BTC's ATH in 2021 is not $69K, but $77K?

[MrSpasybo]

Today we have seen an extremely strong price increase in BTC: BTC has touched $64K which is the highest price since November 15, 2021. To me, this is a signal that BTC has exited the recover phase and enter the growth phase.

The concern of many investors right now is: to what price range can BTC price rise before a significant correction occurs? Typically, the Price Action method suggests that the old ATH ~$64K is a key price zone, which is where those who bought in 2021 can sell to recoup their capital.

However, this is usually only reasonable in the context of a negligible inflation rate, meaning that an investor who put in $100K in 2021 will accept $100K back in 2024. In reality, because of inflation and rising interest rates, that investor will only be satisfied to get back $110K > $100k in 2024. James Van Straten has a specific analysis of this possibility for BTC's ATH in 2021.

To understand the true impact of inflation on Bitcoin, we can adjust its November 2021 all-time high of $69.42K for CPI inflation. Using US Bureau of Labour Statistics data, this reveals a staggering reality: to truly regain its peak, Bitcoin would need to reach nearly $77K^[1].

I am not surprised with this calculation. I even believe that BTC's ATH in 2021 was set at $65K in April instead of $69K in November. The $69K peak could just be a consequence of inflation, meaning $69K in November could real value was below $65K in April. If this calculation is correct, we could see a reversal in BTC as it approaches $77k. If this happened in April, it would coincidentally coincide with my prediction of $77.5K BTC price at the upcoming Halving, although I did not have high expectation for this scenario^[2].

Do you use the Price Action method? What do you think about calculating the important price zone that BTC is about to face using inflation data? Will you act when BTC hits $69K or $77K?
[1] The Bitcoin all-time high in an inflation-adjusted world is $77,000
[2] Predict BTC price at Halving

[Captain Corporate]

I don't think we should look at it this way. We do not calculate stocks like this, neither gold, nothing gets calculated this way. We are dealing with something that is making us money and nothing more is needed to be perfectly clear. I understand the logic, yes 77k would have the same purchasing power as what we could have bought with 69k back then, but that is not the point. Numbers here do not mean just the money, think of it like a game, this is the points we collect, we look at the leaderboard, so when we get over 69k, we consider that as a win and breaking the highest price ever. Thats what we look at usually.

[MrSpasybo]

I don't think we should look at it this way. We do not calculate stocks like this, neither gold, nothing gets calculated this way. We are dealing with something that is making us money and nothing more is needed to be perfectly clear. I understand the logic, yes 77k would have the same purchasing power as what we could have bought with 69k back then, but that is not the point. Numbers here do not mean just the money, think of it like a game, this is the points we collect, we look at the leaderboard, so when we get over 69k, we consider that as a win and breaking the highest price ever. Thats what we look at usually.

This is just a suggestion from James Van Straten and I find it quite interesting, different from the Price Action we usually know. This proposal suggests a price range that holders can accept to leave the market, and it can create a fluctuation in the price line. I love his prediction and am impressed with his analysis.

According to PA, $69K is still the ATH and an extremely important price zone that we continue to monitor. If BTC can make ATH before Halving, we will have new history!

[therozaq]

I don't think we should look at it this way. We do not calculate stocks like this, neither gold, nothing gets calculated this way. We are dealing with something that is making us money and nothing more is needed to be perfectly clear. I understand the logic, yes 77k would have the same purchasing power as what we could have bought with 69k back then, but that is not the point. Numbers here do not mean just the money, think of it like a game, this is the points we collect, we look at the leaderboard, so when we get over 69k, we consider that as a win and breaking the highest price ever. Thats what we look at usually.

As far as I know the 2021 ATH is $69K because I saw it on CMC, because when the ATH was 2021 I set a target at $60K I didn't have time to see the highest price because my bitcoin had already been sold. I just checked back on CMC, touched what the highest number there was it said $69.K

[UNIVERSE]

Hah? I am quite surprised by this data and this proposal. Because so far we have only looked at data from CMC or CoinGecko to measure prices. Hmm, maybe because these two are the most frequently used platforms. However, this ectic is related to the ATH of Bitcoin in the last bullish era in 2021, I personally am still more inclined to the ATH which is around the $69k level. Yes, like most people of course. However, this new insight could be a new insight for me personally.
Thanks for this sharing.

[philipma1957]

Today we have seen an extremely strong price increase in BTC: BTC has touched $64K which is the highest price since November 15, 2021. To me, this is a signal that BTC has exited the recover phase and enter the growth phase.

The concern of many investors right now is: to what price range can BTC price rise before a significant correction occurs? Typically, the Price Action method suggests that the old ATH ~$64K is a key price zone, which is where those who bought in 2021 can sell to recoup their capital.

