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Messages - pawel7777

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1
If today was 1st of April, I would be 100% convinced that Bayern appointing Vincent Kompany is an April's fool joke. But apparently this is really happening.
I get that he had some success in getting Burnley to the big boys league and he even earned a few EFL Championship Manager of the Month awards in the process, but he's just not there yet in terms of proving he's capable of running a top European club.
Maybe if he was to manage to get Burnley to the middle of the Premier League table we could speculate that he might be naturally great and talented, but his team got relegated after winning only 5 games in the entire season. That's not really something to brag about.
From the brief reading I've done, the media are speculating that Bayern has failed to secure other candidates and might not have had too many other options available. This is the only angle that makes sense to me.
Whoever is going to win the Bundesliga next season, I'm pretty sure it won't be Bayern.

2
As the season came to an end and there's not much going on other than gossip and speculation about which manager will get sacked, it's a good time to share a handful of random, obscure stats that nobody cares about:

Players' stats:
Goalkeeper with the most ball punches: Neto (Bournemouth): 26
Passes: Rodri (Man City): 3,633
Hit woodwork: Darwin Nunez (Liverpool): 9
Big chances missed: Erling Haaland (Man City): 34
Dispossessed: Mohammed Kudus (West Ham): 93
Fouls: Conor Gallagher (Chelsea): 83

Clubs' stats:
Own goals: Sheffield Utd: 7
Yellow cards: Chelsea: 105
Red cards: Burnley: 7
Offsides: Liverpool: 100
Tacles: Crystal Palace: 788

Source: https://www.premierleague.com/

3
OK, we have a date for the rematch. It will take place just before Christmas, on 21st December:
https://talksport.com/sport/1899340/tyson-fury-vs-oleksandr-usyk-new-rematch-date-confirmed/
credit to JollyGood for posting this on BTT

Usyk almost definitely will not be stripped before 2nd June, but that's not to say the IBF cannot do it after that date.
Given the rematch is scheduled 2 months later than initially indicated, any potential mandatory defense will not take place until around a year from now at the earliest. I find it hard to believe the IBF will grant the exception and postpone the defense for that long, as it would be unfair to the challengers. Plus, there's no guarantee the winner of the rematch will be interested in defending that belt at all.
I expect there will be no interim belt on the line on Saturday and Usyk to be stripped after the 2nd of June. Then the fight between Hrgovic/Dubois and Anthony Joshua would be for the proper belt (not the interim one).
I don't see much sense in introducing an interim belt given Usyk is not seriously injured and would be ready to fight if he wanted to.

4
I don't think the possibility of Usyk being stripped of the IBF belt would be any threat to the rematch with Fury. The rematch will happen regardless of the IBF's decision.
That's simply because the only way for Fury to save his face/legacy is to go out there and take his revenge on Usyk. What other option does he have? Refuse to fight because the number of belts is not quite the same as in their 1st fight? That would be nonsense.

As for the IBF belt, it's a bit weird that we're only a few days away from Hrgovic Vs Dubois and nobody seems to know whether it's going to be a fight for the belt, interim belt, or no belt at all.
I think we can rule out the belt, as Usyk is on medical suspension until 2nd June, unless the IBF really want to strip him (I don't believe they are) and will find some loophole to do it before the 1st.

5
(...)
Since Ten Hag couldn't provide such, sacking him and bringing another coach, that's what's on their mind. It's better to have it done than still keeping Ten Hag as Manchester United's coach

If the media reports are true, it already has been decided that he's on his way out. Allegedly he already talked with Jim Ratcliffe and was informed of the decision.
There was no way he could stay for another season after the club placed in the worst league place since the 1989/90 season (when they ended up 13th).
Although, to be fair to him, when Alex Ferguson took over he was also far from being successful in the first few years. United's places under Ferguson in his first 5 years as the manager were 11th, 2nd, 12th, 13th and 6th respectively, and things have massively improved since then.

Anyhow, the big question is who will replace him. Names currently floating around in the news are: Roberto De Zerbi, Thomas Tuchel, Kieran McKenna, Mauricio ­Pochettino and Thomas Frank.

6
Bitcoin Forum / Re: Trump Supporting Bitcoin, Crypto
« on: May 26, 2024, 11:52:16 PM »
It's not a surprise. I've seen an article somewhere (I'll try to dig it up later) that a positive stance on cryptocurrencies of US presidential candidates could play a deciding role in the outcome of the 2024 elections.
It might sound crazy at first, but it makes sense if we consider that Bitcoin/crypto are no longer some obscure thing that only a handful of people understand. The number of people interested/invested in crypto in the US is huge, and those people will not take kindly any attempt to mess up with their investments by imposing new legal restrictions etc.

