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Messages - pawel7777

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 26
1
What do you guys think about the odds for the UCL winner:

Real Madrid: x1.30
Borussia Dortmund: x3.50

Looks like oddsmakers are not convinced by the German team eliminating Atletico and PSG and still consider them to be the underdog.
Personally I think it's anyone's game and I think Real will only be slightly better if both teams perform at their 100%.
BvB did quite well in the semi-final and the quarter-final while Real barely made it past Man City and Bayern. You could say that Real had tougher opponents (which is true) but, for what it's worth, Borussia did beat Bayern 2-0 in their last league game.
The mental advantage will definitely be on Dortmund's side.

2
It sounds like Mission Impossible for AS Roma. Leverkusen haven't tasted defeat in 48 games (all competitions) and managed to win 2-0 in Rome, so everything seems nicely stacked in their favour.
The odds for the Leverkusen to go through are as low as it gets at x1.01. Betting on Roma you could get x18.0
Strangely enough, I think the chances for AS Roma could be in Bayer getting overconfident and approaching the game as if they have already won.
Maybe putting few quids/bucks/sats on Italians just for a laugh is not a bad idea.

3
I'm kicking myself for not making a small bet on Borussia to win, when the odds were at something like x25.0.
Great win by the Dortmund team, they might not be doing that great in the Bundeliga (currently occupying 5th place), but if they manage to win the UCL I'm sure their fans will forgive them. It would be their second time to win the UCL Cup, the first time was in 1997, so quite a long time ago.

As for the game itself, PSG was extremely unlucky, I think they had like 4 shots that went off the post/cross-bar, but it's fair to say that the Dortmund's win is fully deserved.

4
Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing]: Info and Prediction Thread
« on: May 08, 2024, 12:01:03 AM »
They found a replacement for Artur Beterbiev.
Bivol will face Malik Zinad instead. Zinad is 30 year old with a 20-0 record (16 KOs), currently ranked 9th.

https://www.espn.co.uk/boxing/story/_/id/40085057/dmitry-bivol-defend-title-vs-malik-zinad-riyadh

5
Out of their last 10 Premier League games, Manchester United have only won 2. One with Everton and one with the last in the table - Sheffield.
The 4-0 loss to Crystal Palace was an absolute humiliation. We all knew they were lacking in the offence, but their defence was equally bad today. It could've been 5-0 if not for the off-the-post shot.
It's a shame, because they had a real chance of fighting for the 5th place, given Tottenham have lost a lot of points lately, but Man United have wasted that chance.
They can still get a spot in the Europa League next season if they somehow manage to defeat Man City in the FA Cup final, so not all is yet lost for them.

6
Gambling discussion / Re: The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic
« on: May 06, 2024, 11:40:18 PM »
The UFC 301 main card results:



Successful title defense by Pantoja and an important win for Jose Aldo.

I think the biggest loser of the UFC 301 was Vitor Petrino. Many are not familiar with the name, but he was on the verge of jumping into the ranking and being considered for fights with big names. He had a lot of hype potential with his 11-0 record and a high finish ratio, so they gave him Anthony Smith, who seemed to be on the decline, but Smith derailed his hype train with a first-round guillotine choke.

7
The chances that the next season will be equally successful for Leverkusen are rather low. And it's not only because of the risk of key players getting transferred out. The other top contenders, namely Bayern (the richest club in the Bundesliga), will also be making tactical adjustments and squad investments to make sure they don't get dominated as easily as they did this season.
But there is also the psychological factor at play. In the last 5 seasons, they'd usually end up around 5th-6th place, with 2021-22 being their best one, when they finished 3rd. So no one really expected them to win the league, so they had that overperforming underdog mental boost going on, but that won't be the case next season, when the expectations for them will be set really high, which will bring some extra pressure.

As for their yesterday's game against Eintracht - the 5-1 away win is something to be proud of, given Frankfurt can be a pretty dangerous team. I expected another draw and even made a small bet on it, but things stacked up nicely in favour of Leverkusen. Who knows how it all would end if Marmoush didn't waste his perfect 1 on 1 situation and if Eintracht took the 2-1 lead.

8
If Leverkusen can get points against Eintracht Frankfurt today, I believe Leverkusen will have a record of unbeaten in Bundesliga this season.

