For anyone holding Chinese stocks, the past few years have been quite the rollercoaster ride. From the US crackdowns on American depositary receipts (ADRs) to internal Chinese antitrust action against the country's tech giants, equities in the world's second-biggest economy have been under constant pressure.

As a fast-growing market with low correlation with the US and Europe, Chinese stocks were initially seen as a key asset class for risk-tolerant investors looking to diversify and maximise gains over time, but while other markets have enjoyed envious bull runs over the past 3-4 years, China's household tech names have endured a seemingly endless grind lower, followed by a period of post-COVID stagnation.

To put things into perspective, while Amazon has more than doubled in value since the start of 2023, Alibaba was at the exact same level on 17 April 2024 as it was in November 2022. It's a similar story for Tencent Holding and Baidu, which have barely managed to record 10% growth over the same period. But there finally appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel following welcome news from the China Securities Regulatory Commission that a wave of delistings will not be forthcoming. So, does this mean that now's the time to get back into China, and what are the factors that will drive or stunt growth in the rest of 2024?

Regulating fear

As is typically the case, the markets' fear of the implications of new regulation appears to have been exaggerated. This was then amplified further by the relative opacity and unpredictability of the Chinese regulatory environment. In the draft rules released on 12 April, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) committed to raising the bar for initial public offerings, forcing unqualified companies to delist and enhancing its oversight of high-frequency trading. This led to a two-day sell-off that saw the market shed almost 10% of its value.

Now, however, the regulator has clarified that the new rules won't, in fact, lead to mass delistings but rather simply weed out "zombie shell companies" and bad actors, ultimately leading to a more transparent market framework and sustainable financial environment.

With precisely such concerns scaring many foreign investors out of Chinese equities, the new legislation could lead to a sustained inflow of international capital over time. The impact of the US's attack on ADRs has already been neutralised by equivalent listings by many affected firms on Hong Kong's Hang Seng. On top of that, given that the effect of last year's amendments to the CCP's Anti-Monopoly Law (AML) has already been baked into prices, the path to growth appears to be clear at last.

Unbeatable value

It's no secret that China's big tech stocks are available at unfathomably attractive prices. This is unsurprising following four years of steady declines. We've already touched upon the fact that Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu have failed to register any significant growth in the past 18 months, but this is only half of the story.

Let's take Alibaba as an example. The global e-commerce titan is currently trading at an eight-year low of US$69.61 (HK$68), and with a PE ratio of 12.97, it is a veritable steal for a growth stock. At $HK300.80, Tencent similarly hasn't been lower in over six years and represents a 50% discount on its recent ATH. As for Baidu, its share price hasn't been this low (HK$93.10) in more than a decade, and its P/E ratio of 12.47 is almost as low as ultra-safe US value stocks like Wells Fargo and Bank of America.

When we take into account the fact that these companies have arms focusing on hot, scalable sectors like fintech, cloud computing and AI — all in a domestic market of almost 1.5 billion people — it's clear that hyperbolic levels of fear and mistrust are what have kept their share prices artificially low all this time. With evidence to suggest that a combination of new regulation and increased openness from the Chinese authorities could remove many of these investor barriers, we could look back on these opportunities in the same vein as Amazon and Apple stocks after the dot-com bubble.

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Libertex offers CFDs on a wide range of underlying assets, including Chinese and US stocks, commodities, forex, and crypto. The Libertex platform gives you the ability to open long or short positions in stock CFDs, such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, as well as ETFs like the iShares China Large Cap index. For more information or to create an account of your own, visit www.libertex.com/signup today.


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74.91% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Amid a stock market that has been slowly recovering from a whirlwind period of extended volatility and out-of-control inflation, traders and investors are only just starting to regain confidence in equities despite the key US indices making steady gains for the past eighteen months now. In fact, the big catalyst for the restoration of faith was the new all-time highs recorded in late March, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 top $5,200 and $16,400, respectively.

Then came one of the biggest IPOs in recent years: internet giant Reddit. Trading began under the ticker RDDT last Thursday, 21 March, with the social media firm's initial public offering garnering massive demand from retail and institutional investors alike. Reddit initially targeted a price of $31–$34 for a $6.4 billion valuation, but they didn't anticipate what would happen next.

