Support zone: BTC will retest before continuing to increase

[MrSpasybo]

After BTC Spot ETF was approved, BTC reversed at Fibo Retracement 0.786 ~ $49K. This price adjustment behavior has been repeated many times in previous cycles and I do not find this strange at all. I think that the temporary recovery ended after the period of BTC price increasing very quickly, BTC needs to rest before going into a really strong growth phase in 2024-2025.

Currently, BTC price has retested $39K, down about 20% compared to the peak price. Many investors in the crypto community are worried but I think this is also a good correction for BTC and the entire crypto market. If BTC price continues to increase very strongly, the chart will form unsustainable patterns and we will see the bubble burst event coming very quickly. Conversely, when the BTC price corrects, greedy heads are cooled and the growth trend is reinforced by the support zones below. In addition, this fluctuation also causes weak hands to sell and exit positions, Market Maker can collect more tokens, ready to pump to create an impressive and powerful bullrun!

Let's try to predict the support price zone for BTC.

Using Fibo Retracement, BTC price has currently decreased from Fibo 0.786 to Fibo 0.618, however this zone does not have any support yet, so I think BTC will continue to decrease to Fibo 0.5 ~ $32K. This was a strong resistance zone in Q2 2023. Once broken, it could become a reliable support zone for BTC's price increase.

In case the market has a black swan event, BTC may drop to Fibo 0.236 ~ $22K. However, since the BTC halving is only about 3 months away, I don't think the market has enough time to make such a big move, so I won't pay much attention to this possibility.

Do you think the ongoing correction is good for BTC's long-term bullish trend? In your opinion, to which price zone will BTC adjust before continuing to increase? What methods do you use to identify and predict it?

[Uruhara]

Well this is just a repetition of the market cycle. Like waves on the beach which will definitely be pulled first into the deep sea before finally becoming big waves. Likewise in the price correction that is currently occurring in bitcoin.

Maybe for weak hands they will panic and will sell some of their bitcoin holdings and hope that bitcoin corrects deeper and they will re-accumulate when that happens. It's just that I think this correction will probably continue if Grayscale still hasn't finished selling the GBTC that they send to the market periodically at this time. So every time Grayscale sends its BTC to Coinbase, don't be surprised that the market will immediately correct. Because many people monitor their wallets and will try to preemptively exit the market every time Grayscale sells. And if Grayscale stops selling then I think the market will recover slowly because the Bitcoin Halving hype is actually still continuing.

[Litzki1990]

In these few days the price of Bitcoin has dropped by almost 10 thousand dollars which is a lot. As quickly as the value of Bitcoin rose, the value of Bitcoin fell. If there is a risk of further decline after such a decline, then it is not good news at all. Many investors are losing their investments now so if they see more dumping now they will sell their investments and if they sell enough investments the market will dump more. A few hours ago Bitcoin price touched $40k from $38k in a short span and then it seemed that $38k Bitcoin may have created a support and from now on the market may be moving upwards slowly but the market is dumping again. According to your information, it seems that the market may be dumping a bit more.

[Jamal Aezaz]

After BTC Spot ETF was approved, BTC reversed at Fibo Retracement 0.786 ~ $49K. This price adjustment behavior has been repeated many times in previous cycles and I do not find this strange at all. I think that the temporary recovery ended after the period of BTC price increasing very quickly, BTC needs to rest before going into a really strong growth phase in 2024-2025.

I hope what you are saying is right. because if it didn't happen like you said and keep dropping then crypto market will bleed so much. BTC himself will probably recover sooner or later, but other altcoins will be severely affected by this and they'll take long time to recover.
Even tho I myself is happy about that. because the lower BTC price go the better opportunity we will get to buy more and fill our bags.

Do you think the ongoing correction is good for BTC's long-term bullish trend? In your opinion, to which price zone will BTC adjust before continuing to increase? What methods do you use to identify and predict it?

I am unable to say anything about that. Honestly I was not expecting that big correction in btc price. it is a bit unexpecting for me. because I was expecting a big price increase after ETFs approval. but things didn't go as we thought.

[Husires]

The speed of reaching Fibo 0.618 to 0.382 will determine whether we will see levels below $30,000 or whether we will remain between $33,000 to $42,000 for the coming months. The price rebounded strongly today after touching the 38,600 levels, so I think that in the coming days 36,700 will be tested, and if price succeeds in breaking it quickly, we will definitely see levels between $27,000 to $32,000, and if he does not succeed in breaking it, we may not see levels of $20,000 to $30,000 again.

There is no potential for an uptrend.

[MrSpasybo]

I am unable to say anything about that. Honestly I was not expecting that big correction in btc price. it is a bit unexpecting for me. because I was expecting a big price increase after ETFs approval. but things didn't go as we thought.

