Predict BTC price at Halving

[Stompix]

The bad news I heard is US government moving their BTC and I don't know if they are planning to dump these coins on the exchanges. We may see a sell pressure if they decide to sell the BTC they have.

Yeah, recently the US government moved about $1B worth of BTC, but I think this selling force is not enough to negatively affect the growth trend of BTC.

Guys, there is no danger of those coins hitting the exchanges soon!
Those coins are from the Bitfinex hack and the DoJ will not release them nor will they auction it until Bitfinex settles the claims with their clients, after the hack the victims agreed to a  plan taking 30% losses and getting paid in tokens,  they want now their coins back, and no federal agency will return a seized good or commodity or anything else when there is not  clear owner of the funds and no lawsuit regarding it.

So those coins will be stuck there for years to come much as MtGox!

As for miners, I think everyone is tryin hard to find explanations no matter what!
Miners were supposed in January to sell their coins to get gear, now they are selling to take profits, next month I'll be hearing they are selling to pay bills or buy back shares, in reality nobody knows, and I'm pretty sure when the big guys we'll have to produce their Q1 statement we're going to see there was no major out of the usual activity anywhere!

[I-Bit]

It's true that the price of Bitcoin has finally reached a new ATH of $70k, but don't you think there's anything strange when you see the new ATH price after a long wait of around 4 years only at $70k? I see the price of Bitcoin every 4 - 5 years making a new ATH with a high distance that is quite far away, so it seems impossible if the price of Bitcoin just stops at $70k.

What is strange with the new ATH? Sure, it won't stop at $70k. It is just the beginning of the high pump of Bitcoin price. People predicted the price of Bitcoin will be above $100k. And I believe with the prediction because it is not so far from the current price. But I don't want to believe the prediction of people that Bitcoin will be above $150k. I think it is too high target for Bitcoin to be achieved for now.

[philipma1957]

the poll could use new choices.

 I picked over 60k
But I think over 80k is a better guess.

[armanda90]

It's true that the price of Bitcoin has finally reached a new ATH of $70k, but don't you think there's anything strange when you see the new ATH price after a long wait of around 4 years only at $70k? I see the price of Bitcoin every 4 - 5 years making a new ATH with a high distance that is quite far away, so it seems impossible if the price of Bitcoin just stops at $70k.

What is strange with the new ATH? Sure, it won't stop at $70k. It is just the beginning of the high pump of Bitcoin price. People predicted the price of Bitcoin will be above $100k. And I believe with the prediction because it is not so far from the current price. But I don't want to believe the prediction of people that Bitcoin will be above $150k. I think it is too high target for Bitcoin to be achieved for now.

I am not really expected with Bitcoin new ATH after halving above $100k to $150k, its too much expensive and bitcoin need to pump more than 100% more regarding the current bitcoin price. I think around $80k to $85k its most realistic target with bitcoin price and keep believing after halving can't guarantee easily for bitcoin pump.
Always get moment with correction and bitcoin need slow time get recovery and several months later after halving seems not always in the bull run moment keep anticipation with bearish moment if you hold cryptocurrency assets.

[Learn Bitcoin]

Guys, there is no danger of those coins hitting the exchanges soon!
Those coins are from the Bitfinex hack and the DoJ will not release them nor will they auction it until Bitfinex settles the claims with their clients, after the hack the victims agreed to a  plan taking 30% losses and getting paid in tokens,  they want now their coins back, and no federal agency will return a seized good or commodity or anything else when there is not  clear owner of the funds and no lawsuit regarding it.

So those coins will be stuck there for years to come much as MtGox!

Unfortunately, I didn't know these facts. Thanks for the information brother. I was thinking why they didn't that BTC yet if they can sell it. It was about a week ago when I heard about it that the government moved $1B worth of BTC somewhere. I didn't even know if they moved it to an exchange or not. Actually, that's how FUD spreads. But, I am glad that it didn't affect the market.

As for miners, I guess they always sell some of their holdings to pay bills and buy new gear for their mining farm. But when it's a bull run, they try to cash some profits because they always do not mine in profit.

