Impact of Genesis selling $1.3B worth of BTC

[MrSpasybo]

BTC price is recovering very well and has retested $52K this week. BTC Spot ETF is considered the main driving force for this strong price increase of BTC, when selling pressure from GrayScale decreased to below $100M per day while buying force from the remaining ETFs providers continued to be maintained^[1]. However, we just received news that may not be good for BTC's price increase:

A court ruling has allowed Genesis to liquidate $1.3 billion worth of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares. The court decision is part of an effort to reimburse investors after Genesis filed for bankruptcy. The company held roughly $1.3 billion worth of shares in GBTC before the filing. Grayscale objected to the sale of the assets, but the judge ruled in favor of Genesis.

"A bankruptcy judge will allow Genesis Global Holdco to liquidate roughly $1.3 billion worth of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares as part of efforts to reimburse investors^[2]."

If Genesis decides to quickly liquidate all $1.3B worth of BTC, I think BTC's price momentum will be negatively affected, even though Genesis may only sell BTC via the OTC market.

1 month ago, after the BTC Spot ETF was approved on January 11, 2024, FTX liquidated about $1B worth of GBTC (it can be considered that FTX converted GBTC for BTC and then sold BTC on OTC), and we have seen BTC price drop 20% from $49K to $39K^[3]. Fortunately, at that time, the excitement of traditional investors helped the remaining ETFs providers absorb all the BTC sold by FTX.

I expect that ETFs providers will continue to have large and continuously increasing net inflows like the past 4 days, averaging $450M per day^[4]. This will be a necessary condition for all of Genesis's BTC to be absorbed and not have a negative impact on BTC price.

Personally, I'm worried that this selling pressure from Genesis could push BTC into the 0.6178 ~ $39K Fibo zone again before BTC recovers and breaks through $69K.

Are you bothered by the fact that Genesis will sell $1.3B worth of BTC? Do you think this event will have a negative impact on BTC's price increase? Have you updated your BTC investment strategy because of this event?
[1] Grayscale GBTC Outflow Slows as Premium Enters Positive Range
[2] Court clears Genesis to liquidate $1.3B worth of Grayscale GBTC shares
[3] FTX Sold About $1B of Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF, Explaining Much of Outflow: Sources
[4] Bitcoin ETFs inflows snowball: Last 4 days bigger than first 4 weeks

[Tribalchief]

Are you bothered by the fact that Genesis will sell $1.3B worth of BTC?

I'm not sure if it's necessary to be bothered because there is nothing we can do about it. It's evident that liquidating their BTC is the last option to clean up their mess.

Do you think this event will have a negative impact on BTC's price increase?

I believe there could be a slight impact on the price of BTC, considering the significant influence of information on BTC prices. But things might go the other way round.

Have you updated your BTC investment strategy because of this event?

I can't just jump into making moves, I really need to make proper observations and planning so as not to sh*ot myself in the foot.

[TomPluz]

I expect that ETFs providers will continue to have large and continuously increasing net inflows like the past 4 days, averaging $450M per day. This will be a necessary condition for all of Genesis's BTC to be absorbed and not have a negative impact on BTC price. Personally, I'm worried that this selling pressure from Genesis could push BTC into the 0.6178 ~ $39K Fibo zone again before BTC recovers and breaks through $69K.

We are hoping that the excitement and growing ETF interest can bode well for the price of Bitcoin so any shock that can possibly happen due to the liquidation by Genesis will not be great affecting the market. And since this will be OTC transaction, I am seeing the possibility for some ETFs to be negotiating as buyers so they can enjoy some discount in the process. Anyway, we are just speculating here and it would be excited to see what will really happen in the next few days and weeks, leading to the halving in April 2024. These days, we are mostly talking on institutional side and less of the retail investor side...am thinking that this can be the sign of times that Bitcoin is now a full-pledged investment asset and there is no turning back the tide.

[yhiaali3]

It is certain that this sale will have a negative impact on the market. These are large quantities that, if pumped at once, will cause a significant decline in the price. Therefore, it is logical for the sale to be in batches and for ETF companies to absorb these quantities because the price decline is not in their interest.

