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After the BTC Spot ETF was approved, BTC buying action from funds is what we have been waiting for, we finally have it.
“Blackrock’s spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has acquired 11,439 bitcoin, with a market value of nearly $500 million, within two days of trading on the Nasdaq stock exchange.”[1]
11,439 BTC = 13-days BTC supply, quite a large number!
Of course, I believe that BlackRock is smart enough not to deposit $500M on Coinbase to collect BTC, they can buy through OTC to avoid price fluctuations. However, I also believe that OTC supply is not infinite, meaning there will come a time when BlackRock and other Spot ETF funds will need to look to CEXs to buy BTC for reserve purposes.
However, it seems the story is not so simple: the supply of BTC held on cryptocurrency exchanges has fallen to its lowest level in six years, according to data from Glassnode. This decline has raised concerns about the potential impact on market liquidity.
“The amount of Bitcoin [BTC] held on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since December 2017, according to on-chain data obtained from CryptoQuant.
The leading coin’s exchange reserve peaked at 3.08 million on 2nd March 2022, after which it began to decline. As of this writing, 2.01 million BTC remain on exchanges, representing a 34% decrease in the last three years.”[2]
(https://engamb.sfo2.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/08115423/Bitcoin-Exchange-Reserve-All-Exchanges-1536x967.png)
Source: CryptoQuant[2]
Regardless of the reasons for the decline (investors are taking their Bitcoin off exchanges and storing it in private wallets, or moving their Bitcoin to lending platforms in order to earn interest), it is clear that it is having an impact on market liquidity. When there is less BTC available on exchanges, it can be more difficult for traders to buy and sell BTC. BlackRock and Spot ETFs funds will also suffer the same fate: it is not easy to buy BTC at low prices!
Additionally, we have the BTC halving coming up in April[3]. The supply of new BTC will be halved, meaning there will be less new BTC for investors and Spot ETFs funds to buy.
I firmly believe that with 3 impacts: increased demand, reduced available supply on CEXs and halved new supply, BTC price will soon explode and create a new ATH right in 2024. For me, the short-term BTC price fluctuations are not a concern, I believe we are in the first steps of the 2024 bullrun and BTC could reach at least $150K in 2025.
(https://www.tradingview.com/x/X7Gds4yL/)
What do you think about these impacts on BTC price in the long term? Is this just a trick of Market Maker? How much do you expect BTC price to reach in 2024-2025?
[1] Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Now Holds 11,439 BTC (https://news.bitcoin.com/blackrocks-spot-bitcoin-etf-now-holds-11439-btc/)
[2] Bitcoin exchange supply hits six-year low – What caused the dip? (https://eng.ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-exchange-supply-hits-six-year-low-what-caused-the-dip/)
[3] Bitcoin halving countdown (https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2024-05-10-12-00)
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I firmly believe that with 3 impacts: increased demand, reduced available supply on CEXs and halved new supply, BTC price will soon explode and create a new ATH right in 2024. For me, the short-term BTC price fluctuations are not a concern, I believe we are in the first steps of the 2024 bullrun and BTC could reach at least $150K in 2025.
I also believe this has a great impact on the bitcoin price, as it also follows the law of demand and supply.
One of the reasons why most people are withdrawing their coins from exchanges is as a result of their lack of faith in the exchange, and any coin that is deposited in an exchange technically does not belong to the owner again as they don't have access to the wallet. (#Not Your Key, Not Your Coin) So many people are withdrawing their funds as a result of wanting to have total control over their wallets—not just any kind of wallet but a self-custodial wallet.
And in respect of what I think of the price, anything is possible in bitcoin, but I don't see the price crossing above $100,000 in 2024 based on my own calculation. We are likely to see $100,000 to $200,000 in the next few years, which is between 2025 and 2026. The possibility of that happening is very high.
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Long story short, because the bull market is in the air with Bitcoin halving in April 2024.
It's good time to read an old article from Willy Woo, aka. Woonomic.
Supply Shock, predicting price by quantifying intent to buy and sell (https://woobull.com/quantifying-supply-shock/). We actually can predict massive new capital inflow in 2024 and 2025 as it is like rhythm of history and we already saw it in three previous halvings and bull markets.
New (future) supply will be decreased because of two main factors: halving (block subsidy will halve); more lost bitcoin (because of private key loss).
Demand will increase with time, first of all, because of adoption and in 2024, we will have a big booster from Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Big capital from Wall Street will boost this market a lot.
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I firmly believe that with 3 impacts: increased demand, reduced available supply on CEXs and halved new supply, BTC price will soon explode and create a new ATH right in 2024. For me, the short-term BTC price fluctuations are not a concern, I believe we are in the first steps of the 2024 bullrun and BTC could reach at least $150K in 2025.
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What do you think about these impacts on BTC price in the long term? Is this just a trick of Market Maker? How much do you expect BTC price to reach in 2024-2025?
My expectations about the future BTC price are about the same. The long-awaited adoption of spot BTC-ETF and the upcoming BTC halving will probably be the decisive factors that will influence the BTC price and the entire crypto industry over the next few years. There is an assumption that BTC will be able to break the previous ATH this year, and we may see a peak as early as next year, i.e. the BTC price may well go above $100k or even $150k in 2025. Not sure about 2026.
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I have two important observations on the bitcoin exchange reverse chart. In 2021, the reserve decreased severely, and the price of Bitcoin reacted directly to this decrease, as after the decline continued for more than several months, the price began to interact and rise, while in 2023 this did not happen, and despite the decrease in the reserve, the price React much less, and the reason for this is that you only look at the supply side, not the demand.
(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/17/3ccnv.png)
If what happened in 2021 is repeated and ETFs continue to buy Bitcoin, a surrender will occur within 5 to 8 months. Then, if demand increases, the price will inevitably explode, and the ATH will be in Q1 2025. If that does not happen, the price will increase, and the ATH will be composed of two peaks.
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What do you think about these impacts on BTC price in the long term? Is this just a trick of Market Maker? How much do you expect BTC price to reach in 2024-2025?
I think you have said it all, in the long term, (which is not really a long term anymore since a new all time high will happen between this year and next year being 2025) the price of bitcoin will surely explode and would make mad gains for it's current holders.
One thing I believe is that, currently, market makers, and even the big names are quietly accumulating bitcoin, I would say that 2/3 of them are buying bitcoin over the counter so that the real price of bitcoin stays hidden from the general public until when the time is right to unveil it.
Many will possibly regret not buying bitcoin at this current price, as with my predictions, I've always said that the price of bitcoin will reach $120,000 and above in the next and coming bull run, and the coming bull run will probably be the best and biggest bull run for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies ever.
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I have always advocated not keeping your funds on any (online) custodial wallet, including but not limited to exchanges. Offcourse, if you're an active trader, you might not have much choice, but if you're a holder, your funds should be in a wallet you (and you alone) fully controll.
It doesn't supprise me many people started holding their funds in a non-custodial wallet, after the many hacks, phishin and (exit)scams pulled by centralised exchanges in the past.
As for the dwindling supply on exchanges: i'm more of a technical guy, i don't really care for (market) economics, but i've always assumed that less supply + more demand = higher prices 8)
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I have two important observations on the bitcoin exchange reverse chart. In 2021, the reserve decreased severely, and the price of Bitcoin reacted directly to this decrease, as after the decline continued for more than several months, the price began to interact and rise, while in 2023 this did not happen, and despite the decrease in the reserve, the price React much less, and the reason for this is that you only look at the supply side, not the demand.
If what happened in 2021 is repeated and ETFs continue to buy Bitcoin, a surrender will occur within 5 to 8 months. Then, if demand increases, the price will inevitably explode, and the ATH will be in Q1 2025. If that does not happen, the price will increase, and the ATH will be composed of two peaks.
The crypto winter 2022-2023 is a bit different from previous crypto winters: BTC price decreased but the number of BTC on CEXs did not increase. Whether the reason is the fear from the FTX crash or the trend of self-custody and participation in DeFi services for BTC, the fact remains that the market behavior has changed, I hope this is positive for the crypto market maturity, not a trick/trap from Market Maker.
Back to the price prediction when the supply crisis/shock will come in the future: in my prediction, I expect that the cyclicality of BTC price will continue to repeat and we have a peak in November 2025, about 18-20 months after BTC halving. I cannot predict its specific trajectory, but the similarity of price movements in 2023 and 2015 gives me a hint: BTC price in 2024-2025 will increase steadily as in 2016-2017.
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If all the data and information as said is actually correct, then it's obvious that the price of Bitcoin will definitely reach an all-time high. Although throughout last year, there has been high speculation regarding the price of Bitcoin skyrocketing, which i also believe that the price of Bitcoin will surely explode like you said.
The fact is that, since 2021 up until date, I know that the rule of "Not your key, not your coin. " Have overly spread in the space, and investors are now putting off their holdings from CEX. Another thing that led to that is because of some exchange hacks and collapses that have happened around the same time, so people have more reasons not to trust CEX.
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As for the dwindling supply on exchanges: i'm more of a technical guy, i don't really care for (market) economics, but i've always assumed that less supply + more demand = higher prices 8)
There may be another reason, which is that someone who buys in large quantities does not want to influence the market, so he buys from OTC, or he wants to influence the price, so he sells on the crypto exchange.
The supply of Bitcoin, especially on a crypto exchange, can be manipulated, but the more the value of Bitcoin increases, the more billions you need to make such a risk.
I have two important observations on the bitcoin exchange reverse chart. In 2021, the reserve decreased severely, and the price of Bitcoin reacted directly to this decrease, as after the decline continued for more than several months, the price began to interact and rise, while in 2023 this did not happen, and despite the decrease in the reserve, the price React much less, and the reason for this is that you only look at the supply side, not the demand.
The crypto winter 2022-2023 is a bit different from previous crypto winters: BTC price decreased but the number of BTC on CEXs did not increase. Whether the reason is the fear from the FTX crash or the trend of self-custody and participation in DeFi services for BTC, the fact remains that the market behavior has changed, I hope this is positive for the crypto market maturity, not a trick/trap from Market Maker.
The sale of bitcoins that LUNA had also had an impact, but I hold the reason that we did not see the price of $100,000 to the collapse of FTX. They caused severe damage to the rising wave.
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its still insane to see someone will sell in OTC at current price. if these hodlers expect price to hit 150 next year. its a loss.
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Yes, they know that buying directly from the stock exchange will cause prices to rise excessively due to increased demand, so they buy outside the market to get a good price.
But as you indicated, this will not continue until the end because they will finally have to resort to exchanges to obtain the required amounts of Bitcoin. This will probably coincide with halving, which is just around the corner, so I expect that there will be a large demand during the coming months, especially with the reduction in rewards by half. This means We will get an ATH that exceeds all historical numbers for Bitcoin.
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Crisis? What crisis? I understand what the OP says but for us this is a great opportunity. There is going to be a reduction in supply and demand is going to go up. We know what this leads to. Those who don't have much bitcoin can take advantage of this to accumulate even more. We are on the verge of a bullish market. We have to take advantage of it and enjoy it.
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This is a very good post. If more people are not selling and more people are buying, that means the price of bitcoin has to increase for more people to be encouraged to sell. That means the price of bitcoin will increase. After halving, bitcoin miners will most likely also not selling their new mined coins and all these will increase bitcoin price.