I think the majority of investors were very optimistic when the BTC Spot ETF was approved and expected long-term price increases, but many investors have begun to fear short-term price declines.

Halving is coming, I think BTC will not have enough time to adjust too deeply, we will see BTC continue its uptrend soon.

The speed of reaching Fibo 0.618 to 0.382 will determine whether we will see levels below $30,000 or whether we will remain between $33,000 to $42,000 for the coming months. The price rebounded strongly today after touching the 38,600 levels, so I think that in the coming days 36,700 will be tested, and if price succeeds in breaking it quickly, we will definitely see levels between $27,000 to $32,000, and if he does not succeed in breaking it, we may not see levels of $20,000 to $30,000 again.

I am also monitoring the fluctuations of BTC, currently BTC is back above $40K, this is a good signal that there is a need to collect BTC, not everyone is extremely scared or wants to exit their positions. For me, 3x is nice, 2x is too extreme and could be equivalent to the 2020 correction @@

[Faisal2202]

greedy heads are cooled and the growth trend is reinforced by the support zones below. -cut- so I won't pay much attention to this possibility.

These few lines is the moral of the whole story or drama that BTC is performing now. These few words explain it all and I think is the most general explanation of what is happening to BTC right now. To be honest, I am not a technical analyst, I don't use Fibo, I only use support, resistance, and 4EMA to make Support and Resistances and that's it. The reason is I am long-term investor, I did give some time to short-term trading but did not find it to my taste.

Do you think the ongoing correction is good for BTC's long-term bullish trend? In your opinion, to which price zone will BTC adjust before continuing to increase? What methods do you use to identify and predict it?

Yeah, I do think the ongoing correction is good for the market, the reason is the same as you have aforementioned, to take big steps or to run a rally we have to take a few steps back. BTC is doing the same, I did not assume till now that BTC could go below $35k but after reading your analysis I am also confused but you also said the probability of it going that low is low 

[jeraldskie11]

Do you think the ongoing correction is good for BTC's long-term bullish trend? In your opinion, to which price zone will BTC adjust before continuing to increase? What methods do you use to identify and predict it?

For me, no. Until the price does not go down under the invalidation area I still consider that the price will continue  to break the weak high and create a new high. That is my rule in trading in terms of identifying if the trend will continue its trend or a reversal. The concept of market structure is what I am basing to determine my bias and I feel like having this in my analysis in the chart is great, it really helps me to increase the probability of my TA.

[MrSpasybo]

These few lines is the moral of the whole story or drama that BTC is performing now. These few words explain it all and I think is the most general explanation of what is happening to BTC right now. To be honest, I am not a technical analyst, I don't use Fibo, I only use support, resistance, and 4EMA to make Support and Resistances and that's it. The reason is I am long-term investor, I did give some time to short-term trading but did not find it to my taste.
~
Yeah, I do think the ongoing correction is good for the market, the reason is the same as you have aforementioned, to take big steps or to run a rally we have to take a few steps back. BTC is doing the same, I did not assume till now that BTC could go below $35k but after reading your analysis I am also confused but you also said the probability of it going that low is low 

Thank you for your opinion.
I hope that I have been lucky enough to tell the story of BTC in a simple and approximate way. I hope that what I expected will happen: BTC continues to move sideways around Fibo 0.618, if the price flash dumps to $32K it will quickly recover right before the halving.

I wish I could predict the future more accurately, but unfortunately we have to accept probability theory because those are the rules of the financial market 😅

For me, no. Until the price does not go down under the invalidation area I still consider that the price will continue  to break the weak high and create a new high. That is my rule in trading in terms of identifying if the trend will continue its trend or a reversal. The concept of market structure is what I am basing to determine my bias and I feel like having this in my analysis in the chart is great, it really helps me to increase the probability of my TA.

I really want to know more about your technical analysis method as a reference for BTC's current fluctuations. A picture is worth a thousand words, I hope you can share your analysis on BTC price chart, it will help us understand each other more easily.

[Captain Corporate]

I do not think that 32k would be viable either. OP talks about how 22k is not likely because we are getting closer to halving and there is a bgi chance that we may not reach there. But I think its quite obvious that we are not going to end up with 32k either. That doesn't mean to say that we are not going to end up with any of that, we could still end up with a result that would be good, just wait for it. I think we are going to just bounce from that 39k levels and we are going to end u with higher and higher price the more we get closer to the halving period. The testing of downside feels like it might be over.

[sampoerna]

Using Fibo Retracement, BTC price has currently decreased from Fibo 0.786 to Fibo 0.618, however this zone does not have any support yet, so I think BTC will continue to decrease to Fibo 0.5 ~ $32K. This was a strong resistance zone in Q2 2023. Once broken, it could become a reliable support zone for BTC's price increase.

