I don't think we should look at it this way. We do not calculate stocks like this, neither gold, nothing gets calculated this way. We are dealing with something that is making us money and nothing more is needed to be perfectly clear. I understand the logic, yes 77k would have the same purchasing power as what we could have bought with 69k back then, but that is not the point. Numbers here do not mean just the money, think of it like a game, this is the points we collect, we look at the leaderboard, so when we get over 69k, we consider that as a win and breaking the highest price ever. Thats what we look at usually.This is just a suggestion from James Van Straten and I find it quite interesting, different from the Price Action we usually know. This proposal suggests a price range that holders can accept to leave the market, and it can create a fluctuation in the price line. I love his prediction and am impressed with his analysis.
I don't think we should look at it this way. We do not calculate stocks like this, neither gold, nothing gets calculated this way. We are dealing with something that is making us money and nothing more is needed to be perfectly clear. I understand the logic, yes 77k would have the same purchasing power as what we could have bought with 69k back then, but that is not the point. Numbers here do not mean just the money, think of it like a game, this is the points we collect, we look at the leaderboard, so when we get over 69k, we consider that as a win and breaking the highest price ever. Thats what we look at usually.
Today we have seen an extremely strong price increase in BTC: BTC has touched $64K which is the highest price since November 15, 2021. To me, this is a signal that BTC has exited the recover phase and enter the growth phase.(https://www.tradingview.com/x/xHKXpBof/)
The concern of many investors right now is: to what price range can BTC price rise before a significant correction occurs? Typically, the Price Action method suggests that the old ATH ~$64K is a key price zone, which is where those who bought in 2021 can sell to recoup their capital.
However, this is usually only reasonable in the context of a negligible inflation rate, meaning that an investor who put in $100K in 2021 will accept $100K back in 2024. In reality, because of inflation and rising interest rates, that investor will only be satisfied to get back $110K > $100k in 2024. James Van Straten has a specific analysis of this possibility for BTC's ATH in 2021.
To understand the true impact of inflation on Bitcoin, we can adjust its November 2021 all-time high of $69.42K for CPI inflation. Using US Bureau of Labour Statistics data, this reveals a staggering reality: to truly regain its peak, Bitcoin would need to reach nearly $77K[1].
I am not surprised with this calculation. I even believe that BTC's ATH in 2021 was set at $65K in April instead of $69K in November. The $69K peak could just be a consequence of inflation, meaning $69K in November could real value was below $65K in April. If this calculation is correct, we could see a reversal in BTC as it approaches $77k. If this happened in April, it would coincidentally coincide with my prediction of $77.5K BTC price at the upcoming Halving, although I did not have high expectation for this scenario[2].(https://www.tradingview.com/x/tb0QuGBn/)
Do you use the Price Action method? What do you think about calculating the important price zone that BTC is about to face using inflation data? Will you act when BTC hits $69K or $77K?
[1] The Bitcoin all-time high in an inflation-adjusted world is $77,000 (https://cryptoslate.com/insights/the-true-peak-of-bitcoin-in-an-inflation-adjusted-world-is-77000/)
[2] Predict BTC price at Halving (https://www.altcoinstalks.com/index.php?topic=315075.0)
As far as I know the 2021 ATH is $69K because I saw it on CMC, because when the ATH was 2021 I set a target at $60K I didn't have time to see the highest price because my bitcoin had already been sold. I just checked back on CMC, touched what the highest number there was it said $69.KFinancial markets that have existed for hundreds of years, such as S&P or DJ, do not use inflation data to customize support and resistance price zones like this, not necessarily because of data limitations, but I think of it as a prophecy coming true: once the old high price is broken, investors' psychology will become more positive and optimistic, leading to buying behavior and continuing to push the asset price up. Inflation plays an important role in commodity buying and selling psychology, but may not really impact investment psychology in financial markets that are traded with extremely good liquidity such as stocks or crypto.