Regardless of the reasons for the decline (investors are taking their Bitcoin off exchanges and storing it in private wallets, or moving their Bitcoin to lending platforms in order to earn interest)
All the lending platforms are centralized. Their APR are very small and lending bitcoin is risky. It is better to just hold your coins on noncustodial wallet and have full control than depending on platforms like exchanges that can later disappoint you.
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Pretty much every Bitcoin market analyst I've heard shared the same view as expressed in the OP, to the point I'm starting to feel sceptical. It all sounds too easy and too predictable.
It doesn't supprise me many people started holding their funds in a non-custodial wallet, after the many hacks, phishin and (exit)scams pulled by centralised exchanges in the past.
This. And to add, the biggest exchange, Binance, was getting bashed left and right and pushed off many markets. A lot of their customers either moved to other exchanges or withdrew to non-custodial wallets out of fears of regulators freezing Binance funds etc.
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Crisis? What crisis? I understand what the OP says but for us this is a great opportunity. There is going to be a reduction in supply and demand is going to go up. We know what this leads to. Those who don't have much bitcoin can take advantage of this to accumulate even more.
I think OP refers to Bitcoin halving. When the Bitcoin halving happens, there is a reduction of Bitcoin circulating supply in the market. When we have less of circulating supply Bitcoin in the market, the price should be encouraged to rise up significantly. However, it may be not happening immediately, Bitcoin needs time to skyrocket. Bitcoin probably reaches the new ATH after few months of Bitcoin halving.
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Crisis? What crisis? I understand what the OP says but for us this is a great opportunity. There is going to be a reduction in supply and demand is going to go up. We know what this leads to. Those who don't have much bitcoin can take advantage of this to accumulate even more.
I think OP refers to Bitcoin halving. When the Bitcoin halving happens, there is a reduction of Bitcoin circulating supply in the market. When we have less of circulating supply Bitcoin in the market, the price should be encouraged to rise up significantly. However, it may be not happening immediately, Bitcoin needs time to skyrocket. Bitcoin probably reaches the new ATH after few months of Bitcoin halving.
It's going to be scarce, as bitcoin supply will dwindle this very upcoming halving. But I don't consider it as a crisis, that's why Bitcoin was design by Satoshi and that's why the price keeps on going up every after halving because everyone wanted their hands on a assets which the supply is going down.
And as we can see, this is where the genius and brilliant mind of Satoshi came in, as he include the basic economic concept in crypto, supply and demand, as the allocation of Bitcoin will really have everyone fighting it out just to get a few sats very the value are going to increase overtime.
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I don't think so if a decline in Bitcoin holdings on the exchange influences the price.
There will always be buyers and sellers in the market, and there will be no lack of them.
Even while the ETF's acceptance has a significant impact on Bitcoin's price, we must remember that it does not hold half of the supply. Meaning, ETF approval is being utilized as a go signal for someone to invest in Bitcoin, most likely whales and other institutions.
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I don't think so if a decline in Bitcoin holdings on the exchange influences the price.
There will always be buyers and sellers in the market, and there will be no lack of them.
Even while the ETF's acceptance has a significant impact on Bitcoin's price, we must remember that it does not hold half of the supply. Meaning, ETF approval is being utilized as a go signal for someone to invest in Bitcoin, most likely whales and other institutions.
As the demand to buy and own BTC increases thanks to growing price movements and positive media news related to Spot ETF and Halving, we will see an increase in buying pressure on CEXs. However, when the amount of BTC on CEXs is low, buyers will need to pay a higher price to be able to buy BTC. When the amount of BTC "wanted to buy and hold" is more than the amount of BTC "available", we will see an increase in BTC price.
I know that in the market there are always buyers and sellers, but when buyers are willing to pay a higher price, the price will increase.
Of course, we will always have the OTC market and holders will deposit BTC to CEXs to sell, but I would be optimistic about the positive impact of the scarcity of available supply on BTC price 🚀
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I don't think there's any economic activities that will slow down bitcoin adoption or affect the way people accept the uses for now, we can also consider the network, how the currency is being secured, the protocols that guide the usage, how should we then expect having more priority with things like bitcoin spot ETF to be the major reason why we should accept bitcoin for what it was or not just because of it's approval by the SEC, we should think about this and this has nothing to do with the supply, just as the rich couldn't hold the whole money into their possession.
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As the demand to buy and own BTC increases thanks to growing price movements and positive media news related to Spot ETF and Halving, we will see an increase in buying pressure on CEXs. However, when the amount of BTC on CEXs is low, buyers will need to pay a higher price to be able to buy BTC. When the amount of BTC "wanted to buy and hold" is more than the amount of BTC "available", we will see an increase in BTC price.
I know that in the market there are always buyers and sellers, but when buyers are willing to pay a higher price, the price will increase.
With some fiascos in cryptocurrency market in 2022 like Terra, FTX, then Voyager, Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi and more, people understood more about risk of storing bitcoin on centralized platforms. By this, they started to change their practice with more favorite choice is storing bitcoin in non custodial wallets. This led to drop of Bitcoin on exchanges that can contribute to supply shock.
A note is non custodial wallet is not enough, let's choose open source non custodial wallet.
Need wallet review especially on reproducibility which only is available with open source wallet, check
- https://walletscrutiny.com/
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If all the data and information as said is actually correct, then it's obvious that the price of Bitcoin will definitely reach an all-time high. Although throughout last year, there has been high speculation regarding the price of Bitcoin skyrocketing, which i also believe that the price of Bitcoin will surely explode like you said.
All the information in OP are very much verifiable and they are correct. I keenly followed up the article. Although most of the things said in OP above are the things I have already known. So it wasn't difficult for me to verify op.
The fact is that, since 2021 up until date, I know that the rule of "Not your key, not your coin. " Have overly spread in the space, and investors are now putting off their holdings from CEX. Another thing that led to that is because of some exchange hacks and collapses that have happened around the same time, so people have more reasons not to trust CEX.
It is true that the crusade of Not your keys Not your coins yielded results and it is still yielding results. But it is not enough to reduce upto 34%. The effect of Not your Keys Not your coins crusade is almost cancelled by newbies who troop into the industry.
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I don't think so if a decline in Bitcoin holdings on the exchange influences the price.
There will always be buyers and sellers in the market, and there will be no lack of them.
Even while the ETF's acceptance has a significant impact on Bitcoin's price, we must remember that it does not hold half of the supply. Meaning, ETF approval is being utilized as a go signal for someone to invest in Bitcoin, most likely whales and other institutions.
As the demand to buy and own BTC increases thanks to growing price movements and positive media news related to Spot ETF and Halving, we will see an increase in buying pressure on CEXs. However, when the amount of BTC on CEXs is low, buyers will need to pay a higher price to be able to buy BTC. When the amount of BTC "wanted to buy and hold" is more than the amount of BTC "available", we will see an increase in BTC price.
I know that in the market there are always buyers and sellers, but when buyers are willing to pay a higher price, the price will increase.
Of course, we will always have the OTC market and holders will deposit BTC to CEXs to sell, but I would be optimistic about the positive impact of the scarcity of available supply on BTC price 🚀
Centralized and Decentralized Exchanges are both have contribution to the price movement of cryptocurrencies because this is the only place you can sell your crypto such as Bitcoin. By the way, you can be able to sell your assets through P2P but it really couldn't affect directly the price of Bitcoin as it's just like you are transferring assets to different wallet. So if there's shortage of supply (this doesn't mean that there's a running out of supply in the exchanges just there's no sellers that are willing to sell) then the probably the demand is high which makes the price to increase.
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I understand what the OP says but for us this is a great opportunity. There is going to be a reduction in supply and demand is going to go up.
There is not going to be a reduction in supply, there is going to be a reduction in the growth of the supply!
And, why would demand go up, there is no crystal ball that can tell that for sure, maybe demand will go down and we go in bear market again!
I'm a bit worried everyone takes this growth for being like written in stone!
Additionally, we have the BTC halving coming up in April[3]. The supply of new BTC will be halved, meaning there will be less new BTC for investors and Spot ETFs funds to buy.
I firmly believe that with 3 impacts: increased demand, reduced available supply on CEXs and halved new supply, BTC price will soon explode and create a new ATH right in 2024. For me, the short-term BTC price fluctuations are not a concern, I believe we are in the first steps of the 2024 bullrun and BTC could reach at least $150K in 2025.
Want to hear something funny?
We already had a reverse thirdening! And it got unnoticed!
People say that because there will be less new Bitcoins for sale the price will go up, but look at this:
We're at 40k producing 900 coins a day, so after the halving we will need only 18 millions to cover the newly minted coins instead of 36 millions previously, so if the price was stable with these numbers it means that half of the daily investment sum will go towards buying old coins triggering a growth in overall price!
Pretty solid reasoning.
Now, back in November the coin was at 15k, 900 a day so we needed only 13.5 millions for daily coins coins issuance!
So, in November we had $13.5 millions worth of coins being printed each day, after the halvening we will have $18 million!
If you look from this perspective, the reduction, well, it's not there!
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Now, back in November the coin was at 15k, 900 a day so we needed only 13.5 millions for daily coins coins issuance!
So, in November we had $13.5 millions worth of coins being printed each day, after the halvening we will have $18 million!
If you look from this perspective, the reduction, well, it's not there!
Solid point, but the logic behind the expectations of the price growth is simplified and does not include historical price actions (I assume you meant Nov 2022?).
So, all other factors aside, if we assume that the market can absorb 6.25 new bitcoins every 10 mins without causing a drop in price, than slashing it down to 3.125 should increase the price if the demand remains constant.
Obviously the reality is more nuanced than that.
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Solid point, but the logic behind the expectations of the price growth is simplified and does not include historical price actions (I assume you meant Nov 2022?).
So, all other factors aside, if we assume that the market can absorb 6.25 new bitcoins every 10 mins without causing a drop in price, than slashing it down to 3.125 should increase the price if the demand remains constant.
Obviously the reality is more nuanced than that.
Increasing the price of Bitcoin is not as easy as you say because if you have to buy Bitcoin in large quantities and the price always goes up then it will be difficult to buy Bitcoin because the price is too expensive, you should just follow the flow and don't expect too much to get Bitcoin at a high price because if too quickly to increase the price of Bitcoin will be very dangerous.
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Solid point, but the logic behind the expectations of the price growth is simplified and does not include historical price actions (I assume you meant Nov 2022?).
We could do this for October 2023, based on the coin per per day we produced $24 million, now we're producing $36 million, so a halving will put us just 25% below that in decline of investment needed.
So, all other factors aside, if we assume that the market can absorb 6.25 new bitcoins every 10 mins without causing a drop in price, than slashing it down to 3.125 should increase the price if the demand remains constant.
The supply in BTC alone is irrelevant to a price action if we don't count the price per coin!
If the markets find an equilibrium between daily supply and new investment at 60k for example then a jump to 120k will negate the 50%. Anything over it would mean more money printed every day, far more than the current new investment, and you know pretty well what happens when offer exceeds demand. ;)
Simply put, every penny extra to the price means 450 extra pennies a day needed.
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Solid point, but the logic behind the expectations of the price growth is simplified and does not include historical price actions (I assume you meant Nov 2022?).
So, all other factors aside, if we assume that the market can absorb 6.25 new bitcoins every 10 mins without causing a drop in price, than slashing it down to 3.125 should increase the price if the demand remains constant.
