Predict BTC price at Halving

[MrSpasybo]

BTC Spot ETF is the focus of crypto community attention, especially its impact on BTC and Altcoins price. I think whether it is pumb or dump, the impact is only in the short term, in the long term Bitcoin Spot ETF will be a big driving force for growth of the entire crypto market in next 2024 cycle.

Therefore, let's try to predict BTC price at halving, which is expected to take place in May 2024^[1].

I will simple linear regression method with data of BTC Close price in the month of Halving in 2012, 2016 and 2020.
BTC Close price is predicted in May 2024 to be $77.5K, which means that BTC will create a new peak immediately after the BTC Spot ETF is approved, which is really bullish.

If use some suggestions from analyzing the entire BTC price history, results seem more realistic: Min = $28K, Medium = $40K, Max = $57.5K. $40K is located at Fibo 0.618, quite similar to BTC Close price at previous Halvings. I think this prediction is more reasonable and reliable, although it is not too Bullish.

I look forward to receiving your comments on the two cases I have in mind, and also want to know your own views and opinions on BTC price at upcoming Halving.

[1] Nicehash: Bitcoin halving countdown

[Geey]

Now many countries allow crypto digital currencies to be used as payments or transactions and also many companies are joining or using blockchain technology, this will make the value of crypto increasingly rise in the future... I think the price of BTC will exceed the price in 2019 , because of the large number of interests and transactions in today's market.

[zulfi125]

While predictions vary, your analysis suggests a BTC price range at the 2024 Halving from $28K to $57.5K, favoring a more realistic $40K based on historical patterns and Fibonacci levels. BTC Spot ETF approval could indeed trigger bullish momentum, emphasizing the importance of monitoring regulatory developments for accurate forecasts.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

If am to choose between where we are a d what the possible future is likely to be after halving, bitcoin price will go as far as more than $120,000, why am saying this is because if we go through the memory Lane we will discover about the previous performances, how the market price have moved from one stage to another, the all time low, all time high and their time intervals, we can relate the previous all time highs and see the way the market has performed, this will also help us to achieve something we can work on for this year halving.

[gunhell16]

This is your assessment and assumption, dude, and I respect what you said. It may or may not come true, depending on what happens. Because in an opportunity like this, if we base and look at each analysis of the traders, it is quite difficult to determine which price value will actually happen.

Because we know that there is no accuracy in prediction, and we also know that no one has predicted an exact event in the prediction made by a predictor in this field of crypto space, is there? isn't there yet? That's why we are the only ones who can believe in the prediction we will make in Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency.

[MrSpasybo]

This is your assessment and assumption, dude, and I respect what you said. It may or may not come true, depending on what happens. Because in an opportunity like this, if we base and look at each analysis of the traders, it is quite difficult to determine which price value will actually happen.

Because we know that there is no accuracy in prediction, and we also know that no one has predicted an exact event in the prediction made by a predictor in this field of crypto space, is there? isn't there yet? That's why we are the only ones who can believe in the prediction we will make in Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency.

Everything stops at a prediction, meaning it's based on a number of assumptions:

• Market psychology has a rule: period is 4 years, usually peaking 18 months after Halving.
• Respect the continuous upward price trend: each peak is higher than the previous peak.
• BTC price is determined by market psychology, so it may imply some (albeit loose) rule.
• We can try to find out the fluctuation rules of BTC price.
• The data has sufficiently converged to a predictable zone.

I only use simple tools such as: historical closing prices + linear regression + comparison with past behavior to make this prediction. I also know that the crypto market is a lot more interesting, so we will watch it together. At least, this prediction is also a milestone for us to compare in the future ^^

[Faisal2202]

You have shown some good facts and figures, and they look promising, at the time of writing this post, ETF has been approved and to be honest, I am not seeing any up trend at the rate I was expecting maybe it is just too early to see the results as you aforementioned, the real benefit of ETF approval is in the long run. Well, IMHO, the price of BTC can go around $55k because the other two options of $40k and $28k seem to be impossible because now ETF has been approved.

Although there was some drama but this is good news for all of us and we should know the importance of it.

[sampoerna]

Of course we are very enthusiastic when we talk about the price of Bitcoin which is likely to rise quite drastically after the Bitcoin halving occurs. not just Alvin, but also what will happen to Bitcoin after the Bitcoin ETF is approved or not. Surely this will have quite a big impact on all of us.

 I personally will set several Bitcoin price targets. but my initial position may be worth believing if Bitcoin will surpass last season's ATH. and it can definitely continue to climb even higher up to more than $100k. Hopefully this will actually happen and maybe it can exceed that price. But at least the price is still in for those of us who have plans to hold for a long period of time.

[Cryptomultiplier]

The price of Bitcoin nonetheless would have much pact on a HoDLer who may only find it difficult to squeeze out the few Satoshis to HoDL for a duration.
Besides this, the price would soar higher than last year ending at almost $45k because as we await the ETF approval which may or may not happen instantly, we also await the pre program of halving to be effected, thus leading to a much anticipated bull market and new ATH.

[Baofeng]

It's been reported that the 1st Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-etf-hopefuls-still-expect-sec-approval-despite-social-media-hack-2024-01-10/

The U.S. securities regulator on Wednesday approved the first U.S.-listed exchange traded funds (ETFs) to track bitcoin, in a watershed for the world's largest cryptocurrency and the broader crypto industry.

