• Will this event have a negative impact on BTC and the entire crypto market?
• Are you worried and changed your investment strategy because of this event?

1. These BTC are  national asset. If it is not absolutely necessary, the US government will not move BTC for fun. Their behavior of moving BTC is also very cautious: try transferring 1 BTC and then transfer the remaining amount to ensure safety. That shows everything is done thoughtfully with a clear purpose.

2. As topic owner stated, we are seeing an active market with $70B in volume per day for only BTC, this good liquidity is enough to ensure that BTC price will not be pushed down too much by selling pressure from $1B worth of BTC. The US is also the market with the best liquidity in the world, I believe that BTC and the crypto market will be safe.

3. I will continue to DCA BTC until halving, then will spend part of my capital to DCA a few more Altcoins. This plan remains unchanged, whether FTX, Genesis or the US government sells their BTC 

[bitmover]

BTC is no longer just a new asset in the financial market, BTC has been widely accepted and entered national reserves. Currently, the US holds 207,189 BTC^[1] seized from criminals. At the present time, this amount of BTC is worth about 14B USD, a huge amount of money, making the US government the independent entity holding the most BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy with 193K BTC. And we can consider the US government as a big whale in the market, as each of its actions can create waves for the crypto market.

Nothing to worry about in my opinion.
Us government is just one more big player, a big whale

It can dump its coins , but this won't make a difference in the long run

Even USA tried to attack the network, like performing a 51% attack  , it would cost trillions of dollars and black-outs due to high energy cost.

Bitcoin is highly resistant to that continental attack.

[KryptoBull]

Generally, I am not worried a bit with the US government selling their Bitcoin portfolio...in fact I think this is the best time for the government to sell them all so they will not anymore be a "whale" that can manipulate the price of BTC in the market. Why am I not worried? Because there is now a supply crisis with Bitcoin. Buyers will soon be complaining that they have no BTC to buy as surely the demand will continue to surge while sellers will be shrinking.

1. Do you think the US government is about to sell 15,085 BTC?
I think they should as the price is really great. The government actually never invested any money with the BTC they are holding. This is the right timing as the market can easily absorb even all the Bitcoin they are holding.

2. Will this event have a negative impact on BTC and the entire crypto market?
There can be a slight correction that can happen in case the government will finally let go a green light to sell a part of its BTC holding but eventually Bitcoin will bounce back with even bigger vengeance. Soon, a new ATH will be made by Bitcoin and this is going to be a big history...and there can be a fuel for more towards the $100K zone.

3. Are you worried and changed your investment strategy because of this event?
No, there is no need for that. Instead, one must do is to do nothing. Unless, of course, if one is trading because that can be a different story. For other people, just like me, who are simply holders, we should just watch and see the numbers for Bitcoin go up, up and away. Still, though, we must be aware of things and be watchful for developments.

I like your idea, maybe things would be better if the US government sold all their BTC and was no longer a worry to the market every time they moved BTC. However, I really think that if they sell all of the 200K+ BTC ~ 14B USD right now, the market could suffer a very negative impact, even BTC will need to re-accumulate for many more months to return to the growth trend instead of approaching 100K USD as we expect.

1. These BTC are  national asset. If it is not absolutely necessary, the US government will not move BTC for fun. Their behavior of moving BTC is also very cautious: try transferring 1 BTC and then transfer the remaining amount to ensure safety. That shows everything is done thoughtfully with a clear purpose.

2. As topic owner stated, we are seeing an active market with $70B in volume per day for only BTC, this good liquidity is enough to ensure that BTC price will not be pushed down too much by selling pressure from $1B worth of BTC. The US is also the market with the best liquidity in the world, I believe that BTC and the crypto market will be safe.

3. I will continue to DCA BTC until halving, then will spend part of my capital to DCA a few more Altcoins. This plan remains unchanged, whether FTX, Genesis or the US government sells their BTC 

Maybe right now they are selling BTC cleverly so as not to negatively affect the BTC price. We have seen BTC's quick recovery after retesting $59K. The market is still very positive and investors do not seem to be concerned or worried about this event. I hope that this is a good opportunity for Altcoins to get new cash flow and grow well, catching up with BTC's price performance.

[Faisal2202]

• Do you think the US government is about to sell 15,085 BTC?
• Will this event have a negative impact on BTC and the entire crypto market?
• Are you worried and changed your investment strategy because of this event?

1. Of course they will sell these BTC, but why would they not, they are making a good profit, and according to law, if these funds are seized then there must be some timeline for the authorities to clear these funds. And considering that, I don't think they have the luxury to wait for a better price to sell the BTC.
2. I don't think this event will have negative impact on BTC, because currently the market is so soaking, and I think this amount will be soaked by the consumers as well, as new comers are mostly newbies, and buying BTC, plus there are ETFs not, market has expanded, and there is a chance that, these 11 ETFs might buy these BTC via OTC, if they did then we might not see any dump as well.
3. Nah, I did not know about this until this post, and my strategy remain the same.

[yahoo62278]

They're crooked, plain and simple. All politicians are!!! You don't really expect them to hold funds that they seize forever do you? When the police make a drug bust and seize assets, they sell them in a police auction. Just the way things are.

