Too many different things play a role in this and I am not entirely sure what it could go with. I understand that it may not be all that simple for most people but that's just it, we need to arrange something different. I personally believe that we are going to end up seeing something %90 of the people will not guess, not because we are all wrong or we are all terrible at it, but because there are so many options. If you give a broad understanding, like say "it will be over 100k", then you will be right if it is 103k, you will be right if it is 300k, so the only people who will be right, are people who give a broad answer.