In an explosion of interest from the full spectrum of investor profiles, RDDT opened at around $50 per share. By Tuesday the next week, it had gained another 30% to rise above $65. Since then, the decline has been sharp, but at $50.25 as of 3 April, RDDT is worth pretty much exactly the same as it was on IPO day and over 50% more than the level the company had initially valued it at. So, what does this mean for Reddit and other US stocks going forward, and is this positive market trend likely to spark a spate of IPOs in the near term?

Beware the IPO

As Warren Buffet likes to say, IPO stands for "It's Probably Overpriced". While this isn't always the case, it can often be true of high-profile offerings at times of market highs. In the case of Reddit, there definitely was an aspect of this at play, but it appears to have been more than balanced by organised short-selling surrounding the launch of the ticker. In the end, we saw typical IPO behaviour of elevated volatility in the immediate aftermath of the listing, followed by a normalisation over the subsequent week. With a current price in and around its opening level and the targeted shorting apparently at an end, one has to think that Reddit's prospects look fairly positive from here on out.

As we've already mentioned, a price of $50+ is a solid 50% more than what Reddit was hoping for when it published its 2024 IPO documents. This puts the company's market valuation closer to its 2021 target of $10 billion and bodes well for investors' assessment of RDDT's future growth potential. If anything, this is confirmation that the best strategy for IPOs is to wait for the dust to settle and make an informed decision about if and how much to invest once the initial excitement has subsided. Having gained almost 10% on 2 April alone, it looks like Reddit could be on track to set a new high over the coming weeks as wider risk appetite appears to be increasing amid a strong US labour market and tamed inflation.

The first of many?

IPOs are a lot like buses in that you can wait forever without seeing one, and then several will come at once. Now, it's safe to say that the Reddit IPO has been a relative success, and with the scintillating stories of other lesser-known names already this year, we could be in for a raft of listings in the coming weeks and months. Perhaps the most successful of 2024 so far has been that of Santa Clara-based chipmaker Astera Labs, whose stock skyrocketed over the first week of trading last month (20–25 March). Much like Reddit, a slew of profit-taking and shorting brought declines in the days that followed, but the tech stock seems to have settled to a respectable $72.25 as of 3 April. That's a full 16.4% above its opening price of $62.03.

With over 32 late-stage startups worth $2 billion or more in the Bay Area alone, there are plenty of potential candidates for a 2024 IPO. In fact, Denver-based digital promotions startup Ibotta is already planning its stock market debut, and many analysts have suggested that Stripe and Databricks — worth an estimated $50 billion and $43 billion, respectively — are also likely to want to take advantage of the increase in bullish sentiment to bring in maximum funding for minimal equity. All of this will likely buoy the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 through to the end of the year, provided that the US Federal Reserve delivers on its more dovish policy promises.

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Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74.91% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The US stock market finally reached a new all-time high this month after over a solid year of steady gains. Now, it seems as if the bulls are out in full force, with the dark days of 2022 little more than a distant memory. Indeed, the S&P 500 currently (19/03) sits at $5,172.39, while the Nasdaq 100 is valued at a cool $18,026.33, both around 75% higher than they were in December 2022. With prices at record levels, it's natural that companies would want to take advantage of higher valuations by taking this opportunity to float their firms. It may have been a while since we last had a high-profile IPO, but they don't come much bigger than a legacy social media giant like Reddit.

Reddit is set to start trading under the ticker RDDT this Thursday. Its initial public offering has already garnered huge interest from retail and institutional investors keen to take this opportunity to own a piece of this unique household name. And Libertex clients will be able to do just that via the Libertex platform. But what price is the stock likely to open at, and what kind of performance can we expect in both the short and long term? In this article, we'll try to answer these questions and more on this momentous occasion for the global equities market.

It's only a number

First, it's important to note that this isn't Reddit's first attempt at going public. It was revealed that the company confidentially filed for an IPO in December 2021 but ultimately decided not to go ahead with it. While we didn't have details of target price ranges or Reddit's financials back then, this time around, the data is much more extensive.

First, we have a firm target range of $31-$34 per share for a valuation of around $6.4 billion, down from the $10 billion they had hoped for in 2021. Nonetheless, in less than surprising fashion, the Reddit IPO is already oversubscribed by about five-fold, which means we could see prices at the end or beyond the target range. That said, the general appetite for growth stocks has taken a veritable nosedive since 2021, with interest rates at almost 20-year highs since the Fed's interest rate hike spree. Most recently, we saw this in action with the IPO of Instacart (CART), which went public at a valuation of $10 billion, which was roughly a quarter of its 2021 valuation. However, it's quite likely that over the long term, a high-profile stock like RDDT will manage to move with the wider market.

