I had the same opinion about two weeks ago!
But now I think a run to 100k, be it before the halving or after the halving is impossible to avoid unless something major happens such as a war or got knows that would make everyone run for the hills.
There is simply too much confidence, money keeps flowing, and the US has billions if not in the trillions area of money to be invested, Nvidia alone added 1 trillion in one quarter, the amount of $ on the market is insane and even if crypto gets only one tiny percentage it will still mean a lot if everyone is just focusing on higher price and doesn't want to cashout before 100k.
Furthermore, despite me being one of the worst pessimists when it comes to price I don't see a dump even after the new ATH, a small decline then side movements but nothing even remotely close to the ones BTC was used to, the likes of 60-70% down.
I am also quite surprised that the BTC price continues to rise without any significant adjustments. If this continues, we may have $100K at the Halving in April, which will be the next crazy thing we have to witness in this cycle.
This makes me a little worried, it could be that we will see the market cycle shorten: BTC will create a full cycle top in 2024 and 2025 will belong to the crypto winter. I don't expect this at all. I once expected that the good liquidity of the US market could meet the buying power from BTC Spot ETF, but it seems that the net inflows are too large! Anyway, let's enjoy this sweet price increase!
If a market price of something is volatile and good as bitcoin which is not too volatile, it will encourage traders to trade and also encourage holders to continue smart DCA. So this is good for the market. But how people will trade and hold is what I am not interested in because many people are trading bitcoin. Also that I do not care if it is Americans because bitcoin is not just for Americans but for the whole world.
I just want to mention that the good liquidity in the US market makes the fluctuations in the psychology of US investors have a big impact on the market: for example, when they start buying BTC Spot ETF, BTC price is pushed up strongly and sustainably instead of being pushed down when facing selling pressure from investors in Asia or Europe. Good liquidity has absorbed the selling pressure and maintained a fairly stable uptrend.
This can help us understand why the impact of Spot ETFs in the US is greater than the impact of Spot ETFs in Canada or Spot ETPs in Europe.