Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts

[tranthidung]

Above is the chart from Glassnode for Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts. The market is in a most shaking period after some months. If you are holding Bitcoin and missed chance to take profit nearly $50,000, don't feel bad.

Because

• Halving is only three months ahead
• Big whales have been accumulating bitcoin for their games.

The point of this thread is the 10+k Cohort just started their accumulation. See the top blue row in the chart and now we have three top rows (whales) are accumulating Bitcoin after long time of distribution.

Accumulating more bitcoins like whales or if you can not do accumulation, just hold and wait for a bull run.

Note:

• It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
• I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
• I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread ^{if necessary}.

[Faisal2202]

Just learned the new term "Cohort" I first read this term when I was taking the SEO course of Cohort 4 and Cohort 5, I still did not understand what its meaning was back then but I guess it means entities or some seniority level. Like in crypto, you used it to indicate whales. I am being off-topic here but I thought I should mention it.

Thanks for the encouragement, because I just saw my portfolio today and realized that I was making some good profit and I should have booked some seed profit when the BTC came near $48k but at that time I was so bullish that I thought BTC would cross $50k and make it support for future but BTC had other plans.

Now I don't have any other option but to hold onto what I have. BTW, Is there any way to time the market correctly, an easy way for a noob like me.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Yeah, I feel that some people who were targeting to sell their Bitcoin at $50k would be feeling bad right now because if they had thought that Bitcoin was going to drop to $38,600,  they definitely would have sold at $47k just about two weeks ago. Just a few days ago, I was actually saying that Bitcoin will never drop below $40,000. Thank God I didn't place a bet on it; if not, I would have lost. The market is just so unpredictable, but I know that with the sharp dip in the market, when the bull comes too, it will just be a sudden rise.

Just the way these whales are accumulating more Bitcoin into their portfolios, that's also how we should keep accumulating because during the bull market, the price will definitely cross the last all-time high.

[tranthidung]

BTW, Is there any way to time the market correctly, an easy way for a noob like me.

You can not time the market correctly, I can't and many people can not.

By the way, read another topic that can be helpful for you.

• Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you

Yeah, I feel that some people who were targeting to sell their Bitcoin at $50k would be feeling bad right now

They must experience more and already learned one lesson. Don't set an exact price to take profit, they must be flexible with the market status and if they planned to take profit at $50k, they must see $49k is good enough.
An update.

The 10k+ cohort continues to accumulate bitcoins and it's good signal for preparation of a big bull market. Notice on the contrast, whales are returning to accumulation while smaller investors are taking profit.

[yhiaali3]

Good news, this is expected to be done by whales before the halving approach as this is a golden opportunity for whales to make huge profits.

This important chart indicates two basic points:
Firstly accumulating these large amounts only about three months before the halving means that the whales are preparing for the big rally before their games even begin, this means that we will have a big bull season after the halving. Maybe we'll go over 100 k$.

Second: Accumulating these quantities will lead to an increase in demand and a decrease in supply over time, and this will naturally lead to an increase in the price, so this is a great opportunity for those who missed out on buying before it is too late.

[jeraldskie11]

It is true that Bitcoin is in a shaky moment right now, as we can see the halving is getting closer, but we still don't know where the price will go. If we look at the weekly chart, the price failed to cross the supply zone; instead, it formed long wicks, indicating that sellers are in control of the market. So it's highly probable that the price will make a significant retracement to the downside since not only is supply more than demand, but there are other imbalances below that might force the price to reverse before continuing to rise.

[tranthidung]

Good news, this is expected to be done by whales before the halving approach as this is a golden opportunity for whales to make huge profits.

This important chart indicates two basic points:
Firstly accumulating these large amounts only about three months before the halving means that the whales are preparing for the big rally before their games even begin, this means that we will have a big bull season after the halving. Maybe we'll go over 100 k$.

Second: Accumulating these quantities will lead to an increase in demand and a decrease in supply over time, and this will naturally lead to an increase in the price, so this is a great opportunity for those who missed out on buying before it is too late.

I have to points to say.

• Whales have big capital and they have to gradually, slowly accumulate bitcoin and distribute bitcoin when they taking profit. They are just started so we have a long time ahead and best in this market cycle has yet come with us.
• As small investors, we have an advantage against whales. We can easily and quickly enter and exit the market than whales. So if we can do similar like whales, we can do it better than them. We don't need months to take profit like whales and the challenge is only how we accumulate bitcoins and hold our bitcoins.

[Yamane_Keto]

Glassnode has good on-chain analysis, but sometimes there is selectivity in displaying data, which may lead to bad investment results. Accumulating live does not mean that the price will rise in the coming months. In 2019 and 2020, Grayscale was buying almost all the supply of Bitcoin outside trading platforms, and yet the price did not rise. Only after a year, so we should not expect a major change in the price until next June.