Don't sell yourself short

Another important factor with any IPO is the potential for organised shorts of the newly listed stock. Many feel that the famous maxim of "It's Probably Overpriced" holds true for many new listings, especially when made at times of all-time highs. Still, there's also a possibility that the retail cartel Wall Street Bets (which ironically shot to fame on the Reddit platform itself) could seek to turn RDDT into the next meme stock. This would mean that we might see a furious rise in the ticker's fortunes over the near term, followed by a severe crash when the bubble finally bursts.

However, we would be wise to remember that these kinds of pumps have not typically been devastating. Just look at GameStop (GME). While it's 75% down from its 2021 highs, it's still nearly 300% up from its pre-meme days. As with any stock, the chances of making gains will increase exponentially with time held, and the Reddit IPO will be no different in this regard.

Play the long game

As we've already touched upon, the short-term response to any IPO is very difficult to predict, but with Reddit, investors would be wise to look at the long-term prospects. Reddit, too, appears to have an eye on the future with its efforts to keep its user base loyal in the wake of the public offering, considering its previous opposition to attempts to monetise the platform.

For instance, Reddit has reserved around 1.76 million shares for top Redditors with high karma scores and strong moderator activity. In addition to having the option to buy at the opening price, they will also be able to sell right from the day of the IPO, an option that usually isn't given to preferential buyers. And while the company isn't yet officially profitable, its revenue was up 21% to $804 million in 2023, while losses fell 43% to $90.8 million. Moving into this year, Reddit plans to offer more advertising to its 73 million daily active users via microtargeting, which should help it grow its ad revenue going forward. The social media firm also recently signed a new $60 million per year licensing deal with Google that will see the search engine train its AI models using Reddit conversations. All of these bode well for RDDT's longer-term potential for growth.

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With a wide selection of CFDs in a whole host of underlying asset classes ranging from forex, metals and options to crypto, ETFs and, of course, stocks. In addition to major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, Libertex provides both long and short positions in many stocks, including several high-profile tickers, with Reddit set to be added once its IPO goes live. To create an account of your own, visit www.libertex.com/signup


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Many of us thought things would get back to normal after the end of the pandemic. Oh, how wrong we were! Since then, we've had to contend with hyperinflation, rising energy prices, geopolitical instability, international conflicts, and more, with no end to the drama in sight. This time round, it's European farmers who are up in arms once again, with the latest round of protests closing several major capitals, including Brussels and Paris, as well as a host of key border crossings throughout the Old Continent.

This is a crisis that has been long in the making, but it seems the big catalyst for these latest actions was the EU's so-called Green Deal, which would see subsidies slashed, especially on agricultural diesel. For farmers, it's a simple economic calculation: costs are rising and set to rise further, yet prices for their produce are falling amid tariff waivers on low-cost Ukrainian grain imports.

It would seem that the action by agricultural producers is reversing this trend, however. Over the past month alone, wheat rose a full 10% to break through the key support of $600 a bushel and is tipped to jump further as protests continue. Given prices of around $1200 in May 2022, there's plenty of room for further rises. And with oil prices increasing simultaneously on separate geopolitical factors, investors would certainly be wise to consider their weighting of agricultural and energy commodities in the coming months. In this article, we'll take a look at some of the key drivers of price action in these markets as we try to predict where they could be headed during the rest of the year.

Politics make the world go round

Despite accounting for only 4% of the European workforce, farmers represent a vital cog in the machine, without whom Europe lacks food security. This is increasingly important as global tensions rise, and Brussels would do well to recognise this fact. There's a lot of buzz in political circles surrounding the European Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) and Green Deal, but many farmers worry that the requirements are impractical and unlikely to bear fruit. Targets, such as halving pesticides, cutting fertiliser use by 20%, devoting more land to non-agricultural use, and doubling organic production to 25% of all EU farmland — all by 2023 — are viewed as totally unrealistic by producers.