The Securities and Exchange Commission said it approved 11 applications, including from BlackRock (BLK.N), Ark Investments/21Shares (ABTC.S), Fidelity, Invesco (IVZ.N) and VanEck, despite warnings from some officials and investor advocates that the products carried risks.

So far the price is still around the $46k range. Nevertheless, it's a good news to everyone as this usher new money going to flow into our ecosystem. But we will have to wait for the price to move a bit to somewhat around $50k and maybe what the OP predicted could really happen as we might hit a peak and break the last all time high prior or immediately after the block halving.

[Bitcoin_people]

Since the price of Bitcoin is currently very volatile and its value has increased considerably. The value of Bitcoin has increased enough and increased by 2-3 times compared to the past. However, we can see the Bitcoin price moving higher today since the Bitcoin ETF was approved. According to it is very difficult to say what level of Bitcoin price we will see before the Bitcoin Halving, but many are speculating on what level Bitcoin price might be. We saw that the price of Bitcoin was only $12.3 during the first halving, $680 during the second halving, and $8590 during the third halving. The value of Bitcoin came in at about 12 times higher in the third halving than in the second halving, which is more than we would expect in the fourth halving. I think the fourth halving will probably be between $70,000 and $75,000.


Photo collect google

[MrSpasybo]

Since the price of Bitcoin is currently very volatile and its value has increased considerably. The value of Bitcoin has increased enough and increased by 2-3 times compared to the past. However, we can see the Bitcoin price moving higher today since the Bitcoin ETF was approved. According to it is very difficult to say what level of Bitcoin price we will see before the Bitcoin Halving, but many are speculating on what level Bitcoin price might be. We saw that the price of Bitcoin was only $12.3 during the first halving, $680 during the second halving, and $8590 during the third halving. The value of Bitcoin came in at about 12 times higher in the third halving than in the second halving, which is more than we would expect in the fourth halving. I think the fourth halving will probably be between $70,000 and $75,000.

It's optimistic, and I want to see it too: BTC will make ATH before Halving. Although this has never happened in previous cycles, but previous cycles have not had strong momentum from BTC Spot ETF. I wish BTC will reach $77.5K at halving.

However, from my more realistic perspective, BTC's strong growth right now is too early, crypto market needs more time to attract new investors and new cash flows. I think BTC could reach $49K and then return to test $39K before continuing its upward momentum.

[Gurujebs]

While predictions vary, your analysis suggests a BTC price range at the 2024 Halving from $28K to $57.5K, favoring a more realistic $40K based on historical patterns and Fibonacci levels. BTC Spot ETF approval could indeed trigger bullish momentum, emphasizing the importance of monitoring regulatory developments for accurate forecasts.

With much predictions I have seen around ETF projection of prices, nobody is saying if perhaps ETF traded companies has bought bitcoin before this and the price we are all looking into has factored in? I think with or without Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin price is going to move naturally just like it has did in the past, if these is fuel by the institutional investors and we start hearing negative news later, the price crash will be bad just like how Elon Musk did back then with everyone.

Above all, I think Bitcoin will exceed the next all time high from that $58k to probably $70k + this time because halving is projected to occur by April and we are still in early January. We have more than. 3 month more to see that happen and it's going to be increasing gradually till that day of the halving.

[gunhell16]

This is your assessment and assumption, dude, and I respect what you said. It may or may not come true, depending on what happens. Because in an opportunity like this, if we base and look at each analysis of the traders, it is quite difficult to determine which price value will actually happen.

Because we know that there is no accuracy in prediction, and we also know that no one has predicted an exact event in the prediction made by a predictor in this field of crypto space, is there? isn't there yet? That's why we are the only ones who can believe in the prediction we will make in Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency.

Everything stops at a prediction, meaning it's based on a number of assumptions:

• Market psychology has a rule: period is 4 years, usually peaking 18 months after Halving.
• Respect the continuous upward price trend: each peak is higher than the previous peak.
• BTC price is determined by market psychology, so it may imply some (albeit loose) rule.
• We can try to find out the fluctuation rules of BTC price.
• The data has sufficiently converged to a predictable zone.

I only use simple tools such as: historical closing prices + linear regression + comparison with past behavior to make this prediction. I also know that the crypto market is a lot more interesting, so we will watch it together. At least, this prediction is also a milestone for us to compare in the future ^^

Well, I like the point you're making here, dude, and I support this thing you mentioned, and you're also right in saying that we're going to witness the same thing. Then this graph pattern that you also showed can give a positive view of Bitcoin in the coming future to other crypto communities here.

And the historical ones that you are talking about will only be a guide for the present and will come in the future, which will actually be a better innovation compared to before.

[kulkhan]

After every four years Bitcoin halving happen. We saw every halving Bitcoin price increase huge up. I think in future halving Bitcoin price will also up. We know near about four month left for another Bitcoin halving and It's impact visible. Gradually bitcoin and another coins price increasing.

Now Bitcoin price near about $48k. And it is increasing gradually. And now Bitcoin spot ETF approved so market condition positive. And Coming Bitcoin halving bitcoin price will hit $80k to $100k i strongly believe it.