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 Andreessen Horowitz: the cryptocurrency market is growing randomly but steadily

Venture Fund Andreessen Horowitz from Silicon Valley has analyzed the cryptocurrency market and came to the conclusion that it has been showing a “choppy yet consistent growth” since 2010. Experts studied four metrics: the price of bitcoin, activity in social networks, developer activity and startup activity. All four parameters showed positive cumulative annual growth rates. The company noted the importance of the 2017 cycle, which became the reason for the launch of “dozens of interesting projects” from various business areas. “Even though crypto cycles look chaotic, over the long term they’ve generated steady growth of new ideas, code, projects, and startups — the fundamental drivers of software innovation. Technologists and entrepreneurs will continue to push crypto forward in the coming years. We are excited to see what they build,” Andreessen Horowitz concluded.

 Miner hackers attacked supercomputers

Last week, a number of supercomputers from the UK, Germany, Switzerland and Spain were attacked by crypto miners. The University of Edinburgh, Leibniz Computing Center, the Bavarian Academy of Sciences, the Swiss Center for Scientific Computing are among the victims. Experts from Cado Security examined samples of malicious code and concluded that hackers gained access through compromised user data and SSH keys. There is no official evidence that the attacks were carried out by one group of attackers, but Cado Security pointed to similar virus file names and network identifiers.

Cardano creator: misinformation prevents bitcoin from spreading

Cardano founder and Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson suggested that bitcoin is misunderstood due to the abundance of false information and fears. “I started with Bitcoin and started with something called the Bitcoin education project. The goal there was to try to bring as many people as possible into our ecosystem and to also dispel a lot of the common myths, fear, uncertainty, disinformation, and misnomers and things that have been cropping up. In 2013, there was certainly a lot of them, and unfortunately today there’s even more,” the businessman said. Hoskinson created a 40-minute video in which he explained the essence of the first cryptocurrency and called for similar actions by all industry participants. The reason was the tweet by the writer Joan Rowling, who asked to tell her what Bitcoin is. Having received many answers, including from Ilon Mask and Vitalik Buterin, the author of Harry Potter books has not understood the idea of cryptocurrency and expressed her disappointment.

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 Bitcoin whales withdraw 17,000 BTC over a few hours

Large holders of bitcoin in several transactions withdrew 17,320 BTC (about $169.4 million) from several exchanges, the Whale Alert service noticed. First, 5,000 BTC was sent from Bitfinex to an unknown address. Then 3,058 BTC was transferred from an account on Binance exchange; 2,645 BTC were moved from OKEx in two transactions. A little later, another 3,164 BTC were withdrawn from OKEx, and 1,593 BTC from Coinbase. The senders and recipients are unknown; all transfers were made during the evening and night of May 19. Twitter users have suggested that whales accumulate coins on the verge of the upcoming Bitcoin price increase.

 Bitcoin price drops to 0 on BitMEX

On May 19, the BTC/ USD price collapsed to zero at BitMEX, one of the largest crypto derivatives trading sites. After that, the platform suspended trading for several hours. Representatives of the exchange did not explain whether there was a real deal at the rate of $0, or whether it was a technical malfunction. BitMEX said that “all funds are safe”, now the website is working as usual. The other day, a lawsuit was filed against BitMEX, among other accusations, the exchange was accused of price manipulation and fraud.

 Bitcoin mining difficulty decreases by 6%

On the morning of May 20, the first change in the complexity of mining Bitcoin took place after the recent halving — the indicator fell by 6%. The reason lies in the hashrate falling after halving the block reward. Now outdated equipment can once again generate revenue at the cost of electricity below $0.05 kW/h. In some provinces of China, due to the rainy season, tariffs for miners have been reduced to $0.03 kWh/h. This may prompt miners who have switched off, to return to cryptocurrency mining, according to Alejandro De La Torre, vice president of the PoolIn mining pool. According to BTC.com, in two weeks, complexity may decrease by another 6.3%. In early March, the indicator updated its historical maximum, but after the collapse of the exchange rate to $4,000 at the end of the month, it fell by 15.95%.

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 Bitcoin Cash is at risk of an attack of 51%

The Bitcoin Cash network lost 30% of hashrate after bitcoin halving - this makes it vulnerable to 51% attack, according to Yassin Elmanjra, analyst at ARK Invest.

