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Messages - Peter90

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1
What The Rising Gold Price Signals (Spoiler Alert: Nothing Good)


While commentators have focused on gold’s spectacular price rise, there is an underlying issue that is also taking place.  The record setting gold price is signaling that the present fiat monetary order, which is based on the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, is coming to a financially unpleasant end.

Ever since 1971, when the Nixon Administration closed the “gold window,” refusing to redeem gold for dollars held by foreign central banks, the world has been on a “dollar standard” where bank reserves are held in Greenbacks.

If the Fed continues to print dollars to sustain government spending at this rate, the dollar will continue to lose purchasing power and foreigners will no longer want to hold them.  Foreign central banks will then turn to gold.  In fact, central banks are already increasing their positions in gold which has been a catalyst that has fueled the latest rally.

Not surprisingly, the Fed has not purchased much gold (or is not admitting publicly that it has) since it would be a bad look for the issuer of the world’s reserve currency to be abandoning its own currency for gold.

Besides the severe financial implications if the dollar is dethroned, there will be dramatic geopolitical repercussions from the loss of its hegemony.  Just like the British pound was replaced as the dominant world currency after England insanely exhausted itself in fighting WWII and ending its empire, America will face a similar future when the dollar becomes just another money.  Many will see it as a “blessing” if and when the U.S. Empire comes to an end.

While it would appear logical and morally sound to replace the present crumbling monetary order with one based on gold and silver, a far worse paradigm than even the present one is, no doubt, being planned.

The new system will be one of central bank digital currency (CBDC) which would give governments and bankers the power to monitor and control all aspects of economic and social life.

zerohedge.com

2
According to Zerohedge, BTC surged not because of previous halving or the introduction of BTC ETFs in January etc... It was primarily due to capital outflowing from China.
So that if you want to know whether BTC will go up or down you should look at China's capital outflows figures.

This is the article



October 2023:

..........



And while conventional wisdom is that this surge in the price of the digital currency was largely due to the January launch of Bitcoin ETFs, what many missed was a Reuters story in January which confirmed that ... it is China's massive wall of inert capital that has been the biggest driver of bitcoin moves, and never more so than during periods of FX and capital outflows which usually precede some form of capital controls.

This was the Reuters story:






We hope that we don't have to remind readers that the first big trigger for bitcoin's unprecedented eruption higher starting in 2015 was - you guessed it - China's August 2015 FX devaluation*



*FX = forex
FX devaluation = devaluation of the RMB/Yuan



We bring all this up because six months after our first correct prediction that China's spike in FX outflows would send bitcoin surging, it's time to do it again.

So don't be surprised if in the next 6 months Bitcoin doubles again, and the move has nothing to do with ETF inflows, the halving, or frankly anything else taking place in the US... and instead is entirely driven by China's massive wall of money which at last check was almost 3x bigger than the US.


3
~snip~
This is called Leveraging the international section of the forum
;D


I wonder if there are any Chinese people on the forum who could answer that question? Still, it's worth a try - maybe one of the 1.5 billion Chinese will show up and answer :)

However, in the article linked by @TomPluz, it seems that there is not much doubt about whether (at least for now) Chinese from China will be able to invest in approved crypto ETFs.

Quote
“A lot of people are banking on wealthy Chinese locals, but, officially, you cannot buy this ETF if you're a mainland Chinese investor,” said Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg. That’s because it must be listed on something called the Stock Connect, which allows Chinese citizens to invest in certain Hong Kong ETFs, and vice versa.
“This will never be available there,” says Balchunas.

... looks like our Chinese forum friends aren't better than us
:D

4
Stable Coins Forum / Re: Kinesis Stablecoins
« on: April 23, 2024, 10:13:04 PM »
OP you seem to be very knowledgeable about this project. Please let me ask, if you're ever European too, do you know if Kinesis stablecoins will be impacted by the ongoing MiCA regulation?
One of its objectives is to regulate stablecoins in the EU and, in the long term I believe, to favor the digital euro over other $tablecoins. For example, USDT should be banned in the EU from June 30. I wonder whether Europeans will still have access to the services/stablecoins we're talking about in this topic, in the short/medium term.





FIRST POST IN THIS THREAD FROM A NON-OP USER!
 ;D



MICA
Kinesis has grown slowly, the main reason is that they have been trying to copy with all different regulations - present and future - around the world.
For example, 6 years ago when they made their ITO in order to raise capital, they decided to not sell their KVT in the USA in order to avoid possible issues with the regulators.
They have a partnership with the Indonesian government, and they aim to do other partnerships with public entities.
Of course a condition for any public entity to do business with you is that your track record of following regulations - all around the world - must be impeccable.

That said, will Kinesis be impacted by the MICA regulations?
I don't know.
Do MICA regulations concern precious metals?
As Kinesis currencies are gold and silver, maybe not. Maybe they are considered just as commodities.
But gold and silver are also currencies, so maybe yes.