However, this is usually only reasonable in the context of a negligible inflation rate, meaning that an investor who put in $100K in 2021 will accept $100K back in 2024. In reality, because of inflation and rising interest rates, that investor will only be satisfied to get back $110K > $100k in 2024. James Van Straten has a specific analysis of this possibility for BTC's ATH in 2021.

To understand the true impact of inflation on Bitcoin, we can adjust its November 2021 all-time high of $69.42K for CPI inflation. Using US Bureau of Labour Statistics data, this reveals a staggering reality: to truly regain its peak, Bitcoin would need to reach nearly $77K^[1].

I am not surprised with this calculation. I even believe that BTC's ATH in 2021 was set at $65K in April instead of $69K in November. The $69K peak could just be a consequence of inflation, meaning $69K in November could real value was below $65K in April. If this calculation is correct, we could see a reversal in BTC as it approaches $77k. If this happened in April, it would coincidentally coincide with my prediction of $77.5K BTC price at the upcoming Halving, although I did not have high expectation for this scenario^[2].

Do you use the Price Action method? What do you think about calculating the important price zone that BTC is about to face using inflation data? Will you act when BTC hits $69K or $77K?
[1] The Bitcoin all-time high in an inflation-adjusted world is $77,000
[2] Predict BTC price at Halving

If you want to use inflation which countries rate of inflation?

How do you base your number's

I am USA based  I would argue that USA has suffered 25% inflation from November 2021 to today

So we would need 1.25 x 69k = 86.25k to beat nov 2021's number.

also add in that a ½ ing is coming and that 86k = 43k for a miner

SO miners are on the hook bigly .

And norms may not be on the hook at all.

Why is that lets say a normie buy the dip and Hodl guy grabbed a coin in nov 2022 at 16k

he has gone from 16k to 62k in under 2 years.  and that guy laughs at the inflation issue.

but if you grabbed 1 coin at 50k in dec 2021 and now are at 62k yeah inflation affects that person.


This is why we leave out inflation when talking ATH

[KryptoBull]

As far as I know the 2021 ATH is $69K because I saw it on CMC, because when the ATH was 2021 I set a target at $60K I didn't have time to see the highest price because my bitcoin had already been sold. I just checked back on CMC, touched what the highest number there was it said $69.K

Financial markets that have existed for hundreds of years, such as S&P or DJ, do not use inflation data to customize support and resistance price zones like this, not necessarily because of data limitations, but I think of it as a prophecy coming true: once the old high price is broken, investors' psychology will become more positive and optimistic, leading to buying behavior and continuing to push the asset price up. Inflation plays an important role in commodity buying and selling psychology, but may not really impact investment psychology in financial markets that are traded with extremely good liquidity such as stocks or crypto.

I also don't really understand the anomaly in the 2021 season: the BTC graph has 2 peaks, but according to onchain, the distribution has taken place since April, meaning the real peak in whale behavior is the lower peak. The November peak may have been a false breakout and not a result of inflation.

[MrSpasybo]

If you want to use inflation which countries rate of inflation?

How do you base your number's

I am USA based  I would argue that USA has suffered 25% inflation from November 2021 to today

So we would need 1.25 x 69k = 86.25k to beat nov 2021's number.

also add in that a ½ ing is coming and that 86k = 43k for a miner

SO miners are on the hook bigly .

And norms may not be on the hook at all.

Why is that lets say a normie buy the dip and Hodl guy grabbed a coin in nov 2022 at 16k

he has gone from 16k to 62k in under 2 years.  and that guy laughs at the inflation issue.

but if you grabbed 1 coin at 50k in dec 2021 and now are at 62k yeah inflation affects that person.


This is why we leave out inflation when talking ATH

A good idea, it is difficult for us to apply the inflation standard of a certain country to evaluate the true peak of BTC.

However, the basis of this analysis is based on the price of BTCUSD, which means considering the devaluation of USD - the strongest currency in the world. I think the analysis is for reference only, investors still only follow the price charts on CMC, CGK and TradingView, they will never see $77K, meaning the price behavior at $77K is unpredictable. Okay.

I also don't really understand the anomaly in the 2021 season: the BTC graph has 2 peaks, but according to onchain, the distribution has taken place since April, meaning the real peak in whale behavior is the lower peak. The November peak may have been a false breakout and not a result of inflation.

The story of BTC has too many variables: inflation, economic crisis, cyclicality..., and they create many exceptions to previous cycles, making prediction more difficult.

I also just mention this analysis from James for our reference, it is very different from the theories in PA. I just hope that in the future, if BTC has extreme price behavior at $77K that we will remember James and his analysis ^^

[Faisal2202]

well does it matter a lot, on a particular platform or in a specific market Bitcoin even hits $100k, will it be called the all time high because it's highly possible due to some technical error or order book glitch, so on the soft node which makes sense as well, the All time high for Bitcoin will be determined based on collective market data on that timeline.