If you want to use inflation which countries rate of inflation?A good idea, it is difficult for us to apply the inflation standard of a certain country to evaluate the true peak of BTC.
How do you base your number's
I am USA based I would argue that USA has suffered 25% inflation from November 2021 to today
So we would need 1.25 x 69k = 86.25k to beat nov 2021's number.
also add in that a ½ ing is coming and that 86k = 43k for a miner
SO miners are on the hook bigly .
And norms may not be on the hook at all.
Why is that lets say a normie buy the dip and Hodl guy grabbed a coin in nov 2022 at 16k
he has gone from 16k to 62k in under 2 years. and that guy laughs at the inflation issue.
but if you grabbed 1 coin at 50k in dec 2021 and now are at 62k yeah inflation affects that person.
This is why we leave out inflation when talking ATH
I also don't really understand the anomaly in the 2021 season: the BTC graph has 2 peaks, but according to onchain, the distribution has taken place since April, meaning the real peak in whale behavior is the lower peak. The November peak may have been a false breakout and not a result of inflation.The story of BTC has too many variables: inflation, economic crisis, cyclicality..., and they create many exceptions to previous cycles, making prediction more difficult.
well does it matter a lot, on a particular platform or in a specific market Bitcoin even hits $100k, will it be called the all time high because it's highly possible due to some technical error or order book glitch, so on the soft node which makes sense as well, the All time high for Bitcoin will be determined based on collective market data on that timeline.What I'm talking about is inflation and interest rates in the US economy, and BTC's ATH was recorded at $69K in November 2021. It doesn't really matter anyway if your expectations are much greater than $69k and $77K: $200K. If you are not too concerned about price fluctuations in the journey from $60K to $200K, you don't need to pay attention to $77K, all you need is to wait for 1BTC = $200K and take profit from your BTC ;D
I've seen many such events where the price was dumped and shot up for a couple of seconds, some were the technical faults and some were the fat finger events. I think in the coming timeline still we are gonna experience such events on the same node. TBH I don't care if was it 77k or 69k haha because I was not there at that time to sell, so now for any future such opportunity, I'll must grab it haha. BTW great efforts.
I'm gonna prepare a limit order for 200k or a million for this cycle if any of such even happens haha I'll be there to book profit who knows haha.
What I'm talking about is inflation and interest rates in the US economy, and BTC's ATH was recorded at $69K in November 2021. It doesn't really matter anyway if your expectations are much greater than $69k and $77K: $200K. If you are not too concerned about price fluctuations in the journey from $60K to $200K, you don't need to pay attention to $77K, all you need is to wait for 1BTC = $200K and take profit from your BTC ;D
This is actually an interesting suggestion on how to compute the real ATH taking into consideration the big inflation rate that many countries including the USA got into for the past months. In other words, the normally accepted ATH figure should be adjusted according to inflation. Now, if I am a BTC holder, this is a good idea to pursue as I am waiting for Bitcoin to maybe reach the $100K zone which by then I would have been on a good profit level. Although, of course, not all may consider this idea, in their decision-making as to when to let go of their Bitcoin. As for me, it is $100K that can trigger a pensive mood on my part whether to leave or continue to stay for more.We just had BTCUSD's new ATH, an event that changed the history we have become accustomed to with BTC over the past decade. All predictions only stop at rough hints, those who believe will continue to stay, those who doubt will leave. Whether $69K or $77K, I believe BTC will soon break them all easily thanks to the momentum from BTC Spot ETF and Halving.
In fact, I liked the method of calculating the real ATH, taking into account the high inflation rate that many countries suffer from. Here in my country, for example, I calculated the ATH compared to the inflation that occurred here and found that this corresponds to about $100,000 or more.This is just an estimate, its purpose is probably to indicate a key price zone at $77K where BTC could exhibit extreme price behavior such as a bullish to bearish reversal. This approach is quite new and untested but I think it's quite interesting. It is similar to when we refer to the BTC price against other fiat like JPY or EUR to see that BTC had a new ATH a few days ago.
