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Cryptocurrency Ecosystem => Bitcoin Forum => Topic started by: examplens on March 07, 2024, 11:36:47 AM

Title: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: examplens on March 07, 2024, 11:36:47 AM
15 years ago, 21 million Bitcoins sounded like a huge amount. Today, especially when we have greedy ETFs that buy everything on offer, it all looks much different.
For a long time, not so much attention was paid to the security and storage of BTC, and I know of many stories about lost Bitcoins. Defective hardware, forgotten-lost passwords or private keys etc... I recently read somewhere that around 4 million Bitcoins are considered lost due to similar reasons.
Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: ABCbits on March 07, 2024, 01:22:39 PM
I recently read somewhere that around 4 million Bitcoins are considered lost due to similar reasons.

I think you refer to Chainalysis research which done back in 2017.

Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?

I don't think such thing exist. For example, there are 2 more recent research which state different thing.
1. IntoTheBlock state at least 29% of Bitcoin is lost. Source, https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/21327812/ (https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/21327812/).
2. Cane island state at least 1/3 of all Bitcoin is lost. Source, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/21/more-than-50-of-bitcoin-addresses-are-now-in-loss/ (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/21/more-than-50-of-bitcoin-addresses-are-now-in-loss/).
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d580747908cdc0001e6792d/t/5e98dde5558a587a09fac0cc/1587076583519/research+note+4.17.pdf (https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d580747908cdc0001e6792d/t/5e98dde5558a587a09fac0cc/1587076583519/research+note+4.17.pdf)

Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: examplens on March 07, 2024, 01:50:28 PM
I don't think such thing exist. For example, there are 2 more recent research which state different thing.
1. IntoTheBlock state at least 29% of Bitcoin is lost. Source, https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/21327812/ (https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/21327812/).
2. Cane island state at least 1/3 of all Bitcoin is lost. Source, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/21/more-than-50-of-bitcoin-addresses-are-now-in-loss/ (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/21/more-than-50-of-bitcoin-addresses-are-now-in-loss/).
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d580747908cdc0001e6792d/t/5e98dde5558a587a09fac0cc/1587076583519/research+note+4.17.pdf (https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d580747908cdc0001e6792d/t/5e98dde5558a587a09fac0cc/1587076583519/research+note+4.17.pdf)

Yes, there are only speculations based on coins that have not been touched for more than 5 years. Hodlers can also be there.
Somehow, the most common percentage that is considered is 30% of the total. A really big amount.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Cryptsafe on March 07, 2024, 08:25:43 PM
I think there are still lost bitcoin still not yet discovered to be lost forever. Possibly they might have a recent transaction history but are lost. Although they might be in little fractions amongst circulating bitcoin and can not be detected wether they are active or not and are just little compared to the ones already detected and are already known to be missing.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: armanda90 on March 07, 2024, 09:29:35 PM
Seems some losses in bitcoin can't recovery yet with many people invested with scam site and the owner have under arrest without get back to recovery their bitcoin wallet.
not only from hype scam investment site but also many third party side close operation such as PayZa I hold my bitcoin after converting from dollar there and until right now can't withdraw to my wallet yet.
I think most 4% of bitcoin amount from supply have losses without get recovery any more, some people still looking for their potential how to recovery their bitcoin wallet although although its seems very difficult.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: dkbit98 on March 07, 2024, 09:39:59 PM
Millions of bitcoins are lost forever for different reasons, but we are never going to know the exact number.
In the beginning bitcoin was not worth a lot and people didn't care if they lose their hard drive or private keys.
I think there was some great report from Glassnode showing this information in detail, but I can't find it now.

Hope dies last :)
Man who threw away £150m 8000 bitcoins hopes AI and robot dogs will get it back
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/02/man-hopes-ai-and-robot-dogs-will-help-recover-150m-in-bitcoin-from-landfill
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Fivestar4everMVP on March 07, 2024, 10:29:35 PM
Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?
Did you actually mean to say "forever-locked Bitcoins" or you meant to say "forever-lost Bitcoin" ?, for if the former is actually what you meant to say, then it's completely different from what you are discussing, as locked does not mean lost, there is always the possibility that what is locked can be unlocked at any time.

But of the later is what you meant to say, then I would say that you are right, it is estimated that around 20 percent of all bitcoin in circulation are lost forever - according to Google, and putting that 20 percent in actual numbers, that should be around 4+ million bitcoins.

Nothing we can do about this, atleast, it has contributed the increasing bitcoin's scarcity.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Z-tight on March 07, 2024, 10:52:38 PM
A lot of people lost their keys in the early days compared to now, BTC was not worth anything then and people did not store it securely, but these days people pay better attention to their security and other than losing funds stored in exchanges or in custodial services, i don't think too many people lose their keys.

The number of lost BTC isn't something we would be able to know exactly, some people even consider coins that have not moved for a long time to be lost, but the owner could still have their keys and be waiting for the right time to spend their coins.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Wiwo on March 08, 2024, 12:23:15 AM
15 years ago, 21 million Bitcoins sounded like a huge amount. Today, especially when we have greedy ETFs that buy everything on offer, it all looks much different.
For a long time, not so much attention was paid to the security and storage of BTC, and I know of many stories about lost Bitcoins. Defective hardware, forgotten-lost passwords or private keys etc... I recently read somewhere that around 4 million Bitcoins are considered lost due to similar reasons.
Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?
At this point,  gone are the days when Bitcoin lost is a contribution to everyone as stated by Satoshi Nakamoto himself,  but now with the ETF around and accumulating almost every day,  it becomes very important to lay attention to what we considered as lost Bitcoin,  this quest can lead us into asking a few questions so as for us to get more clarity such question as.

1: what do we consider to be lost Bitcoin?

2: how do we identify lost Bitcoin and in what ways to claim that they are truly lost forever?

