Coinbase: Macro Factors to Influence Crypto Markets After Halving

[TomPluz]

Coinbase Global Inc., one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges, is anticipating that with the Bitcoin halving completed, macroeconomic factors will be pivotal in dictating the price trajectory of digital asset markets.

This is a clear contradiction from previous post-halving events where a bullish run is certainly guaranteed due to industry-based push factors.

According to a research report, analyst David Han emphasized the significance of external factors in influencing crypto markets, even as crypto fundamentals remain robust. Some of the external drivers ticked by Hans include heightened geopolitical tensions, prolonged periods of elevated interest rates, reflationary policies, and escalating national debts.

Analysts anticipate that given these prevailing macroeconomic conditions including geopolitical tensions and monetary policy decisions, the cryptocurrency market is likely to chart a different path post-halving.

More details on this here.

With both ETF approval and halving done and their influence already maximized in the price movement of Bitcoin, I am sure that the market will be focusing on other factors including those that got nothing directly to do with it.

1. Do you believe that Bitcoin will really be influenced by external factors like, for example, the geopolitical tension happening right now in the Middle East and the ongoing weakness of the global economy?

2. Do you think that despite these factors, Bitcoin will eventually reach $100K within this year and be at $150 in 2025...or you think that these are just speculations hard to be a reality?

3. Do you have your own projections on where Bitcoin will be a month, a quarter from now and what can be the basis of your own projections?

[Lucius]

With both ETF approval and halving done and their influence already maximized in the price movement of Bitcoin, I am sure that the market will be focusing on other factors including those that got nothing directly to do with it.

Halving effects never manifested immediately after halving, but it took months, and I believe it will be the same this time. As for spot ETFs, it is true that in the US they have already contributed to the growth of the BTC price, but I do not think that this is the end, because even though the inflows into the funds are currently stagnant, it is only a matter of time before the trend will reverse - and besides it remains to be seen what the reaction will be to the approved spot ETFs (BTC&ETH) in Hong Kong.

1. Do you believe that Bitcoin will really be influenced by external factors like, for example, the geopolitical tension happening right now in the Middle East and the ongoing weakness of the global economy?

If Bitcoin (mostly) remained immune to the war in Ukraine, I don't think it should be expected that the conflict (not war) between Israel and Iran could affect what will happen to Bitcoin. It should be taken into account that these two countries are almost 1000 km away from each other, so war in the true sense of the word is not technically possible.

2. Do you think that despite these factors, Bitcoin will eventually reach $100K within this year and be at $150 in 2025...or you think that these are just speculations hard to be a reality?

The chances for $100k are definitely high, and it seems to me that BTC could reach that price by the end of this year (70% probability), and if not, we will still have to wait for next year. Everything above that price is difficult to predict, because it is a very important psychological limit that will mean the exit point for many - if not everything they have, then at least part of the coins.

3. Do you have your own projections on where Bitcoin will be a month, a quarter from now and what can be the basis of your own projections?

Summers in the northern hemisphere were not very fruitful for the price of BTC, because that is the time when people go on annual vacations, which usually means traveling to other countries - which again means that they do not invest then, but mostly spend the fruits of their labor. I personally expect that we will see real action only in the fall, although that does not mean that nothing will happen in the next 5-6 months.

The fact that the price has been stable above $60k for a long time tells me personally that we are creating a very good base for some new achievements.

[hugeblack]

If a correction does not occur during the next three months, the current cycle may be different from previous cycles, but in any case, what is required of Bitcoin is to double from the levels of $60,000 - $70,000 to the levels of $130,000 to $150,000, which is something possible even if it does not rise. The price is very high, so in any case, levels of at least $100,000 seem logical for this year.