JPMorgan predicts BTC drop to $42,000 after April halving

[TomPluz]

A new report by JPMorgan warns of a looming price correction for the world’s top cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s price—above $63,000 on Thursday—has reached heights not seen in two years, but the coin’s upcoming halving event could push prices down to $42,000, according to analysts at JPMorgan.

“The Bitcoin production cost has empirically acted as a lower bound for Bitcoin prices,” the analysts wrote in a report released Wednesday, estimating that post-halving production costs could double to about $53,000. This could cause a 20% decline in the Bitcoin network’s hashrate, meaning fewer miners would be competing to produce Bitcoins simultaneously.

“This $42,000 estimate is also the level we envisage Bitcoin prices drifting towards once Bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria subsides after April,” the analysts wrote.

Read more here: https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/02/29/bitcoin-correction-jp-morgan-april-halving/

This is interesting to hear this somewhat "dark" prediction for Bitcoin after the halving, courtesy of an analyst working in JP Morgan. Well, anything can happen with Bitcoin and this prediction can be true or false...as we would see after the halving. Just like many of us here, we are used to predictions for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH and setting a new record on or around $100K into year 2025.

1. Do you think this analysis from JP Morgan is based on historical precedents or just their own biased opinion which mostly will come flat and just be forgotten after?

2. Do you have your own prediction as to the price of Bitcoin after the halving...and would there be a big crash after this quadrennial event?

[Z-tight]

Some of these guys make predictions like they know exactly what is going to happen, but that is not true. I disagree with this prediction. I don't know who this 'analyst' is, but they are talking about a hike in BTC production cost and a decline in the hashrate, if there is a drop in the hashrate, then mining difficulty would be adjusted accordingly, there would also be enough miners in the BTC network, so i don't see how that is going to cause a plunge back to $42k.

I would like to think that even if BTC price is going to take a hit after the halving, i don't think it would fall as much as this, considering now that it is moving towards the all time high when the halving has not even happened.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Some of these guys make predictions like they know exactly what is going to happen, but that is not true.

What they do is apply a predictive model that gives them those results and it is a predictive model that fails, like all predictive models. But in particular what JPMorgan has to say about it doesn't really matter to me because we will never know if the 'predictions' they make are purely objective research on their part or if they obey some interest, and if I have to choose between the two, I'll go for the latter.

[Lucius]

It seems to me that they (JPM) want to create FUD again, because they have done it many times in the past, and not very successfully. Considering what their CEO thinks about Bitcoin, I am surprised that they are not even more pessimistic.

Never say never when it comes to Bitcoin, but I don't see any valid reason why the price of BTC would fall by more than 30% after the halving, especially not because of the miners who will manage as always because in the long term Bitcoin is definitely worth it for them.

[Captain Corporate]

Not entirely sure if that would happen. I can see a drop beforehand, because a lot of people will take profit and there could be a correction, we are quite high right now but I do not see it happening afterwards. What people do not understand is that they think of "oh after halving there won't be anything to wait, so people could sell later on" but the reality is that the real things start afterwards, and that would be the real benefit of it. I personally believe that the best thing to do in this case would be making sure that we are dealing with even more increases afterwards, that's what happens almost every time.

[Z-tight]

Not entirely sure if that would happen. I can see a drop beforehand, because a lot of people will take profit and there could be a correction, we are quite high right now but I do not see it happening afterwards.

I am also not sure it would happen and i feel they are simply making this prediction because they want to, not as a result of any analysis or anything like that. I also agree with you that there could be a correction before the halving, i think even if it happens, it would not be much. However, i don't think there would be a dump after the halving, even if the price does not start pumping immediately, it would not dump.

[bhadz]

1. That's his bias. I won't believe anything he say anymore but if he invests in Bitcoin, that's what he should be vocal about because he doesn't have that much reputation left about these predictions.
2. They say that the dump will come after the halving, possible. But as long as there's the demand and the buyers are too aggressive, we don't know when it shall come but we will have to check and see if it will.

[yhiaali3]

Personally, I do not trust banks or their analysis, especially when it comes to Bitcoin. They hate Bitcoin and want to spread any news that causes panic and distrust of Bitcoin.

In any case, I agree with them on one point that it is certain that Bitcoin will fall again after reaching the new peak, but not at the large rate that they are talking about. It is natural that after every peak there must be a decline, as people will start selling and reap their profits, but no one knows exactly how much Will this fall?

This is the natural Bitcoin cycle and everyone knows it and there is no need to scare people.

[Faisal2202]

1. Do you think this analysis from JP Morgan is based on historical precedents or just their own biased opinion which mostly will come flat and just be forgotten after?

Well, he did not share any graphs or much information but future predictions work like that I think this is a biased opinion but it is hard to judge it would have more easier if I had known that analyst. haha. I think he is saying 70% right and 30% based on opinion. But let's hope what he says doesn't come to reality. As his prediction is based on one factor and that is that fewer miners will be there, what if that does not will happen and the miners' counting remains the same or increases? Well, one thing I did not understand is, how the lesser miners can become a cause of decrement in the BTC price.

As at that time, less BTC will be mined, and it means less BTC in circulation, which means a higher rate of BTC. I am saying wrong?

2. Do you have your own prediction as to the price of Bitcoin after the halving...and would there be a big crash after this quadrennial event?

I think the real bull run starts after having, and we might see $100k target in the upcoming bull run. Besides that, I don't think the downtrend (if comes) after halving would be permanent, as it can be temporary and I don't think we (holders) should care about it.

[electronicash]

i too have the same gut feeling that the price off BTC will fall just a day after halving. just  something unexpected will happen just as what happened to BTC when spot ETF was approved. but i wouldn't really think off diving down to $42k though. maybe 50k-55k this is where my price correction go.

going down to 42k is likely Jaime Dimon fud. if you believe it and you set your buy back at 42k, you might not be able to buy some BTC. Jaime will just be laughing seeing you as an investor diving in a low well.

[hugeblack]

1. Do you think this analysis from JP Morgan is based on historical precedents or just their own biased opinion which mostly will come flat and just be forgotten after?
2. Do you have your own prediction as to the price of Bitcoin after the halving...and would there be a big crash after this quadrennial event?

They explained the reason for this prediction and it makes sense from my point of view as they used the average Bitcoin mining costs as the lowest price for selling Bitcoin.

According to -----> https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost (Warning not accurate data)



The current average is $49,000, which may decrease after halving. Therefore, from a theoretical standpoint, we can say that the price will remain above $49,000 for the period before halving.

This indicator is good for determining the bottom, not the top, so I said it is inaccurate.

[Captain Corporate]

And just like we assumed, it went from 62k to near ATH prices, as of me righting this, its over 67k and there is literally just a tiny amount left until it peaks at ATH as well. I understand why companies like JPMorgan doesn't want bitcoin to do well, and say these things because they want people to fear it and sell it, but nobody cares about them anymore, lol. Thats the most beautiful thing about bitcoin, it made all these old heads irrelevant, we don't care about them, nobody that buys bitcoin listens to them anyway, so when they say something, people who could sell and drop it, do not care about them anyway so it just keeps going strong.