USD/JPY Rises to Highest Since 1990


This morning the USD/JPY rate is around 153.20 yen per US dollar, which was facilitated by a sharp strengthening of the dollar against the backdrop of news about inflation in the United States. Thus, the yen weakened to levels last seen in mid-1990.

At the same time, an important event occurred — a bullish breakdown of the level of 152 yen per US dollar. This level is special due to the fact that in 2022, the weakening of the exchange rate to 152 yen per US dollar forced the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance to intervene three times, as Reuters writes, to support the yen.

In 2023, it also acted as a barrier to growth. It also held back the market during March 2024 and early April.

But yesterday the level of 152 yen per US dollar did not survive.



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The US Dollar Rose Sharply after Inflation Data. When Is Correction Possible?


For the second time this year, the US consumer price index turned out to be higher than experts predicted. Thus, in February the figure increased from 3.1% to 3.2%. In March, the consumer price index, exceeding the expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, was at 3.5%. The continued rise in inflation, coupled with a strong labor market, contributed to:

Fed representatives are extremely cautious regarding the future direction of monetary policy;
market participants are lowering expectations of how many quarters of a percent the rate could be cut this year.
As a result of the current situation, European currencies returned to recent lows, and the USD/JPY pair updated its 2022 high.

USD/JPY

US dollar buyers in the USD/JPY pair managed to move above the important support level of 152.00. The price on the USD/JPY chart rose to 153.20, but further pricing of the pair will depend on the actions of the Japanese regulator. Bank of Japan officials have repeatedly stated that near 152.00 they may resort to foreign exchange interventions to support the national currency. With the intervention of the central bank, the pair may correct to the nearest support levels at 152.00-150.00. At the same time, we cannot exclude continued exponential growth in the direction of 155.00-154.00.

Important for USD/JPY pricing will be today's news on the US producer price index for March and weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits.

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ADA Drops to Last Place in the Top 10 Cryptocurrencies


ADA, the native blockchain token of the Cardano network, has dropped to 10th place among the cryptocurrencies with the largest capitalization. Today, according to CoinMarketCap, the capitalization of Cardano (ADA) is USD 20.7 billion.

On the one hand, this happened due to the success of such competitors as:
→ Dogecoin (DOGE) with a capitalization of USD 27.1 billion, approximately +108% since the beginning of the year;
→ Toncoin (TON) with a capitalization of USD 23.7 billion, approximately +193% since the beginning of the year.

On the other hand, the ADA/USD rate behaves weaker than other cryptocurrencies. Year to date, it has dropped by several percent since January 1, 2024. And this is against the background of a bull market, which should greatly confuse investors.

Will Cardano (ADA) be able to strengthen its position in the top 10 cryptocurrencies?

Bulls' hopes may be tied to the approaching Chang update (expected in the second quarter of 2024), which will implement the concept of a self-governing community on the blockchain by introducing delegate representatives (DReps) and community voting to approve the first draft of the Cardano Constitution.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Rate Cut Rhetoric Blunts US Stock Market Performance


Analysts' speculation regarding the central bank policy within the United States has been very much based on sentiment over the past few months.

A few months ago, a quick glance at the mainstream financial headlines would have been enough to ensure a clear view that 2024 would be a year of reducing interest rates, and commentators and analysts had even made predictions regarding actual times during the year at which rate cuts would take place.

These predictions were scuppered in February when minutes from the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting at the end of January stated that the Federal Reserve Bank would not be reducing interest rates in the early part of this year and was sticking firmly to its conservative policy of working toward a sustainable 2% inflation rate.

That dialogue has resurfaced this morning, this time as a result of the Federal Reserve having maintained its forecast for lowering interest rates three times this year despite not having done so in the first quarter as was expected by so many pundits, but this time, the talk is more focused on whether these will actually go ahead at all.

In Minneapolis, Minnesota, the state Federal Reserve president Neel Kashari commented that the central bank might look to keep interest rates at their current level for the remainder of the year if inflation progress stalls, an interesting remark at the beginning of earnings season for many large publicly listed North American companies.

Some asset managers have written to their clients and advised that they hold the view that the Federal Reserve will not reduce interest rates this year. What will actually happen is still very much open to speculation until any decision is announced by the central bank.

On this point, stock markets across the United States remained flat as US equities concluded yesterday's New York trading session nearly flat, as investors embarked on a significant week poised to include the latest inflation figures, which could influence expectations for interest rate cuts, and the commencement of the earnings season for the first quarter.

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BTC/USD Analysis: Bitcoin Price Rises Ahead of Halving


The halving (reduction of block mining rewards) is expected to occur on April 19-20.

Theoretically, Bitcoin mining will become less profitable, leading to a reduction in coin supply. Given unchanged demand, this should drive up the BTC/USD price. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has forecasted that the cryptocurrency market cap will double by the end of 2024, reaching $5 trillion, with Bitcoin's halving contributing to this growth.

In practice, Bitcoin price is influenced by too many factors to conclusively prove the bullish impact of halving. For instance, looking at history, the last halving occurred on May 11, 2020, and the price increased by approximately 12% in the following week. On the other hand, today's Bitcoin price might already reflect the imminent halving.

Nevertheless, the market currently shows predominantly positive sentiment, as over the weekend, BTC/USD price rose by around 2.5%.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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• The US Stock Market Awaits the Publication of NFP and Unemployment Data
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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TSLA Analysis: Price Recovers after Disastrous Report


We previously wrote that lower vehicle deliveries could lower TSLA's stock price.

And as it became known on Tuesday, Tesla, led by Elon Musk, delivered just 386,810 cars in the first three months of 2024 - 14% below analysts' forecasts, according to Bloomberg. As a result, Tesla shares fell 4.9% that day, extending their 2024 decline to 33%, the worst performance in the Nasdaq 100 Index.

What is the market outlook?

Bullish arguments:
→ After a strong disappointment on Tuesday, the price of TSLA showed signs of stability on Wednesday and Thursday. Since these were bullish candles, and the market was recovering despite the non-bearish gap on Tuesday, this can be interpreted as a sign of demand.
→ From the point of view of technical analysis, the market is supported by the lower border of the downward channel (shown in red). The price forms rebounds from this border, as shown by the arrows.
→ Bloomberg writes about a decrease in the number of short positions after the report on Tuesday. This could be a sign that short position holders do not see any further decline in the price of TSLA and are taking profits.

Bearish arguments:
→ TSLA price is still in the lower half of the downward channel, despite the bullish sentiment in the stock market.
→ Resistance may come from the level of USD 183 per share and the median line of the descending channel.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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