United States was not the first country that its SEC approved bitcoin ETF. Canada and many countries in Europe have approved bitcoin ETF before United States. But people did not know much about it. You can not compare United States traditional market to those like Hong Kong. Nobody will be expecting something like this.

It is worth to know that bitcoin price today is decreasing, but that does not mean all-time-high is not coming. Do not expect bullrun to start immediately after halving.

I believe investors are not comparing capital flows in Hongkong to those in the US, but rather they are placing their hopes on the massive capital flow from mainland China. Hongkong is seen as part of China and has been chosen as a testing ground for open crypto policies before they are rolled out across the mainland. Unfortunately, according to the latest announcement, capital from the mainland cannot access BTC & ETH Spot ETFs in Hongkong. Therefore, the disappointment is quite significant and we cannot see the positive impact from these Spot ETFs.

However, this is not too negative either. We should accept the reality and the positive impacts: the crypto experiment in Hong Kong is going well and we can wait for acceptance from the Chinese government in the future. Everything takes time, even BTC Spot ETFs in the US took 11 years to be approved.

No, it's still too early to pack our bags because we are already in middle of the bull market and it's just the beginning of this bull run. 2024-2025 are going to be very bullish years for crypto currencies, especially for Bitcoin. The market had to have some corrections overtime as without corrections the market won't work.

Bitcoin hasn't yet reached $80k value and it's too early to even think about packing the bags because when the market gets intensity, we can expect Bitcoin crossing $100k value. If we check the history of Bitcoin then we can understand that it's too early to expect the peak price of Bitcoin at current times because history shows us that Bitcoin reaches its best values in October to December of previous bull runs.

Now keeping that in our mind, we can expect Bitcoin to do something similar in this bull run as well. This bull run is going to be much more intense than the previous bull runs because in this bull run huge investment companies have launched their ETFs and they will do their best to make Bitcoin reach the top values.

Yeah, I also believe that the crypto market is overheating and that there needs to be a strong and long enough correction to re-accumulate before entering the main bullrun. I consider the BTC's journey from $16K to $73K to be just a recovery phase, not growth. If the market ends the bullrun right now, it will not be able to continue to attract investor attention and the crypto market will be destroyed or go into a prolonged downturn.

The community often has extreme emotions: excessive greed in Q1 after BTC Spot ETFs and excessive fear when BTC has been sideways for the past few weeks. Skepticism is running rampant in the market but it only comes to inexperienced investors. Experienced investors will understand that a correction is necessary at this time, and the rational action would have to be to buy instead of sell.

I still maintain my expectation that BTC will reach $150K-170K in 2025. In the worst case, that could come in Q4 2024 and we will see this cycle end a bit earlier than previous cycles.

Dù có ticker nào đã được chuẩn bị thì đó vẫn là sự chuẩn bị, em nghĩ chúng ta phải chờ sự chấp thuận chính thức từ SEC vào tháng tới trước khi có thể thở phào nhẹ nhõm với sản phẩm ETFs này. Hiện tại giá ETH vẫn chưa có bứt phá quan trọng nào, nhà đầu tư vẫn theo dõi và khá thận trọng. Nếu trong vài ngày tới những quỹ khác cũng công bố ticker của họ cho ETH ETFs thì chúng ta có thêm sự tin tưởng, bởi có thể họ đã biết điều gì đó trước chúng ta nên mới chuẩn bị kỹ lưỡng và sớm đến như vậy.

Mình cũng chỉ tin vào thông báo chính thức của SEC vào tháng tới, hiện tại mọi thứ vẫn chỉ dừng lại ở tin đồn. Chỉ có thông tin rõ rằng là SEC đã theo đuổi việc điều tra ETH theo hướng tiêu cực trong thời gian qua nhằm chứng minh ETH là chứng khoán để từ chối những đề xuất cho ETH Spot ETFs. Mọi chuyện với ETH Spot ETFs sẽ không được suôn sẻ trong chu trình này, nếu nó bị trì hoãn đến chu trình sau thì mình cũng sẽ không quá ngạc nhiên. SEC dám từ chối sản phẩm này thì chúng ta sẽ có thêm drama kiện tụng giữa những công ty lớn nhất thị trường và SEC về bản chất của ETH. Cuối cùng thì vụ kiện này cũng khó mà tránh được, thị trường cần có một kết quả chính thức để làm căn cứ cho những bước phát triển trong tương lai.

Mặc dù có mức định giá thị trường chung vượt quá 1 tỷ USD, Forbes liệt kê các token này bao gồm các tên như XRP, ADA, BCH, LTC, ICP, ETC, XLM, STX, KAS, THETA, FTM, XMR, AR, ALGO, FLOW, EGLD, BSV, MINA, XTZ và EOS, chúng được cho là cung cấp rất ít ứng dụng chức năng khác ngoài việc đầu cơ.

Hơi bất ngờ khi Cardano, Algorand, Mina và Fantom nằm trong nhóm này vì chúng đã có nhiều sự phát triển mạnh mẽ trong chu trình trước, có được nhiều người dùng và tiếp tục tồn tại qua mùa đông crypto 2022-2023. Stacks cũng đã trỗi dậy khi là Layer-2 trên Bitcoin thành công và nổi tiếng nhất về hệ sinh thái, thật khó tin khi xem nó là zombie chain. Có lẽ lý do chủ yếu đến từ sự tăng giá quá lớn của những token này, nghĩa là chúng đang bị định giá cao hơn so với hoạt động thực tế.

