Nice poll +1
Personally I think either $50K will happen very soon if we break back above previous highs, otherwise a drop and return to $30K will likely freak out a lot of traders and price could drop lower towards $20-25K. Currently I think $50K is more likely than $25K however, until $30K is broken at least.
I also agree with the view that you have said that it is easier for bitcoin to reach $ 50K than it has to drop back below $ 30K, but once again I always emphasize that bitcoin is much different, the possibility of an upside down could happen, that is, it goes down first and only then ride.
because this has been done by bitcoin in the past few months, so there is no need to panic.
Either way, I think we are approximately 1 year away from a multi-year bear market, regardless of whether price reaches $25K or $100K.
maybe I have a different view because looking at the past halving I really believe that this year there will be renewable ATH which may be bigger several times when ATH occurs in 2017.
but for me this year's increase must be accompanied by altcoins too, because last year altcoins could not do that, so there is no happiness for those who hold altcoins (maybe the most crypto participants at the moment) especially for bounties of course.