What's more, the €55 billion-a-year subsidy known as the common agricultural policy (CAP) has encouraged the consolidation of farms and favoured larger holdings. In fact, the CAP has seen the number of farms in the EU fall by more than a third since 2005, leading to a concentration of large, overleveraged landholdings whose low margins force them to maximise output, a decidedly un-green business model. With the NZIA now making it a legal obligation to comply with these net-zero targets, it's hard to see how EU agricultural producers can survive without prices of staple products like wheat going through the roof. The band-aid solution of allowing cheap imports from Ukraine and beyond is ultimately self-defeating and leaves Europe vulnerable in a conflict scenario.

A double whammy

As we touched upon earlier, increased hostility and the threat of global war should be bringing issues of food security into the foreground. However, another important effect of world conflict has been rising energy prices, an additional straw on the proverbial camel's back for farmers. Oil, electricity and gas have all risen sharply in the past few weeks, with Brent and Light Sweet up 10% and 9%, respectively, and OPEC+ extending its voluntary production cuts for yet another quarter. Henry Hub Natural Gas futures may be trending down, but they're still significantly above pre-pandemic levels, and a secure, reliable supply for Europe is still far from assured. Now, diesel costs are famously subsidised for European agricultural workers, but it's a drop in the ocean when many countries enjoy at-the-pump prices of around 30% of the average European price per litre.

With the European Union set to gradually withdraw its subsidy support for "dirty" fuels like diesel, something will have to give. In the absence of any other factors, the only possible result would be higher prices for agricultural products produced in the EU. This, of course, doesn't take into account the possibility that Brussels will continue to permit the tariff-free sale of lower-quality imports from third countries. However, it would be a tough ask politically, given the environmental impact of the production process in such countries and the seemingly pointless detriment to EU-based producers. In this context, it appears as though there's a reason for both wheat and oil prices to increase in the short term and stay elevated.

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Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

After the Covid crisis, post-pandemic inflation, and volatile markets, many had high hopes for 2024 and expected a long-overdue normalisation. Unfortunately, it increasingly looks like we're in for more uncertainty ahead as geopolitical tensions rise both in Europe and the Middle East.

While things are indeed looking up for stock and crypto investors, commodities have been rather stagnant since their huge gains in the summer of 2022. Oil famously reached a heady height north of $120 a barrel, while the Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF topped EUR 330/MWh – more than ten times its current level. Even the more volatility-insulated Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price was down around 80%.

However, after much sideways movement, prices on energy resources are making significant moves to the upside. Brent is up around 5% to $81 per barrel over the past month, while Light Sweet and WTI are both up closer to 10% over the same period. The key natural gas indices have also seen a notable uptick, and this despite the end of the heating season soon approaching. But what are the reasons behind this sudden resurgence, and how can we expect the situation to develop over the rest of the year?

Dangerous times

It's no coincidence that the latest oil price rises have followed virtually exactly in line with increasing instability in the oil-rich region of the Middle East. The latest flashpoint between major producers Iran and the US has been a particularly powerful catalyst. Despite all the talk about electrification and green energy, oil is still the lifeblood of the world's economy, and any potential threat to supply is immediately counterbalanced by price increases on the spot markets.

The existing crisis in Eastern Europe and associated measures had already curtailed the supply of crude significantly, and this additional factor simply added fuel to the fire. Meanwhile, demand has actually increased as China's industrial sector continues to recover. At the same time, Yemeni actions have forced ships delivering goods to Europe to travel around the Horn of Africa as opposed to cutting through the Suez Canal, translating to significantly higher fuel consumption.

These natural factors are, of course, naturally limited in time, but there's always a risk that they could get worse before they get better, and their unpredictable nature makes them hard to guard against. Looking back at the start of the Syrian war in 2010, we see that prices didn't reach a peak for at least 18 months and remained high until as late as 2014, which would suggest that we may be in for a protracted bull market.

Don't forget OPEC

It's all well and good discussing the natural factors at play, but when it comes to oil, there's a pretty huge elephant in the room: OPEC+. While supply may be reduced and demand increased, we have to remember that the world's oil-producing cartel has a significant artificial impact on real supply. We will all surely remember that Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to maintain voluntary production cuts amounting to 1.3 million barrels per day for much of last year, and just as the agreement was about to expire, the two OPEC behemoths agreed to extend it into the first quarter of 2024.