“Bitcoin Cash is not looking healthy:

-Hashrate down 30% since halving (& only accounts for ~2% of SHA256 hash)
-Economic throughput at all time lows
-Fees are .05% of miner rev (<$100/day)
-Theoretical 51% attack costs <$10k/hr, ” Yassin tweeted.

He added that he was surprised why the capture of 51% of the cryptocurrency capacities has not yet been implemented. According to the crypto51 service, the cost of such an attack is $8,800 per hour.

Investors accumulate Ethereum

On May 24, two records were updated in the ETH network: the number of addresses containing 100 or more coins reached 47,740, and the number of wallets with one or more ETH exceeded 1,042 million. Glassnode service drew attention to these statistics. Earlier, the Grayscale fund, having bought almost half of all coins mined in 2020,  reported the growth in popularity of investments in Ethereum. The clients of the fund are institutional investors who invest in securities tied to cryptocurrency. According to analysts, market participants expect a strengthening of the coin value after the launch of the Ethereum 2.0 network, scheduled for the third quarter of this year.

 Canaan miner manufacturer reports loss

Hard times have come for mining equipment manufacturers. The Chinese company Canaan said it suffered $5.6 million losses in Q1. Revenue for this period amounted to $9.4 million - for comparison, in Q4of 2019, the indicator reached $66.5 million. The company's expenses in the first quarter of 2020 exceeded $15 million, which is associated with a two-fold reduction in equipment prices. “The overall market situation since December last year until January had not been too good. So the unit price per TH/s was indeed lower,” said Nangeng  Zhang, CEO of the company. According to the F2Pool mining calculator, Canaan devices are significantly inferior in efficiency to the equipment of Bitmain and MicroBT.

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 JPMorgan: Bitcoin is trading 25% below the real value

Although the investment bank JPMorgan does not work with cryptocurrency, the company's specialists occasionally provide analytics on it. According to the bank’s report of May 22, bitcoin today is trading “25% below what the intrinsic price would be after the halving.” The intrinsic value is calculated on the basis of the average cost of mining one coin. Thus, BTC should be trading near the $11,500 mark, which is about $2,400 higher than the current figures. According to JPMorgan, "eventually bitcoin will catch up."

 Miners push the market

Miners turned into sellers, exerting pressure on the market, says analyst CryptoKea. Over the past seven days, they have sold 955 coins over what they mined. “We reached Bitcoin miner capitulation territory,” the analyst concluded. At the same time, the BTC hashrate fell to its lowest level in 2020. Even during Black Thursday, when the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $3,800, the computing power of the network was 94 TH/s. Now it has fallen to 90.30 TH/s. Miners switch off outdated devices, but they are forced to sell bitcoins to pay for current expenses, CryptoKea notes.

 The number of “hodlers” increases to the levels of 2016

The number of coins that have not been moving for more than a year has reached 60%, according to cryptanalyst Philipp Swift. This indicates a significant increase in the number of "hodlers" - investors who prefer to hold coins for a long time. The last time this was observed in 2016, it was several months before the bull rally, Swift notes. The analyst used the data of his own HODL Wave indicator, which estimates how long the coins did not move from one address to another. Currently, the indicator value is at levels close to the historical maximum.

[Paglamon]

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 Whales accumulate $4.8 billion in ETH

Ethereum held by large investors recently reached a 10-month high. The 100 largest wallets have accumulated 21.8 million ETH (about $4.8 billion). At the same time, whales have acquired 145 thousand coins over the past two days, according to the analytical service Santiment. Against this background, Ethereum price reached a 2-month high at around $224. Over the past day, cryptocurrency has risen in price by 5.77%. In addition, the number of ETH long positions on Bitfinex hit a new all-time high: since the beginning of the year, the indicator has grown by 246%, updating the historic maximum at 1.76 million ETH.

 Gavin Andresen: crypto trading is all speculation

Gavin Andresen, Chief research officer at Bitcoin Foundation, expressed the opinion that traders speculate at the price of digital currencies, not paying attention to the essence of the underlying technologies. He compared the graphs of the IOTA and ZCash rates over the past year and noted that he does not see significant differences between them. At the same time, from February 12 to March 10, no transactions were made on the IOTA network due to the suspension of the wallet that was attacked. Andresen said that he could not determine from the price chart which of the projects was experiencing problems. “Probably nobody is thinking, and it is all day traders and bots,” the scientist concluded.