7
Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing]: Info and Prediction Thread
« on: May 26, 2024, 06:51:50 PM »
Here are the odds for the full card of the Bivol Vs Zinad next week:

Dmitry Bivol x1.06 vs. Malik Zinad x12.50
Daniel Dubois x2.70 vs. Filip Hrgovic x1.44
Zhilei Zhang x1.61 vs. Deontay Wilder x2.28
Nick Ball x2.38 vs. Ray Ford x1.57
Hamzah Sheeraz x1.44 vs. Austin Williams x2.75
Willy Hutchinson x2.07 vs. Craig Richards x1.73

Which of the above would you consider a good value bet?
I think it's possible that Wilder will redeem himself and could find a way to finish Zhang. Are odds of x2.28 good enough to make such bet? I'm not convinced.

8
If the casino gambling pays you off better than your reliable source of income is today, would you concentrate more and give more of your times and funds to the casino? Or you would keep having the gambling board merely for funs as it maybe?
Remember it pays off more than your source of income probably it could be an alternative reliable source of income for you.

That's a weird hypothetical OP.
The entire concept of casinos are to make profit of gamblers, meaning they have to have the edge over player, otherwise the business would collapse very quickly.
When you say "reliable" I understand you're not talking about getting lucky few times and making a profit, but you mean a situation when a player can expect to win as he has a mathematical advantage on his side?
Even if that was the case, it would not be sustainable. Sooner or later the casino would discover there is some exploit going on and you'd get cut off from that income stream.

9
In relation to the IBF belt, I just learned that Turki Alalshikh has announced that the winner of Hrgovic Vs Dubois will face Anthony Joshua in September:
https://talksport.com/sport/1869699/anthony-joshua-next-fight-tyson-fury-dubois-hrgovic/

Which would indicate that either:
1 - no interim belt will be introduced and Usyk will be granted the exception and then the winner of Usyk Vs Fury 2 will face the winner of Hrgovic/Dubois Vs Joshua for the IBF title shot; or
2 - Usyk will be stripped and the winner of Hrgovis Vs Dubois will face Joshua for the IBF belt, and whoever wins then could maybe face the winner of Usyk Vs Fury 2.

That's how I read the situation anyway.

10
Things are not looking bright for Barcelona if it's true that Laporta (Barcelona's president) decided to sack Xavi, not because of the team's performance, but mainly because of him daring to criticise the management of the club and opening up about the club's financial struggles, which allegedly angered Laporta.
And apparently, they intend to replace him with Hansi Flick, whose latest job was as the manager of the German national team. He was the first manager of Germany to be sacked in the role's history, after a series of disappointing performances. Not a great sign.

11
If anyone is getting heated up after losing, that's a very big red flag and a sign that something needs to be changed.
If one is to engage in gambling at all, the approach should be as emotionless as possible. Getting frustrated with the outcome usually indicates that a person wagered much more than they could afford to lose.

12
If Xabi doesn't underestimate Atalanta, he won't play with a random person as a striker. He keeps their best strikers in the bench, it is very annoying for me. I know Xabi is not stupid, but it is a careless way if he didn't optimize the potential of the main striker in the final match. But sure, it already happended, Xabi must take a lesson from the match. I think it is okay to fail in this match, so they won't make the same mistake in the future.

It's always easy to point out mistakes post-factum, after the result is known. There must have been good reason for Alonso to choose that starting line-up, if he worked well, everyone would be praising him.
And I think Bayer's defence is much more at fault for the outcome than the strikers are.

13
Bitcoin Forum / Re: What Happened To Bitcoin?
« on: May 26, 2024, 12:37:04 AM »
Imo BTC has failed as currency because of its volatility.

Volatility surely didn't help, but the major problem with ANY cryptocurrency succeeding as a currency is that people do not earn in cryptos. And it makes no sense to convert fiat to crypto only so you could pay with it, if you can do the same directly with fiat, avoiding the extra hassle and exchange fees.

14
trying to  be patient hoping to see us over 100k in 2024 but you never know.

That's a positive and yet realistic scenario. $100k is a very strong psychological barrier though, so there will be strong resistance, meaning we could stop at higher $90s levels, but who knows...
As of now, BTC is having a hard time breaking past the $70k mark, which is also understandable, given this is around the previous ATH.

15
A lot of comments show some surprise and disbelief that Man City have lost the FA Cup, despite being huge favourite, forgetting that, for the major clubs, the FA Cup is simply not of high importance.
I think this article helps to put things in perspective:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/who-cares-about-the-fa-cup
Quote
It is estimated that Manchester City, last season’s Treble winners,  made more than £250 million pounds from winning the Premier League, the Champions League and the FA Cup: only some £4 million of that came from winning the cup final at Wembley

In this season, by winning it, Man City would only gain £1m more than they got for being the runner-up (the winner gets £2m, the runner-up £1m). So the motivation was definitely higher on the Man United's side, who needed the win to participate in the Europa League next season and wanted to give something to their fans after placing in the worst league position in over 30 years. And, of course, they'd need that extra £1m much more.

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