In fact, they have also convinced the other members of the group to add additional cuts of 900,000 bpd. This means that the total voluntary production cuts implemented by OPEC+, which accounts for around 40% of the world's total supply, now amount to 2.2 million bpd. With an average global production of 94 million bpd, it's clear that any change to this voluntary shortfall could easily affect prices significantly.

Another important factor is the potential for grey market fuel supplies to help alleviate any supply-side problems that may arise as a result of a worsening of the geopolitical situation. Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude has been subject to international sanctions and price caps for some time, and yet countries such as India frequently import it at favourable prices and then refine it into value-added products that can then be freely sold on the open market, thus bypassing economic restrictions. In theory, therefore, runaway prices should be held in check by strategic supply increases in response to demand spikes. However, it's also important to bear in mind that high prices suit OPEC+ members just fine, so the likelihood of near-term price increases remains high.

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Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

It's been a rough year for much of the world, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the financial markets. Despite the economic uncertainty, geopolitical instability and higher interest rates, many risk assets like stocks and crypto have been performing surprisingly well. Indeed, these typically risk-reducing conditions appear to have even illogically helped drive demand for famously volatile instruments like digital currencies. But as one might expect, some coins have fared much better than others.

The OG, Bitcoin, has gained a more-than-respectable 105% in the last 12 months, while Ethereum has risen around 63.5% over the same period. As impressive as these results might seem, though, they've got nothing on some of the most performant altcoins of 2023. Polkadot and Cardano, for instance, have managed to gain over 100% since October 2023. However, the undeniable top dog — with six-month gains of a whopping 650% — has been Solana. But what's propelling the fortunes of some altcoins, and why are others lagging behind? And what are the factors crypto investors should be watching for the rest of 2024?

What's the use?

In a trend that has been slowly developing since before the pandemic, the success (or lack thereof) of coins and tokens is becoming increasingly tied to their real-world utility over competitors. It's no surprise, then, that the above-mentioned altcoins are all major players in the smart contract, DeFi, and dApp spaces. And the best-performing of them all, Solana, is by far the fastest and cheapest for transactions.

Unlike its closest competitors — Cardano, Ethereum and Polkadot — Solana employs a special Hybrid consensus that merges features from the Proof-of-Work (PoW) and Proof-of-Stake (PoS) algorithms with its own unique Proof-of-History (PoH). This distinctive hybrid protocol enables it to reach speeds of 65,000 transactions per second (TPS), while Cardano and Polkadot average just 1,000 TPS by comparison. The original smart contract blockchain, Ethereum, can only manage a paltry 15-20 TPS, though the project's team has predicted that Ethereum 2.0 will hit 100,000 TPS in the next year.

Nevertheless, Solana Labs' value proposition goes well beyond mere transaction speeds. It's clearly headed by a forward-thinking team with big ambitions. The upcoming release of its much-hyped Beta Gameshift product, which promises to unite blockchain with the immersive experience of Web2 gameplay in the form of a user-ready API, is proof of exactly that. In fact, if anticipation around Gameshift can bring about a full-on bull run, Analytics Insights predicts that SOL could hit $200 by the year's end.

Whale watching

With legacy coins such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, the risk of large coinholders moving the market significantly in a short period of time is much lower now than in the early days of crypto. However, for up-and-coming projects like Solana, whales can still have a huge impact on price movements. And while we've already mentioned Solana's more than six-fold price increase over as many months, it has actually fallen nearly 30% since December. Some analysts have posited that this could be due to a 'pump and dump' routine by the leading figures of a major firm whose integrity has already been called into question once.

It's well known that FTX owns over 55 million SOL, which is worth almost $5.5 billion right now. And as Solana's value has risen over this year, so, too, have the number of bankruptcy claims being made against Sam Bankman Fried's ill-fated exchange. Now, luckily for Solana holders everywhere, around three-quarters of FTX's tokens are locked up. But this won't be the case forever.

Back in November, FTX unstaked 1.6 million tokens in a move that rocked the market. With so many people owed large sums by the FTX estate and debt claims soaring, there will continue to be a huge spectre hanging over SOL until FTX has sold its massive holding. This is likely to be a factor that will restrain growth in the medium term. Ethereum, on the other hand, doesn't have anywhere near the same susceptibility to thrashing whales overturning its boat. And if the promises of Ethereum 2.0 in terms of transaction speeds prove true, 2024 could be a good year for Ether, too.