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 Chinese authorities to close 64 mining farms

After the meeting of Yunnan province officials, it was ordered to shut down 57 illegally operating mining farms that were disguising themselves as Big Data companies. Another 7 facilities under construction must cease working. The region’s authorities noted the benefits of mining companies that take away excess electricity, but pointed out that many of them come into direct agreements with hydroelectric power plants and evade taxes. Earlier, the local power grid company demanded to stop the illegal energy consumption by miners who connect to the stations bypassing the authorities. It is reported that some farms have already put up their equipment for sale.

 Bitcoin steadily rises in price in May

The principle of traditional markets “sell in May and go away” does not apply to bitcoin, according to analysts at Messari. Last month, BTC added 9%, slightly higher than the 2020 average of 8.5%. At the same time, in 2019, cryptocurrency in May rose by 54% with an average return of less than 8% per month. And in just 10 years, Bitcoin showed a positive trend in May 8 out of 10 times, while in 6 cases it was higher than the monthly average. Among classical traders, there is an opinion that in the summer there is no significant growth in the market, so it makes no sense to open long positions until the fall.

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 CoinMetrics: signs are emerging that may mark the beginning of an altcoin season

The analytical service CoinMetrics drew attention to the price growth of some crypto assets. Cardano has risen 40% in the past week after announcing the launch date for the next major update “Shelley”. OmiseGo price doubled after Coinbase announced the coin’s listing In addition, ETH price grew by 14% per week, ahead of a number of “core assets” - and the majority of altcoins work on the ethereum blockchain, analysts note. “Such market movements in response to mainnet launches, new product upgrades, and exchange listings are reminiscent of late 2017,” CoinMetrics experts conclude.

 Miners reduced bitcoin sales

The Glassnode portal has published data on the influx of coins to exchanges from mining pools. It turned out that after the halving on May 11, miners reduced sales, and now their volume is much lower than the average values for 2020. Over the past two months, sale peaks were observed on May 3 and 7, when Bitcoin price surpassed the $9,000 and $10,000 marks, respectively. Service experts also noted that a surge in BTC price on June 2 above $10,000 provoked an eight-fold increase in the flow of traders’ funds to large exchanges. After the dip to $9,500, the indicators returned to average, which indicates the importance of the round level of $10,000 for market participants.

 Bitcoin has got protection against attacks by authorities

Bitcoin Core 0.20.0 was released on June 3. It contains a solution designed to protect the network from attacks of major players, such as nation-states or corporations like Google. Software “Asmap” was included to protect against a theoretical “Erebus” attack. Such an attack involves blocking or substituting P2P connections to isolate a specific part of the network. The attacker must connect to as many nodes around the victim as possible so that all eight of its external connections go through the attacker's network. Thus, the victim is completely isolated from the main blockchain. Theoretically, such an attack, carried out by an entire nation-state, could fracture the entire Bitcoin network.

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 Again, miners sell more BTC than they mine

After the halving of the block reward, miners have to sell more coins than they can earn, according to a report by Arcane Research. The company uses the Miner’s Rolling Inventory (MRI) metric, which tracks the number of coins generated and moved by miners. If the figure is above 100%, then they sell more BTC than they mine. In March, the MRI reached 105%, then began to decline and fell below 100% on the verge of halving. Immediately after the event, the indicator began to grow and now has again reached the level of 105%. According to Arcane Research analysts, this indicates a change in the mood of miners after halving.

 Commission fees at ETH have surpassed BTC

Ethereum network activity continues to grow: last Saturday, daily transaction fees exceeded Bitcoin levels. According to Glassnode, for the ETH network, the figure was $498 thousand against $ 308 thousand for BTC. Analysts attribute this to the growing demand for transfers in Ethereum. In addition, recently the capitalization of stablecoins has been growing, the bulk of which operates on the ETH blockchain. Earlier, the founder of Mythos Capital, Ryan Sean Adams, noted that there is a direct correlation between commission fees and the price of Ethereum. If the trend continues, then we can expect a growth of cryptocurrency price.

 What altcoins will surge in price along with Bitcoin?