The above question may look similar but paying close attention to both will expose a lot of things surrounding that question,  because there have been misconceptions that any wallet that is not active for the year is considered lost,  or is there a mechanism we can know lost Bitcoin/wallets.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: examplens on March 08, 2024, 12:32:54 AM
Did you actually mean to say "forever-locked Bitcoins" or you meant to say "forever-lost Bitcoin" ?, for if the former is actually what you meant to say, then it's completely different from what you are discussing, as locked does not mean lost, there is always the possibility that what is locked can be unlocked at any time.

lost or locked, call them what you want.
Yes, we can go into detail about the performance, but we are talking about the essence.
For example, someone died and left behind a locked wallet, Are they now lost or locked coins or both? Will the owner ever come to unlock them (not for sure)? Keep in mind that the wallet can be locked in several ways.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Crwth on March 08, 2024, 12:48:09 AM
For those who died, I think if they somehow leave a note for their family to utilize, it would be a matter of time before some dormant BTCs start moving again. I remember reading about an old wallet moving and cashing out recently, a lot of BTC was dumped. It never stopped the market from buying though. It is probably seen as an opportunity to spread his bitcoin more and more, which is a good thing IMO.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: tranthidung on March 08, 2024, 02:40:51 AM
I recently read somewhere that around 4 million Bitcoins are considered lost due to similar reasons.
Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?
We never know the precise number of lost bitcoin. We can estimate it but basically with estimation, don't expect accurate one.

You can use HOLD waves and make your own estimations.

(https://i.ibb.co/6rcdDwf/holdwaves.png)
If your definition of lost bitcoins is bitcoins in inactive UTXOs for 7- 10 years, you will see it accounts for about 4.85% of circulating supply.
4.85% * 19,647,850 = 950,921 BTC.
If you use 5+ years as a threshold, it will be 4.85% + 10.7% = 15.55%
15.55 * 19,647,850 = 3,055,241 BTC


lost or locked, call them what you want.
Lost, locked or just inactive for a while but will be active in future.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: bitterguy28 on March 08, 2024, 04:48:41 AM
I myself have lost some amount of Bitcoin few years ago and up to now Never that I will recover that and will be lost forever (just wanted to contribute from my own experience)
and also I believe that there will never be a legit details of how much bitcoin was lost , because even if the wallet is not moving for more than 10 years yet it may be an active wallet or sleeping one.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Faisal2202 on March 09, 2024, 10:00:23 PM
15 years ago, 21 million Bitcoins sounded like a huge amount. Today, especially when we have greedy ETFs that buy everything on offer, it all looks much different.
For a long time, not so much attention was paid to the security and storage of BTC, and I know of many stories about lost Bitcoins. Defective hardware, forgotten-lost passwords or private keys etc... I recently read somewhere that around 4 million Bitcoins are considered lost due to similar reasons.
Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?
You must be an old user of crypto, because only in start 5 to 7 years, crypto was not that much famous, so people from that time zone must think of 21 million supply as a huge amount, while when I stepped into crypto, I thought this is not enough, because when I get to learn about blockchain and crypto technology, I realized, this is undervalued, we need more tokens, these tokens are not going to fulfil the need. But when I realized the total amount would be mined til 2140 then I calmed down, as Gen Z might not get to live till then.

Talking about sources, I found these two and they also suggest the same amount you have said.
https://support.river.com/kb/en/buying-selling-bitcoin-285917
https://fortune.com/crypto/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/
Well, the lost of some funds is beneficial for traders and holders, but no doubt it is sad that people lost there money. My cousin was a Software developer, and my Father, both spent time back in 2010 and mined BTC. But both did not took it seriously and now they have lost the keys, the hardware they used to mine, each and everything. Point is, there are numerous people who did the same.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Google+ on March 26, 2024, 10:54:22 PM
I myself have lost some amount of Bitcoin few years ago and up to now Never that I will recover that and will be lost forever (just wanted to contribute from my own experience)
and also I believe that there will never be a legit details of how much bitcoin was lost , because even if the wallet is not moving for more than 10 years yet it may be an active wallet or sleeping one.
In the past, there were still many bitcoin wallets that were sometimes hacked and sometimes we forgot the secret code we had.
So the bitcoins you own are still intact in that wallet address, which is what causes bitcoins to run out because a lot of the supply is trapped in an old wallet that can no longer be accessed.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on March 26, 2024, 11:58:52 PM
It is now known that Bitcoin is a gem and no body wants to joke with their wallet security any longer unlike in the past 15 years you are talking about. But 15 years about, Bitcoin was nothing, no body have the ability to look into the future to know that the value of Bitcoin then will become what it is today, so there's to need to even date back then. Even if we also look at the starting price of some altcoins like Dogecoin, who even took that coin serious when they first launched? I lost my first millions of Dogecoin on cryptopia exchange that crashed, it was after the coin pumped that I realized I had some amounts in that exchange.
I have not got any accurate data for the total Bitcoin that have been confirmed lost but at least it's for the better  8)
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Captain Corporate on March 27, 2024, 12:05:07 AM
It would also be impossible to calculate because we do not know what is lost and what is not. After all, if someone didn't touch any of his coins for the past 10 years, how would we know if he has access but holding it, versus him just losing it? This is why this is impossible to know. BUT there is a possibility that we could just calculate the amount of coins untouched for a long period of time, someone could calculate all the coins that hasn't been touched for the past 5 years and 10 years as well. That would give you an estimate on how may of the coins are basically out of the market and not used.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: bitterguy28 on March 27, 2024, 05:14:11 AM
I myself have lost some amount of Bitcoin few years ago and up to now Never that I will recover that and will be lost forever (just wanted to contribute from my own experience)
and also I believe that there will never be a legit details of how much bitcoin was lost , because even if the wallet is not moving for more than 10 years yet it may be an active wallet or sleeping one.
In the past, there were still many bitcoin wallets that were sometimes hacked and sometimes we forgot the secret code we had.
So the bitcoins you own are still intact in that wallet address, which is what causes bitcoins to run out because a lot of the supply is trapped in an old wallet that can no longer be accessed.
yeah , up to now I can check the wallet and the bitcoin still sits there and that is frustrating knowing that it is use to be my bitcoin and seeing the value of bitcoin now? damn that should be a big amount for me now comparing to how much it is when i lose it, while the value of bitcoin continues to increase day by day.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: tranthidung on March 28, 2024, 12:17:01 PM
yeah , up to now I can check the wallet and the bitcoin still sits there and that is frustrating knowing that it is use to be my bitcoin and seeing the value of bitcoin now? damn that should be a big amount for me now comparing to how much it is when i lose it, while the value of bitcoin continues to increase day by day.
For what you lost, consider it already gone forever.