Obviously the reality is more nuanced than that.
Increasing the price of Bitcoin is not as easy as you say because if you have to buy Bitcoin in large quantities and the price always goes up then it will be difficult to buy Bitcoin because the price is too expensive, you should just follow the flow and don't expect too much to get Bitcoin at a high price because if too quickly to increase the price of Bitcoin will be very dangerous.
Don't get me wrong, but it we will have this kind of mindset, thinking that bitcoin is expensive or if we compare to early investors who thought that bitcoin will not go high or it's a failed experiment, then I guess it's wrong mentality. Of course we don't see the future so it's right not to expect too much.
But Bitcoin hasn't failed us right? every 4 years, right after the halving, it could be weeks or months, price will go on a "parabolic rise" (it might not be the definition of it, but we know that once the price starts to run, it's hard to stop). And this is how Satoshi design Bitcoin, halving every 4 years, and as a result, supply is limited but demand is doubling=> price going up in the bull cycle.
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Don't get me wrong, but it we will have this kind of mindset, thinking that bitcoin is expensive or if we compare to early investors who thought that bitcoin will not go high or it's a failed experiment, then I guess it's wrong mentality. Of course we don't see the future so it's right not to expect too much.
But Bitcoin hasn't failed us right? every 4 years, right after the halving, it could be weeks or months, price will go on a "parabolic rise" (it might not be the definition of it, but we know that once the price starts to run, it's hard to stop). And this is how Satoshi design Bitcoin, halving every 4 years, and as a result, supply is limited but demand is doubling=> price going up in the bull cycle.
Bitcoin has never disappointed those who trade well and correctly, but when they trade using the futures method, they will suffer losses if they place the wrong position. What needs to change is the way people think because expensive statements are relative because Bitcoin can be bought in fractions. whatever the amount, and you don't have to buy one Bitcoin, the price of which may be too high at the moment, but if you have money that is not being used, then putting it all into Bitcoin would be better because Bitcoin can be used as a place to store money without having to pay admin fees every month. If you are patient, profits will increase because the potential increase in Bitcoin prices will provide a lot of profit and increase the Bitcoin exchange rate you own.
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The supply in BTC alone is irrelevant to a price action if we don't count the price per coin!
If the markets find an equilibrium between daily supply and new investment at 60k for example then a jump to 120k will negate the 50%. Anything over it would mean more money printed every day, far more than the current new investment, and you know pretty well what happens when offer exceeds demand. ;)
Sure, but the logic is: if there's an equilibrium at say $60k and issuance of 6.25/10 mins, then a fair assumption would be that equilibrium will move to a higher price (whatever it'll be) if the issuance rate is halved.
The real-life problem is there's no constant equilibrium, with price being dynamic and the market reacting to any news/rumours.
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There is not going to be a reduction in supply, there is going to be a reduction in the growth of the supply!
Yes, agreed, good point.
And, why would demand go up, there is no crystal ball that can tell that for sure, maybe demand will go down and we go in bear market again!
I put it to you the other way around: why shouldn't demand grow? Of course, we do not have a crystal ball, but this is not a question of magic. In the world of investments and markets nothing is certain, but those of us who hold bitcoin do so because we understand that it is highly likely that long-term demand will continue to grow at the same time as there is a reduction in the supply of new bitcoins, or the growth of supply as you put it. This will mean that, albeit with volatility, the price of bitcoin will continue to rise over the long term. However, profitability is likely to moderate as time goes on.
And I understand that you also hold some bitcoin and have a similar idea to this.
I'm a bit worried everyone takes this growth for being like written in stone!
Don't worry so much, those of us with a little knowledge don't think like that. Those who do are the ones who equally invest in bitcoin or in the latest cool altcoin because the youtuber of the moment told them so.
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I firmly believe that with 3 impacts: increased demand, reduced available supply on CEXs and halved new supply, BTC price will soon explode and create a new ATH right in 2024. For me, the short-term BTC price fluctuations are not a concern, I believe we are in the first steps of the 2024 bullrun and BTC could reach at least $150K in 2025.
I hope Bitcoin price will jup up to $120k-$150k in 2025 because I will be holding mine in that timeframe though not much but still better than nothing. 😁 The reduction of growth in supply will surely help the price to go to the moon so we need to keep calm in here acquiring more Bitcoins as possible and have patience.
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Crisis? What crisis? I understand what the OP says but for us this is a great opportunity. There is going to be a reduction in supply and demand is going to go up. We know what this leads to. Those who don't have much bitcoin can take advantage of this to accumulate even more.
I think OP refers to Bitcoin halving. When the Bitcoin halving happens, there is a reduction of Bitcoin circulating supply in the market. When we have less of circulating supply Bitcoin in the market, the price should be encouraged to rise up significantly. However, it may be not happening immediately, Bitcoin needs time to skyrocket. Bitcoin probably reaches the new ATH after few months of Bitcoin halving.
I think you have some misunderstand about Halving. Halving does not reduce the supply of bitcoin. it doesn't have to do with supply. there will always be 21 million bitcoins in circulation.
Halving reduce the block rewards that miners earn from each block they mine. halving makes bitcoin harder to mine. less bitcoin will be produce after every halving.
I hope that clears your confusion.
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I think you have some misunderstand about Halving. Halving does not reduce the supply of bitcoin. it doesn't have to do with supply. there will always be 21 million bitcoins in circulation.
Halving reduce the block rewards that miners earn from each block they mine. halving makes bitcoin harder to mine. less bitcoin will be produce after every halving.
I hope that clears your confusion.
Maybe logically but it does technically. Currently, bitcoin block reward is 6.25 per block which is been mine for an average of 10 minutes. Let's do some simple mathematics, if 6.25 is been mine, that means it's coming to circulation and in 24 hours, the bitcoin that will be mine will be 900 bitcoin. That's roughly $38 million worth of bitcoin miners generate everyday, we have not even consider the transaction fees.
If by next halving that is coming up. That reward is going to be reduce by halve, which means miners revenue will reduce to 450 per day and that has reduce the supply of bitcoin that will be coming to circulation and this will continue to reduce every 4 years until all the Bitcoin has been mine completely, this is how bitcoin supply is reduce by halving.
The hope is for Bitcoin price to continue to grow so that miners can enjoy mining and don't need to worry about the quantity of bitcoin they are getting from block reward.
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I firmly believe that with 3 impacts: increased demand, reduced available supply on CEXs and halved new supply, BTC price will soon explode and create a new ATH right in 2024. For me, the short-term BTC price fluctuations are not a concern, I believe we are in the first steps of the 2024 bullrun and BTC could reach at least $150K in 2025.
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What do you think about these impacts on BTC price in the long term? Is this just a trick of Market Maker? How much do you expect BTC price to reach in 2024-2025?
My expectations about the future BTC price are about the same. The long-awaited adoption of spot BTC-ETF and the upcoming BTC halving will probably be the decisive factors that will influence the BTC price and the entire crypto industry over the next few years. There is an assumption that BTC will be able to break the previous ATH this year, and we may see a peak as early as next year, i.e. the BTC price may well go above $100k or even $150k in 2025. Not sure about 2026.
Hmm, Quite a reasonable speculation for the price targets but as you've not mentioned 2026, here comes a point the Bull mostly never lasts longer if we consider 2026 as well in the Bull rally it's not logical, at least based on the previous market cycles the market Bull rally lasts only around 8 months to 1.5 years. After this rally market usually adopts the re-entry in the market cycle and distribution, capitulation, and accumulation zones are followed in the cycle respectively.
I'm quite optimistic on the price target of 80k for thee Bitcoin to be achieved by the end of 2024 lets hope for much better.
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that's normal, during halving bitcoin supply will decrease because mining rewards cut a half.
It will make the bitcoin price goes up. Many investors are waiting this moment. They believe after halving bitcoin price will soar. bitcoin halving has been predicted will happen at April this year.
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The Bitcoin Supply Crisis issue is highly related to the Bitcoin price but the supply of Bitcoin is decreasing day by day especially the circulating supply will definitely decrease. There is no possibility of total supply crisis because total supply is fixed. However, if the circulating supply falls into a crisis, then the price of Bitcoin will increase significantly due to the supply crisis in the future. In this case, after the next 10 years, the price of Bitcoin will never be below one hundred thousand dollars.
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The Bitcoin Supply Crisis issue is highly related to the Bitcoin price but the supply of Bitcoin is decreasing day by day especially the circulating supply will definitely decrease.
False, the supply is increasing each day and it will continue to do so after the halving.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
Right now the rate of growth (or inflation) is ~1.7%
Also, at a rate of 450 coins produced each day it's hard to believe 450 will be also lost each day to decrease both the total supply and the circulation supply.
In this case, after the next 10 years, the price of Bitcoin will never be below one hundred thousand dollars.
Why not 100k and not 200k or 50k? ;D
that's normal, during halving bitcoin supply will decrease because mining rewards cut a half.
Nope, see above, the supply doesn't decrease!
I wonder why this is starting to become something of a myth and who did start this decreasing supply thing in the first place!
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Yeah , supply doesn't decrease but reward of mining will be cut a half. I think It's not about crisis, maybe demand and will so high during halving until bullish season, it will make the price goes up.Everyone wait this moment, bitcoin will touch ne ATH.
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BlackRock and Spot ETFs funds will also suffer the same fate: it is not easy to buy BTC at low prices!
Large companies will also think several times if they sell Bitcoin at a low price because it is very difficult to buy Bitcoin back at a low price.
There are many statements from rich people, famous people and artists that buying Bitcoin is like buying land in the real world and Bitcoin is land in digital assets.
Land in the real world is also very limited for us to own, the more people there are, the more demand there is to purchase land and then the price of land becomes expensive.
It's the same with Bitcoin, which is of great interest to everyone, but the supply is limited to only 21 million and then the price of Bitcoin automatically rises, as we now see in the cryptocurrency market.
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What do you think about these impacts on BTC price in the long term? Is this just a trick of Market Maker? How much do you expect BTC price to reach in 2024-2025?
GrayScale will stop selling.
BlackRock and the remaining ETF funds continue to buy.
BTC Halving reduces the block reward in half.
Market sentiment is gradually becoming positive and believes in the market's recovery within the 4-year cycle.
All of these factors will create strong buying pressure and the first place to receive buying pressure is CEXs. If CEXs have little BTC to trade, the auction mechanism will push the BTC price very high in a short time when everyone wants to buy and hold BTC.
I think the BTC price will have strong upward fluctuations in Q4 of this year, as increased scarcity permeates the market and investor psychology.
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~snip~
I firmly believe that with 3 impacts: increased demand, reduced available supply on CEXs and halved new supply, BTC price will soon explode and create a new ATH right in 2024. For me, the short-term BTC price fluctuations are not a concern, I believe we are in the first steps of the 2024 bullrun and BTC could reach at least $150K in 2025.
Every halving has had an effect on the price so far, and for now we have no reason to doubt that it will not be the same this time. However, if we are to be realistic, the actual impact of the halving has less and less influence on the market, considering that miners have less and less coins that they can sell.
What they currently mine is about 27 000 BTC per month, and after the halving it will be only 13 500 BTC per month, which is actually just dust compared to the 19.6 million BTC that have been mined so far. Of course, the psychological impact of halving is still present in the minds of most people, and that's why we can hope that history will repeat itself.
