What has been the bitcoin price performance since the halving?

[NikeFit_7777]

CoinGecko analysts analyzed each of the cycles, determining the average growth after the event - 3230%.

This figure was largely influenced by the first halving, when the exchange rate increased by 8858% - from 12$ to 1075$ over the next 12 months. The inflation of the first cryptocurrency dropped from 25.75% to 12%.

After the second halving, the exchange rate went from 650$ to 2560$ (294%) during the same period. Inflation: 8.7% → 4.1%.

The third halving resulted in a 540% increase in the quote from 8727$ to 55,847$. Inflation: 3.7% → 1.8%.

CoinGecko noted that although bitcoin is "better positioned than ever" thanks to ETFs, the halving is only a baseline.

Even projected inflation, which could make demand even higher after the fourth event, does not guarantee immunity from a number of factors: selling pressure, perception, global market liquidity, regulation, macroeconomic trends and market events.

[bounceback]

After halving, bitcoin performance not promising yet keep going down every time and currently keep stable around $61k, its not significant increasing actually one month before halving moment after bitcoin success break out to the higher price and reach new ATH. I think the moment for bitcoin up and make another ATH seems bit difficult and need longer time take break for raising up to $73k or raise new ATH price.
Keep be patience for short term trading how market current condition and need to find potential altcoin faster movement because bitcoin seems stable and difficult increasing drastically.

[Zed0X]

I think the pump from the first halving should be treated as an outlier when talking about average increase. We'll have a more realistic expectation if that's remove from the computation.

In any case, the percentage increase in this 2024 halving could be the same as the third or a bit higher. BTC at six digits by late 2024 or early 2025 is still not out of the picture.

[MrSpasybo]

I think the pump from the first halving should be treated as an outlier when talking about average increase. We'll have a more realistic expectation if that's remove from the computation.

In any case, the percentage increase in this 2024 halving could be the same as the third or a bit higher. BTC at six digits by late 2024 or early 2025 is still not out of the picture.

I think everything is normal and reasonable, including the entire BTC price fluctuation in each cycle. BTC's price performance is hindered by price, marketcap, and ALTS participation. This means that the increase of BTC price will slow down over time, until there is a major change in the price regime: from convergence to stability to a larger bubble.

I am very optimistic about the impact of BTC Spot ETF but I do not think it can change the current regime of BTC: meaning that the price performance of BTC in this cycle will be smaller than in the previous cycle, meaning that using the connecting line of the 2 peaks of the 2 previous cycles cannot help suggest the peak of the next cycle.