They already have a record of games without defeat for all competitions, but they are massively behind the unbeaten record for Bundesliga games only, as Bayern's record stands at 53:
https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga/news/longest-undefeated-records-bayer-leverkusen-bayern-munich-borussia-dortmund-26927
I believe Leverkusen now has "only" 36, so there is quite a lot left to go.

9
Solid performance by both PL championship contenders.
It's fair to say that Wolves and Bournemouth are on similar level, and Man City and Arsenal handled them equally good, but I think Man City had much more fun during their game and appeared very relaxed. Haalands scoring 4 goals was much needed to boost his confidence for the upcoming 3 matches that will decide who wins the league.
He now has 25 league goals, so should be enough to secure his Golden Boot trophy, as the 2-3 places are 5 goals behind (Palmer and Isak).

The next week will be more challenging for Arsenal as they're playing Man Utd in Manchester. If they are to lose any points this season, it will probably be there.

10
Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing]: Info and Prediction Thread
« on: May 04, 2024, 10:00:45 PM »
Some sad news regarding the Bivol Vs Beterbiev fight. It got postponed due to Beterbiev's injury. He suffered a ruptured meniscus (knee injury), thet will put him off till at least September.
https://www.skysports.com/boxing/news/12183/13128662/artur-beterbiev-vs-dmitry-bivol-undisputed-world-title-fight-postponed-after-beterbiev-suffers-injury

The remainder of the card, including Wilder Vs Zhang, is still expected to go ahead.

11
Comfy win by Chelsea yesterday now puts Tottenham under a little bit of presure and unsecurity on whether or not they'll manage to keep their current 5th place in the table.
The Spurs have lost 3 games in a row and reduced their gap over 6th Man United to 6 points, which is not really a safe position, as Tottenham is playing Liverpool next and Man City on 14th, so most likely they'll lose 6 points there.
The good thing for them is, that even if they get overtaken by Man Utd, they'll still participate in the Europa League next season, as the winner of the FA cup (Man City or Man Utd) will earn an EL spot, but if they qualify for CL or EL by high league position, that spot would be transferred onto 6th place. With that in mind, Tottenham doesn't have that much at stake, other than pleasing their fans and a better in the Premier League rewards.

12
The difference between this fight and of that the Bivol fight is that the latter is much bigger than Canelo and they are fighting on a division where Bivol is comfortable.

I don't know, I don't quite buy that theory. Usually when someone moves up a weight class, they would have the speed advantage and the opponent would have the advantage of power. But it didn't look that way but almost the opposite. Bivol seemed to be the faster one.
Canelo can justify his loss by the need of bulking up, but if he overdid it to a point when he became too slow, he can only blame himself and his team.

13
In fact, it is normal that they are not playing like before, because they have now locked in the title, so they will not have the same focus as when they were still chasing the Bundesliga title.

Which is a bit of a shame because they had a real chance of beating Bayern's record of 91 points in the season. But now the maximum they can get is "only" 90.
Still 46 games without loss and going is enough of an achievement on its own. That's a European record.
I wonder if they'll manage to keep their performance on similar level next season. Xabi Alonso confirmed he'll stay for another season.

14
This time it is different Fury knows what is at stake here, Fury did not train fully on the Ngannou fight and he takes him for granted, but this time around it is very different, Fury based on videos that are circulating is training hard for this match.

That's not what he said though. He wasn't making any excuses after the Ngannou fight, said he did take him seriously and came properly prepared.
And it wasn't just the Ngannou fight, he got knocked down few times (can't remember how many exactly) by Wilder in the trilogy.
Usyk on the other hand is not only very skilled but also very consistent in his performances. Fury is more chaotic and unpredictable, but who knows, maybe that will work in his favour.

15
Gambling discussion / Re: The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic
« on: May 02, 2024, 08:12:42 PM »
There was some follow up on Arman Tsarukyan punching a fan during his walk out at the UFC 300.

He explained his reasons punching/attempting to punch the guy here:
i=gkvQRpkQviQTaYTt&t=168

I kind of understand him, we're all humans, if you're flipping a middle finger to the other guy and disrespect him, you should expect some violence. On the other hand, when he publicly announced that he will keep responding like that to fans' provocations, he's guaranteed to have more of them in his next fights.

According to the DailyStar, he got an equivalent of £28,000 withheld by the Nevada State Athletic Commission as a penalty, which is 20% of his £126,000 earnings from the fight. Source:
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/ufc/arman-tsarukyan-punches-fan-ufc-32713844

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