To be honest I asked it on X, replying to a post of BIS (Bank for International Settlement) that was mentioning MICA, but of course I got no response  :D

5
Stable Coins Forum / Re: Does a legit Silver backed stablecoin exists?
« on: April 23, 2024, 09:42:57 PM »
--snip--

Thank you very much for your reply and for all these details.

The project does indeed look solid and serious, looks very interesting. I'll take a little more time to read your dedicated topic, and to check where I can swap KAG without KYC (if it's possible of course).

Audits are reassuring.

I'm looking more for gold/silver stablecoins to diversify my portfolio on the long term (trying being less a BTC/XMR "maxi"); not so much for day-to-day spending, although that is indeed a great idea.

Hi paid
unlike ETFs, Kinesis offer regular audits and they don't require neither storage nor management fees.
The Kinesis card is also an advantage compared to ETF: you can use your gold and silver in order to pay everywhere Mastercard is accepted.


KYC:
Following regulations today is a condition for adoption of any currencies, that means KYC, AML etc.
So in order to open a Kinesis account KYC is needed


... unless of course you opt for the Stand-alone Wallet  :D

"What is the purpose of the stand-alone wallet:
The purpose of the stand-alone wallet is predominantly aimed at users who are interested in interacting with the Kinesis system and its currencies without having to participate in KYC verification, maintaining complete anonymity.
What are the restrictions of using Kinesis Stand-alone wallet:
The stand-alone wallet can only hold KAU and KAG, not KVTs, or any other cryptocurrency.
Additionally, users who store their Kinesis currencies in the stand-alone wallet are not eligible for any of the various Fee Sharing Yields on offer."

I have no idea how this Stand-alone wallet works...

6
Stable Coins Forum / Re: Accepting Stablecoins for Big-Ticket Items?
« on: April 23, 2024, 09:21:23 PM »
Yes, don't want to have any funds frozen. Bitcoin can go up but also down of course, since I need the money for the boat to buy another home I'm not willing to gamble too much.

Hola Daiana
si tu lengua madre es castillano, según mi teoría vienes de Argentina!  :D


Funds frozen:
if you don't want funds frozen, the first thing to do is not to buy assets of a company that isn't regulated.
Because authorities can block those assets anytime, using as justification the fact that that company isn't following the rules (AML, KYC etc.)
Tether isn't regulated - at least in the USA (where they keep all their reserves)


Bitcoin:
you said that you want to avoid volatility i.e. risk, so forget BTC


USDT:
USDT is backed by multiple financial assets
The value of those assets can decrease (or crash)
If someone is trying to avoid risks, USDT is not the best choice.


USDT:
If you want to avoid risks, stay away from companies that don't let the assets backing their coins be audited
Tether don't let their reserves be audited


USDT:
If you are a trader and want to park your money short term, waiting for the next train, that's ok.
But if you want to save a big chunk of money, buying a coin whose value is pegged to a weak currency like the USD isn't smart.
(Particularly when there are coins pegged to harder currencies out there)

Look how much purchasing power the USD has lost in the last 20 years



If 20 years ago you had sold your boat in order to buy a house, and you had put the proceeds in something like USDT, today you could buy only an apartment.

USDT is a stablecoin, but it's not a stable coin.
It's a stablecoin only by name.
A stablecoin is a coin that doesn't loose purchasing power.

7
Stable Coins Forum / Re: Is Tether a Fraud?
« on: April 23, 2024, 08:39:33 PM »
It's very scary that Canada prohibits trading USDT, I don't understand where the error lies with USDT in Canada.
Including large markets such as Coinbase which prohibits USDT trading in Canada, perhaps other members have a better understanding of this issue.
Or maybe there are members on altcoinstalks who are originally from Canada, why does this problem occur.

Hi erus
USDT in Canada is not regulated

Neither in the USA USDT is regulated, but since Tether massively finances the US Treasury, authorities have gone easy on Tether

Nevertheless Tether's - regulated - competition are pushing authorities to go after USDT

8
Stable Coins Forum / Re: Is Tether a Fraud?
« on: April 23, 2024, 08:32:58 PM »
By the way Tether was repressed in Canada last year, for example coinbase and others removed the possibility to trade in pairs with USDT. By the way, is there anyone who lives in Canada, how has it affected your trading, since a year is coming up?

P.S. It is very interesting to get an answer to this question from knowledgeable users.

USDT is not regulated in Canada
Canada's authorities are cracking down everything which doesn't follow the rules
for ex. KYC

9
Stable Coins Forum / Re: FDUSD volatily
« on: April 23, 2024, 08:22:23 PM »
I am analyzing the FDUSD volatily and I can see that it always goes up to 1.0030+ when there is a launchpool announced and then dips to 0.9980 areas when it's finished.
 
However, there seem to be other factors that make it go up and down.
 
Since BTC/FDUSD is fee free and BTC/USDT is not, my assumption that perhaps has to do with users accumulating FDUSD for some reason to buy BTC later or leverage it or something like that. But that's just an assumption.
 
Did anyone make a decent research on the topic? 
Couldn't find anything useful on Google about it.