[tranthidung]

Glassnode has good on-chain analysis, but sometimes there is selectivity in displaying data, which may lead to bad investment results.

There is no free lunch so they only give some of their indicators as open access. For advanced ones, you must have Premium account to get access.

With free lunch, you only receive delayed information through their weekly reports.

Accumulating live does not mean that the price will rise in the coming months. In 2019 and 2020, Grayscale was buying almost all the supply of Bitcoin outside trading platforms, and yet the price did not rise. Only after a year, so we should not expect a major change in the price until next June.

Price reacts quickly with news, fud but with actual meaningful on-chain movements, it takes time to show effects on the market. Because people don't see it or if they see it, they just don't believe it will cause some big movements in price on the market. Majority of the market are not winners so they usually do oppositely to what on chain signals show and how market actually moves.

[Yamane_Keto]

There is no free lunch so they only give some of their indicators as open access. For advanced ones, you must have Premium account to get access.

Even the paid versions do not mean that they will enhance the quality of your technical analysis. I follow the analysis of many accounts that use the Premium subscription as the basis for their predictive models and analyze the results, but the accuracy of the technical analysis is better than onchain. I do not blame Glassnode here, but I see that they are trying to promote their services as if they will benefit traders, which is not true, or at least compared to technical analysis.

[tjtonmoy]

Above is the chart from Glassnode for Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts. The market is in a most shaking period after some months. If you are holding Bitcoin and missed chance to take profit nearly $50,000, don't feel bad.

Actually, those who have been in this field for a long time and have experienced what Bitcoin is will never feel bad. Because that's the beauty of Bitcoin investment. If you lose one opportunity, if you have the patience and right mindset to wait for the right time to come again, you will be in profit.
Bitcoin gives us such opportunities that it is almost the perfect solution for investment choice.
Here we are presented with another great opportunity to fill our bag more before the halving. Hopefully, we will see more opportunities like this with Bitcoin in the future. Because the history tells us that it will continue to happen.

[tranthidung]

Even the paid versions do not mean that they will enhance the quality of your technical analysis. I follow the analysis of many accounts that use the Premium subscription as the basis for their predictive models and analyze the results, but the accuracy of the technical analysis is better than onchain. I do not blame Glassnode here, but I see that they are trying to promote their services as if they will benefit traders, which is not true, or at least compared to technical analysis.

Do you know that whales need very long time to prepare and execute their plans (manipulations) so on-chain analysis is only for long term investors.

When long term investors see some early signals (on-chain), they will smell what whales are planning to do. It's when they will re-draft their plans more carefully and with more details in the meantime of waiting for some more confirmations from on-chain analysis. It means, if you are not whales, you only can follow whales if you can smell what whales are planning to do.

Technical analysis?

You can not forecast the market correctly with technical analysis, just like with on-chain analysis. Think wider, as a long term investor, and focus on managing your own life finance and investment capital.

[Faisal2202]

You can not time the market correctly, I can't and many people can not.

By the way, read another topic that can be helpful for you.

• Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you

Thanks for sharing this topic, it was deeply buried in the section that's why I did not come to read it, I suggest, this topic of yours (the one you mentioned above) will suit better in the trading section, or in the help section.

Talking about judging the market, I do know we can't judge the market 100% but we can make some plans or strategies to minimize the loss and increase the profit and that will do the work of timing the market. I read your mentioned topic and it was refreshing because the things were already in my mind but I was like not giving any importance to them. But now I realize the importance of a plan.

[pacar_tiri]

Planning is really needed for whales. Usually,  they will take advantage of some bad news or good news to move the price of Bitcoin on the exchange. They know that the point of movement of cryptocurrency prices is at the price of Bitcoin; when the price of Bitcoin rises, it will make the prices of other altcoins also rise, and vice versa, when the Bitcoin price collapses, the prices of other altcoins will collapse.

[Hamza2424]

I suggest add the link that directly leads us to the cohort page. And your topic is really great to give hopes to lose hearts like mine. I did not lose much but when I see the opportunity to book profit which I did not booked and calculate the total profit I would have made, I got sad and my heart says to me now next time when you see such situation do no hesitate and book the seed profit. But one side of my mind is saying to me that you should not fall for fear of missing out sentiment and should remain patience.

I do have my profit booking plan ready and that is DCA because in my opinion this is still the right time to accumulate as much as you can, but only if you wants to hold for 1 or 2 years, because current state of market is so unpredictable and you can't say if market will touch its $30k or $35k support or not, but the chances of it touching are high. So, better to stay put and wait for the right opportunity otherwise do DCA as that's the last option we have.