Don't try to complicate your life with your calculation that how much does your past loss is at today price?

If you think your past loss this way, you will feel painful, more painful with time and it is not helpful at all.

If you spent your bitcoins, in another example, to buy luxury things like iPhone, years ago, don't consider it as your loss. You bought a luxury item, enjoyed it and now consider it as your loss, no life is not like this.

Cost of An iPhone in Bitcoin & Ether, Over The Years (https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/the-cost-of-iphone-bitcoin-ether)

(https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.coingecko.com/coingecko/public/ckeditor_assets/pictures/8012/content_2023_iPhone_BTC.webp)
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: IvugeoEvolutionCoin on March 30, 2024, 11:54:01 PM
yeah , up to now I can check the wallet and the bitcoin still sits there and that is frustrating knowing that it is use to be my bitcoin and seeing the value of bitcoin now? damn that should be a big amount for me now comparing to how much it is when i lose it, while the value of bitcoin continues to increase day by day.
For what you lost, consider it already gone forever.

Don't try to complicate your life with your calculation that how much does your past loss is at today price?

If you think your past loss this way, you will feel painful, more painful with time and it is not helpful at all.

If you spent your bitcoins, in another example, to buy luxury things like iPhone, years ago, don't consider it as your loss. You bought a luxury item, enjoyed it and now consider it as your loss, no life is not like this.

Cost of An iPhone in Bitcoin & Ether, Over The Years (https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/the-cost-of-iphone-bitcoin-ether)

(https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.coingecko.com/coingecko/public/ckeditor_assets/pictures/8012/content_2023_iPhone_BTC.webp)
A very large number, this is what is called a very profitable price movement, unfortunately there are still many who don't understand and are afraid to buy Bitcoin. I didn't think that the iPhone 4S was worth the equivalent of 162 Bitcoins. If only I had bought Bitcoin at the price when the iPhone 4S was trending then I have made a lot of profit and become very rich.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Tribalchief on March 31, 2024, 01:24:41 AM
I myself have lost some amount of Bitcoin few years ago and up to now Never that I will recover that and will be lost forever (just wanted to contribute from my own experience)
and also I believe that there will never be a legit details of how much bitcoin was lost , because even if the wallet is not moving for more than 10 years yet it may be an active wallet or sleeping one.
In the past, there were still many bitcoin wallets that were sometimes hacked and sometimes we forgot the secret code we had.
So the bitcoins you own are still intact in that wallet address, which is what causes bitcoins to run out because a lot of the supply is trapped in an old wallet that can no longer be accessed.
yeah , up to now I can check the wallet and the bitcoin still sits there and that is frustrating knowing that it is use to be my bitcoin and seeing the value of bitcoin now? damn that should be a big amount for me now comparing to how much it is when i lose it, while the value of bitcoin continues to increase day by day.

Losing what you've worked for can be very painful, especially when you can still see it but can't feel or make use of it. I have also lost a good amount of coins in the past due to reckless decisions. These decisions still pain me a lot, but the most important thing is that I have learned not to make similar mistakes again. I think anyone who hasn't lost his/her Bitcoin accidentally should consider themselves very lucky, because even those who are careful also make mistakes.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: EthereumDev_ on March 31, 2024, 03:15:57 PM
Losing what you've worked for can be very painful, especially when you can still see it but can't feel or make use of it. I have also lost a good amount of coins in the past due to reckless decisions. These decisions still pain me a lot, but the most important thing is that I have learned not to make similar mistakes again. I think anyone who hasn't lost his/her Bitcoin accidentally should consider themselves very lucky, because even those who are careful also make mistakes.
Exactly, regrets like that will often happen, but what we did in the past if we didn't do it, we know whether it will still survive today. As you have said, the past must be used as a very important lesson to become better than before.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Don Pedro Dinero on March 31, 2024, 03:51:59 PM
Losing what you've worked for can be very painful, especially when you can still see it but can't feel or make use of it. I have also lost a good amount of coins in the past due to reckless decisions. These decisions still pain me a lot, but the most important thing is that I have learned not to make similar mistakes again. I think anyone who hasn't lost his/her Bitcoin accidentally should consider themselves very lucky, because even those who are careful also make mistakes.
Exactly, regrets like that will often happen, but what we did in the past if we didn't do it, we know whether it will still survive today. As you have said, the past must be used as a very important lesson to become better than before.

Yes, this kind of regrets are useless and it is better to avoid them, although if it is a huge amount, let's say the typical case of someone who had hundreds of bitcoins because he mined them when they were not worth more than a few cents and then lost them, it is inevitable that he eats his head until at some point he is able to turn over a new leaf.

But it is the same thing that happens with the one who bought bitcoins for example at $100 and sold them for $1,000. If he had waited longer he would have earned much more but he sold under those circumstances and that's it.

There is no excuse for losing bitcoins (or rather the keys) nowadays. In the early years I understand that it was more normal but nowadays whoever does not take the precaution should not complain if he loses them.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: armanda90 on March 31, 2024, 04:58:53 PM
Current bitcoin supply 21 million Bitcoins right now not reach yet, many people loss their bitcoin when price still cheapest with loss from website have been scam, loss access with hardware wallet until most of them forget which one place for storing their bitcoin. Still not accurate update with how many bitcoin loss from market supply and seems more than 3% until 5% bitcoin gone based on reason above.
Its why make bitcoin keep stable in higher price without any one can't controlling or make bitcoin dump or pump, seems interested if any one can hold or share their opinion about how many bitcoin loss in their wallet?
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Stompix on March 31, 2024, 05:27:40 PM
Current bitcoin supply 21 million Bitcoins right now not reach yet, many people loss their bitcoin when price still cheapest with loss from website have been scam, loss access with hardware wallet until most of them forget which one place for storing their bitcoin.

Bitcoins lost in scams are not "lost" coins, they have a new owner, aka the scammer who can move them freely.