What do you think about these impacts on BTC price in the long term? Is this just a trick of Market Maker? How much do you expect BTC price to reach in 2024-2025?
Spot ETFs are still an unknown if we look at the long term, because some say that all this inflow of BTC into the funds is nothing but a consequence of the initial enthusiasm and that it will slow down significantly as time goes on, but if it is true that the number of BTC on CEXs has decreased significantly in recent years, the question is how much the funds can absorb and thus cause the demand to become greater than the supply. It is difficult to speculate about the new ATH, but I hope that it will be at least x2 or x3 of the last ATH, which would mean from $150k to $200k, although Bitcoin can always surprise us and achieve much more.
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Yeah , supply doesn't decrease but reward of mining will be cut a half. I think It's not about crisis, maybe demand and will so high during halving until bullish season, it will make the price goes up.Everyone wait this moment, bitcoin will touch ne ATH.
There is no BTC crisis yet maybe it will only happen once all a 21million bitcoin is totally mined but since only block halving is coming I don't think we will see a crisis in Bitcoin after block halving. Since the demand increase or even stable after the block reward become half the value of Bitcoin will still be rise there is no difference on what happen to the past block halving it should be still the same as what will happen this coming blockhalving.
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There is no BTC crisis yet maybe it will only happen once all a 21million bitcoin is totally mined but since only block halving is coming I don't think we will see a crisis in Bitcoin after block halving.
~snip~
Why would this happen only around 2140 if we know that in less than 10 years we will have around 99% of all BTC mined and that only 1% will remain for the next 100 years? If the demand is constant and increases even more, we can assume that some kind of crisis of this type will happen, maybe even before the end of this decade.
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Why would this happen only around 2140 if we know that in less than 10 years we will have around 99% of all BTC mined and that only 1% will remain for the next 100 years? If the demand is constant and increases even more, we can assume that some kind of crisis of this type will happen, maybe even before the end of this decade.
When the circulation of Bitcoin has reached its limit, the price will not make sense because it will definitely be very expensive, and of course altcoins will be an alternative substitute for carrying out cryptocurrency transactions. Therefore, as I often say, Bitcoin has a very limited supply, so you have to be able to use it well until you can't get Bitcoin from miners anymore because one day if that happens, it will make you very rich.
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Thank you for your great content. I have similar ideas. Also, miners' rewards will decrease after the halving. They are also a significant sales pressure. Also, I think the $150k you've set with the trend on the chart is a very reasonable and logical target. I think it's a topic that knows what it's doing. I also agree with you on the timing. I hope 2024 will be a new ATH year.
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This supposed "crisis" is a double-edged sword. We will see those who try to jump on the bandwagon when the price skyrockets and they will pay dearly for each Bitcoin they want to buy. On the other hand, we will see those who have held their Bitcoins for years seeing their funds increase while hesitating whether or not to sell while waiting for higher prices. It will be the same as in the cycles to which we are accustomed, but on a much larger scale, so the supposed “crisis”, if it exists, will not be bad.
I also believe that (as it could not be otherwise) at that time, we will see other smear campaigns towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, with the intention of sowing panic to lower the price and be able to buy, something that unfortunately we have also seen too many times.
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When the circulation of Bitcoin has reached its limit, the price will not make sense because it will definitely be very expensive,
Why?
Do you know that the whole gold coin usage is mostly a blown out of proportion thing and gold coins weren't actually that used during both ancient and medieval times? Their value was so large that msot of the time silver was used and it wasn't uncommon to split even silver coins in two or four pieces, they were even manufacturing those:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farthing_(English_coin)
so you have to be able to use it well until you can't get Bitcoin from miners anymore because one day if that happens, it will make you very rich.
Makes no sense. It would be just like if the CB would top printing money you wouldn't be able to use dollars, I have a feeling you're mistaken bitcoin mining for oil fracking.
Why would this happen only around 2140 if we know that in less than 10 years we will have around 99% of all BTC mined and that only 1% will remain for the next 100 years? If the demand is constant and increases even more, we can assume that some kind of crisis of this type will happen, maybe even before the end of this decade.
I don't understand why is everyone that much focused on a time out of our lifespan or even short term when we will have just 112BTC mined a day instead of 900BTC and not on the amount that might hit the markets if the value doubles. I mean who cares at let's go overboard with it, 1 million per coin after halving , about 450 million daily printed money when there would be 20 trillions!!!! that might be sold so that finally some can buy their lambos or have sex for the first time with an escort that is not an STD encyclopedia! ;)
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(...)
I wonder why this is starting to become something of a myth and who did start this decreasing supply thing in the first place!
I think you equate supply with the number of bitcoins in existence, but that's not necessarily how other people define that term.
Some may understand it as a number of new bitcoins supplied by the miners, others as a number of bitcoins available for sale. For the latter, assuming a lot of buyers would buy as a long-term holding with no intention to re-sell immediately (so taking bitcoins off the market), then the number of bitcoins available for sale could indeed decrease after the halving.
Or maybe it's just a flaw in perception, similar to how people think the drop in inflation rate will make prices of goods go down.
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I don't think that liquidity is that low, specially not during bull runs neither, so it should not be all that much important if we end up with less mined, because there are a lot that is traded. If yo usee billions traded in the crypto space every day, then maybe not worry about the supply crisis just yet. I get that the price will go up and will be more valuable, but that's just investment, considering people ar ebuying and holding gold as well, its never been a crisis, its just price increase, how the market works. I a mglad that we will have less supply compared to more demand, that will only result with higher price and no problems.
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Thank you for your great content. I have similar ideas. Also, miners' rewards will decrease after the halving. They are also a significant sales pressure. Also, I think the $150k you've set with the trend on the chart is a very reasonable and logical target. I think it's a topic that knows what it's doing. I also agree with you on the timing. I hope 2024 will be a new ATH year.
Back to the topic when the Bitcoin supply is increasingly limited and increasingly difficult to obtain because I believe miners will find it difficult to obtain Bitcoin and because the power they need will be higher and of course it will increase miner costs. In cases like this, the more difficult it will be for an item to be priced, it will get more expensive, and Bitcoin should be like that. Only time will tell when that happens. For whales, $150k is a small number because when Bitcoin can no longer be produced by miners, it will make the price of Bitcoin infinite.
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Thank you for your great content. I have similar ideas. Also, miners' rewards will decrease after the halving. They are also a significant sales pressure. Also, I think the $150k you've set with the trend on the chart is a very reasonable and logical target. I think it's a topic that knows what it's doing. I also agree with you on the timing. I hope 2024 will be a new ATH year.
How do you comfortably call $150k to be reach. Don't act like people don't understand what they are doing in t h e market, if Bitcoin price should go to a 150k today, many will move their bitcoin to the market and take their profit. You see that silent that everyone is doing and acting like they will not sell right now? Wait for any bad news to come, it will take them less than some seconds to sell their bags and then join the crowd to dumb bitcoin to lower price and buy again.
In my mind, I want that to happen but the market don't care about what you think, it will do what everyone want and we know even some miners will soon dump their bags and act surprised that they don't know what's happening.
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Back to the topic when the Bitcoin supply is increasingly limited and increasingly difficult to obtain because I believe miners will find it difficult to obtain Bitcoin and because the power they need will be higher and of course it will increase miner costs.
That's not how things work, miners don't need higher power or anything else, miners work on a simple relation:
revenue per terahash/s , cost for running a terahash/s
The revenue will be cut in half , but you're forgetting the price increase.
So if I was getting 0.00000160 BTC per day at 30k that's 0.0480 cents and paying 0.04 cents power
with btc after halving but at 100k
I'm getting 0.00000080 BTC at 100k, that's 0.08 cents and paying still paying 0.04 power.
See how sudenly from making 0.008 I'm making 0.04 in profit so 5 times more?
For whales, $150k is a small number because when Bitcoin can no longer be produced by miners, it will make the price of Bitcoin infinite.
That will not happen for 100 years and above I've just showed you how "infinite" is impossible! ;)
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I don't think that liquidity is that low, specially not during bull runs neither, so it should not be all that much important if we end up with less mined, because there are a lot that is traded. If yo usee billions traded in the crypto space every day, then maybe not worry about the supply crisis just yet. I get that the price will go up and will be more valuable, but that's just investment, considering people ar ebuying and holding gold as well, its never been a crisis, its just price increase, how the market works. I a mglad that we will have less supply compared to more demand, that will only result with higher price and no problems.
Those who have a lot of money will find it easy to buy as much Bitcoin as they can, but when the price is too high and the supply they have runs out, investors will reconsider buying and prefer to hold the Bitcoin assets they own and may enter altcoins. and try to grow assets by trading altcoins because the price is still affordable.
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(...)
I wonder why this is starting to become something of a myth and who did start this decreasing supply thing in the first place!
I think you equate supply with the number of bitcoins in existence, but that's not necessarily how other people define that term.
People can choose to define how they want it doesn't change the actual definition:
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/supply
a stock or amount of something supplied or available for use
Some may understand it as a number of new bitcoins supplied by the miners, others as a number of bitcoins available for sale. For the latter, assuming a lot of buyers would buy as a long-term holding with no intention to re-sell immediately (so taking bitcoins off the market), then the number of bitcoins available for sale could indeed decrease after the halving.
Assuming we would have another China episode, the hashrate goes down to 50% and we have half of the usual mined blocks, will he supply go down? Assuming miners choose not to sell their coins, does the supply go down to zero? ;D
The supply is the total number of coins available, the 900 soon to be 450 is the daily increase, the total supply will not go down for years unless we assume somebody will make a mistake of sending more than 500 coins a day to wrong addresses or losing seed phrases worth that much.
Or maybe it's just a flaw in perception, similar to how people think the drop in inflation rate will make prices of goods go down.
Not maybe, exactly! ;)
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Those who have a lot of money will find it easy to buy as much Bitcoin as they can, but when the price is too high and the supply they have runs out, investors will reconsider buying and prefer to hold the Bitcoin assets they own and may enter altcoins. and try to grow assets by trading altcoins because the price is still affordable.
you are right, if supply has run out, investors will switch to altcoins. But we have to think, when the supply of bitcoin experiences a crisis while demand is high, the price of bitcoin will rise high and so will altcoins. We have to be careful when buying coins, because we will be trapped in high prices if suddenly the crypto dumps.
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I don't think that liquidity is that low, specially not during bull runs neither, so it should not be all that much important if we end up with less mined, because there are a lot that is traded. If yo usee billions traded in the crypto space every day, then maybe not worry about the supply crisis just yet. I get that the price will go up and will be more valuable, but that's just investment, considering people ar ebuying and holding gold as well, its never been a crisis, its just price increase, how the market works. I a mglad that we will have less supply compared to more demand, that will only result with higher price and no problems.
Those who have a lot of money will find it easy to buy as much Bitcoin as they can, but when the price is too high and the supply they have runs out, investors will reconsider buying and prefer to hold the Bitcoin assets they own and may enter altcoins. and try to grow assets by trading altcoins because the price is still affordable.
If the price of bitcoin is too high and demand is low, investors will definitely turn to potential altcoins, Altcoins are alternative coins so this is an alternative choice if the price of bitcoin is too high and limits are limited and investors are afraid when the price of bitcoin falls
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We are witnessing a BTC Supply Crisis on exchange that is partially shown by Bitcoin Exchange Balance Drop since Day 1 of Bitcoin Spot ETF trading.