As for speculators, they should be very careful in the coming days and change their strategy before they get big losses, although I hope they do not because if they decide to sell before the expected decline, this will cause a more sharp decline due to selling pressure.

As for the long-term investor, I do not expect that there will be any problem because these waves will be absorbed and overcome in the long term and Bitcoin will continue its way to the top.

[SamReomo]

Yes, if that happens then surely Bitcoin's price will be affected for a few weeks but in the end it will recover from it. I'm also thinking that Bitcoin's value will continue dropping from time to time in coming weeks because in sometime US will also find a way to sell out seized Bitcoin.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust sure is one of the largest holders of Bitcoin and liquidating such shares could have a very significant impact on the price of Bitcoin because it's gonna cause a panic sell off which will result to driving down the price even lower. Trust me, this is really going to shake the price of Bitcoin because it'll instill panic in a lot of investors and possibly make them question their confidence in Bitcoin.

But on second thought, this one slice of the pizza, and we can't really tell what level of impact this might cause to the price of Bitcoin so let's just watch.

[Carbitcoin]

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust sure is one of the largest holders of Bitcoin and liquidating such shares could have a very significant impact on the price of Bitcoin because it's gonna cause a panic sell off which will result to driving down the price even lower. Trust me, this is really going to shake the price of Bitcoin because it'll instill panic in a lot of investors and possibly make them question their confidence in Bitcoin.

But on second thought, this one slice of the pizza, and we can't really tell what level of impact this might cause to the price of Bitcoin so let's just watch.

Genesis' approval to sell its shares in Grayscale's various trusts represents a significant step in its efforts to pay creditors and navigate bankruptcy proceedings.  This is just a problem of one computer, even if it has a huge influence on the Bitcoin market.  But this is not a Bitcoin problem.  We constantly see the ups and downs of large companies and monitor market fluctuations because of this, but as always, such situations are temporary and do not pose a threat on a global scale.

[Trongduy]

It is certain that this sale will have a negative impact on the market. These are large quantities that, if pumped at once, will cause a significant decline in the price. Therefore, it is logical for the sale to be in batches and for ETF companies to absorb these quantities because the price decline is not in their interest.

As for speculators, they should be very careful in the coming days and change their strategy before they get big losses, although I hope they do not because if they decide to sell before the expected decline, this will cause a more sharp decline due to selling pressure.

As for the long-term investor, I do not expect that there will be any problem because these waves will be absorbed and overcome in the long term and Bitcoin will continue its way to the top.

We probably don't need to worry about this anymore as BTC price has reached 60K USD, the uptrend has begun and just over 1B USD from Genesis is not a problem with extremely high liquidity in the BTC Spot market ETF. New investors have come to buy Spot ETF and BTC on the Spot market. I even believe that Genesis is temporarily holding GBTC to wait for the opportunity to sell at a higher price in the future. We should focus on new ATH, not the correction for BTC price!

[legend45]

We probably don't need to worry about this anymore as BTC price has reached 60K USD, the uptrend has begun and just over 1B USD from Genesis is not a problem with extremely high liquidity in the BTC Spot market ETF. New investors have come to buy Spot ETF and BTC on the Spot market. I even believe that Genesis is temporarily holding GBTC to wait for the opportunity to sell at a higher price in the future. We should focus on new ATH, not the correction for BTC price!

Agree with you, keep calm and hold bitcoin tea.  We focus on new ATH.  Because bitcoin is getting stronger nowadays.  Current bitcoin price is $61K and has touched $63K almost close to $64K.  It looks like the previous ATH will be achieved this week.  No need to think about correction, because I'm sure bitcoin will strengthen again. I think about Genesis is not big problem.

[Faisal2202]

Are you bothered by the fact that Genesis will sell $1.3B worth of BTC? Do you think this event will have a negative impact on BTC's price increase? Have you updated your BTC investment strategy because of this event?

I was not aware of this news till now, thanks for it and for the details also, as I did hear about FTX selling and you did a great thing by comparing this selling with that one. It gives a clear idea about the market. Genesis mentions somewhere when they are going to sell these $1.3 billion worth of BTC or they already did that. Considering the date of the post and the date of my reply I can say they might have started to sell them.