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Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Many have predicted that the next century will belong to China, and the narrative of a rising star in the East has become stronger and stronger since the turn of the millennium. This is not without its basis in reality. Since 1978, China has averaged 9% annual GDP growth and lifted 800 million people out of poverty. However, the pandemic and particularly the CCCP's zero-COVID policy have predictably thrown somewhat of a spanner into the works. In 2020, Chinese GDP growth fell to just 2% as international trade dried up amid the global shutdown. But then it shot right up above 8% as western economies reopened before crashing straight back down to 2% in response to the party's draconian citywide lockdowns throughout 2022.

Now, after a period of intense global inflation, something both strange and worrying is happening in China: prices are actually falling. That's right. Following November's consumer price index report that showed a 0.5% year-over-year decline, China is officially experiencing deflation. It might seem like a good thing on the surface, but unchecked deflation is actually the worst kind of price pressure since it prompts people to defer consumption in anticipation of lower prices. So, what are the implications of this likely to be on instrument prices both in China and worldwide?

A long time coming…

China's economic woes didn't emerge in a vacuum, nor were they totally unpredictable. Beyond the effects of zero-COVID, a part has also been played by the long-standing property bear market, youth unemployment, and the government's tech crackdown. These factors were then exacerbated by accelerating foreign capital outflows following the pandemic and a strain in relations with the US over Taiwan. For Chinese tech stocks, the effect has been nigh-on catastrophic. Tencent and Baidu, for example, have both lost close to 50% since late 2021. Meanwhile, the global household name Alibaba has tanked by around 65% over the same period. And with prices now positively falling in key sectors, it's understandable that consumers would avoid purchases where possible, which will only hurt these consumer-focused apps even further.

Even international fuel sources like oil and gas are down significantly year-over-year, and yet Chinese industry is unable to take full advantage due to weaker domestic and international demand. Pressure is mounting on Beijing to take decisive action. As such, all eyes will be fixed on this month's upcoming Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) meetings for confirmation of PBC governor Pan Gongsheng's pledge for more "accommodative" monetary policy aimed at boosting domestic demand and banishing deflation. If the expected CCCP support is forthcoming, we could feasibly expect a resumption of growth in these multi-year low Chinese stocks in 2024.

Winners and losers

It's no secret that the West has been suffering economically of late, but here, it's almost a mirror image of China. Inflation has been out of control and still remains significantly above target in both the US and EU, while fuel shortages associated with the geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe have been punishing both industry and ordinary consumers. As a result, the EURO STOXX 50 index has been fairly stagnant, barely gaining 5% over the past two years. Until just a few weeks ago, it was actually down, managing to gain a full 10% in a little over a month. This movement has been reflected almost one-to-one by the S&P 500.

It is believed that this sudden uptick could be attributable to China effectively "exporting" its downward price pressure to the West. Indeed, China represents 20% of all of Europe's imports in a trade relationship that is worth $2.5 billion per day. In sentiments that were later echoed by Societe Generale analyst Albert Edwards, Thierry Wizman from Macquarie wrote, "The longer that China fails to show that it can recover, the likelier that inflation expectations will decline in the West, as fears that China can export its deflation to the rest of the world through international trade will gain ground."

If this trend does continue, we could see an organic normalisation of inflation in the US and EU, which would lead central banks to finally normalise monetary policy and year over yearperhaps even adopt a more dovish stance in 2024. This would, of course, be great news for equities across the West.

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Libertex offers CFDs in a variety of underlying asset classes, from commodities, forex, and crypto to ETFs, indices and, of course, stocks. In addition to major Western indices like theS&P 500, EURO STOXX 50 and Nasdaq, Libertex also offers both key China-linked indices like the A50 andHang Seng, as well as individual stocks like Tencent Holdings, Baidu andAlibaba. For more information or to create a live trading account, please visit www.libertex.com/signup


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.1% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Last week marked a momentous occasion in the history of the cryptocurrency market, but this one wasn't exactly cause for celebration. After an investigation lasting almost six months, a record $4.3 billion pre-court settlement was reached between Binance and the US Securities and Exchange Commission that included the departure of former CEO Changpeng Zhao amid pending money laundering charges. The recent past has been a bit of an eye-opener for crypto investors following the FTX scandal and a number of fines for celebrities backing dubious altcoins.