This is true because the inflation that occurred will make the real value of Bitcoin low if I sell at 69K$, which is the previous peak price, so in order for me to get a real profit, I must sell above 100K, and I expect that Bitcoin will achieve it given its current performance.
Or do we blow through it and get to 95k then tease 100k for a few months.This is also a possibility, but I have no way to predict this price zone yet. All I can think of are the Fibo levels 1.382 ~ $115K and 1.618 ~ $160K.
This would mean almost all miners are solid. And of course all traders are up.
Holders won't Crack at the 95k number
Or do we blow through it and get to 95k then tease 100k for a few months.This is also a possibility, but I have no way to predict this price zone yet. All I can think of are the Fibo levels 1.382 ~ $115K and 1.618 ~ $160K.
This would mean almost all miners are solid. And of course all traders are up.
Holders won't Crack at the 95k number
$100K could be an important price zone for investor sentiment, as we have been expecting BTC to reach this key price level since bullrun 2021.
Hah? I am quite surprised by this data and this proposal. Because so far we have only looked at data from CMC or CoinGecko to measure prices. Hmm, maybe because these two are the most frequently used platforms. However, this ectic is related to the ATH of Bitcoin in the last bullish era in 2021, I personally am still more inclined to the ATH which is around the $69k level. Yes, like most people of course. However, this new insight could be a new insight for me personally.Viewing charts on Coinmarketcap and Coingecko is limited, so if you want to be more extensive you can use Tradingview and there you can use many features to read the patterns you need.
Thanks for this sharing.
Or do we blow through it and get to 95k then tease 100k for a few months.When Bitcoin price crosses $70k, it is getting confident to see $90k above.
This would mean almost all miners are solid. And of course all traders are up.
Holders won't Crack at the 95k number
Or do we blow through it and get to 95k then tease 100k for a few months.When Bitcoin price crosses $70k, it is getting confident to see $90k above.
This would mean almost all miners are solid. And of course all traders are up.
Holders won't Crack at the 95k number
I'm not sure how long to see the price of Bitcoin around $95k, but I think it should be after the halving. May be it can be in Q3-Q4 of this year. Yes, I agree that most investors won't sell their Bitcoin at $95k, they must keep holding and try to reach the target about $100k.
We are dealing with something that is making us money and nothing more is needed to be perfectly clear.
What do you think about calculating the important price zone that BTC is about to face using inflation data?
I was surprised to see that there is speculation that Bitcoin's all-time high exceeds $77k. And I appreciate you creating this topic about it. I only believe what the chart shows, and I didn't see the price reach $77k on the other charts. However, there are charts with varying ATHs for Bitcoin, like as Bitstamp, which is $68997. It's not even close to $77,000. The majority of platforms that follow the price movement of Bitcoin have ATHs close around $69k, which is reasonable.Well, there seems to be a misunderstanding here. We have not seen BTC reach $77K in the past.
What I'm talking about is inflation and interest rates in the US economy, and BTC's ATH was recorded at $69K in November 2021. It doesn't really matter anyway if your expectations are much greater than $69k and $77K: $200K. If you are not too concerned about price fluctuations in the journey from $60K to $200K, you don't need to pay attention to $77K, all you need is to wait for 1BTC = $200K and take profit from your BTC ;DHAHA, I was kidding, I am not going to wait for BTC to touch $200k. As I know it doesn't have that much potential at the time being, but in the future maybe, Maybe in the next cycle BTC make that target achievable. But all that depends on the ATH of this cycle. Who knows how much close this cycle's ATH will be to the $200k target. Finger are crossed here, because after seeing the movement of BTC from past week, I can say the result we were waiting from ETFs is coming now. haha.