[MrSpasybo]

Guys, there is no danger of those coins hitting the exchanges soon!
Those coins are from the Bitfinex hack and the DoJ will not release them nor will they auction it until Bitfinex settles the claims with their clients, after the hack the victims agreed to a  plan taking 30% losses and getting paid in tokens,  they want now their coins back, and no federal agency will return a seized good or commodity or anything else when there is not  clear owner of the funds and no lawsuit regarding it.

So those coins will be stuck there for years to come much as MtGox!

As for miners, I think everyone is tryin hard to find explanations no matter what!
Miners were supposed in January to sell their coins to get gear, now they are selling to take profits, next month I'll be hearing they are selling to pay bills or buy back shares, in reality nobody knows, and I'm pretty sure when the big guys we'll have to produce their Q1 statement we're going to see there was no major out of the usual activity anywhere!

Thank you for the information, I'm just not sure what the US government really wants to do with this BTC. They made no specific announcements and allowed the community to continue to be skeptical and make predictions. Anyway, when BTC has reached $72K, I don't think any action by the US government can seriously hurt the market on the road to the bullrun.

the poll could use new choices.

 I picked over 60k
But I think over 80k is a better guess.

I've added options so we can vote and discuss. You can also update your vot. BTC always knows how to surprise us and force us to change all our investment plans!

[Gladitorcomeback]

As for miners, I think everyone is tryin hard to find explanations no matter what!
Miners were supposed in January to sell their coins to get gear, now they are selling to take profits, next month I'll be hearing they are selling to pay bills or buy back shares, in reality nobody knows, and I'm pretty sure when the big guys we'll have to produce their Q1 statement we're going to see there was no major out of the usual activity anywhere!

Miners selling their coins is never a usual activity in my opinion, don't they sell the coins usually that they get as a mining reward from the blockchain to sustain their mining activities? They might hold a portion of it for times such as now where they can take profit for personal gains and not for the business they are involved in and that is completely normal as everyone does that.

So there shouldn't be FUD or anything about any of these issues. The authorities won't sell any coins or assets that they have held because of a case or a lawsuit and even if they have funds seized and have the right to sell them, they don't just dump them all but they would sell them in portions and they specify the times of the sales and sell them accordingly regardless of the unit price at that time.

[MrSpasybo]

Miners selling their coins is never a usual activity in my opinion, don't they sell the coins usually that they get as a mining reward from the blockchain to sustain their mining activities? They might hold a portion of it for times such as now where they can take profit for personal gains and not for the business they are involved in and that is completely normal as everyone does that.

In my opinion, miners selling BTC is normal: they are companies and their product is BTC. They need to sell BTC to have income to pay operating costs: rent, money to buy energy, money to hire workers, money to repair and upgrade machines. Sometimes they also sell the BTC in reserve so they can scale.

Before the Halving, when faced with a halving of revenue from block rewards, many miners need to sell their BTC reserves to have enough money to operate during the period from the Halving until the price of BTC doubled. Some mining companies also need money to buy out smaller miners. Companies with large financial potential will try to hold more BTC because they believe in the growth potential of BTC in the new cycle.

I believe that the sale of BTC by miners is part of the crypto market, we can refer to this information to make appropriate investment decisions.

[debra]

the poll could use new choices.
I picked over 60k
But I think over 80k is a better guess.

Yes. The Price of Bitcoin is above $70k now. When it is at halving, I'm sure it will be above $75k. Not sure if it will be above $80k.
The pool seems updated already, we can choose over $100k. Actually, I want to vote above $100k but it seems very unlikely. I think the price will cross $100k when it was already few months after halving.

[Jamal Aezaz]

Yes. The Price of Bitcoin is above $70k now. When it is at halving, I'm sure it will be above $75k. Not sure if it will be above $80k.
The pool seems updated already, we can choose over $100k. Actually, I want to vote above $100k but it seems very unlikely. I think the price will cross $100k when it was already few months after halving.

The price of Bitcoin is currently 72k# so very soon it will touch 75k$ so I think that during halving it will attain 80k$ if worth and is not so difficult at the time of halving. 100k$ will only be possible if Bull season remains at the same stage after halving.