Also, all those numbers are just approximations, we have every month a clickbait-ish title about "satoshi era coins" moving again, so maybe a lot of those 10-year-old coins are not truly lost. Besides all methodologies have problems with one issue or the other, first age doesn't mean lost, and just moved 2 weeks ago doesn't mean the user hasn't lost their hard wallet in the meantime. Also, custodial services are not moving their coins often as long as they have in one wallet enough liquidity, so all that million coins coinbase is holding alongside what Bitgo has might look like 5-10 years old unmoved coins but are still pretty much accessible. And a ton more!

This is pretty much like trying to find all paintings from an artist, it's been 130 years since Van Gogh died and we're still finding one new paiting each year.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: dkbit98 on April 01, 2024, 03:17:22 PM
Cost of An iPhone in Bitcoin & Ether, Over The Years (https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/the-cost-of-iphone-bitcoin-ether)
Yeah, but they can't change Bitcoin every year like they change their phones, and they need to have the latest model with 0.0010000% performance improvements  ;)
I think a lot more people lost their house keys, phones and wallets than keys for Bitcoins, but collect them all together and they don't worth much compared to bitcoin.
One guy I know who sold Lambo to buy more Bitcoin back in the days was Roger Ver.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Stompix on April 02, 2024, 12:12:43 AM
Just read another article and immediately thought about this topic.
So:
https://mempool.space/tx/2c8960feef2c66a8960f058cef11f42ba883db53e3287f085bffd29d663fc98a
seems like the lost coins are now x-500 as 500 coins that haven't moved for 12 years are on the run  8)

I hope that another batch won't awaken also cause the change that funded one of the addresses went into one that held 15 000 coins.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: debra on April 02, 2024, 12:35:20 AM
-snip- many people loss their bitcoin when price still cheapest with loss from website have been scam, loss access with hardware wallet until most of them forget which one place for storing their bitcoin. Still not accurate update with how many bitcoin loss from market supply and seems more than 3% until 5% bitcoin gone based on reason above.
For scam cases, the Bitcoin was stolen by bad people. But the stolen Bitcoin still exists, they didn't disappear. The bad people must put the Bitcoin in somewhere. They can send the Bitcoin some time to the market again if they want to sell the stolen Bitcoin.

Yes, some Bitcoin is trapped on wallets because people lost the private keys to access the wallets. The Bitcoin cannot be sent to the market because people has no ability to access it anymore. For this case, we can assume the Bitcoin has been separated from the total circulating supply of Bitcoin.

Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: TopT3ns on April 02, 2024, 03:06:32 PM
-snip- many people loss their bitcoin when price still cheapest with loss from website have been scam, loss access with hardware wallet until most of them forget which one place for storing their bitcoin. Still not accurate update with how many bitcoin loss from market supply and seems more than 3% until 5% bitcoin gone based on reason above.
For scam cases, the Bitcoin was stolen by bad people. But the stolen Bitcoin still exists, they didn't disappear. The bad people must put the Bitcoin in somewhere. They can send the Bitcoin some time to the market again if they want to sell the stolen Bitcoin.

Yes, some Bitcoin is trapped on wallets because people lost the private keys to access the wallets. The Bitcoin cannot be sent to the market because people has no ability to access it anymore. For this case, we can assume the Bitcoin has been separated from the total circulating supply of Bitcoin.
If we see stolen bitcoins, they will use mixers or exchanges to launder money so that the traces of the bitcoin transactions they carry out are untraceable, so no one will know who the thief is.

It is true that many Bitcoins were trapped when the price was still cheap in 2010. Many people bought Bitcoins but they neglected to save the secret keys they had to access their wallets.
So currently, when you look at transactions in 2010, there are still a lot of bitcoins trapped in those wallets.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Lucius on April 02, 2024, 05:17:05 PM
~snip~
Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?


I believe that nothing is actually lost in the literal sense, because if I remember correctly, at some point in the future technology will reach a point where it will be able to save all those coins that are somehow stuck. I would speculate that today we cannot count on at least 2 million BTC, of which supposedly half of what was mined by Satoshi, and at least that much was "locked" or lost in the first years.

Some will say that in the beginning Bitcoin was practically worthless, but it was also quite easy to mine - and in the first 4 years alone, 10+ million BTC were mined, which is almost half of everything that will ever exist. I think that the key is in those first 4 years, because in my opinion the most BTC was "lost" right then.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Jamal Aezaz on April 02, 2024, 10:05:03 PM
Exactly, regrets like that will often happen, but what we did in the past if we didn't do it, we know whether it will still survive today. As you have said, the past must be used as a very important lesson to become better than before.

Everyone makes mistakes but that is a real person who learn something beneficial from those mistakes and if someone did no take the matter of security as a serious concern then he will surely loss his coins but due to such loss he will not do these faults again as every mistake gives us a lesson.

A person's mind is not so sharp to remember all the keys therefore it is necessary to note every single key for the privacy of your coins because to regret for past will not provide your lost money back to you.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Cantsay on April 02, 2024, 11:29:06 PM
I have not got any accurate data for the total Bitcoin that have been confirmed lost but at least it's for the better  8)

The analysis might not be accurate but I still feel that 15 years is a long time for someone to still be holding something has has risen in value exponentially since they bought it. If it was around five to six years I might consider them still holding but above that I would classify as part of those that can no longer remember their secret phrases to their wallet.

By the way, as you said it is for the better - the more that’s being lost the better for us.
Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more.  Think of it as a donation to everyone.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: MrSpasybo on April 02, 2024, 11:30:11 PM
I believe that nothing is actually lost in the literal sense, because if I remember correctly, at some point in the future technology will reach a point where it will be able to save all those coins that are somehow stuck. I would speculate that today we cannot count on at least 2 million BTC, of which supposedly half of what was mined by Satoshi, and at least that much was "locked" or lost in the first years.

Some will say that in the beginning Bitcoin was practically worthless, but it was also quite easy to mine - and in the first 4 years alone, 10+ million BTC were mined, which is almost half of everything that will ever exist. I think that the key is in those first 4 years, because in my opinion the most BTC was "lost" right then.
I don't think we'll have that technology anytime soon: it could be a machine that can identify the private key of a BTC address by trying trillions of times, or a quantum computer that can reset the entire Bitcoin ledger. I don't expect we'll have to face such things, that will be the quantum resistance problem we've mentioned many times when talking about the security of Bitcoin's SHA-256 encryption algorithm.