And they must be making more profit on that $1.3B as the price has increased from that point. I might change my strategy but as a holder, this doesn't affect me much so I think I am good to go, although after seeing the market going up and down, sometimes I think I should have booked some profit and then take reentry again but lazy enough to not do that and when the time passes I regret (hehe).

[Stompix]

Personally, I'm worried that this selling pressure from Genesis could push BTC into the 0.6178 ~ $39K Fibo zone again before BTC recovers and breaks through $69K.

You probably know that fibo doesn't work with events that come out of the blue and have not been replicated in the past, you can't project swings happening because of simple market conditions to events as mass liquidations or major adoptions fomo induced demand.
One major announcement from a fund playing with trillions and all TA can be thrown in the trash, I've always said that it's funny how no TA was capable of showing a model with the price of oil going negative, but ...there you had it, still happened!

Now back to the main event turned out to be a nothing burger to date and it seems they will not only prologue the liquidation plans but they might reach agreements on paying in Bitcoins some of the creditors, so that would mean no selling pressure if those don't liquidate themselves, and despite the reject amendment from DCG seems like there will be even brokerage involved which might even result in just shares switching owners.

Have you updated your BTC investment strategy because of this event?

I doubt you will find one guy doing so on this entire forum! One!!!

[MrSpasybo]

~
And they must be making more profit on that $1.3B as the price has increased from that point. I might change my strategy but as a holder, this doesn't affect me much so I think I am good to go, although after seeing the market going up and down, sometimes I think I should have booked some profit and then take reentry again but lazy enough to not do that and when the time passes I regret (hehe).

A few days ago, Genesis may have postponed selling GBTC to wait for a better price range. Today GBTC selling increased again, I guess this is the return of Genesis and they can earn more than $1.3B. If they have such a good selling plan to sell at the best price range, I believe that BTC price will not fall too deeply. Instead, BTC price may just move sideways and re-accumulate for a stronger growth post-halving.

[JoyMarsha]

I don't know whether is it because of the news of bitcoin ETF and the price increase made me not know of Genesis selling their $1.3b worth of bitcoin. Nevertheless, if the sell should happen, it will shake the price of bitcoin since the bitcoin market moves by its demands and supply.

According to what I read online about Genesis selling their $1.3b asset of bitcoin, they will possibly pump the funds back into crypto, which will not have much effect on the crypto market. However, I am less worried about the whole issue since Genesis will flow back the funds into the crypto ecosystem.

Link to the information: https://cointelegraph.com/news/genesis-bankruptcy-gbtc-outflows-bitcoin-coinbase-crypto-exchange

[Faisal2202]

A few days ago, Genesis may have postponed selling GBTC to wait for a better price range. Today GBTC selling increased again, I guess this is the return of Genesis and they can earn more than $1.3B. If they have such a good selling plan to sell at the best price range, I believe that BTC price will not fall too deeply. Instead, BTC price may just move sideways and re-accumulate for a stronger growth post-halving.

From where did you get information about this information about postponement? As I am still quite late to reply to this reply of yours also. But I would say they should not be selling their funds now, but it is what it is, what they can do if they are bankrupted. But JoyMarsha says otherwise. He/she said, they will invest the money back into crypto.

Then what's the purpose of it selling in the first place? I mean if they are selling now, and buying again, then what's the catch here. Well, in either case, I don't think market is going to be disturbed that much, and as we know there are other selling are also going to take place in this year.

[Stompix]

From where did you get information about this information about postponement?

It's market data as you can watch the outflows from GBTC and corelate them with the other two major ones IBIT and FTBC.
If there are large movements in just one for example GBTC going down a lot but the others not compensating there is selling pressure outside conversions, if suddenly the exodus from GBTC raises by 200 but so does the inflow in others then there is movement between!
Of course it's speculation since nobody would be allowed to actually release customers data to make sure what we see it what we think bu tyou can draw a pretty close to reality pictures based on that.

That being said, on March 3rd we had a net outflow for the first time, with outflows from GBTC being double the inflows of the others , so that might have been a day of pulling out, but still it's one day later than MrSpasybo's post!