The rate of balance drop is quite significant and it's very less chance that people spent money to invest in shares of those Bitcoin Spot ETFs will take profit before the halving or shortly after the halving that is estimated to happen in April (next 58 days). [1]
Charts are from Coinglass https://www.coinglass.com/Balance
[1] https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
(https://i.ibb.co/VxgjRjX/Bitcoin-Exchange-Balance.png) (https://www.coinglass.com/Balance)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG_h8_0XgAANu2H?format=jpg&name=900x900) (https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1760874421013577884)
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We are witnessing a BTC Supply Crisis on exchange
No we're not!
If we had a supply crisis we would have people paying 75k per Bitcoin and still not be able to get their coins!
What we have now is less coins available on exchnges but at the same time a low demand compared to that, which keeps the price stable.
You can't have a supply crisis with the price going down, that's not how it works, you could have one barrel of oil produced in all the world , if the price is now 10% lower than yesterday it doesn't mean it's a supply crisis, it means that despite producing 1/100million before there is still too much available for sale!
If the price of bitcoin is too high and demand is low, investors will definitely turn to potential altcoins, Altcoins are alternative coins so this is an alternative choice if the price of bitcoin is too high and limits are limited and investors are afraid when the price of bitcoin falls
So you're telling me people don't buy Nvidia shares because they are at $800 and instead go for Equinor cause those are just $25?
The altcoins market never moves without Bitcoin and it will never do so!
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Crisis? What crisis? I understand what the OP says but for us this is a great opportunity. There is going to be a reduction in supply and demand is going to go up.
We all know that OP refers to the Bitcoin halving. When Bitcoin halving happens, the circulating supply will be decreasing a lot while the demand is high. In this moment, Bitcoin will increase the price significantly, many people may sell their Bitcoin at that time. I also prepare to sell my Bitcoin if there is a pump during Bitcoin halving. I will buy again when there is a dump after the Bitcoin halving.
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We all know that OP refers to the Bitcoin halving. When Bitcoin halving happens, the circulating supply will be decreasing a lot while the demand is high. In this moment, Bitcoin will increase the price significantly, many people may sell their Bitcoin at that time. I also prepare to sell my Bitcoin if there is a pump during Bitcoin halving. I will buy again when there is a dump after the Bitcoin halving.
By writing this, you don't actually understand about Bitcoin halving.
Three things to note.
- Bitcoin total supply is fixed and finite. It is capped at 21 millions.
- Bitcoin circulating supply will increase with time until 2140 when all 21 million bitcoins mined. Whenever there are new bitcoins from new Bitcoin blocks as block subsidy, there will be new bitcoins added in its circulating supply.
- New (future) supply, it will become less and less with each 210,000 Bitcoin blocks (halving). This is what you are discussing, not circulating supply.
This supposed "crisis" is a double-edged sword. We will see those who try to jump on the bandwagon when the price skyrockets and they will pay dearly for each Bitcoin they want to buy. On the other hand, we will see those who have held their Bitcoins for years seeing their funds increase while hesitating whether or not to sell while waiting for higher prices. It will be the same as in the cycles to which we are accustomed, but on a much larger scale, so the supposed “crisis”, if it exists, will not be bad.
They hesitated to take profit with past cycles and even now but if they have private keys and access to their bitcoins, sooner or later, they will take profit.
Exception is only if they lost private keys and lost their bitcoins forever like people who did not move their bitcoins last 7years+
- https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/hodl-waves/
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They hesitated to take profit with past cycles and even now but if they have private keys and access to their bitcoins, sooner or later, they will take profit.
Exception is only if they lost private keys and lost their bitcoins forever like people who did not move their bitcoins last 7years+
- https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/hodl-waves/
They are already making profits even if they have not sold, and it is clear that at some point they will, the question is when and the overall consequences for the market. Regardless of when they do it, I don't think they will sell all their reserves, but rather they will do it in batches. Otherwise, they would harm themselves by causing the market to crash. I suppose they will wait the maximum time stipulated by each company or agent to sell, but seeing the current market situation and the next halving, with the consequent demand, it is likely that it will not take them long to start selling.
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well so far btc price has worked a bit like the tides.
a repetitive high then low then high then low.
each cycle a higher high and a higher low.
the value of the circulation coins is around 1 trillion.
so do we rise to two trillion for this high
then retreat to 800 million.
Or do we rise to three trillion then retreat.
Personally I think we top four trillion in the upcoming run. then maybe retreat to 1.5 trillion.
or 200k a coin in 2025 down to 60k a coin in 2026.
all this guessing is very hard. since high fee attacks and EFT are a new angle which could alter any guesses accuracy.
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They are already making profits even if they have not sold, and it is clear that at some point they will, the question is when and the overall consequences for the market. Regardless of when they do it, I don't think they will sell all their reserves, but rather they will do it in batches. Otherwise, they would harm themselves by causing the market to crash. I suppose they will wait the maximum time stipulated by each company or agent to sell, but seeing the current market situation and the next halving, with the consequent demand, it is likely that it will not take them long to start selling.
Yes, as you said, the profit that some people want to achieve certainly has various opinions. Maybe he wants to hold Bitcoin for a longer amount until the price reaches hundreds of thousands of dollars so that that way he can get a lot of profit.
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Yes, as you said, the profit that some people want to achieve certainly has various opinions. Maybe he wants to hold Bitcoin for a longer amount until the price reaches hundreds of thousands of dollars so that that way he can get a lot of profit.
One way in which large investment groups make profits is by selling in lots, date and previous purchase price. They sell Bitcoin in batches based on purchase dates and price and compare it to the X profit percentage. That way they will never have losses by having a calendar marked with the values they already have set. They should do things very badly to have losses. When selling this way, large groups need more time (and patience) from purchase to sale, but guarantee virtually risk-free profits.
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Yes, as you said, the profit that some people want to achieve certainly has various opinions. Maybe he wants to hold Bitcoin for a longer amount until the price reaches hundreds of thousands of dollars so that that way he can get a lot of profit.
Holding bitcoins for a longer time is the best way to earn bigger profits, but it requires a lot of capital. Where money is not needed for a long time. Some people just hold by buying when bearish and selling when bullish, hold for 4 years.
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One way in which large investment groups make profits is by selling in lots, date and previous purchase price. They sell Bitcoin in batches based on purchase dates and price and compare it to the X profit percentage. That way they will never have losses by having a calendar marked with the values they already have set. They should do things very badly to have losses. When selling this way, large groups need more time (and patience) from purchase to sale, but guarantee virtually risk-free profits.
With what you explained, I think it is simpler to assume that they have a clear portfolio to record all buying and selling transactions of cryptocurrency assets that have been carried out, patience is indeed an important point to gain profits and risk will always follow whatever you do in the world of cryptocurrency because When your money or assets go digital, you can't touch them anymore and have the potential to be lost.
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Yes, as you said, the profit that some people want to achieve certainly has various opinions. Maybe he wants to hold Bitcoin for a longer amount until the price reaches hundreds of thousands of dollars so that that way he can get a lot of profit.
Holding bitcoins for a longer time is the best way to earn bigger profits, but it requires a lot of capital. Where money is not needed for a long time. Some people just hold by buying when bearish and selling when bullish, hold for 4 years.
Yeah, from my personal experience as once a day trader, and as well have turned hodler, I would say that, hodling is the best way to make good amount of money in crypto, traders can make money, but a total profit a trader makes in give years, can be made in like 2, 3, 4 years of hodling, if the investor is lucky of course.
In Altcoins, the risk is higher than bitcoin, but the potentials is also very higher than bitcoin as well, as I have seen really lucky guys who buys an altcoin at a time it seems the altcoin is dead, but just within 30 to 60 days, that altcoins pumps so hard turning a hundred or less dollar investment into hundreds of thousands of dollar, and some times, even up to a million dollars.
Money is in crypto, and one can make the quickest of profit, not just with bitcoin but with altcoins as well if they are lucky, all I think it takes is, buy in to bitcoin or the altcoin at the right time before a major pump.
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Holding bitcoins for a longer time is the best way to earn bigger profits, but it requires a lot of capital. Where money is not needed for a long time. Some people just hold by buying when bearish and selling when bullish, hold for 4 years.
I think different.
We only need to manage our personal finance well, to invest in Bitcoin without pressure and stress that we will have to sell our bitcoins for cash because of emergencies.
An investor does not need to have big capital to invest. If I am a poor man, can afford to spend $1,000 for investment in Bitcoin, a profit like $1,000 will be very good for me. I don't have to chase for $100,000 or $1M profit like big investors.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GHlZpNQaoAEOtXQ?format=jpg&name=900x900) (https://twitter.com/ImNotTheWolf/status/1763539295930061042)
Demands from Bitcoin Spot ETFs will not dry soon and supply on OTC market declines a lot and more than that, Bitcoin halving will come in 51 more days.
We are going to see a supply shock, then price shock upwards.
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Yes, as you said, the profit that some people want to achieve certainly has various opinions. Maybe he wants to hold Bitcoin for a longer amount until the price reaches hundreds of thousands of dollars so that that way he can get a lot of profit.
Holding bitcoins for a longer time is the best way to earn bigger profits, but it requires a lot of capital. Where money is not needed for a long time. Some people just hold by buying when bearish and selling when bullish, hold for 4 years.
Yeah, from my personal experience as once a day trader, and as well have turned hodler, I would say that, hodling is the best way to make good amount of money in crypto, traders can make money, but a total profit a trader makes in give years, can be made in like 2, 3, 4 years of hodling, if the investor is lucky of course.
A holder only buys when bearish and holds for 3-4 years, the profits can be the same as a daily trader. We know that some investors choose to become holders because they are busy in the real world, and don't have time to become a daily trader. They have large amounts of money, so the assets they hold are very large. The profits generated during the bullish season are also very large.
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Holding bitcoins for a longer time is the best way to earn bigger profits, but it requires a lot of capital. Where money is not needed for a long time. Some people just hold by buying when bearish and selling when bullish, hold for 4 years.
The golden rule is that you do not invest anything that you are not ready to lose, which means that you only invest money that you do not need in your everyday life. The key is persistence in what you do and having a plan, and that is something that many people make mistakes in.
If you had invested only 5% of what you earned in the past 5 years on a monthly basis, I am sure that you would already have a very nice profit - and in the coming years that profit would increase even more.
A large capital is not something that is necessary in order to make a profit when it comes to investing in Bitcoin, because you will hardly find something that has such a great potential when it comes to increasing the price. For those who are young and can afford a long-term investment, regardless of the risk, I would rather risk investing in Bitcoin than retirement funds.
I don't know how it is in the rest of the world, but in most EU countries there is more and more talk about extending the working life even more - and we ordinary people already have a saying for that which reads "from the workplace to the cemetery".
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The golden rule is that you do not invest anything that you are not ready to lose, which means that you only invest money that you do not need in your everyday life. The key is persistence in what you do and having a plan, and that is something that many people make mistakes in.
I never liked that rule as it implies you can be un-invested, which is a wrong way of looking at things. Whenever you own anything of value, you're invested in something. Cash is no different, but it's one of the worst investments (except of some exceptional periods of recession etc), as you're guaranteed to lose value due to inflation.
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I never liked that rule as it implies you can be un-invested, which is a wrong way of looking at things. Whenever you own anything of value, you're invested in something.