This is very likely to happen. Indeed, as usual, if Bitcoin will experience an increase, there will be a retest first on certain assets. but the problem is as usual, if there is a price retest in this lower area, people will then panic and the price of Bitcoin will worsen. And that happens often.

Anyway, now maybe Bitcoin will return to the lower $39k area, and maybe it will drop a few more times. But if that's true until it reaches the $32k limit, hemm, this will drop very far and will definitely really make the market cloudy. Hopefully the retest won't be that deep.

[Husires]

I am also monitoring the fluctuations of BTC, currently BTC is back above $40K, this is a good signal that there is a need to collect BTC, not everyone is extremely scared or wants to exit their positions. For me, 3x is nice, 2x is too extreme and could be equivalent to the 2020 correction @@

The strength of the rebound from 38k confirms that we will not go far in the correction, so I can say that the long-term bottom contains from 15.6k to 22k to 33k, so the coming months will be boring as the price will not move up or down until May. We will be between $48,000 to $33,000.

[kulkhan]

After recent Bitcoin spot ETF approved we wished Bitcoin price will increase but we saw it happen fully opposite which we were thought. I am agree with you now happening correction. After correction period Bitcoin price will increase speedily. I think Bitcoin support zone is $38k. And it will back Again.

And now we are seeing that's happening. And Bitcoin price increasing again. Today Bitcoin price increasing hardly. Today bitcoin price pumped from $40k to $41.5k and now also increasing. And near future Bitcoin halving will happen so i think from now bitcoin price will increase continue slowly and after halving Bitcoin price will increase hardly.

[MrSpasybo]

I do not think that 32k would be viable either. OP talks about how 22k is not likely because we are getting closer to halving and there is a bgi chance that we may not reach there. But I think its quite obvious that we are not going to end up with 32k either. That doesn't mean to say that we are not going to end up with any of that, we could still end up with a result that would be good, just wait for it. I think we are going to just bounce from that 39k levels and we are going to end u with higher and higher price the more we get closer to the halving period. The testing of downside feels like it might be over.

Yeah, I also hope that BTC is supported right at the $39K zone and we will see a re-accumulation or growth of BTC in the next few weeks. If this happens, it proves that BTC's momentum is very strong and we could see an ATH right after the Halving.

This is very likely to happen. Indeed, as usual, if Bitcoin will experience an increase, there will be a retest first on certain assets. but the problem is as usual, if there is a price retest in this lower area, people will then panic and the price of Bitcoin will worsen. And that happens often.

Anyway, now maybe Bitcoin will return to the lower $39k area, and maybe it will drop a few more times. But if that's true until it reaches the $32k limit, hemm, this will drop very far and will definitely really make the market cloudy. Hopefully the retest won't be that deep.

$32.5K exists in my prediction as a very quick retest in a weekly candlestick, it should not be a place where the price moves sideways to accumulate. I expect BTC to grow stronger rather than accumulate long-term around Halving.

The strength of the rebound from 38k confirms that we will not go far in the correction, so I can say that the long-term bottom contains from 15.6k to 22k to 33k, so the coming months will be boring as the price will not move up or down until May. We will be between $48,000 to $33,000.

Our predictions are the same, I also expect BTC to accumulate in that zone come halving and have enough energy to create a significant growth and pull the entire crypto market into a major bullrun.

After recent Bitcoin spot ETF approved we wished Bitcoin price will increase but we saw it happen fully opposite which we were thought. I am agree with you now happening correction. After correction period Bitcoin price will increase speedily. I think Bitcoin support zone is $38k. And it will back Again.

And now we are seeing that's happening. And Bitcoin price increasing again. Today Bitcoin price increasing hardly. Today bitcoin price pumped from $40k to $41.5k and now also increasing. And near future Bitcoin halving will happen so i think from now bitcoin price will increase continue slowly and after halving Bitcoin price will increase hardly.

I always support BTC's price increase in both the short and long term. It would be good if we had a strong BTC price increase and optimism in the market at the BTC Halving. I only provide price zones so we can follow and be proactive in the face of major market fluctuations 🚀🚀🚀

[yhiaali3]

Good technical analysis, I agree with you that this is a good correction for BTC and the entire cryptocurrency market. Because falling peaks like this are good behavior, better than harsh and fast candles.

In addition, we saw today how Bitcoin rose and more than 4 billion dollars were liquidated. Today, Grayscale sold 11,800 Bitcoin directly to exploit the rise, meaning its value is approximately half a billion dollars.

There is market manipulation, position liquidation, and technical analysis must take into account the movements of the large ETF companies Wallets because they own huge amounts of Bitcoin and have become a major player in the market.