I think the disappearance of about 30% (estimated) of all BTC is not entirely meaningless. Although it creates regret for unlucky owners, it helps to reduce the actual circulating supply, thereby increasing the scarcity of BTC and sharing value to other BTC holders at the present. It is similar to the token burning that many projects are doing right now.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Lucius on April 03, 2024, 06:00:02 PM
I don't think we'll have that technology anytime soon: it could be a machine that can identify the private key of a BTC address by trying trillions of times, or a quantum computer that can reset the entire Bitcoin ledger. I don't expect we'll have to face such things, that will be the quantum resistance problem we've mentioned many times when talking about the security of Bitcoin's SHA-256 encryption algorithm.
~snip~

Maybe it's not a question of when we will have such technology, but that we will have it at some point - and most agree that that moment will come, and maybe much sooner than many think. Then we will have a real test of how much BTC is actually "lost", because all those who will not transfer their coins to safe addresses will be left without them.

What should be pointed out is that the technology for the masses is not always the same as the one that those who deal with such things have. In other words, maybe we will find out that such technology exists only when some strange "hacks" start happening.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Stompix on April 03, 2024, 07:20:20 PM
I believe that nothing is actually lost in the literal sense, because if I remember correctly, at some point in the future technology will reach a point where it will be able to save all those coins that are somehow stuck. I would speculate that today we cannot count on at least 2 million BTC, of which supposedly half of what was mined by Satoshi, and at least that much was "locked" or lost in the first years.

What do you mean by stuck coins?
Because no matter the technology advance, coins that have been mined by somebody and he has thrown away or truly lost the keys will never be recovered no matter what, this would be the same as hacking random address and if that would be indeed possible at one point then the value of all coins will be zero!

Recovering from damaged drives, encrypted wallets they can't remember the pass, wallets where the person has lost 2-3 words of the seed, other types of storage that have gone bad maybe, but outright lost coins with nothing to link them I don't see that happening.

Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: philipma1957 on April 03, 2024, 07:39:09 PM
I have heard

2 mil
4 mil
6 mil

A simple fork would let you learn make an abandoned address rule come into effect in 2059.

any address 50 years old that has not had coins removed forfeits the coins which go back into recirculation as rewards.

no other method reveals if a coin is lost or held.

You could place the abandoned coins in a special abandoned coin wallet  which would track just how many coins are placed in it.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: vegasus on April 03, 2024, 10:41:12 PM
Defective hardware, forgotten-lost passwords or private keys etc... I recently read somewhere that around 4 million Bitcoins are considered lost due to similar reasons.
Is there any approximately precise analysis of how many such, forever-locked Bitcoins there are?
I don't think there will be such limit on how much probably Bitcoin loss will be. Moreover, some of the reasons are because of human error, as the main reason. Commonly, some of them are losing the private keys, or other important data to access the wallet. Or even, they also lost the devices of hardware wallet or other devices for  storing the Bitcoin itself. I read this article, it actually shows that around 7.8M Bitcoins were lost.

Link:
https://coingape.com/blog/approximately-7-8m-bitcoins-have-been-lost-can-they-be-recovered/
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Z-tight on April 04, 2024, 12:10:20 AM
I read this article, it actually shows that around 7.8M Bitcoins were lost.
This is just guesswork, we cannot know the mumber of BTC's that are lost and i have been reading that it is ~ 4m BTC lost and now you say this article claims it is ~ 7.8m. Neither of them is accurate, there are so many addresses that coins have not moved out from for a long time, and people think the coins are lost, but the owners still have their keys and are just storing it for the long term. There would never be an accurate number of lost BTC's.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: examplens on April 04, 2024, 01:49:10 PM
A simple fork would let you learn make an abandoned address rule come into effect in 2059.

any address 50 years old that has not had coins removed forfeits the coins which go back into recirculation as rewards.

This is an excellent proposal, I don't know how technically feasible it is, but it is definitely worth considering.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: GxSTxV on April 04, 2024, 03:44:51 PM
The development of Bitcoin's ecosystem over the past 15 years has indeed changed and became better due its perspectives on the finite supply. While 21 million Bitcoins initially seemed huge at the beginning, but with time and factors like increased institutional interest and technological challenges have changed everything.
I think the biggest quantity of bitcoin lost was in the first years due to various reasons like hardware failures with cold wallets, forgotten passwords, or dissaving private keys, and all of this was due the value of Bitcoin those days.

Personally, despite different analysis mentioned by some sources trying to estimate a close number of the lost Bitcoin forever, I cannot definitively assert that a wallet without transactions for many years is primarily considered forgotten or lost. The owners of these wallets may be intentionally holding them for some reasons, or there will be a chance for them to recover it with the technology development.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Stompix on April 04, 2024, 03:49:03 PM
A simple fork would let you learn make an abandoned address rule come into effect in 2059.

any address 50 years old that has not had coins removed forfeits the coins which go back into recirculation as rewards.

This is an excellent proposal, I don't know how technically feasible it is, but it is definitely worth considering.

It will never happen!
Even if you increase the age, even if you decrease the amount taken by 50 or 90% no such proposal will ever be accepted.

The main problem is not what it does itself but the fact that everyone will see it as opening Pandora's box, if this happens then what's next? And people's imagination will run wild, what if next it's a mandatory annual tax of 0.1% on all coins?
Furthermore, you have Satoshi's own opinion, lost coins are a donation, he had no plan to recycle them.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: tranthidung on April 04, 2024, 05:17:47 PM
This is an excellent proposal, I don't know how technically feasible it is, but it is definitely worth considering.
I don't think so because it breaks the core value of Bitcoin Protocol. It's your private key, it's your bitcoin.

It will never happen!
Even if you increase the age, even if you decrease the amount taken by 50 or 90% no such proposal will ever be accepted.

The main problem is not what it does itself but the fact that everyone will see it as opening Pandora's box, if this happens then what's next? And people's imagination will run wild, what if next it's a mandatory annual tax of 0.1% on all coins?
Furthermore, you have Satoshi's own opinion, lost coins are a donation, he had no plan to recycle them.
I agree with you.

