URGENT: Expecting high volatility in #Bitcoin and #Crypto today due to the #FOMC Meeting

CryptoNews of the Week


– Investors may not see a rise in the price of the main cryptocurrency to new historical highs in the coming months. Optimism about the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs in Hong Kong quickly dwindled, and bitcoin began to search for its bottom again. Liquidations of long positions reached $230 million per day, according to CoinGlass monitoring. It seems that bearish sentiments arose because the trading volumes of new ETFs in Hong Kong were significantly lower than expected, which led to a capital outflow from BTC-ETFs on US exchanges.
According to Glassnode analysts, bullish sentiments persist as the market prefers the "buy on the dip" approach. However, they acknowledge that losing support at around $60,000 could lead to a crash in the BTC price to $52,000. Another expert, Alan Santana, believes bitcoin could fall even lower, possibly to $30,000.

– Legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, has allowed for a 25% probability that bitcoin has already formed another peak (ATH) in the current cycle on March 14 at a high of $73,745. The expert referred to the concept of "exponential decay," which describes a process of decreasing growth by a constant percentage over a specific period. "Historically, bitcoin has traded within approximately four-year cycles often associated with halvings. After the initial bull rally, there were three more, each 80% less powerful than the previous in terms of price growth," the specialist explained. "In my analysis, I estimated the probability [of such a scenario] at 25%. However, I trust the report I published in February more. [...] The 'pre/post-halving' cycle construction suggests that the current bullish trend will reach its peak in the range of $140,000–160,000 somewhere in late summer/early autumn 2025," clarified Peter Brandt.
Giovanni Santostasi, CEO of Quantonomy, questioned the appropriateness of applying the theory of exponential decay in this particular case. "We have three data points if we exclude the period before the [first] halving, and effectively only two when looking at the ratios. This is insufficient for conducting any significant statistical analysis," Santostasi commented on Brandt's assumption. According to his own power-law model, the peak of the fourth cycle is expected around December 2025, at approximately $210,000. It is worth noting that not only Giovanni Santostasi but also many other participants in the crypto market are counting on the continuation of the bull rally and achieving a new ATH. For example, Glassnode analyst James Check hopes that the BTC rate at this stage will reach $250,000. Even Peter Brandt himself mentioned $200,000 as a potential target in the February report he cited.

– The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has examined the first cryptocurrency and its impact on global markets in a new report. The organisation recognises the asset's ability to positively influence the economy. According to the IMF, digital gold is "the key to autonomy" for many countries in difficult financial situations. The report highlights the growing popularity of bitcoin and its acceptance in various jurisdictions, while the tense geopolitical situation has made assets like bitcoin and gold "more relevant."

– According to analysts from Spot On Chain, their forecasting model, developed using an extensive dataset, takes into account halvings, interest rate cycles, ETF factors, venture investor activity, and bitcoin sales by miners. Using the artificial intelligence platform Vertex AI from Google Cloud, Spot On Chain obtained price forecasts for bitcoin for the years 2024-2025. According to calculations, the price of the first cryptocurrency will be in the range of $56,000-70,000 from May to July, characterised by increased volatility. In the second half of 2024, there is a 63% probability that BTC will rise to $100,000. "This forecast signals prevailing bullish sentiments in the market, which will be facilitated by the expected reduction in interest rates [by the US Federal Reserve]. This could increase the demand for risk assets such as stocks and bitcoin," representatives of Spot On Chain explained. According to their data, there is a "convincing probability" – 42% – that in the first half of 2025, digital gold will surpass the $150,000 mark, as the first cryptocurrency typically updates its historical maximum 6-12 months after each halving. If we consider the entire year of 2025, the chances of growth to $150,000 increase to 70%.

– Cathy Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, confirmed her long-term forecast for Ethereum. In her opinion, the main altcoin is capable of catching up with bitcoin. She believes that by 2032, its market capitalization will reach an impressive $20 trillion. Based on current values, the main altcoin should consistently trade above $160,000 by that time. Highlighting her views, Cathy Wood emphasized that technologically, Ethereum is more advanced compared to the flagship cryptocurrency. Moreover, at the moment, it remains the most in-demand platform for deploying smart contracts and decentralized applications of any complexity.
In March, the price of ETH exceeded $4,000, but this was followed by a deep correction coinciding with geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, leading investors to flee from high-risk assets. Instead, they focused on diversification and began investing capital in traditional financial instruments. In light of these events, the key beneficiaries were the dollar and US Treasury bonds, as well as precious metals.

– Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, expects a massive inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market as wealth estimated at $30 trillion from baby boomers seeks to enter digital assets. According to the businessman, capital flows will most likely come from them – those born between 1946 and 1964 – through pension accounts managed by advisors. (According to the Investment Advisor Association, in 2022, US financial advisors managed assets worth more than $114 trillion). Yusko mentioned that the introduction of BTC-ETFs has significantly changed demand. However, the full effect of this is yet to be felt. "I believe that within 12 months, $300 billion will enter this area – this is 1% of the $30 trillion. In fact, this is more money than has ever been converted into bitcoin in 15 years. We've only been working with ETFs for about three months, and we've received about 10% of what I think comes into this area from registered investment advisors who control all the boomers' money," stated Yusko, adding that the inflow could potentially increase the crypto market's capitalization to $6 trillion.

