Maybe it is the skeptic in me, but I feel like he won't serve that much. I am not sure about the American law and how quickly he will be set on parole, but legally whatever is the quickest way, he will do that. They will put him in house jail for a while if they have to, parole and just make him wear an ankle watch if they have to, all of that will happen no matter what and he will just find a way to get out. So while I did say 2030 or earlier, my "real" answer is that whatever legal way he could get out the quickest, he will get out that way without a doubt. Some lawyer could enlighten the situation regarding that.