Bitcoin is our own banks, with private keys, or mnemonic seeds. If there is a term like this in the Protocol, and a code to refund our bitcoins after 50 inactive years, people will lose their faith in Bitcoin.

The threshold is hard to define too. 50 years, people have longer lifespan that it and even threshold is 100 years, there are people can live longer than that. More important, Bitcoin can be used as inherited asset for our children and family members, from generation to generation.

This idea breaks all of good core value of Bitcoin Protocol.

It is a Pandora box we never want to open similarly to increase Bitcoin total supply.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: taufik123 on April 04, 2024, 06:16:34 PM
-snip-
The threshold is hard to define too. 50 years, people have longer lifespan that it and even threshold is 100 years, there are people can live longer than that. More important, Bitcoin can be used as inherited asset for our children and family members, from generation to generation.
50 years or 100 years is just going to be the maximum number or threshold that we think we're going to get there.
But it could be even shorter, and no one knows when it will happen.

Making Bitcoin a legacy of digital valuable assets and will not be regulated by the government though, it will be a legacy for all time.
Even the legacy that will be passed down from generation to generation is getting bigger, but are we ready with it and can hold it for the long term.

Because the target to hold the long term is always determined by how much profit can be obtained.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Lucius on April 04, 2024, 06:18:30 PM
I believe that nothing is actually lost in the literal sense, because if I remember correctly, at some point in the future technology will reach a point where it will be able to save all those coins that are somehow stuck. I would speculate that today we cannot count on at least 2 million BTC, of which supposedly half of what was mined by Satoshi, and at least that much was "locked" or lost in the first years.

What do you mean by stuck coins?
Because no matter the technology advance, coins that have been mined by somebody and he has thrown away or truly lost the keys will never be recovered no matter what, this would be the same as hacking random address and if that would be indeed possible at one point then the value of all coins will be zero!

Recovering from damaged drives, encrypted wallets they can't remember the pass, wallets where the person has lost 2-3 words of the seed, other types of storage that have gone bad maybe, but outright lost coins with nothing to link them I don't see that happening.


I meant in general all the BTC that for one reason or another are currently not available to those who once had them, be it lost or forgotten keys. Maybe I misunderstood, but there were often discussions on BTT about the fact that with the advent of quantum computers, such coins might still be "saved".

I actually wouldn't want that to ever happen, because as you say, it would do more harm than good.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Z-tight on April 04, 2024, 07:44:27 PM
The owners of these wallets may be intentionally holding them for some reasons, or there will be a chance for them to recover it with the technology development.
What technological development? I get it that it is not possible for us to know the exact number of lost BTC's, as there might be long term investors that have not spent any of their sats and people may think the funds are lost. However, if you have lost your keys, there is no way to recover them, even with any development in technology.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: GxSTxV on April 04, 2024, 07:50:19 PM
What technological development? I get it that it is not possible for us to know the exact number of lost BTC's, as their might be long term investors that have not spent any of their sats and people may think the funds are lost. However, if you have lost your keys, there is no way to recover them, even with any development in technology.

Apologies for not explaining it well, what I meant by technological development is about either the hardware damage or losing cold wallet passwords, knowing that some people could recover their wallets they have lost inside damaged hardwares or when someone forget the password of his cold wallet. Some people still have these wallets in hands while they can’t access them so probably in the future with technology development some sort of programs or way may appear to help them regaining access.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: bayu7adi on April 05, 2024, 08:39:15 PM
As long as there is still a lot of undetected activity, we cannot be sure of the exact number of Bitcoins that are truly inaccessible. The numbers are still very random, this is because the evidence is not yet strong. If you only use evidence that the relevant wallet has not detected any transactions for a long time, it is still not a guarantee because it is possible that whales' movements always come as a surprise.

One of the most important things is that the total supply of BTC will decrease over time and demand tends to remain constant until it increases. This causes a constant increase in prices over a long period of time. For some phenomena such as corrections or perhaps a pump-dump in a short time, it is just a decoration that is present to facilitate day traders who are interested in Bitcoin.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Stompix on April 06, 2024, 06:57:35 PM
I meant in general all the BTC that for one reason or another are currently not available to those who once had them, be it lost or forgotten keys. Maybe I misunderstood, but there were often discussions on BTT about the fact that with the advent of quantum computers, such coins might still be "saved".
I actually wouldn't want that to ever happen, because as you say, it would do more harm than good.

The thing is that if we reach a stage of technology where lost coins can be recovered there is nothing stopping perfectly legit barely moved coins from being also "recovered", there will be no difference for a piece of code between old coins and new coins, it's either impossible to move a single satoshi or all of them are under threat. And at that point you can pretty much guess the value of one coin, right?

As for quantum computers..meh, first we need to see one functional, then we need a working algorithm for it, then we need to not fork Bitcoin with new improved quantum resistant signatures like Lamport.
Also, with a quantum computer unspent coins will be the safest, the weak link is the exposed public key.

Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: philipma1957 on April 07, 2024, 03:07:24 AM
A simple fork would let you learn make an abandoned address rule come into effect in 2059.

any address 50 years old that has not had coins removed forfeits the coins which go back into recirculation as rewards.

This is an excellent proposal, I don't know how technically feasible it is, but it is definitely worth considering.

Well I am older I would be 102 years old in 2059 and likely not give a flying fuck. But I suspect this is going to happen down the road.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Lucius on April 12, 2024, 03:58:44 PM
~snip~
As for quantum computers..meh, first we need to see one functional, then we need a working algorithm for it, then we need to not fork Bitcoin with new improved quantum resistant signatures like Lamport.
Also, with a quantum computer unspent coins will be the safest, the weak link is the exposed public key.


There was a good article about how "strong" today's quantum computers are compared to what they should be in order to be a threat to Bitcoin at all, so about 2 years ago we were able to read the following:

Quote from: https://decrypt.co/101340/bitcoin-quantum-computing
Researchers at the University of Sussex estimated in February that a quantum computer with 1.9 billion qubits could essentially crack the encryption safeguarding Bitcoin within a mere 10 minutes. Just 13 million qubits could do the job in about a day. Fortunately, the ability to deploy quantum computers with so many qubits still seems many years away. IBM unveiled its 127-qubit processor just last year, while a unit sporting 1,000 qubits is set to be completed by the end of 2023.

