What are the odds

[DaNNy001]

We all know that the halving has started, and the expectations are up the roof when we talk about the interest rate of people actually making it through the much expected ATH and bull run that normally comes after the halving but nobody seems to be talking about the slight change that occurred this year as the price trend actually changed format  and Bitcoin for the first reach a new ATH even before the halving started.

So am just curious to know what are the odds of everything changing this time around when the halving comes and goes .

[Captain Corporate]

Last time it took about 5 months until the bull huge increases started, so I am not expecting any big movements just yet. Let the summer go past first, and after that we could probably see it start to rise. I am sensing that September is a great period for it to start going up. Thats not going to be easy of course, its going to take a while for it to start and reach a peak, so that means even if we start to go up at September, that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with a peak right away, it will probably see early 2025 for us to peak as well. Thats just my guess, I am not really guessing anything else.

[jeraldskie11]

It's because Bitcoin is not like before, what I mean is that investors in Bitcoin cannot easily be manipulated this days because Bitcoin holders has been increased. That's why when manipulators want to make a big sell in the market, it can't go down that much because they all know that it's a manipulation. So instead we expect that Bitcoin will create new ATH after halving it happened before. This is a good news to us because in all the cycle of halving of Bitcoin, it only happened in this cycle.

[TomPluz]

So am just curious to know what are the odds of everything changing this time around when the halving comes and goes .

In my view, that can be hard question to quantify and I think there will be no straight answer to that unless we are already in 2025 and we can get back to this thread to see the many developments that occurred and analyze them. One thing for sure is that halving 2024 is a unique one primary because a new ATH was reached even before the halving and the reason for that can be the famous ETFs already in the market. Now, it is a common knowledge that halving usually prod Bitcoin to reach new heights after the halving but this can be taking some months so there is a possibility that we would have new two ATHs this time around: before and after halving. And I think the odd for that to come in reality is very good.

[JoyMarsha]

So am just curious to know what are the odds of everything changing this time around when the halving comes and goes .

Just because the market experiences a new ATH doesn't make the market change from the previous halvings that have occurred. To the best of my knowledge, the odds of this season's crypto market will still be the same as with other halving seasons when we get to see the much-expected changes to happen in the crypto market months after the halving season.

From what I know best, after the bull run, what follows is the bearish market. Just like a pattern that occurs every four years(2 years for the bearish market market and 2 years for the bull run market)

[Stompix]

History repeats itself till it does so no more!

Bitcoin has broken all patterns to date and it will continue to do so, people clung to things live never going below the previous ATH, like no double  ATH during a cycle, no bull run before the halving, one has to understand that we had just three cycles, it's such a low pool of data that you can't draw patterns out of it!

Plus, there is the change in the economic environment, the ban in China, and the approval of Bitcoin ETF, how were those present in previous cycles, and furthermore, if there had been no halving, would that have meant no bull run? Of course not! Past experience means nothing, if suddenly the US would ban crypto due you think patterns will matter anymore? If China would say Bitoin is legal tomorrow won't we have a bull run prior to the expected date again? 
But most important of all, if everyone thinks that it will take 4 months for the bull run won't everyone just buy now and dump then, artificially creating and ending the bull run just because they think it should happen when it's all a matter of their own actions?

[MrSpasybo]

History repeats itself till it does so no more!

Bitcoin has broken all patterns to date and it will continue to do so, people clung to things live never going below the previous ATH, like no double  ATH during a cycle, no bull run before the halving, one has to understand that we had just three cycles, it's such a low pool of data that you can't draw patterns out of it!

Plus, there is the change in the economic environment, the ban in China, and the approval of Bitcoin ETF, how were those present in previous cycles, and furthermore, if there had been no halving, would that have meant no bull run? Of course not! Past experience means nothing, if suddenly the US would ban crypto due you think patterns will matter anymore? If China would say Bitoin is legal tomorrow won't we have a bull run prior to the expected date again? 
But most important of all, if everyone thinks that it will take 4 months for the bull run won't everyone just buy now and dump then, artificially creating and ending the bull run just because they think it should happen when it's all a matter of their own actions?

Current technical cycle-based analysts are quite confused because BTC has created a new history for itself: a new low below the previous cycle's peak, a new ATH before halving. Based on history and the belief that BTC price will repeat history, we have no basis for continuing to predict BTC price movements in this bullrun. The only thing I can think of is cyclicity: BTC has peaked in 2013 - 2017 - 2021, so I also expect the peak of this cycle to come in 2025.