And when the thing you invested is losing value you lose money, and when it goes Enron/Theranos/BitConnect you lose eveything.
One of my childhood friends poured in almost all of his money and a mortgage in a hair saloon for his wife to manage and a select coffee shop for him right next to it in the autumn of 2019, since you obviously know what happened next you can guess how their finances looked two years later! In theory he still had every single bit of he investment, in reality...
It would be foolish to believe that no matter what Bitcoin will NEVER suffer a major downturn exactly when you are in need of money!
I don't know how it is in the rest of the world, but in most EU countries there is more and more talk about extending the working life even more - and we ordinary people already have a saying for that which reads "from the workplace to the cemetery".
The European welfare model of pension is doomed, the private pension model or 401k are far better.
We're going to learn the hard way that you need to put money aside while you work, not wait for paychecks after you retire.
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I agree with the two points made by Stompix.
And when the thing you invested is losing value you lose money, and when it goes Enron/Theranos/BitConnect you lose eveything.
On of my childhood friends poured in almost all of his money and a mortgage in a hair saloon for his wife to manage and a select coffee shop for him right next to it in the autumn of 2019, since you obviously know what happened next you can guess how their finances looked two years later! In theory he still had every single bit of he investment, in reality...
It would be foolish to believe that no matter what Bitcoin will NEVER suffer a major downturn exactly when you are in need of money!
Although I see a major bitcoin downturn in the near future as unlikely, it cannot be ruled out. In the case of cash, it is true that it is a sure loss due to inflation, which is why it is not a good refuge for the long term. I particularly have cash savings, both for contingencies and for future expenses that I expect to make in less than a couple of years. What I lose due to inflation I take as a cost to pay for the security that when I need the money I will not find myself with 50% less due to a downturn in the market.
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The European welfare model of pension is doomed, the private pension model or 401k are far better.
We're going to learn the hard way that you need to put money aside while you work, not wait for paychecks after you retire.
The welfare state worked very well in Europe after WW2 and until a couple of decades ago. It was a time of expansion, starting with reconstruction, cheap energy and population growth. The pay-as-you-go pension system was put in place when people were living much shorter lives, and in many cases did not get their pensions. Also the birth rate was higher. Nowadays the low birth rate is only saved a little by immigration, and people are living much longer.
I don't think you can radically change the system in a short period of time, but you can leave state pensions as a minimum and encourage people to save for their pensions on their own.
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It is one of the main reasons why bitcoin prices usually go up during the bull periods as well. You can't really make it work in a way that you just keep having more and more bitcoin after the halving, even if people start to sell. We will have less, and that's the main reason why the price goes down. I honestly expect it to be something that could benefit us. Just realize that we are talking about something that may get us to profit, because bul run or even the hype around the bull run is the thing that makes it go up like this currently, and its going to keep growing more and more after the halving as well.
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I don't think you can radically change the system in a short period of time, but you can leave state pensions as a minimum and encourage people to save for their pensions on their own.
It will be impossible! I said it, although I always say nothing is impossible but this one...yeah, it is!
The change could theoretically happen in Norway, theoretically, because they have a low population and one huge private pension fund from all the oil, for the rest of the countries it's a simple no because, there is no money!!!
In order to get the money for the ones at 70+ now you need to tax the ones at 40s working, but this system would mean you stop taxing the ones working now and you put all their money in a 401k model so, where is the money for the ones in retirement going to come from?
Best case scenario, best overall economic environment, political consensus (impossible with all the socialists) and this would need at least 4 steps of slowly building it by one quarter of contributions spread over a decade, so no way we're going to see in our lifetime.
Of course there is a way, so complete financial meltdown, nothing is left, nuclear war, we go back to stone barter method, and you can start from that immediately but...again, we most probably won't be alive to see it happening.
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Yes, as you said, the profit that some people want to achieve certainly has various opinions. Maybe he wants to hold Bitcoin for a longer amount until the price reaches hundreds of thousands of dollars so that that way he can get a lot of profit.
Holding bitcoins for a longer time is the best way to earn bigger profits, but it requires a lot of capital. Where money is not needed for a long time. Some people just hold by buying when bearish and selling when bullish, hold for 4 years.
For me holding Bitcoins for a longer time really is the best way to earn bigger profits I totally agree with that but we can all do that depending on how much we have on our wallets it does not need to be huge because we can still do hold even in small amount of capital though it will result in small profit as well but yeah better than nothing. That is why we don't spend all our hard earned money to invest in the volatile market of Bitcoin but if we insist we have to manage it very well because trend will change in just a matter of seconds and we can't afford to lose it all. We need to have a stable source of income so our investments in Bitcoin won't be affected and we can hold it for long term.
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However, it seems the story is not so simple: the supply of BTC held on cryptocurrency exchanges has fallen to its lowest level in six years, according to data from Glassnode. This decline has raised c“The amount of Bitcoin [BTC] held on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since December 2017, according to on-chain data obtained from CryptoQuant halving countdown
Crypto exchanges I feel have a way of controlling the Bitcoin market because they also have a large volume of Bitcoin in their possession. So therefore, the drastic decline in volume on the possession of third party exchange makes some sense.
Not only that, crypto exchange can not guarantee ones assets safety and of lately there have been series of hack, information leakage pointing towards the third party exchange which does not really help matters. With all these, no one is guaranteed the safety of their assets with third party exchange hence the " not your keys, not your coin" slogan.
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Crypto exchanges I feel have a way of controlling the Bitcoin market because they also have a large volume of Bitcoin in their possession. So therefore, the drastic decline in volume on the possession of third party exchange makes some sense.
Control of bitcoin has been going on for years, all major crypto exchanges have long had bots that instantly buy or sell on other exchanges and equalize the exchange rate (making money on it) plus I think they can manipulate the price on purpose, as they have very large capitals and it is not a problem for them.
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Crypto exchanges I feel have a way of controlling the Bitcoin market because they also have a large volume of Bitcoin in their possession. So therefore, the drastic decline in volume on the possession of third party exchange makes some sense.
Control of bitcoin has been going on for years, all major crypto exchanges have long had bots that instantly buy or sell on other exchanges and equalize the exchange rate (making money on it) plus I think they can manipulate the price on purpose, as they have very large capitals and it is not a problem for them.
Yeah same with whales and private institutions they can also manipulate prices as they have full control on the market flow since thousands of traders are pouring their investments in most popular cryptocurrency exchanges around the world everyday.
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Crypto exchanges I feel have a way of controlling the Bitcoin market because they also have a large volume of Bitcoin in their possession. So therefore, the drastic decline in volume on the possession of third party exchange makes some sense.
Control of bitcoin has been going on for years, all major crypto exchanges have long had bots that instantly buy or sell on other exchanges and equalize the exchange rate (making money on it) plus I think they can manipulate the price on purpose, as they have very large capitals and it is not a problem for them.
Yeah same with whales and private institutions they can also manipulate prices as they have full control on the market flow since thousands of traders are pouring their investments in most popular cryptocurrency exchanges around the world everyday.
Whales have the capacity with their big money to manipulate prices. We must always unite the market, but if that happens there will only be a small correction. because other investors are enthusiastic about raising prices also by large amounts.
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~snip~
The European welfare model of pension is doomed, the private pension model or 401k are far better.
We're going to learn the hard way that you need to put money aside while you work, not wait for paychecks after you retire.
Unfortunately, most people don't want to believe that, even though they see how people who worked for 40 years live today. I believe that the situation in Western Europe is somewhat better, but in the East the minimum pensions are even less than 300 EUR, but the costs of living are not too different from those in Western Europe.
Bitcoin as an investment definitely makes sense, but it should be remembered that those who hold the levers of power can always say "Trading and owning Bitcoin is illegal", and most people blindly respect the laws and we know what that would mean for the price of BTC.
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This is being expected because the higher the demand is the lower the supply has meaning if this ETF succeeded more like how much are we seeing now?
with so much companies expected to enter soon.
the supply will indeed be in crisis and for all of that situation I think we as HODLERS will truly earn so much so keep up holding and try not to fall in wrong decisioning.
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For me holding Bitcoins for a longer time really is the best way to earn bigger profits I totally agree with that but we can all do that depending on how much we have on our wallets it does not need to be huge because we can still do hold even in small amount of capital though it will result in small profit as well but yeah better than nothing. That is why we don't spend all our hard earned money to invest in the volatile market of Bitcoin but if we insist we have to manage it very well because trend will change in just a matter of seconds and we can't afford to lose it all. We need to have a stable source of income so our investments in Bitcoin won't be affected and we can hold it for long term.
For investment, it depends on the economic conditions of the person doing it because I believe everyone has different economic conditions, so as you mentioned, don't force people to invest in Bitcoin with all the money they have because not everyone understands Bitcoin like that. you, when he does your suggestion but he only gets losses then it will only backfire on you and ruin your friendship.
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“The amount of Bitcoin [BTC] held on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since December 2017, according to on-chain data obtained from CryptoQuant.
The leading coin’s exchange reserve peaked at 3.08 million on 2nd March 2022, after which it began to decline. As of this writing, 2.01 million BTC remain on exchanges, representing a 34% decrease in the last three years.”[2]
Binance alone holds around half a million BTC. I was surprised when I saw that their reserve is also decreasing day by day. This is something we should be happy about. Reserves on exchanges decreasing means peoples are buying Bitcoin and exchanges had to sell their Bitcoin as well.
Moreover, there is a risk when a company or a person hold a big portion of Bitcoin. They would be able to manipulate the market. The scarcity will increase further when companies will buy more Bitcoins from the exchanges and the mining reward will be divided.
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Binance alone holds around half a million BTC. I was surprised when I saw that their reserve is also decreasing day by day.
~snip~
I wonder how accurate these data are, because a few years ago another CEX allegedly had about 1 million BTC in their wallets, and now they have a little less than 400 000 BTC. Given that CZ and its "traveling crypto currency company" are not doing very well lately, I wonder where they got so much BTC, that is, who has so much trust in them?
I would not be surprised if this information is the result of their dirty game of buying everything that can be bought with money, including the appearance of false liquidity.
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Yeah, supply and demand, bitcoin will probably soar if that's actually will happen. On the other note, bitcoin will likewise dump after a massive sell order from this institution. In which they will take their time to buy back again which sounds like market manipulation later on.
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Crypto exchanges I feel have a way of controlling the Bitcoin market because they also have a large volume of Bitcoin in their possession. So therefore, the drastic decline in volume on the possession of third party exchange makes some sense.
Control of bitcoin has been going on for years, all major crypto exchanges have long had bots that instantly buy or sell on other exchanges and equalize the exchange rate (making money on it) plus I think they can manipulate the price on purpose, as they have very large capitals and it is not a problem for them.
Yeah same with whales and private institutions they can also manipulate prices as they have full control on the market flow since thousands of traders are pouring their investments in most popular cryptocurrency exchanges around the world everyday.
Of course, you should not forget about them, sometimes even big whales or large financial institutions can manipulate markets more than stock exchanges, the main thing is to realize that the market is manipulated and not to try to go against the tide.
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I wonder how accurate these data are, because a few years ago another CEX allegedly had about 1 million BTC in their wallets, and now they have a little less than 400 000 BTC. Given that CZ and its "traveling crypto currency company" are not doing very well lately, I wonder where they got so much BTC, that is, who has so much trust in them?