Hi Gerbert
According to my categorisation (see The 6 Types of Stablecoins) FDUSD belongs to the 4th category:
4. Stablecoins backed by financial products

From the article mentioned by HB:
"Those (Stablecoins) backed with more volatile collateral assets were more susceptible to going off-peg, compared to those with more stable assets backing it"

FDUSD is not backed by US dollars but by financial assets.
As the value of the assets backing FDUSD changes, it's normal that the value of the coin changes as well, losing its peg to the $

10
I can understand the motives for staking when the market is falling or there are no indicators that Bitcoin may increase, but I see an increasing interest in staking stablecoin, as with a quick search on social media or asking some of my trader friends, I was surprised that some of them are staking large amounts while the market is rising and can earns more by buying Bitcoin.

Maybe they have seen charts like this
and understand what a crash of the stock market will mean for BTC


11
De-dollarization...




12
Stable Coins Forum / Re: Does a legit Silver backed stablecoin exists?
« on: April 22, 2024, 01:49:58 PM »
Upon searching the internet, I came across KAG. A crypto backed with physical silver. I just did a google search with this but I haven't delved too much into it. Please invest with caution.

https://kinesis.money/

Thank you!

I've also seen this coin appearing in a few searches, but I've stopped looking for it for the time being because IIRC it's only available on Stellar (I'm not sure if that's the right, will double check later), and it doesn't suit me much to get a new wallet only for the silver. Would like to find somethig on Polygon or ERC20.

That being said, it seems legit from the little I've read about it

Hi paid
hi crwth
this forum has a thread dedicated to Kinesis
Kinesis Stablecoins
If you are looking for info about Kinesis you can start from there.


Kinesis offer two currencies, KAU (gold backed) and KAG (silver backed).

You mention proof of reserves.
Kinesis is the only company that offers an independent quarterly audit of the metals backing their currencies, so if you are looking for legit you won't find anything more legit than Kinesis.
That's why I have chosen to participate to their affiliate program, as you can see from my signature.


They chose the Stellar blockchain instead of the Ethereum network because KAU and KAG are designed to be used as everyday currencies, not just as a way to invest in precious metals, so Kinesis needed a blockchain that allowed fast transactions and low fees.

Why the Kinesis Blockchain Network was forked from Stellar



You mentioned Tether Gold (XAUt)
Unlike KAU, XAUt is not designed to be used as a currency.

I opened a thread about XAUt
I have compared Tether Gold with Kinesis KAU

You can see the difference between KAU (designed to be everyday currency) and XAUt (designed only as a vehicle for investing in gold).
I don't know if you are interested in a silver backed coin just in order to invest in silver or if you want to use your silver as a everyday currency.

13
Economics , Sociology & Politics / Re: Gold and Bitcoin
« on: April 22, 2024, 07:53:51 AM »
So, my question is, for those of you that actually have good knowledge about Bitcoin and gold, which will you love to invest in, and what is your reason for choosing the asset?

Many people consider BTC a safe heaven, like gold.
That's why they call BTC "digital gold".

A safe heaven is an asset that saves you when the economy and the financial markets collapse.





If BTC behaves like Nasdaq it's not a safe heaven.
BTC is not digital gold.

14
Economics , Sociology & Politics / Re: Why do we have inflation ?
« on: April 21, 2024, 05:06:50 PM »

When I hear people talking about "progress with monetary expansion policies"... I wish they could - for a moment - lose their privileges and share the same condition of those billions of people who struggle protecting themselves from inflation...

... like these people in Argentina




This is inflation
People working... saving... their entire life... for nothing





"Inflation is necessary for economic development"

This is MSM propaganda
The fact that inflation goes with economic development doesn't mean that inflation is the cause of economic development.

Correlation isn't causation

Inflation is not necessary for economic progress.
For centuries there was economic progress without inflation: despite economic progress, that gold coin didn't lose purchasing power

15
I am expecting some impact for Bitcoin that this approval of ETFs in the Hong Kong market though everything will depend on the volume of the demand this platform will be creating.

I still don't understand whether and how easily Chinese can trade in HK.
If they can, HK BTC ETFs inflows will be massive.
If they can't, those ETFs will be inconsequential - I think

I am also thinking of the same thing. I used to assume that mainland Chinese can access the crypto market the way it is right now in Hong Kong but I think I am wrong. Chinese coming from the mainland are having a hard time getting into the crypto market in Hong Kong based on this article published by Yahoo Finance. While we know that some can be able to get through using "underground" means and ways, they will not be making that big impact in the market. Hence, the conclusion is that "Hong Kong’s crypto ETFs will be ‘nickels and dimes’ compared with U.S. versions" all because this is going to be limited to the Hong Kong market sans China which is a lot bigger and can even be compared to USA, for that matter. Nevertheless, this can still help even in limited ways and if many countries will also be following this lead then maybe there can be an avalanche of more demand for Bitcoin aside from the one in the USA.


Can Chinese buy BTC ETF in Hong Kong Exchange?

This is called Leveraging the international section of the forum
;D

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