A lot of it really boils down to luck, skill, and knowing the numbers game...
1) Is the project real? Does it seem marketable? Does this seem like something I can see in the top 100 in coinmarketcap in the future? Does it pass the eye test?
2) Does this project have a well established social media following, does it have active pictures of the team attending events, does the telegram seem active and positive?
3) Does certain aspects of this project have low bounty participation? Some people think only signatures and translations pay out well, which isn't often the case.. think outside of the box and think of it as a numbers game (for example, can I participate in this low participation area of the bounty and earn more tokens per time spent in stakes? Start viewing everything in form of math)
4) Some projects will be scams and some will not go anywhere, its just reality, due diligence is the key.. you only need to be right 2-3 times all year to get some healthy payouts in a bull market cycle.
Good luck.