Halving - Do you still believe in the previous pattern?

[bayu7adi]

Someone gave their views on Bitcoin price movements after the halving via their social media account. He is a trading expert from my country and also actively provides signals for paid trading.

The clue he gave on Facebook was like this



https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/05/10/rxlvl.jpeg
(embedded the image link into talkimg because imgbb apparently had an error when accessed using my PC)

For all of you, is it patent to rely on the price change pattern of previous halvings?

We see that the BTC price graph is almost similar to the data from the BTC price graph during the previous halving. So, what makes you want to hold or add more accumulation? Are you guided by the charts alone or are there other things that you think have a big influence on Bitcoin?

Source


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[Sim_card]

what makes you want to hold or add more accumulation? Are you guided by the charts alone or are there other things that you think have a big influence on Bitcoin?

I am bad at chart reading and I don't care about the price movement of bitcoin on chart, because I am still accumulating more bitcoin since I just started my bitcoin journey and I don't have enough to make me stop accumulating. What makes me to continue buying more bitcoin and hodli is because I am saving for my future when inflation might be ×100 the normal price. By then bitcoin price would have reached above 500k. That is when I will start selling some coins. The bottom line is that I see bitcoin as safe haven.

[Lucius]

I will say that I hope that the pattern will be repeated, i.e. that the halving will have a positive effect on the price as before. What somewhat disturbed the usual sequence of events was the new ATH before the halving, but there was a good reason for that (spot ETFs), but also the fact that in the last bear market we broke even the ATH from 2017 in a negative sense, of course .

All this only indicates that we must always be prepared for unexpected situations that can significantly disrupt what we consider a logical sequence of events. Therefore, unless something unforeseen happens, I hope that we will again have a big bull run in the near future.

[Jamal Aezaz]

I will say that I hope that the pattern will be repeated, i.e. that the halving will have a positive effect on the price as before. What somewhat disturbed the usual sequence of events was the new ATH before the halving, but there was a good reason for that (spot ETFs), but also the fact that in the last bear market we broke even the ATH from 2017 in a negative sense, of course .

All this only indicates that we must always be prepared for unexpected situations that can significantly disrupt what we consider a logical sequence of events. Therefore, unless something unforeseen happens, I hope that we will again have a big bull run in the near future.

Yes history will repeat itself once again but I think people are afraid of such lower prices and they are selling their coins with loss which also affects the market negatively. If we wait and keep the previous history of halving in mind then we will not be caught in the opposite direction.

Everyone knows that better things need time but still they are not ready to wait for the best maybe they don't believe that halving will bring huge profit for them or maybe they think that now bear season has initiated.

Both situations can give us a reward whether it is a bull season or bear season.

Market fluctuations will move the price from lower to upper worth but everything can be achieved with patience and we should not take any decision during this dump for which we will regret in future.

[Faisal2202]

We see that the BTC price graph is almost similar to the data from the BTC price graph during the previous halving. So, what makes you want to hold or add more accumulation? Are you guided by the charts alone or are there other things that you think have a big influence on Bitcoin?

You have shared a good piece of information but as a normal trader with no high technical skills its hard for me to understand it fully but I do understand some. I am not accumulating anymore but holding what I have accumulated till now. I don't depend only on charts but on other factors too. Because I know charts are based on historical data and historical data can't predict the future 100%.

For example, till now all the charts have shown that BTC makes new ATH after the halving, but only this time due to massive adoption, BTC made new ATH before the halving and falsified all of the historical charts and charts based predictions. I saw this pattern for the first time, and its not very convincing that I will start to invest again, because investing is  decided after several thoughts, as we can't invest in a coin only on the basis of charts.

[armanda90]

Looking with previous pattern every halving edition I believe with your expert trading analyze how potential for bitcoin after halving increasing to higher price. Since correction under $60k I have invested more in bitcoin and keep active accumulate as much possibility if another correction coming every time.
No doubt with previous pattern of halving edition seems the same for bitcoin price, I sure in this moment after few months from halving bitcoin has potential will raise to higher price. Lest see around one or two months later seems the pattern of previous bitcoin price will come true and bitcoin break out higher price.

[bayu7adi]

You have shared a good piece of information but as a normal trader with no high technical skills its hard for me to understand it fully but I do understand some. I am not accumulating anymore but holding what I have accumulated till now. I don't depend only on charts but on other factors too. Because I know charts are based on historical data and historical data can't predict the future 100%.

For example, till now all the charts have shown that BTC makes new ATH after the halving, but only this time due to massive adoption, BTC made new ATH before the halving and falsified all of the historical charts and charts based predictions. I saw this pattern for the first time, and its not very convincing that I will start to invest again, because investing is  decided after several thoughts, as we can't invest in a coin only on the basis of charts.

Therefore, I am even sure that some people feel motivated by the brightness of Bitcoin in the future considering that this seems to be a special encouragement for people who have felt a little loss recently. I also have the same belief as you, where predictions based on history cannot be 100% accurate, but at least this gives us another view that there is a few percent possibility of historical data becoming a benchmark again because we always see ATH always related to the Bitcoin halving.

As @Lucius said, we must be prepared for unexpected circumstances. The ETF ahead of the halving did change the pattern a bit, but we still don't see much in terms of future surprises. Keep our eyes on the market and also several news portals to get updates regarding Bitcoin movements.

[ABCbits]

It'd be great if it's true, but previous event doesn't guarantee future event. So personally i don't believe same pattern will always happen. And this chart analysis doesn't consider major event (such as SegWit activation and BCH hard fork on 2017).

[Lucius]

Yes history will repeat itself once again but I think people are afraid of such lower prices and they are selling their coins with loss which also affects the market negatively. If we wait and keep the previous history of halving in mind then we will not be caught in the opposite direction.
~snip~

I don't know what kind of low prices you are talking about considering that 1 BTC is still worth over $60k? About 1 year ago, the value was half as much, and some 18 months ago it was even 4 times less than today. If people failed to profit in all this, I really don't know what their problem is and whether they are perhaps too greedy or misled by various influencers who mostly talk about things they know nothing or very little about...

[Rubel007]

Halving plays a big role in Bitcoin price growth but I don't worry too much about Bitcoin halving because I know trading business is all about sentiment. Some will buy and some will sell. But it is difficult to determine exactly when the right time to buy and sell will come. I focus on holding not trading. For which I have no worries about Halving. However, Halving proceeds according to the pattern of previous Halving. As each halving decreases the supply and increases the price of Bitcoins, holders will surely get a good reward after a certain period of time.

[Litzki1990]

The Bitcoin halving season has started and that season has ended but during this time the market has changed a bit that the change was expected. The market has changed as much as it was supposed to or dumping as much as it was supposed to but the market has not dumped as much but the market is in a very good condition so far. Currently we are seeing the Bitcoin market hovering between $68k and $60k. Although the market broke the $60K support several times and came down, Bitcoin did not stay below $60K for long. Now in the market condition, it seems that the market may dump a little more from this position and pump later and the positive chart that we have observed earlier may follow the positive chart of the market again.