Simon Dedik, co-founder of the Blockfyre analytical portal, shared his opinion. He noted that in 2017, during the rally of Bitcoin price, almost all altcoins went up in price. In the next cycle, this situation will not happen again, and only the most important altcoins for the crypto industry will surge in price. These, according to the analyst, include Ethereum, Litecoin and XRP. Not all representatives of the crypto sphere adhere to this opinion. So, TV presenter Max Kaiser said that altcoins can not compete with the first cryptocurrency in the future. A similar position was expressed by the CEO of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano: in his opinion, all altcoins will become useless and disappear from the market.

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 Survey: 36% of large institutions invested in Bitcoin

Fidelity Investments surveyed 774 institutional investors from Europe and the USA - it turned out that 36% of them had purchased Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. These include hedge funds, financial managers, pension funds and other market participants. At the same time, the share of such investors increased from 22% to 27% over the year in the USA, while in Europe the figure is even higher - 45%. Tom Jessop, CEO of Fidelity Investments, explained that this is due to more relaxed European legislation and the prevalence of negative rates. “These results confirm a trend we are seeing in the market towards greater interest in and acceptance of digital assets as a new investable asset class,” he concluded.

 80% of ETH holders are in positive territory

80% of Ethereum owners bought cryptocurrency at a price lower than the current one, according to Glassnode. Over the past two years, the indicator was at such a high level only three times. At the same time, the last time the price of ETH was $700, now the asset is trading at around $245. At the end of March, with the price dropping to $108, the share of investors in profit fell to 18%, a record low since 2016. The historical maximum price of Ethereum was set in January 2018 at around $1,430 - since then, the cryptocurrency has fallen in price by 83%. Glassnode previously noted that more than 77% of ETH has not moved over the past six months.

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 Buterin: the growth of the bitcoin price is not related to halving

The co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin stated that the theory that the growth of the BTC exchange rate was related to halving did not work. The developer attached a chart of the S2F model according to which bitcoin periodically increased its cost together with halving the reward for mining a block. "The last $20k peak was near the halfway point between the 2016 and 2020 halvings", he pointed out. In the comments Buterin was told that the model predicted the quantitative growth of the bitcoin price, but it did not presume that the maximum will coincide exactly with the event of halving. The developer agreed that the absence of the direct correlation between halving and the growth of the bitcoin price did not disprove the theory, but said that he still did not agree with it.

 The price of Ethereum can rise up to $7,500

If the BTC exchange rate increases up to $50,000, Chris Burniske, a partner in the Placeholder venture capital firm, thinks. "If $BTC goes > $50,000 in the next cycle, and $ETHBTC returns to its former ATH, then expect to see $ETH > $7,500", he wrote in his Twitter account. According to him, the price of bitcoin will rise up to $50,000, even if the volatility of the new rally will be twice as less as the previous indices. In this case, the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency will rise above $1 trillion. It will allow bitcoin to strengthen its "macro equity" status, while ETH will be able to become a mainstream instrument, the expert thinks.

 The price of bitcoin will go down following the stock market

Analyst Satoshi Flipper thinks. If the US shares continue the correction, the BTC price will fall to $7,300 before the middle of July, he writes. Satoshi Flipper points out that, by going below $9,400, the exchange rate has broken through the trend line that has been acting as a support one since May. The S&P 500 index fell down 2.79% this morning — the crypto market followed it as well, the trader points out. He adds that he has been holding the short position regarding bitcoin since the weekend.

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 Bitcoin should cost $18,000 today

Analyst PlanB writes. According to his estimates, the correlation between the S&P 500 index and bitcoin is 95% and the cryptocurrency is underestimated today. With the current index, BTC should cost $18,000, the analyst points out. PlanB also notes that the charts of both equities fit into the S2F model — according to the forecast, the next peak of bitcoin will occur at the level of $288,000 and S&P 500 will rise up to $4,300 in this case.

 The BTC price will continue to fall

Popular trader CryptoCapo posted a series of tweets where he compared the current bitcoin chart with historical data. The detected "fractals" presuppose that the bitcoin exchange rate will continue to go down. According to the analyst, the price is ready to break through the support trend line. If the rate goes below $9,200, the next goal will be the level of $8,550, the breakthrough of which will definitely confirm the bear trend. CryptoCapo earlier posted the Wyckoff method estimate according to which the current accumulation would trigger the price movement to the point of $1,600.