Tuy nhiên, điều này là bình thường vì giá token thường được định giá bởi kỳ vọng của nhà đầu tư vào tiềm năng của chúng trong tương lai, cụ thể là trong bullrun này. Nhà đầu tư sẵn sàng mua và giữ dù hệ sinh thái của chúng chưa thực sự sôi động, nhà đầu tư chỉ muốn có được lợi nhuận từ sự tăng giá của chúng mà thôi. Đây là một phần của thị trường crypto: vẫn thiên hướng về tài chính thay vì công nghệ.

Elon Musk might be the CEO of the Telsa company but he doesn't get to say in all final decisions. If he include Doge coin as utility payment for Tesla companies, it will take Doge coin to atleast $3 to coin but then it's going to invite a lot of eye from the government and also from agencies like Security exchange commission and also if anything later happen to Doge coin price, they will hold him responsible for involvement in price manipulation.

The potential for adoption by Tesla, SpaceX, and X-payment is one of the major drivers keeping DOGE in the spotlight and attracting investor interest in this market. While Elon Musk remains a vocal supporter of DOGE, I fear that we may not see widespread adoption of DOGE within these companies anytime soon, for various reasons, including legal ones.

Even if not adopted by X-payment in the future, the memecoin trend is here to stay, and DOGE will continue to be the largest and most prominent memecoin in the crypto market. DOGE will not be forgotten, and I still believe that DOGE will continue to make new ATHs in this bullrun and make the memecoin trend even stronger at the peak of the crypto market.

I think they're scared and they came up with this decision based on the government's continuous clampdown on various privacy enhancing tools. Based on the fact that it has been in operation for about 6 years and has offered it services to both US and non US citizens, is Wasabi really safe from the US government after this announcement? Can the government still go after it?

We will have to wait for new announcements regarding the US government's allegations against Phoenix and Wasabi Wallets. To be honest,  I am just a regular user, I am not a lawyer and do not fully understand the regulations and potential charges involved in these wallet apps. I am not in the US but I will also avoid using these wallet apps, the market has many other options that are more convenient, secure and legal than them.

I am really looking forward to more information about the allegations and the lawsuit, I do not care about the fate of Wasabi, I care about the court's views on all crypto wallet apps in the crypto market. Clear regulations can become a basis for crypto wallet apps to comply with and operate more effectively in the future, promoting the development of the entire crypto market.

History repeats itself till it does so no more!

Bitcoin has broken all patterns to date and it will continue to do so, people clung to things live never going below the previous ATH, like no double  ATH during a cycle, no bull run before the halving, one has to understand that we had just three cycles, it's such a low pool of data that you can't draw patterns out of it!

Plus, there is the change in the economic environment, the ban in China, and the approval of Bitcoin ETF, how were those present in previous cycles, and furthermore, if there had been no halving, would that have meant no bull run? Of course not! Past experience means nothing, if suddenly the US would ban crypto due you think patterns will matter anymore? If China would say Bitoin is legal tomorrow won't we have a bull run prior to the expected date again? 
But most important of all, if everyone thinks that it will take 4 months for the bull run won't everyone just buy now and dump then, artificially creating and ending the bull run just because they think it should happen when it's all a matter of their own actions?

Current technical cycle-based analysts are quite confused because BTC has created a new history for itself: a new low below the previous cycle's peak, a new ATH before halving. Based on history and the belief that BTC price will repeat history, we have no basis for continuing to predict BTC price movements in this bullrun. The only thing I can think of is cyclicity: BTC has peaked in 2013 - 2017 - 2021, so I also expect the peak of this cycle to come in 2025.

Looking back in the past, facing BTC price volatility or rather the volatility of their account balances, investors are always confused because there are too many choices and we can always buy and sell easily 24/7. At the 2020-halving, we also had a new history when BTc price dropped sharply just before the halving, or many traders also doubted the ability of BTC price to continue to create new peaks as in the past. The boredom of cyclicity & the strangeness of new history, both make it difficult for investors to make decisions.

I think we don't need to focus on speculating future, we should continue to hold faith in the bullrun, while not forgetting to prepare for actions when the market has unusual fluctuations. I will still wait for BTC price to reach $150K-170K in 2025

Honestly speaking, I did some research on old coins, and I discovered that most of the old coins started when the intensity of the hype that they did before and the others that became their ATH was too much when they started to enter the crypto space, then when there was a massive drop in price and they were no longer able to reach or surpass their previous ATHs.

Although others continued to raise their tokens as time went by, others remained stagnant because they didn't do any innovation with their tokens, unlike ETH, which, even though it took a long time, the innovation was continuous.

Yeah, many old coins from bullrun 2017 emerged during the ICO wave and were able to easily raise hundreds of millions of $ and set truly impressive ATHs: NEO, EOS, TRX, BCH... However, the value they brought to users in terms of both utility and growth potential was negligible during bullrun 2021. The same could happen in this bullrun for old coins from the bullrun 2021: SOL, NEAR, FTM, UNI... They have huge communities, but whales typically want to choose new tokens to make it easier to accumulate tokens, manipulate prices, and generate as much profit as possible. Only a few old coins that are truly attractive in terms of community, cash flow, and new narrative continue to be chosen for pumping and stand out in this harsh crypto market.

I believe that when selecting tokens for their portfolios, investors should focus more on the profitability and growth potential of the ecosystem than on the age of the project and its token.