But it's not all doom and gloom. There's hope that this gargantuan fine will prove a watershed moment for the industry that sees the proper application of AML and KYC regulations and the eventual elevation of cryptocurrencies to an asset class on par with equities and forex.

As we prepare for a raft of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in early 2024, the original cryptocurrency is currently eyeing a move up to the key level of $40,000 as bears and bulls battle over its next move. With a massive hash rate of over 500 exahash, miners clearly feel confident that the uptrend that has already seen BTC gain almost 130% YTD will continue. But as has already become clear since Bitcoin's institutional adoption, the biggest movements in any crypto bull cycle now tend to come in the altcoin space. With this in mind, we'll be looking at the top three alternative coins to watch in 2024 as we attempt to predict what factors will drive or restrain their growth in the New Year.

Cardano (ADA)

As a recent but revolutionary blockchain platform with a focus on security, scalability, and sustainability, Cardano has been garnering significant attention from crypto aficionados in recent years. With its strong smart contract capabilities, we can expect this altcoin to do well as such technology becomes more widely used in the financial industry. ADA has already gained over 54% since the start of this year, which, while significantly less than Bitcoin, is still impressive and leaves plenty of room for additional growth in 2024. Crypto Capital Ventures founder Dan Gambardello, for instance, predicts ADA's market cap could reach $400 billion by 2025 when it believes its price could rise as high as $11. Despite having an inflationary mechanism, Cardano's PoS Ouroboros protocol makes it a provably secure platform. Coupled with its longstanding commitment to scientific research and peer-reviewed protocols, this is likely to help boost its credibility and adoption in the growing smart contract space. A break above $0.40 will allow it to break into a bullish channel and should pave the way for further growth.

Polkadot (DOT)

As a multi-chain platform enabling different blockchains to interoperate and share information, Polkadot's unique chain-based design has caught the eye of both investors and insiders for its scalability and innovation. Despite only launching in 2020, it's already managed to rise to 15th in CoinMarketCap's rankings, amassing total capital of over $6 billion in its short history. And while it has only gained a comparatively paltry 25% YTD, this only tells half the story. A dip in the middle of the year saw the coin drop to as low as $3.63 in October, and so its current price of $5.38 (as of 29/11) actually represents a nearly 50% gain in the space of one calendar month. As DeFi becomes increasingly popular in 2024 and beyond, we can expect Polkadot's demand to grow steadily on account of its highly functional relay and para chain model coupled with its user-friendly interface. The technical analysis has DOT showing bullish indicators across the board, with Altfins scoring it a "Strong Up (9/10)" for both the short- and medium-term. If DOT can get above $6 in the near term, this will be good for its longer-term prospects.

Solana (SOL)

Solana positively exploded onto the scene back in 2020 and was quickly tipped as an Ethereum killer. This high-performance blockchain platform, which was created for high-speed decentralised applications (dApps), is capable of up to 2,500 transactions per second. With the sixth-largest market cap, SOL is already attracting institutional interest despite its relative youth and firm altcoin status. In fact, in this month alone, Solana has witnessed institutional inflows of over $40 million. This is many times more than any other altcoin and more or less half of what Ethereum has attracted. And they don't call it smart money for nothing. SOL is up a massive 340% YTD, nearly triple the gains achieved by BTC over the same period. With huge potential in DeFi, smart contracts, and dApps, Solana definitely has a bright future. In terms of technical analysis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the neutral line into the bullish zone. What's more, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators also show a red bar recession, which would suggest waning bearishness. Longer-term prices are difficult to predict, but many analysts see SOL above $100 by 2025, which still leaves it plenty of room to its ATH of $258.78.

Trade CFDs on crypto and more with Libertex

Libertex (https://libertex.com/) is a broker offering CFDs in a vast array of different asset classes, from stocks, indices, and ETFs to metals, energy resources, and agricultural commodities, all the way to options, forex, and, of course, crypto. Libertex offers both long and short positions along with leverage, providing ordinary traders with flexible, simplified, and transparent access to the trading world. In addition to digital currencies CFDs like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), Libertex offers trading in over a hundred different cryptocurrency pairs CFDs, including leading altcoins like Solana (SOL), Polkadot (DOT), and Cardano (ADA).

Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.1% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.