If more people sell their bitcoin during halving then I don't think that 100k# achievement will be an easy thing so future price depends on the demands for bitcoin so if more people are waiting and don't sell their bitcoin then hopefully we will see 100k$.

[benalexis12]

I will simple linear regression method with data of BTC Close price in the month of Halving in 2012, 2016 and 2020.
BTC Close price is predicted in May 2024 to be $77.5K, which means that BTC will create a new peak immediately after the BTC Spot ETF is approved, which is really bullish.

This 77500$ looks like it will happen sooner; I think it might be the month of March until it finally happens. Because we can't say that other investors will suddenly sell a percentage of their holdings and then pay back again as if nothing happened, you know what that means.

Although right now, if I look at the market's ranking, I have noticed for a few days that just a few days from now, Bitcoin will start to rise in the market, as well as the top cryptos, for sure, so I'm still a bit cautious and careful about what we will do as holders.

[Power420]

It is never possible to predict the price of Bitcoin because the price of Bitcoin is always up and down. The more investors invest in Bitcoin, the higher the price of Bitcoin will rise. As it is nearing the halving, Bitcoin price is up to 73.3K at the moment. Bitcoin price has reached 73.3K which is the highest price ever, never before has the price of Bitcoin increased so much.Which is why the price of Bitcoin has increased so much due to Bitcoin ETF Approve at present.

[EthereumDev_]

It is never possible to predict the price of Bitcoin because the price of Bitcoin is always up and down. The more investors invest in Bitcoin, the higher the price of Bitcoin will rise. As it is nearing the halving, Bitcoin price is up to 73.3K at the moment. Bitcoin price has reached 73.3K which is the highest price ever, never before has the price of Bitcoin increased so much.Which is why the price of Bitcoin has increased so much due to Bitcoin ETF Approve at present.

Bitcoin price movements are never predicted precisely, but it can be predicted how the next price movement will rise or fall because the price movement depends on several data events that have been agreed upon from year to year, such as during this halving, the price will definitely be high because miners will find it difficult to get Bitcoin, but after the halving occurs the price will collapse again as has usually happened in the history of Bitcoin exchanges.

[elbans89]

It is never possible to predict the price of Bitcoin because the price of Bitcoin is always up and down. The more investors invest in Bitcoin, the higher the price of Bitcoin will rise. As it is nearing the halving, Bitcoin price is up to 73.3K at the moment. Bitcoin price has reached 73.3K which is the highest price ever, never before has the price of Bitcoin increased so much.Which is why the price of Bitcoin has increased so much due to Bitcoin ETF Approve at present.

Bitcoin price movements are never predicted precisely, but it can be predicted how the next price movement will rise or fall because the price movement depends on several data events that have been agreed upon from year to year, such as during this halving, the price will definitely be high because miners will find it difficult to get Bitcoin, but after the halving occurs the price will collapse again as has usually happened in the history of Bitcoin exchanges.

Is it halving now, friends? because as far as I know the halving will occur in April next month. Actually, currently it is the influence of the bitcoin ETF that is making the price of bitcoin quite high. And when bitcoin touched $73 K, this had never happened before, because this happened before the bitcoin halving.

[MrSpasybo]

Is it halving now, friends? because as far as I know the halving will occur in April next month. Actually, currently it is the influence of the bitcoin ETF that is making the price of bitcoin quite high. And when bitcoin touched $73 K, this had never happened before, because this happened before the bitcoin halving.

Yeah, you're right, BTC has never created a new ATH before halving, but we have it in this cycle, maybe due to the positive impact of the BTC Spot ETF being approved in January. This forces us to update our own understanding and predictions. I didn't believe in the $77.5K prediction before, but now I will support it and wait for the market's answer 

Bitcoin price movements are never predicted precisely, but it can be predicted how the next price movement will rise or fall because the price movement depends on several data events that have been agreed upon from year to year, such as during this halving, the price will definitely be high because miners will find it difficult to get Bitcoin, but after the halving occurs the price will collapse again as has usually happened in the history of Bitcoin exchanges.

All technical analysis predictions are based on history, with the assumption that history will repeat itself. But sometimes we will have new history, a new normal, and we have no choice but to accept it and add it to our predictive model. The market has no obligation to listen to us, we just have to follow it ^^