[KryptoBull]

1. Of course they will sell these BTC, but why would they not, they are making a good profit, and according to law, if these funds are seized then there must be some timeline for the authorities to clear these funds. And considering that, I don't think they have the luxury to wait for a better price to sell the BTC.
2. I don't think this event will have negative impact on BTC, because currently the market is so soaking, and I think this amount will be soaked by the consumers as well, as new comers are mostly newbies, and buying BTC, plus there are ETFs not, market has expanded, and there is a chance that, these 11 ETFs might buy these BTC via OTC, if they did then we might not see any dump as well.
3. Nah, I did not know about this until this post, and my strategy remain the same.

With a huge trading volume of around 60 - 70B USD per day, I hope if the US government really sells BTC from their budget, the price of BTC will not be affected. BTC price should naturally adjust to retest important price zones below to continue to grow stronger in the future instead of being negatively affected by a huge selling force that exceeds the market liquidity at that time.

I like your steadfastness in investment thinking, wish you will receive many profits with diamond hands.

They're crooked, plain and simple. All politicians are!!! You don't really expect them to hold funds that they seize forever do you? When the police make a drug bust and seize assets, they sell them in a police auction. Just the way things are.

If they only sold about 1B USD worth of BTC, I would forgive them.
If they want to sell all 14B USD now to dump BTC price, I think I will not hesitate to blame any negative fluctuations on the BTC price chart on them, even in the next seasons in future 

[bounceback]

Looking current bitcoin price and easily raise the new all time high price I don't worry with the United State government moving many bitcoin assets because bitcoin keep in the positive trend going up to the higher price.
Not significant impact yet with US government moving he bitcoin assets because not try to sell bitcoin because its the proof for many criminal cases,
I think the US government keep hold their bitcoin assets taken from criminal case until for long term without get regulation for selling it, don't worry and keep hold bitcoin as long possibility until halving time and bitcoin price raise to $100k.

[Learn Bitcoin]

At first, I was worried when I heard that the US government moved Bitcoins, and I thought they would dump them on some exchange. Since I wasn't aware of the source of those funds and what procedure they would have to follow to dump them, it was obvious why I was expecting them to sell those Bitcoins. But Yesterday, I found a post by Stompix, and his post makes sense.

Guys, there is no danger of those coins hitting the exchanges soon!
Those coins are from the Bitfinex hack and the DoJ will not release them nor will they auction it until Bitfinex settles the claims with their clients, after the hack the victims agreed to a  plan taking 30% losses and getting paid in tokens,  they want now their coins back, and no federal agency will return a seized good or commodity or anything else when there is not  clear owner of the funds and no lawsuit regarding it.

So those coins will be stuck there for years to come much as MtGox!

[Lucius]

The sooner the US sells all the BTC it has, the better for everyone - because some interpret it in a completely wrong way in the sense that they will keep it, and their attitude towards Bitcoin is still negative despite everything. Of course, they don't mind Bitcoin as an asset that generates profit, but rather as a currency that could have an impact on their national currency.

I am more concerned that Bitcoin is somehow more and more dependent on one country, whether it is mining, the amount owned by their funds and companies, or what their current or future president will say on the subject.

[tranthidung]

Nothing to worry about in my opinion.
Us government is just one more big player, a big whale

It can dump its coins , but this won't make a difference in the long run

Bitcoin market now is bigger than itself in the past. With bigger trading volume, it can be well even the US government dumps its bitcoins.

Even USA tried to attack the network, like performing a 51% attack  , it would cost trillions of dollars and black-outs due to high energy cost.

Bitcoin is highly resistant to that continental attack.

The cost is huge and benefit is small, does not last long.

How many Bitcoin confirmations is enough?
Bitcoin confirmation risk calculator

I am more concerned that Bitcoin is somehow more and more dependent on one country, whether it is mining, the amount owned by their funds and companies, or what their current or future president will say on the subject.

If Bitcoin miners can have a Great Migration from China, they can do the same to migrate out of the USA.

[retreat]

As long as they don't hold more than 50% of the Bitcoin supply, I wouldn't worry about it. Because if they plan to sell the Bitcoins in their hands, then there will be people who are ready to accept the Bitcoins. Even though this will trigger a slight price change, it will not trigger investor panic because the supply is not that much compared to Bitcoin held by other entities.

[joniboini]

As long as they don't hold more than 50% of the Bitcoin supply, I wouldn't worry about it.

Why specifically 50% though? Are you referring to 51% as mentioned above, or are you suggesting that if they have more than 50% of BTC supply they can manipulate the spot market whenever they want to? If it is the latter, I'm pretty sure some people already did that with way less supply, as long as they have a good amount of money to pay media to say stuff (either to hype retail or scare the shit out of them). I can already imagine some headlines that will come when the government holds 10% or more supply, or vice versa. If you care about long-term gains then you should be prepared from years ago, considering how the cycle works.

[0t3p0t]

1. Do you think the US government is about to sell 15,085 BTC?
2. Will this event have a negative impact on BTC and the entire crypto market?
3. Are you worried and changed your investment strategy because of this event?

1. Yeah, they will sell it as usual.
2. Maybe slight impact but that will surely be consumed and added to bags of big time investors that is only waiting for opportunities in the market.
3. I am personally not worried about this because I am a long term holder.