Gold, as a commodity, does have a predisposition to rise in price. But the nuance is that it is the price of the commodity, not the unit of valuation of other commodities.
Although we are now seeing a downward trend, in the 2024 timeframe, a rising price is more likely than a falling price (although no options are impossible).
Rising global tensions are pushing many countries to seek some financial safe haven. And if the attitude to cryptocurrency, at the level of governments, is still specific, everyone remembers gold as the oldest option for "preserving value". Another couple of indicators that can negatively affect the global economy - is the fall in the value of the dollar and the change in the discount rate. We are watching this, but it seems to be assumed that there should be no problems to push gold up even more.
But there is another interesting scenario - stagnation and problems in the Chinese economy, the outflow of Western capital and investors, and the worsening crisis inside the Chinese economy, which is beginning to experience a strong currency famine, may lead to the fact that China will be forced to start selling off its gold savings, because the yuan is not much in demand, and for example, payments to Russia in yuan, China has blocked, fearing further pressure and sanctions from the U.S., on whose money and technology the Chinese economy depends a little more than heavily.
Following China, Russia, whose economy is not yet dead, but is already convulsing, may start a massive sell-off.
At the same time, it should be remembered that these two countries have raised the price of gold since 2022, buying it in anticipation of Western sanctions, after Russia unleashed a terrorist war in Ukraine, and its tacit support from China. And as it turned out, expectations of "stability and independence" of the Russian economy were greatly exaggerated. Russia has lost the European gas market (sales have fallen to the level of the 1970s), and the oil market, although it still works, brings in less than 50% of past revenues. The "military" economy and problems at the front are burning up all revenues and reserves at a breakneck speed. So we have to sell something that is not yet banned or under sanctions. Revenues from oil, gas, uranium, diamonds, armaments, and many other previously major resources for export have been lost. That leaves gold. Therefore, there is a very high probability that gold will be dumped on the world market. How this will happen - directly from Russia or through its proxies and other rogue helpers who still have access to the world gold market - is not clear, but we can expect it with a high probability.