I would not be surprised if this information is the result of their dirty game of buying everything that can be bought with money, including the appearance of false liquidity.
This is something good, buddy.
People are withdrawing their funds from exchanges. I guess exchanges were moving user funds to their reserve these days. Then, when they noticed that users were withdrawing their funds to their wallets, exchanges were forced to move those funds from their cold wallets to their hot wallets. That is just my assumption, as I do not have any back on my claims.
It could be possible that they have spent their money on expanding their business more and more. Binance have been developing new features for their platform and of course they have to spend money on those development.
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~snip~
It could be possible that they have spent their money on expanding their business more and more. Binance have been developing new features for their platform and of course they have to spend money on those development.
The profit that CEXs make is huge, and the wealth of CZ was estimated at $37 billion last year, so I have no doubt that there is enough money for everything that is needed. I don't know what kind of new features you mention because I don't use any CEX, but I think that what everyone who buys/sells needs already exists, although every business strives for new things, no matter how pointless it can be sometimes.
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We have been hearing a lot already since ever the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF a d this has a lot to contribute as well towards the present market condition, if we could remember well, immediately after the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF, the market already went down and that was a sign to tell us that it's going to prepare and plan well for the bullrun and we can see part of it's outcome in today's market performance, forget about the institutions holding, Bitcoin will always circulate and these people can take hold of the decentralized network for any purpose.
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~snip~
It could be possible that they have spent their money on expanding their business more and more. Binance have been developing new features for their platform and of course they have to spend money on those development.
The profit that CEXs make is huge, and the wealth of CZ was estimated at $37 billion last year, so I have no doubt that there is enough money for everything that is needed. I don't know what kind of new features you mention because I don't use any CEX, but I think that what everyone who buys/sells needs already exists, although every business strives for new things, no matter how pointless it can be sometimes.
I should say new product instead of new features. They have been investing in new ecosystems. They have released the web3 wallet feature in binance. Cloud mining through binance and many more that I don't remember at this moment. One thing I know is that they have a binance lab and they invest in most of the crypto projects as well. They are working on expanding Binance visa cards everywhere in the world. Surely these developments need money.
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I should say new product instead of new features. They have been investing in new ecosystems. They have released the web3 wallet feature in binance. Cloud mining through binance and many more that I don't remember at this moment. One thing I know is that they have a binance lab and they invest in most of the crypto projects as well. They are working on expanding Binance visa cards everywhere in the world. Surely these developments need money.
Is cloud mining still something that can be sold? I thought that it was a long overdue story from which everyone drew the same conclusion - that something like that cannot be profitable for the one who uses it, but only for the one who sells such a service.
I agree that development requires money, but I am sure that they do not lack money, there is more than enough of it, considering that they have been operating in the gray zone from the beginning - which will have its implications in the future, although we can already see that recently they are not doing well when it comes to punishments, whether it is monetary or even possible prison terms.
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Is cloud mining still something that can be sold? I thought that it was a long overdue story from which everyone drew the same conclusion - that something like that cannot be profitable for the one who uses it, but only for the one who sells such a service.
I agree that development requires money, but I am sure that they do not lack money—there is more than enough of it, considering that they have been operating in the gray zone from the beginning—which will have its implications in the future. However, we can already see that recently, they have not been doing well when it comes to punishments, whether monetary or even possible prison terms.
Most of the cloud mining things we have seen back in the old days were just pure scams. They had nothing. However, Binance has its mining pool and firm. You can rent their miners, and that's what they named cloud mining if I am not wrong. I haven't tried those things, but it is something they promoted as well.
About money, yeah. I also think they do not lack money. I just pointed out those development things because their reserves decreased a bit and we were wondering where they spend those money. I guess they have spend most of them on their new products.
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Crypto exchanges I feel have a way of controlling the Bitcoin market because they also have a large volume of Bitcoin in their possession. So therefore, the drastic decline in volume on the possession of third party exchange makes some sense.
Control of bitcoin has been going on for years, all major crypto exchanges have long had bots that instantly buy or sell on other exchanges and equalize the exchange rate (making money on it) plus I think they can manipulate the price on purpose, as they have very large capitals and it is not a problem for them.
Of a truth crypto exchange do have Bitcoin in a huge volume and as well they have bots trading for them which makes it obvious that they are regularly taking profits on trade from Bitcoin and as they can manipulate the Bitcoin market and price so easily at their Will causing panic.
However, crypto exchanges are amongst the Crypto whales we are hearing and we do not know them and they have been silently controlling the Bitcoin market d price behind and I would not be surprised the recent price drop is no difference
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Is cloud mining still something that can be sold? I thought that it was a long overdue story from which everyone drew the same conclusion - that something like that cannot be profitable for the one who uses it, but only for the one who sells such a service.
I just got an invite and a credit voucher from Bitdeer.
Seems like they have just got a brand new batch of miners lining up for their business, but with the incoming halving and the not so nice energy prices they charge you I don't feel one bit tempted.
I should say new product instead of new features. They have been investing in new ecosystems. They have released the web3 wallet feature in binance. Cloud mining through binance and many more that I don't remember at this moment. One thing I know is that they have a binance lab and they invest in most of the crypto projects as well.
Binance really f** up most of their projects.
The cards are a flop, the payment gateway has no takers, the mining pool has shrunk to 3% form 7% average on year, the cloud mining has no more machines added, almost eveything that doesn't involve prating tokens is really doing bad.
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Bitcoin mining industry is very competitive and Bitcoin Mining companies, farms have to compete with each other to survive and get profit.
I just saw this one (https://twitter.com/Invst_Informant/status/1765167210761249228). It breaks down Bitcoin Mining companies with some metrics includes Bitdeer that is discussed above.
Not all of them have positive net income.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GH8emMQXkAADN6L?format=png&name=large) (https://twitter.com/Invst_Informant/status/1765167210761249228)
Not sure what's going with them internally but some companies have good rises today.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/bitcoin-mining/largest-bitcoin-mining-companies-by-marketcap/
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Binance really f** up most of their projects.
The cards are a flop, the payment gateway has no takers, the mining pool has shrunk to 3% form 7% average on year, the cloud mining has no more machines added, almost eveything that doesn't involve prating tokens is really doing bad.
To be honest, I don't care about them because I never invested a single penny in those things. I never tried their cloud mining thing, and I didn't get their card as well. But I do know that they are investing in new projects. They have a product named Binance Lab, and I don't know what they do with Binance Lab. But I have seen their logo on many new cryptocurrency teams. There is a new project named Districtone, and I have seen Binance lab and Crypto.com also invested in that project. This just an example where they are investing.
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Bitcoin mining industry is very competitive and Bitcoin Mining companies, farms have to compete with each other to survive and get profit.
I just saw this one (https://twitter.com/Invst_Informant/status/1765167210761249228). It breaks down Bitcoin Mining companies with some metrics includes Bitdeer that is discussed above.
I can't believe that one. It means Stronghold would be mining with S17, and with both Hut8 and Bitfams mining with S19 first gen 90th/s and nothing better. No way in hell that is accurate, it means that after the halving they would all go bankrupt unless they have no other expense than electricity at 4cents kwh.
Also what's up with Mara at 24j/Th it would mean they only have newer than S19xp gear, now way that's possible when they had 4 exa of stock s19 last autumn. Next, how the hell does Clean Spark managed to get twice the profit per BCT when they have lower efficiency?
Not even going to mention Bitdeer, that is way off by any scale!
There must be some 2022 data mashed there othewise....
To be honest, I don't care about them because I never invested a single penny in those things.
Me neither but all the recants events have med me teat any of their enterprises outside tokens with a destined to fail attitude.
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Binance really f** up most of their projects.
The cards are a flop, the payment gateway has no takers, the mining pool has shrunk to 3% form 7% average on year, the cloud mining has no more machines added, almost eveything that doesn't involve prating tokens is really doing bad.
To be honest, I don't care about them because I never invested a single penny in those things. I never tried their cloud mining thing, and I didn't get their card as well. But I do know that they are investing in new projects. They have a product named Binance Lab, and I don't know what they do with Binance Lab. But I have seen their logo on many new cryptocurrency teams. There is a new project named Districtone, and I have seen Binance lab and Crypto.com also invested in that project. This just an example where they are investing.
Just like I do, I just buy potential coins and save them for the next few years. I don't care about those mentioned. I buy when prices are still low and will sell during the bullish season. that's all
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I can't believe that one. It means Stronghold would be mining with S17, and with both Hut8 and Bitfams mining with S19 first gen 90th/s and nothing better. No way in hell that is accurate, it means that after the halving they would all go bankrupt unless they have no other expense than electricity at 4cents kwh.
Also what's up with Mara at 24j/Th it would mean they only have newer than S19xp gear, now way that's possible when they had 4 exa of stock s19 last autumn. Next, how the hell does Clean Spark managed to get twice the profit per BCT when they have lower efficiency?
Not even going to mention Bitdeer, that is way off by any scale!
There must be some 2022 data mashed there othewise....
I read that Hut8 are preparing to open more mining farms after the halving and they are preparing money to buy Rigs from bankrupted mining companies (competitors) after the halving.
Hut 8 Commences Construction of New Digital Asset Mining Site in Culberson County, Announces New Treasury Strategy (https://hut8.com/2024/02/27/hut-8-commences-construction-of-new-digital-asset-mining-site-in-culberson-county-announces-new-treasury-strategy/).
They planed to invest about $17M for that mining farm in Cullberson County.
I am not sure about the figures, just shared it, as I am not expert in Bitcoin mining.
You view is interesting and thanks for sharing your opinion on it.
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Just like I do, I just buy potential coins and save them for the next few years. I don't care about those mentioned. I buy when prices are still low and will sell during the bullish season. that's all
It's a simple way to do it, although we should also have to learn the many things that Binance has to offer along with the problems. You are a simple person in investing. just buy and
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Just like I do, I just buy potential coins and save them for the next few years. I don't care about those mentioned. I buy when prices are still low and will sell during the bullish season. that's all
Unfortunately, I do not do the same. I do not invest in every potential project. My 90 portfolio is in Bitcoin, and the remaining 10% is in alts and stablecoins. I only invest a couple of dollars if I can convince myself that the project is good and it's not centralized; then, I may consider buying some tokens. But there are people who always buys coins with FOMO and they like to be up to date with the market and sometimes they get scammed because not all of them are legits. They make profit too. But the number of good projects that do 10x or 20x is too low. I was amazed how ORDI and some other coins climbed that much.
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Just like I do, I just buy potential coins and save them for the next few years. I don't care about those mentioned. I buy when prices are still low and will sell during the bullish season. that's all
Don't just buy coins without doing deeper research. If you buy coins at the current price then there is the potential that you will be trapped at an expensive price. It is better to wait until the price collapses and buy Bitcoin in very large quantities. Believe me, cryptocurrency prices will definitely be like a roller coaster which has up and down movements, if it is currently going up then there will be time for it to go down and you have to get in immediately.
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There may be another reason, which is that someone who buys in large quantities does not want to influence the market, so he buys from OTC, or he wants to influence the price, so he sells on the crypto exchange.
The supply of Bitcoin, especially on a crypto exchange, can be manipulated, but the more the value of Bitcoin increases, the more billions you need to make such a risk.
I don't know, I'm still trying to make sense of the concept of supply crisis when applied to digital assets...