– American regulators, according to the administrator of Bitcoin.org known as Cobra, are preparing to impose a complete ban on self-custody of cryptocurrency. This means that US citizens will have to involve intermediaries who will store digital assets. "If you think the government won't come for your bitcoins, you simply haven't paid attention to this," Cobra scares readers on the X social network page.
Cobra recently assured subscribers that a split might occur within the Bitcoin community. There are those who want the network to remain unchanged and those who would like to add more features to Bitcoin, expanding the network's capabilities. Cobra is confident that these disagreements could negatively affect the ecosystem of the first cryptocurrency.

– American entrepreneur and investor Chris Dixon criticised the tightening measures taken by regulators regarding cryptocurrencies. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is increasingly suing crypto companies, claiming they are trading unregistered securities. This has caused Dixon great concern. "The US has an absurd cryptocurrency regulation regime. [...] Major industry companies developing blockchain-based solutions face constant pressure. Existing rules encourage platforms to host only memecoins, which can be freely traded on markets without any restrictions, rather than other more useful crypto assets," stated Dixon.
Further in his forecasts, the administrator of Bitcoin.org under the nickname Cobra believes that the US authorities are preparing to introduce a complete ban on self-custody of cryptocurrency. This means that citizens of the country will have to involve intermediaries who will store their digital assets. "If you think the government won't come for your bitcoins, you just haven't paid attention to this," Cobra scares readers on the pages of social network X.

– The Federal Court of Seattle (USA) has delivered a verdict in the case of the co-founder and former CEO of the largest crypto exchange, Binance, Changpeng Zhao. It is noted that the businessman was accused of crimes related to money transfers without a license. While the prosecution had requested three years of imprisonment, the defense suggested settling for five months of probation. Representatives of the Justice Department insisted that probation for CZ was inappropriate as "such a decision could encourage others to break the law on the largest possible scale." The defence argued the absence of evidence that the defendant was informed of the illegal activities on the exchange. As a result, one of the wealthiest people in the crypto industry got away with four months of imprisonment.
Addressing his final words, Changpeng Zhao acknowledged that he had failed to properly establish a suitable client verification system at Binance and to counteract money laundering during his tenure.
Recall that in November 2023, Zhao reached a settlement with the US government to end a years-long investigation against Binance. As part of the agreement, he stepped down as CEO and agreed to pay a fine of $50 million. However, as we see, the US authorities found this insufficient, and now, in addition to dismissal and a fine, a prison term has been added.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

The rise won't take effect immediately although i was still shocked to see bitcoin dropped below $60k this is to say that we might see more dip, for over few weeks now bitcoin has been within the range of $73k to $60k but was surprised to see that it was down $57k this morning. This show more dip are to come before we could fully enjoy the bull run this season, which would falls between ending of this year to next year 2025,

The bull run is still here but currently market conditions are not well as we have seen the price to go down below the value of 60k$ but current worth is 60k$ which means that slight pump takes place again and we are not in completely bear phase.

One should not be worried about the market dump because after every dump we see a stronger pump and as usual we will again enter into the elevated phase where we will see prices more than 73k$ but for it we have to reduce fear.

Although current situations are not good and it has made everyone worried about their investment but according to predictions bull season will remain until 2025 so try to hold more.

Quote from: Aanuoluwatofunmi on February 14, 2024, 04:13:57 PM

I see defining bitcoin as a common and ordinary thing anyone can do when they make the action to go online and google it, there could be various interpretation on what bitcoin is, but the best way is to begin by knowing what a cryptocurrency is first, that will serve as an intro to understanding better what Bitcoin is for a lay man, if you want a digital currency and are tired of being under the control of the central authorities, then maybe bitcoin is the best for you.

People focus on the definition of Bitcoin. And indeed it needs to be understood because it is basic. Oh yes, apart from these definitions, there are things that are actually basic about Bitcoin, namely related to the risks that exist in Bitcoin. Because, Bitcoin is an asset that still has risks that must be taken by its holders. And the risk that this means exists and is inherent to Bitcoin and depends on how someone experiences and controls it.

I strongly agree with you, it's not just enough to consider just the definition of Bitcoin, while it's important to know the definition of bitcoin, it's also very important to also acknowledge the potential risks involved in it. Bitcoin may have very high potential for profitability and so are the risks very high too and it'll be suicidal for one to dive into Bitcoin investment without first acknowledging the possible risks involved.

Bitcoin is very volatile and its price can fluctuate unpredictably, and just like every other digital assets, it's vulnerable and the possibilities of hack and other security threats are all in thr picture.
So one should be aware of the threats and risks associated before diving in, and not just the potential for profits and gains.

Quote from: MrSpasybo on April 23, 2024, 11:58:41 PM

According to your logic: in bullrun, BTC and ALTS will increase in price and generate more profits than the APR of stablecoin staking. However, not all tokens will increase in price and be more profitable than holding stablecoins. We hear that 90-95% of investors lose money, only 5-10% make a profit in the crypto market, so just holding stablecoins and staking is an easy way for investors to make a profit. In addition, in bullrun, the APR for stablecoins staking is also quite high, it can be up to over 10% and is really attractive. Ultimately, every choice depends on the investor's risk appetite.

That's why I asked for 10% guaranteed, but its risks are high, such as freezing your CEX account in exchange for more than 10%. By buying Bitcoin at the beginning of 2024 and selling it in mid-2025, the risks are lower, you can withdraw to your wallet and achieve a good return.

Everyone has their own strategy to make profits, 10% looks nothing at all from the crypto returns standards and that's too but someone who switched to cryptos from traditional investment like stocks and real estate the 10% is quite decent but the term guaranteed gives them a feel of assurance.

In reality we are risking 100% to get lesser than 10% meanwhile chances of hack, exit scam and any other unexpected event can cost our capital.