Looking back in the past, facing BTC price volatility or rather the volatility of their account balances, investors are always confused because there are too many choices and we can always buy and sell easily 24/7. At the 2020-halving, we also had a new history when BTc price dropped sharply just before the halving, or many traders also doubted the ability of BTC price to continue to create new peaks as in the past. The boredom of cyclicity & the strangeness of new history, both make it difficult for investors to make decisions.

I think we don't need to focus on speculating future, we should continue to hold faith in the bullrun, while not forgetting to prepare for actions when the market has unusual fluctuations. I will still wait for BTC price to reach $150K-170K in 2025

[electronicash]

Last time it took about 5 months until the bull huge increases started, so I am not expecting any big movements just yet. Let the summer go past first, and after that we could probably see it start to rise. I am sensing that September is a great period for it to start going up. Thats not going to be easy of course, its going to take a while for it to start and reach a peak, so that means even if we start to go up at September, that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with a peak right away, it will probably see early 2025 for us to peak as well. Thats just my guess, I am not really guessing anything else.

that doesn't coincide with what they say "Sell in May and Go away. Walk away from the markets until October"
yep 5 months is always been the pattern in stock market but seem like this market is already being set and time is running out. i do hope it won't take this long for the price to go shooting to $100k already. 

the billionaires should start buying every time there is a dip like this.

[KingsDen]

But nobody seems to be talking about the slight change that occurred this year as the price trend actually changed format  and Bitcoin for the first reach a new ATH even before the halving started.

People have been talking about it. You know it is a good thing, so nobody will grumble over it for a very long time.

So am just curious to know what are the odds of everything changing this time around when the halving comes and goes .

The odds are very high that things will actually change. But then, will the change be negative or positive? Some people are of the opinion that bull run is invalidated by the premature ATH. But I'm of the opinion that the ATH we saw was because of ETF approval, the real bull run will just be massive.

[EthereumDev_]

that doesn't coincide with what they say "Sell in May and Go away. Walk away from the markets until October"
yep 5 months is always been the pattern in stock market but seem like this market is already being set and time is running out. i do hope it won't take this long for the price to go shooting to $100k already. 

the billionaires should start buying every time there is a dip like this.

There is no strong support from bitcoin whales until the end of this year, maybe the price of bitcoin will be very difficult to reach $100k. It is possible that next year bitcoin will return to high prices again if there is good news that can lure the whales to come in and providing support to the price of bitcoin again.

[doc]

that doesn't coincide with what they say "Sell in May and Go away. Walk away from the markets until October"
yep 5 months is always been the pattern in stock market but seem like this market is already being set and time is running out. i do hope it won't take this long for the price to go shooting to $100k already. 

the billionaires should start buying every time there is a dip like this.

There is no strong support from bitcoin whales until the end of this year, maybe the price of bitcoin will be very difficult to reach $100k. It is possible that next year bitcoin will return to high prices again if there is good news that can lure the whales to come in and providing support to the price of bitcoin again.

The whales seem to be still waiting, and seem reluctant to enter the market. Is this just a strategy or is it the lack of good news about crypto that makes whales interested in buying bitcoin? We can find out by looking at the next few months, whether there is any good information, for example an ethereum ETF has been approved

[Lucius]

The whales seem to be still waiting, and seem reluctant to enter the market. Is this just a strategy or is it the lack of good news about crypto that makes whales interested in buying bitcoin? We can find out by looking at the next few months, whether there is any good information, for example an ethereum ETF has been approved

What makes you conclude that the "whales" are still waiting? If we consider that those who have the most are also the smartest, then it is logical to conclude that they are always in the game and profit even when others are in despair and panic. Real "whales" have already profited several times, especially those who bought the absolute bottom at $15k.

[dekafee79]

The whales seem to be still waiting, and seem reluctant to enter the market. Is this just a strategy or is it the lack of good news about crypto that makes whales interested in buying bitcoin? We can find out by looking at the next few months, whether there is any good information, for example an ethereum ETF has been approved

What makes you conclude that the "whales" are still waiting? If we consider that those who have the most are also the smartest, then it is logical to conclude that they are always in the game and profit even when others are in despair and panic. Real "whales" have already profited several times, especially those who bought the absolute bottom at $15k.

We cannot predict and know how rare whales are, whether they are really waiting or we are just too confident that Bitcoin will rise again. We should continue to observe market movements, if the bullish top has not yet occurred, buy potential coins from our reserve money