With physical assets - like commodities - the concept of supply crisis makes sense. But with digital assets?
Anyway, someone is calling for an upcoming supply crisis in BTC due to ETF demand
Bitcoin Has 6 Months Until ETF "Liquidity Crisis"
Bitcoin faces a “sell-side liquidity crisis” by September if institutional inflows continue, an industry analyst says.
In a thread on X on March 12 (https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1767441447702413547?s=20), Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, predicted a BTC supply watershed “within six months.”
Ki: Bitcoin bears “can’t win” while ETF flows continue
Bitcoin as an institutional investment allocation is only just getting started, industry participants have said, as United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) gain momentum.
Now holding nearly $30 billion, they have become the most successful ETF launch in history.
Should the trend continue, however, a new phenomenon could arise where there will not be enough BTC available to meet demand (this concept doesn't make any sense to Peter...)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIc2ZjuaAAALJPN?format=jpg&name=large)
(https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bitcoin%20holdings.jpg?itok=OEw9bcvD)
1.4 million BTC to go?
Ki showed an ongoing broad uptrend in BTC held by so-called “accumulation addresses” — wallets with only inbound transactions — with this still needing to double before the “crisis” sets in.
As Cointelegraph reported, accumulation address holdings have recently started cooling off as Bitcoin hits new all-time highs.
(https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/btc%20accumulation.jpg?itok=gS8HWtzr)
zerohedge.com (https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-has-6-months-until-etf-liquidity-crisis)
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Don't just buy coins without doing deeper research. If you buy coins at the current price then there is the potential that you will be trapped at an expensive price. It is better to wait until the price collapses and buy Bitcoin in very large quantities. Believe me, cryptocurrency prices will definitely be like a roller coaster which has up and down movements, if it is currently going up then there will be time for it to go down and you have to get in immediately.
It is too careless if someone buys a coin without a deep research. Even we buy a coin through a deep research, there is still a chance to get a bad coin. It will be worse if we buy with no deep research. I bet we only can get shitcoins.
I think there is no problem to buy coins now. Many coins still don't reach their ATH, they are struggling to keep increasing. Buying now is good as long as we buy the right coins. The top coins will be recommended coins for buying. We don't need too complex research on them.
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Bitcoin doesn't really get supply crisis, it gets higher price. I feel like we are going to be alright and nobody should worry about these things. GO get yourself some bitcoin and yo will be fine, if the price goes up right away, then you make quick buck, if it takes some time and there isn't a crisis, it will still go up but just won't be that quick. Things do end up being something a bit more clear when the time comes, but that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with anything major. Just assume that things will not be easy and we are going to do fine in the end with that logic. Hopefully, it will be pretty quick.
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Unfortunately, I do not do the same. I do not invest in every potential project. My 90 portfolio is in Bitcoin, and the remaining 10% is in alts and stablecoins. I only invest a couple of dollars if I can convince myself that the project is good and it's not centralized; then, I may consider buying some tokens. But there are people who always buys coins with FOMO and they like to be up to date with the market and sometimes they get scammed because not all of them are legits. They make profit too. But the number of good projects that do 10x or 20x is too low. I was amazed how ORDI and some other coins climbed that much.
This method is good because you will make safer and better trading, although there is no guarantee of always making a profit, but at least you have the opportunity to stay safe in cryptocurrency. Maybe you can participate in Airdrop which you can do without using any capital.
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Don't just buy coins without doing deeper research. If you buy coins at the current price then there is the potential that you will be trapped at an expensive price. It is better to wait until the price collapses and buy Bitcoin in very large quantities. Believe me, cryptocurrency prices will definitely be like a roller coaster which has up and down movements, if it is currently going up then there will be time for it to go down and you have to get in immediately.
It is too careless if someone buys a coin without a deep research. Even we buy a coin through a deep research, there is still a chance to get a bad coin. It will be worse if we buy with no deep research. I bet we only can get shitcoins.
I think there is no problem to buy coins now. Many coins still don't reach their ATH, they are struggling to keep increasing. Buying now is good as long as we buy the right coins. The top coins will be recommended coins for buying. We don't need too complex research on them.
Bitcoin does not need to require too deep research, you just buy and then HODL long-term it is enough, we know the potential of bitcoin how now, it is certain that it is ATH and it will peak even more, even I bought bitcoin never looked at the price because I did the DCA method.
Speaking of altcoins, research is needed even about the fundamentals themselves, I am not sure about some altcoins and it is only owned a little compared to bitcoin which is bigger in the portfolio because it is sure that bitcoin every cycle will touch ATH again.
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Bitcoin does not need to require too deep research, you just buy and then HODL long-term it is enough, we know the potential of bitcoin how now, it is certain that it is ATH and it will peak even more, even I bought bitcoin never looked at the price because I did the DCA method.
Speaking of altcoins, research is needed even about the fundamentals themselves, I am not sure about some altcoins and it is only owned a little compared to bitcoin which is bigger in the portfolio because it is sure that bitcoin every cycle will touch ATH again.
Exactly the advantage of bitcoin is like that because of the influence of the supply which is only 21 million bitcoins, so it is very suitable if you store bitcoin for a very long time because the price will definitely increase again when more and more people want to buy bitcoin, but it is also increasingly difficult to get bitcoin, whatever the price. will be bought by the pope.
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Bitcoin doesn't really get supply crisis, it gets higher price. I feel like we are going to be alright and nobody should worry about these things. GO get yourself some bitcoin and yo will be fine, if the price goes up right away, then you make quick buck, if it takes some time and there isn't a crisis, it will still go up but just won't be that quick. Things do end up being something a bit more clear when the time comes, but that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with anything major. Just assume that things will not be easy and we are going to do fine in the end with that logic. Hopefully, it will be pretty quick.
There will be a supply crisis during the bitcoin halving, because miners' rewards will be cut in half. And at that time demand will be high, causing the price of bitcoin to soar. but we will also see some corrections at that time, because whales will manipulate the market all the time until the bull season, when it reaches the top of the ATH.
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forget about the institutions holding, Bitcoin will always circulate and these people can take hold of the decentralized network for any purpose.
I am having a hard time understanding this sentence, but if you meant that institutional investors are going to control the network, then that is not going to happen; BTC is decentralized and there is never going to be a central authority that is in control. Whales and these investors own a lot of BTC, so they can manipulate the price, but they cannot control the network.
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Bitcoin does not need to require too deep research, you just buy and then HODL long-term it is enough, we know the potential of bitcoin how now, it is certain that it is ATH and it will peak even more, even I bought bitcoin never looked at the price because I did the DCA method.
Speaking of altcoins, research is needed even about the fundamentals themselves, I am not sure about some altcoins and it is only owned a little compared to bitcoin which is bigger in the portfolio because it is sure that bitcoin every cycle will touch ATH again.
Exactly the advantage of bitcoin is like that because of the influence of the supply which is only 21 million bitcoins, so it is very suitable if you store bitcoin for a very long time because the price will definitely increase again when more and more people want to buy bitcoin, but it is also increasingly difficult to get bitcoin, whatever the price. will be bought by the pope.
Where I will try to hold on to the BTC I have now and will accumulate the DCA method because it is more effective than having to buy the DIP method, not bad but the convenience of my own way makes it better especially as I don't analyze prices all the time.
People will buy bitcoin at any price because they feel the price will definitely go up again especially with the lowest buying price then it is already a big advantage.
Until whenever the pope will still have a large amount of BTC.
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I am having a hard time understanding this sentence, but if you meant that institutional investors are going to control the network, then that is not going to happen; BTC is decentralized and there is never going to be a central authority that is in control. Whales and these investors own a lot of BTC, so they can manipulate the price, but they cannot control the network.
Exactly, no one can control the Blockchain Network, only the prices on the exchange can be controlled by whales or investors who have a lot of money. In this way, they can move the price of Bitcoin up or down according to an agreement with a group of other rich people.
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I am having a hard time understanding this sentence, but if you meant that institutional investors are going to control the network, then that is not going to happen; BTC is decentralized and there is never going to be a central authority that is in control. Whales and these investors own a lot of BTC, so they can manipulate the price, but they cannot control the network.
Exactly, no one can control the Blockchain Network, only the prices on the exchange can be controlled by whales or investors who have a lot of money. In this way, they can move the price of Bitcoin up or down according to an agreement with a group of other rich people.
I agree with you, market prices can be controlled by whale groups. they will manipulate prices to make a profit. This not only happens in the crypto world but in other trades too, those with large capital can manipulate prices. As small investors we can only go with the flow and read market movements, we take advantage of the moment to make a profit and always monitor the market.
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I agree with you, market prices can be controlled by whale groups. they will manipulate prices to make a profit. This not only happens in the crypto world but in other trades too, those with large capital can manipulate prices. As small investors we can only go with the flow and read market movements, we take advantage of the moment to make a profit and always monitor the market.
Yeah traders who have a lot of capital will find it easy to compete by creating flows created by other whales. Meanwhile, for us as traders who have small capital, it is best to follow the conditions of the exchange and never go against price movements that occur in the market.
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Speaking of supply crisis
Coinbase Bitcoin reserves hit a 9-year low
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJmtuvLWMAAOhye?format=jpg&name=large)
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Speaking of supply crisis
Coinbase Bitcoin reserves hit a 9-year low
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJmtuvLWMAAOhye?format=jpg&name=large)
This should be a very good signal, coinbase is a place that many people use to buy Bitcoin but already has a limited supply. It is possible that Coinbase buys all the Bitcoin on the exchange or perhaps directly to the miners to maintain Bitcoin availability on the Coinbase platform.
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This should be a very good signal, coinbase is a place that many people use to buy Bitcoin but already has a limited supply. It is possible that Coinbase buys all the Bitcoin on the exchange or perhaps directly to the miners to maintain Bitcoin availability on the Coinbase platform.
Here is a noob question
An Exchange shouldn't be just a place where buyers and sellers meet?
Why does an exchange need to be the seller?
Why does it need to guarantee liquidity?
An exchange isn't a market maker.
Availability is always there i.e. there are always sellers, it's just a matter of price.
If there is no BTC availability on the Exchange at a certain price, the price will go up, until availability appears.
?
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Here is a noob question
An Exchange shouldn't be just a place where buyers and sellers meet?
Why does an exchange need to be the seller?
Why does it need to guarantee liquidity?
An exchange isn't a market maker.
Availability is always there i.e. there are always sellers, it's just a matter of price.
If there is no BTC availability on the Exchange at a certain price, the price will go up, until availability appears.
?
When talking about the scarcity of BTC, we are only talking about the availability of highly liquid BTC, which is temporarily considered to be BTC on CEXs and ready to be sold right now. At the same time, we consider the amount of BTC in self-custody accounts that contain expectations of a higher price. All of them create the basis for us to analyze onchain data according to a narrative that seems most reasonable.
We do not know exactly when BTC holders will send all of their BTC to CEXs, it could be in a few minutes, when BTC returns to $70K or in 12 months, when BTC will hit $160K. We can only present a possibility that seems reasonable in order to make judgments and predictions.
Currently, the amount of BTC on CEXs is low, we can temporarily think that only this amount of BTC is ready to be traded and when the buying pressure increases thanks to BTC Spot ETFs or BTC Halving, we will see BTC price increase very quickly and strongly due to the supply crisis.