 Bitcoin will go down to $6,900 towards autumn

Crypto analyst Dave the Wave points out. According to his conclusions, the bitcoin exchange rate should drop down to the lower side of the global triangle where there is also the Fibonacci correction level of 0.382. The analyst points out that indicators confirm the bearish attitude and "the last but one chance" to buy at a low price will be near the level of $6,900.

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 Jim Rogers: bitcoin will drop down to zero

Renowned American investor and Chairman of Rogers Holdings Jim Rogers stated that bitcoin continued to be a bubble and at one point in the future its price would plummet to zero. He pointed out that cryptocurrencies could not exist because they were not controlled by authorities. "But their governments have something that crypto people don't have. That is guns. The reason why I think cryptocurrency will be gone eventually is that it is not based on the armed force of governments' power.", Rogers worded his point of view. He added that money was turning into a digital form, but it continued to be controlled by regulators unlike cryptocurrencies that would not be able to become legal tender.

 Max Keiser: the BTC price will grow to $400,000 when dollar collapses

Bitcoin investor Max Keiser confirmed his forecast about the growth of the first cryptocurrency exchange rate up to $400,000 and specified that specific dates would depend on the collapse of the US dollar. According to Keiser, the interest payment on the USA's national debt comprised the main item of expense for the government. "The debt is big. But the interest on that debt is now bigger than America’s number-one budget item, the military’s 1.6 trillion spend. When the interest on the debt gets close to 100% of GDP then America will officially be a failed state. This looks like it will be the case within 5 years — as short interest rates snap back to historic levels of 5%, not the current 0.5%", the trader said. He added that he had been waiting for BTC to grow up to $100,000 since 2011, but had recently increased his forecast to $400,000. The increase will start with the collapse of US dollar, Keiser thinks.

 Anthony Pompliano encouraged pension funds to buy bitcoin

Co-founder of Morgan Creek Capital Management Anthony Pompliano addressed pension funds encouraging them to invest money in the cryptocurrency. Last week he sent a letter to investors where he called bitcoin the most effective equity in the nearest years to come. According to the businessman, pension funds should invest at least 1% of the capital in BTC — the optimal level would be 5%. "And you want to know where the greatest innovation is occurring at the moment? Bitcoin. There is a group of individuals who have built a $150+ billion asset with the goal of assuming the position of the next global reserve currency. If that happens, it will be the best performing asset for the next 20+ years. But even if that doesn’t happen, things will be okay", Pompliano pointed out.

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 Messari: bitcoin will go up to $50,000 if institutional investors come to the market

Messari analyst Ryan Watkins estimated how much bitcoin would cost if institutional investors invested 1% of their funds in it. It turned out that BTC would rise up to $50,000 and the capitalization of the crypto market would exceed $1 trillion. According to the expert's assessment, investments from institutional investors are negligibly small at the moment. They are frightened off by uncertainty, hacking and fraud risks as well as by prejudice. "Bitcoin may not need institutions to succeed. But reality is, success as a store of value is measured in price. And if Bitcoin is to become a globally adopted non-sovereign store of value, it will need to convince institutional investors to transfer wealth into the asset", Watkins worded his opinion.

 OKEx CEO: new aid package from US authorities will help bitcoin

OKEx exchange CEO Jay Hao said that the second aid package for US citizens due to the coronavirus pandemic could push the bitcoin price up. In March, the government allocated $2.2 trillion for these purposes and after that the price of bitcoin rose from $6,580 to $10,400. Now the US authorities plan to give away another $1 trillion, Bloomberg quotes Hao. He specifies that it is difficult for institutional investors to choose where to invest their money since the stock market is artificially inflated and stocks look like a too risky asset right now. "Institutions will be looking for the best rate of return over time and Bitcoin has consistently proven itself here just as Paul Tudor Jones called it the fastest horse. Again, of course, institutional investors will spread their risk across risk and haven assets", Hao clarifies.

 Miners can trigger a collapse of the BTC rate

Analyst Cole Garner noted that miners had started to massively take coins away from pools. Yesterday the CQ.Live service registered the second largest outflow of miners' funds since the BTC price had reached $10,000. After that the rate fell down to $9,000 last time. Garner supposed that it could trigger sales on the market this time as well. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young agrees with him. In his opinion, the outflow of coins by miners will result in a short-term fall of the BTC price in the middle of July.