The article says that something like that won't happen for at least another 10-20 years, but considering how today's technology is progressing, nothing can surprise me.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: EthereumDev_ on April 12, 2024, 04:01:45 PM
Well I am older I would be 102 years old in 2059 and likely not give a flying fuck. But I suspect this is going to happen down the road.
All possibilities in cryptocurrency can happen because as technology grows, something new will be created. When the wallet you have is very old, we still won't get anything special, just like when you held Bitcoin in 2010 and sold it. In this year, the wallet is still a wallet whose only value is our assets.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Freemind on April 12, 2024, 05:56:48 PM
All possibilities in cryptocurrency can happen because as technology grows, something new will be created. When the wallet you have is very old, we still won't get anything special, just like when you held Bitcoin in 2010 and sold it. In this year, the wallet is still a wallet whose only value is our assets.

When there is a technology capable of breaking the security and encryption of Bitcoin, there will be a technology capable of protecting it. Technology works in both directions. I don't think we should worry about anything that some articles say, published precisely with the sole intention of clickbait. As for "recovering" Bitcoins, I think I once said that no one can know if Bitcoins that haven't been moved for ten years (for example) are really lost or if their owner doesn't want to move them, that's just another form of stealing.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Stompix on April 12, 2024, 06:11:29 PM
~

There was a good article about how "strong" today's quantum computers are compared to what they should be in order to be a threat to Bitcoin at all, so about 2 years ago we were able to read the following:

Quote from: https://decrypt.co/101340/bitcoin-quantum-computing
Researchers at the University of Sussex estimated in February that a quantum computer with 1.9 billion qubits could essentially crack the encryption safeguarding Bitcoin within a mere 10 minutes. Just 13 million qubits could do the job in about a day. Fortunately, the ability to deploy quantum computers with so many qubits still seems many years away. IBM unveiled its 127-qubit processor just last year, while a unit sporting 1,000 qubits is set to be completed by the end of 2023.

The article says that something like that won't happen for at least another 10-20 years, but considering how today's technology is progressing, nothing can surprise me.

Three is an important thing here about that cracking, it's about cracking the private key associated with a public known key!
Those numbers in the article are for that kind of breaking, which can't work again an address with unspent coins, the difference between them is insane:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Quantum_computing_and_Bitcoin

Quote
On traditional computers, it takes on the order of 2128 basic operations to get the Bitcoin private key associated with a Bitcoin public key, it is known for sure that it would take a sufficiently large quantum computer on the order of only 1283 basic quantum operations to be able to break a Bitcoin key.

So for public keys is goes 2128  to 1283, it does start to sound doable.

For a direct private keys attack, so this is lost coins like Satoshi's :
Quote
For example, finding some data which hashes to a specific SHA-256 hash requires 2256 basic operations on a traditional computer, but 2128 basic quantum operations.
although it does cut an enormous number by a huge margin, if we speak about that time in human life terms, no difference!

You want to feel safe, don't re-use your address!

Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: TopT3ns on April 13, 2024, 06:58:57 PM
When there is a technology capable of breaking the security and encryption of Bitcoin, there will be a technology capable of protecting it. Technology works in both directions. I don't think we should worry about anything that some articles say, published precisely with the sole intention of clickbait. As for "recovering" Bitcoins, I think I once said that no one can know if Bitcoins that haven't been moved for ten years (for example) are really lost or if their owner doesn't want to move them, that's just another form of stealing.
It's true, those who create articles just want to lure visitors to increase their website traffic. Bitcoin is still a technology that cannot be hacked easily, there are still many who are trying to try it but no one has succeeded. So I believe Bitcoin will be the security of the future.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: alltalk on April 13, 2024, 09:55:06 PM
All possibilities in cryptocurrency can happen because as technology grows, something new will be created. When the wallet you have is very old, we still won't get anything special, just like when you held Bitcoin in 2010 and sold it. In this year, the wallet is still a wallet whose only value is our assets.
As time goes by, technology may develop and some changes may happen. This is something unavoidable, we must adapt with the development. Sure, the old wallets aren't special if there are no valuable coins in the wallets. :D Well, I've some old wallets with Bitcoin, but I filled the wallets not very early as you. I'm a bit surprised you have bought Bitcoin and filled your wallets in 2010. You become one of the early investors if you have started holding Bitcoin in 2010.

Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Freemind on April 14, 2024, 09:41:17 AM
It's true, those who create articles just want to lure visitors to increase their website traffic. Bitcoin is still a technology that cannot be hacked easily, there are still many who are trying to try it but no one has succeeded. So I believe Bitcoin will be the security of the future.

The security of Bitcoin is something that has never worried me. As I said, if someday there was a technology capable of decrypting the algorithm, that same technology would be able to protect it. Everyone who has tried has failed, As we know, the security of Bitcoin depends on several factors, and vulnerabilities can always arise somewhere in the system, especially when new additions are implemented in the protocol, although as we already know the most common attacks are on exchanges or individual users, but not to the algorithm itself.

Does anyone believe that if SHA-256 could be hacked, the NSA (for example) wouldn't have done it already?. And before anyone asks, no, AI can't hack SHA-256 either. Let's use common sense.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: SmartGold01 on April 14, 2024, 09:57:07 AM
If I am not mistakenly I think have came across post like that either here or other forum where a total number of bitcoin address with their holdings were Sum up, okay.. How do we consider a lost bitcoin; To me any bitcoin that is stored inside a wallet for about 4 years to 15 years or above can be considered lost bitcoin because the wallet is dead and hence no transaction has been carried out for these numbers of years is considered lost. Maybe whenever I comes across that post again I will come here to edit and update my post.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Freemind on April 15, 2024, 03:53:56 PM
If I am not mistakenly I think have came across post like that either here or other forum where a total number of bitcoin address with their holdings were Sum up, okay.. How do we consider a lost bitcoin; To me any bitcoin that is stored inside a wallet for about 4 years to 15 years or above can be considered lost bitcoin because the wallet is dead and hence no transaction has been carried out for these numbers of years is considered lost. Maybe whenever I comes across that post again I will come here to edit and update my post.

