Bitcoin price touched $65k to $56k in just two days. Bitcoin price is in full bearish current position, maybe we are going to reach bull run very soon. Do you think we are headed for a bitcoin bull market or a bear market?

It is a healthy correction after many months of bullish, 7 months as you can see in the table [1]

[1] https://cryptorank.io/price/bitcoin

NUPL indicator shows that we are good to cool down as expected. I believe if Bitcoin stays around $50,000 to $60,000 for some months, it will be better for accumulation and will help Bitcoin to rise stronger next several months. [2]

[2] https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/

Myself using Paxful for P2P trades before that I was using LBC for years because I used to be a day trader that gave me decent profits but now things changed exchanges have their own P2P integrated for example Binance P2P integrated with Binance exchange itself.

Paxful, LocalBitcoins, LocalCryptos and even more P2P marketplaces shut down their business. I know Paxful came back weeks later after Ray Youssef left the company.

The service closures of P2P marketplaces are explainable with more stricter regulations on these platforms. Because with stricter regulations against money laundering, there are bigger risks of sanctions, expensive charges on those platforms and their CEOs. If they feel risky, they will go ahead and self-close their services.

You can find some from https://kycnot.me/

Well then, we've had the same story for a while now. I think this is a fad that will pass, but if there are people who are stupid enough to pay a lot of money to insert rubbish images in the mempool, that's up to them.

They convert their precious bitcoins, satoshis to useless NFTs and dusts. Let them be.

NFTs will die, become useless but Bitcoin will stay here with us. If we hold bitcoins, we will get profit and if they hold Inscriptions, they will cry later.

It pisses us off when the fees go up but it will piss them off even more when they realise that everything they've spent is worthless (unless someone hits the lottery, so to speak). It sounds to me that there was a similar fad before this that eventually died out.

It is painful because it takes months for congested mempools to cool down because hypes will last for several months too. Especially in a bull market, I really don't expect the cooling down rate will be quick enough.

We can read a report from Glassnode Insights, months ago, to understand about the past and guess what will happen with Bitcoin mempools and transaction fees next months.

• Inscriptions, Mempools and Miners

The "problem" is that the majority do not think for themselves, but are constantly under the influence of the media and so-called "influencers". Even when people know that they are doing something possibly wrong, they will not give up if they see that others are not reacting. I bet that nowadays many people ask AI what to do, as if they will get a good answer that way.

Asking AI can be better than asking influencers and I know AI can lie you too for what it does not know from its available database. However, AI will not give you answers because they want to distort fact like influencers to get profit, while you will get loss. At least severity of this biased answers from AI will be less than from bad influencers.

$80k seems like a good start, but $100k is even better - although I don't stress too much about it since I sell when I need to

It is always interesting to see people start to predict, speculate price of Bitcoin after a halving. You are in this market a longer time than me, so I have nothing to 'teach' you.

Let's say it for newbies, they must zoom out and try to have long term investment mindset. Focus on one cycle sometimes will be very headache but if they can manage to have capital and plan for their investment like 2 or 3 cycles, they will feel investment in Bitcoin is very easy and very profitable.

Just as Rothschild said , buy when there is blood in the streets:

I like the graphics and I understand what Rothschild wanted to imply. You can not buy your own blood and you need to have money to buy anything, includes your own blood. This emphasizes the importance of capital management and strategy to always prepare money for buying dips.

If you have bad strategy and poor capital management, you will have empty hands in dips, or you even are bleeding during dips. This is painful experience when you are getting hurt and can not buy dips.

The idea of buying the dip and selling at a massive price increase is literally tied to decision making.

From the first cent that Bitcoin was worth to the current thousands of dollars, the Bitcoin cycle is enough evidence to show that Bitcoin is a digital asset worth investing in without being told

All things of the past are reflected on the price chart, zoom out, you can see price movements historically. However, you don't have experience in the market by looking at a chart. Lack of experience in the market, will affect your decisions with market dip in future. Experience is another important factor for investors and traders, after fundamental knowledge.

When you spend more time in Bitcoin market, you will read more news about this market and Bitcoin. You will read many criticism or just hilarious and jealous comment that Bitcoin investors got profit because they were lucky.

In this thread, I simply give you two charts of Bitcoin and Gold. Let me emphasize, it is not a comparison about Bitcoin and Gold, but my intention is to share a fact that intelligent investors got profit by their intelligent knowledge and decisions for investments, then good capital management. They did not get profit simply because of luckiness. Their profit did not come to them like airdrops without any knowledge and their own serious efforts with time.

See two charts and discover a fact that intelligent investors bravely buy in bear markets, when most serious tests on their belief and mentality. Price did not hold if there are not strong believers and investors. It's not luckiness for Bitcoin, Gold and their investors to hold price in bear markets and tested in many bear markets in history. Their cycles can be longer or shorter but you can see how psychology of market cycle works.

People say Bitcoin is too volatile but see the chart, and discover that Gold gets a correction about 40% and it needs about 10 years to have another bull run.


Each market has its own cycle and discover powerful effects of holding your bitcoins as you can see there.

• Bitcoin market is like other markets, has its cycle. Focus on its cycle!
• HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong hands

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• Choose All to zoom out these charts
• Coindesk Bitcoin Price Index
• Gold continuous contract

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Note:

• It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
• I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
• I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread ^{if necessary}.

are you going to track HK BTC ETFs too?

This is initially for Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the USA and before the USA. there are Bitcoin Spot ETFs in Canada too.

I rely on data from other sources and whether they track HK Bitcoin Spot ETFs or not, I am unsure. In addition, most biggest impacts will be from Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the USA.

It seems like they are still waiting for the bitcoin halving moment, and obviously they will buy again when the dump occurs. Big investors have also prepared their USD to buy bitcoin again. I don't have large funds so I will just follow the movement of trading volume.

Halving is always most expected event in Bitcoin market and around a halving, there will be a lot of uncertainty so that the market and price can be affected by fud. The list is for 30 holders of IBIT but these holders account for only about 0.2% of shares.

Currently we should choose to wait for the halving, because it seems the market is not yet good for trading. I just wait and analyze several coins to buy when a deeper correction occurs.
There will always be panic, but be calm and patient in looking at current market conditions. As you said we are in the discovery phase, it's best to wait and see which way the market will move, but it will probably be a dump

Price will not blast off shortly after the halving. I don't expect such blast off to happen soon.

The market is very panic now and things will become much more negative if Bitcoin can not hold its $60,000 in coming days. It's expected test (in my opinion) around the halving, as previous market cycles show me a fact that market usually have a massive clean up (or massacre, you can say so too) around the halving. Time for it can be either before or after a halving, but the purpose behind it is to clean up the market.

It's good preparation for a massive bull run after all.