And I am still unable to understand in what context you are trying to relate your topic with US inflation and interest rate, I am sorry if I asked a dumb question, its just I am unable to understand so I thought I should ask. If you don't mind ;DI'm not trying to link BTC's ATH to inflation in the US, I'm just presenting James Van Straten's new perspective on the matter. James Van Straten estimated and came up with a figure of $77K. I think this approach is quite interesting and we can refer and wait for the price behavior of BTC at the $77K area. If this happens, I may update my understanding of technical analysis and add US inflation to my prediction models.
I'm not trying to link BTC's ATH to inflation in the US, I'm just presenting James Van Straten's new perspective on the matter. James Van Straten estimated and came up with a figure of $77K. I think this approach is quite interesting and we can refer and wait for the price behavior of BTC at the $77K area. If this happens, I may update my understanding of technical analysis and add US inflation to my prediction models.I also learned Price action: there are no regulations or suggestions related to inflation, whether analyzing on large or small time frames. Therefore, this calculation method is not really recommended or applied for market analysis. Price charts only include time and asset prices, do not include inflation rates or central bank interest rates, traders only need to identify important price zones where strong price behavior can occur, to proactively establish reasonable transactions.
I don't think we should look at it this way. We do not calculate stocks like this, neither gold, nothing gets calculated this way. We are dealing with something that is making us money and nothing more is needed to be perfectly clear. I understand the logic, yes 77k would have the same purchasing power as what we could have bought with 69k back then, but that is not the point. Numbers here do not mean just the money, think of it like a game, this is the points we collect, we look at the leaderboard, so when we get over 69k, we consider that as a win and breaking the highest price ever. Thats what we look at usually.
As far as I know the 2021 ATH is $69K because I saw it on CMC, because when the ATH was 2021 I set a target at $60K I didn't have time to see the highest price because my bitcoin had already been sold. I just checked back on CMC, touched what the highest number there was it said $69.K
I'm not trying to link BTC's ATH to inflation in the US, I'm just presenting James Van Straten's new perspective on the matter. James Van Straten estimated and came up with a figure of $77K. I think this approach is quite interesting and we can refer and wait for the price behavior of BTC at the $77K area. If this happens, I may update my understanding of technical analysis and add US inflation to my prediction models.Now I got the main point here, sorry for such a dumb question it was my fault I did not get it first. Well, if that's the case then it would be wrong to say that BTC has set a new ATH even if numbers are telling something else. Well, if that's the case then adding CPI data into your chart would give you a better idea of how much potential BTC has.
- That's what I know, but anyway, I think it doesn't matter; maybe that's my thing. It's just that the important thing now is that the ATH that we know was in the CMC before has been broken, similar to what you mentioned.When I see the price of Bitcoin which has penetrated the new ATH it is very exciting, but after the Bitcoin price movement collapses as is happening now I am very sad. At least there is still next month when the halving occurs. I really hope the price will rise again and penetrate the new ATH to $100k.
But anyway, the 77k will still happen in the future; no one knows the exact date; it could be tomorrow, next week, or next month; it depends on what happens.
Now I got the main point here, sorry for such a dumb question it was my fault I did not get it first. Well, if that's the case then it would be wrong to say that BTC has set a new ATH even if numbers are telling something else. Well, if that's the case then adding CPI data into your chart would give you a better idea of how much potential BTC has.This is also just a new perspective. Normally, the impact of inflation is not factored into price charts because it depends on each country. Even if we take into account inflation in the US, the parameter is only representative, and we cannot get the exact value. I don't really believe in this approach, it's just quite interesting and we can wait to see what happens at $77K in the future.
It might look funny but I got the main point of the whole post now, and it is really new to me, I do have the idea that inflation eats away the value of every asset, but never imagined the real number would be. CPI data is going to be useful for all of us. But IMO, the price of BTC is influenced by demand and supply, and if people have no idea about CPI data then BTC might take a little longer to reach $77k.