Yes you are correct, holding for long term may actually turn to be wasted efforts even when the project team are following the project road map. And while there are coins to hold for long term, it becomes a probability thing, because you may hold certain coins for many years, and it it tuned a worthless effort while you may hold some notable coin /token for just a year, and you make good profit.
I think everything depend on the economic need of the coin /token in the general ecosystem.