I guess that after the approval of ETF for Bitcoin, the next logical step is the approval for ETF on Ethereum asset. However, just like the drama involved before the BTC-ETF approval, am sure there can even be more for Ethereum as we know that SEC is holding the leash on this thing...and its chairman is quite adamant on his strong opposition on such a facility.
Hi Tom
following article from today morning argues that given important similarities between BTC and ETH, namely ...
a) both were not listed by the SEC among the 67 coins and tokens that it claimed were “securities"
b) both are listed and regulated futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)...
... the SEC will replicate the BTC ETFs approval process.
Morover, the article argues that Grayscale also has an ETH trust that they want to turn into an ETF, so SEC knows that a denial of that application would likely lead to another court appeal like Grayscale did with their BTC trust.
Standard Chartered Sees Ether Hitting $4,000 By May, When Ethereum ETF Is ApprovedAccording to Kendrick, the SEC’s dominant strategy for ETH ETF applications is to replicate the BTC process. This partly reflects structural similarities between the two:
- During its case against Ripple in June 2023, the SEC did not list ETH (or BTC) among the 67 coins and tokens that it claimed were “securities".
- In addition, ETH - like BTC - is a listed and regulated futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
As a result,
the bank expects pending applications for ETH US spot ETFs to be approved on 23 May, the final deadline for the first of the ETFs under consideration - the equivalent date to 10 January for BTC ETFs.
And if ETH prices perform similarly to how BTC prices performed in the lead-up to BTC ETF approval, Kendrick expects ETH to trade as high as $4,000 by then.
To be sure, for ETH prices to follow the same price pattern as BTC, Standard Chartered lays out
three conditions that need to be met:
- First, current market expectations for the probability of a 23 May approval date would have to be low, as was the case for BTC ETFs.
- Second, the market-implied probability of approval would have to be wrong
- Third, several spot ETH ETFs would need to be approved on 23 May.
Looking beyond the ETF approval, Standard Charated believes that
ETH is less susceptible to the post-approval selling that BTC has seen. This is because:
a) the Grayscale Ethereum Trust has a smaller share of overall ETH market cap than the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) did before ETF approval.
b) FTX holdings, and the associated forced selling pressure, have even smaller relative market cap shares of ETH versus BTC.