I've seen many such events where the price was dumped and shot up for a couple of seconds, some were the technical faults and some were the fat finger events. I think in the coming timeline still we are gonna experience such events on the same node. TBH I don't care if was it 77k or 69k haha because I was not there at that time to sell, so now for any future such opportunity, I'll must grab it haha. BTW great efforts.

I'm gonna prepare a limit order for 200k or a million for this cycle if any of such even happens haha I'll be there to book profit who knows haha.

[MrSpasybo]

well does it matter a lot, on a particular platform or in a specific market Bitcoin even hits $100k, will it be called the all time high because it's highly possible due to some technical error or order book glitch, so on the soft node which makes sense as well, the All time high for Bitcoin will be determined based on collective market data on that timeline.

I've seen many such events where the price was dumped and shot up for a couple of seconds, some were the technical faults and some were the fat finger events. I think in the coming timeline still we are gonna experience such events on the same node. TBH I don't care if was it 77k or 69k haha because I was not there at that time to sell, so now for any future such opportunity, I'll must grab it haha. BTW great efforts.

I'm gonna prepare a limit order for 200k or a million for this cycle if any of such even happens haha I'll be there to book profit who knows haha.

What I'm talking about is inflation and interest rates in the US economy, and BTC's ATH was recorded at $69K in November 2021. It doesn't really matter anyway if your expectations are much greater than $69k and $77K: $200K. If you are not too concerned about price fluctuations in the journey from $60K to $200K, you don't need to pay attention to $77K, all you need is to wait for 1BTC = $200K and take profit from your BTC 

[TomPluz]

What I'm talking about is inflation and interest rates in the US economy, and BTC's ATH was recorded at $69K in November 2021. It doesn't really matter anyway if your expectations are much greater than $69k and $77K: $200K. If you are not too concerned about price fluctuations in the journey from $60K to $200K, you don't need to pay attention to $77K, all you need is to wait for 1BTC = $200K and take profit from your BTC 

This is actually an interesting suggestion on how to compute the real ATH taking into consideration the big inflation rate that many countries including the USA got into for the past months. In other words, the normally accepted ATH figure should be adjusted according to inflation. Now, if I am a BTC holder, this is a good idea to pursue as I am waiting for Bitcoin to maybe reach the $100K zone which by then I would have been on a good profit level. Although, of course, not all may consider this idea, in their decision-making as to when to let go of their Bitcoin. As for me, it is $100K that can trigger a pensive mood on my part whether to leave or continue to stay for more.

[MrSpasybo]

This is actually an interesting suggestion on how to compute the real ATH taking into consideration the big inflation rate that many countries including the USA got into for the past months. In other words, the normally accepted ATH figure should be adjusted according to inflation. Now, if I am a BTC holder, this is a good idea to pursue as I am waiting for Bitcoin to maybe reach the $100K zone which by then I would have been on a good profit level. Although, of course, not all may consider this idea, in their decision-making as to when to let go of their Bitcoin. As for me, it is $100K that can trigger a pensive mood on my part whether to leave or continue to stay for more.

We just had BTCUSD's new ATH, an event that changed the history we have become accustomed to with BTC over the past decade. All predictions only stop at rough hints, those who believe will continue to stay, those who doubt will leave. Whether $69K or $77K, I believe BTC will soon break them all easily thanks to the momentum from BTC Spot ETF and Halving.

$100K will also be an important price range for investment psychology, we have been talking about it since 2017, maybe this will come right this year!

[yhiaali3]

In fact, I liked the method of calculating the real ATH, taking into account the high inflation rate that many countries suffer from. Here in my country, for example, I calculated the ATH compared to the inflation that occurred here and found that this corresponds to about $100,000 or more.

This is true because the inflation that occurred will make the real value of Bitcoin low if I sell at 69K$, which is the previous peak price, so in order for me to get a real profit, I must sell above 100K, and I expect that Bitcoin will achieve it given its current performance.

[MrSpasybo]

In fact, I liked the method of calculating the real ATH, taking into account the high inflation rate that many countries suffer from. Here in my country, for example, I calculated the ATH compared to the inflation that occurred here and found that this corresponds to about $100,000 or more.

This is true because the inflation that occurred will make the real value of Bitcoin low if I sell at 69K$, which is the previous peak price, so in order for me to get a real profit, I must sell above 100K, and I expect that Bitcoin will achieve it given its current performance.

This is just an estimate, its purpose is probably to indicate a key price zone at $77K where BTC could exhibit extreme price behavior such as a bullish to bearish reversal. This approach is quite new and untested but I think it's quite interesting. It is similar to when we refer to the BTC price against other fiat like JPY or EUR to see that BTC had a new ATH a few days ago.

Regarding technical analysis, as other members have commented: I do not think this statement is reliable up to this point. We will be watching, it will be interesting if we see something happen with BTC price at $77K.

[philipma1957]

Or do we blow through it and get to 95k then tease 100k for a few months.
This would mean almost all miners are solid. And of course all traders are up.
Holders won't Crack at the 95k number