Could you tell me what your reasoning is for choosing a time range of 4 to 15 years?. Is it for any specific reason or is it random?. I have wallets (not Bitcoin) with funds for 10 years and I have not moved a single coin/token, not because its value is 0, but because I have decided so, although I must also say that the value in $ is small. I think no one can define (unless the owner of that wallet says so publicly and can prove ownership) when funds in a wallet are lost or not.

I still think no one can define something like that just by looking at when the last outgoing transaction was, if there was one. I think trying to interpret something like that is a waste of time, and depending on who (I'm not saying it's you) it's just an excuse to try to extract the funds if possible.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: philipma1957 on April 15, 2024, 06:07:34 PM
It's true, those who create articles just want to lure visitors to increase their website traffic. Bitcoin is still a technology that cannot be hacked easily, there are still many who are trying to try it but no one has succeeded. So I believe Bitcoin will be the security of the future.

The security of Bitcoin is something that has never worried me. As I said, if someday there was a technology capable of decrypting the algorithm, that same technology would be able to protect it. Everyone who has tried has failed, As we know, the security of Bitcoin depends on several factors, and vulnerabilities can always arise somewhere in the system, especially when new additions are implemented in the protocol, although as we already know the most common attacks are on exchanges or individual users, but not to the algorithm itself.

Does anyone believe that if SHA-256 could be hacked, the NSA (for example) wouldn't have done it already?. And before anyone asks, no, AI can't hack SHA-256 either. Let's use common sense.

down the road a new harder to crack blockchain wallet may be needed.

this is why I feel the old frozen wallets may be transferred out of their stale easier to crack wallets.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: dkbit98 on April 15, 2024, 07:28:22 PM
For bitcoin wallets it can all get down to human mistakes, when they have weak seed word combination, passwords and passphrases.

Does anyone believe that if SHA-256 could be hacked, the NSA (for example) wouldn't have done it already?. And before anyone asks, no, AI can't hack SHA-256 either. Let's use common sense.
Not today, but just look back in history.
All encryptions get cracked at some point even the best ones, but nsa already have backdoor access for many encryptions, so they don't even need to crack them at all ;)
Exception is one encryption used for bitcoin, that makes you wonder if Satoshi had any connection with this agency when he made code for bitcoin.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Agbe on April 15, 2024, 09:20:40 PM
Base on misplacement of seed phrase, forgotten of passwords, and other negligence of the security details of different users in the cryptocurrency many bitcoins have lost and placed or hacked and every week people lost bitcoin either they sent it to a wrong address and others and with all those there is no accurate data for the total number of bitcoins that has lost in the space. Some people stored their bitcoins in a wallet that is not well secured so they also lost it from there and also in exchange which is not a good place to save or store coins. And I don't think anyone can give the accurate bitcoins that have been lost.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: SmartGold01 on April 15, 2024, 09:41:39 PM
If I am not mistakenly I think have came across post like that either here or other forum where a total number of bitcoin address with their holdings were Sum up, okay.. How do we consider a lost bitcoin; To me any bitcoin that is stored inside a wallet for about 4 years to 15 years or above can be considered lost bitcoin because the wallet is dead and hence no transaction has been carried out for these numbers of years is considered lost. Maybe whenever I comes across that post again I will come here to edit and update my post.

Could you tell me what your reasoning is for choosing a time range of 4 to 15 years?. Is it for any specific reason or is it random?. I have wallets (not Bitcoin) with funds for 10 years and I have not moved a single coin/token, not because its value is 0, but because I have decided so, although I must also say that the value in $ is small. I think no one can define (unless the owner of that wallet says so publicly and can prove ownership) when funds in a wallet are lost or not.

I still think no one can define something like that just by looking at when the last outgoing transaction was, if there was one. I think trying to interpret something like that is a waste of time, and depending on who (I'm not saying it's you) it's just an excuse to try to extract the funds if possible.
I could be wrong in my perspective but sometimes it's also the way we can use to judge if the wallet is dead, like we can easily view them since there is probability that if a wallet remain inactive then is either the owner lost complete access or wallet has been misplaced. Any wallet that has not perform transactions for long can be considered lost since the wallet is not making any more, now there are some wallet that needs regular updates and changes are being made over the time. That's just my own way of analyzing a lost Bitcoin.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: ABCbits on April 16, 2024, 12:57:36 PM
Does anyone believe that if SHA-256 could be hacked, the NSA (for example) wouldn't have done it already?. And before anyone asks, no, AI can't hack SHA-256 either. Let's use common sense.
Not today, but just look back in history.
All encryptions get cracked at some point even the best ones, but nsa already have backdoor access for many encryptions, so they don't even need to crack them at all ;)

Or require far less time to crack them ;).

Exception is one encryption used for bitcoin, that makes you wonder if Satoshi had any connection with this agency when he made code for bitcoin.

As reminder, Bitcoin doesn't use encryption cryptography, but rather hash and signature cryptography.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: dkbit98 on April 16, 2024, 11:45:17 PM
As reminder, Bitcoin doesn't use encryption cryptography, but rather hash and signature cryptography.
Cryptography is encryption by it's definition.
Satoshi used encryption public-private key encryption that was created as solution for double-spending problem.
That is why we can make trustless transaction without using third parties.

Quote
Encryption is a method of securing data by converting it into a code that can only be deciphered by someone with the correct key or password
https://www.bitcoinlearning.org/bitcoin-encryption/
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: EluguHcman on April 16, 2024, 11:55:43 PM
You are very correct. It is obvious that the ETF does not care about enhancing a more and solid security interfaces in the Bitcoin blocks.
All they cares most is channeling as much Bitcoins to themselves selfishly but meanwhile they are not concerned to align with the miners and the developers in other to frame better security outlets or maybe considering alternatively how those Investors who has lost their wallets assets could recover it.
I totally wonders where those claimed dormant Bitcoins in the enactive wallets goes?
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: UNIVERSE on April 17, 2024, 12:12:49 AM
Base on misplacement of seed phrase, forgotten of passwords, and other negligence of the security details of different users in the cryptocurrency many bitcoins have lost and placed or hacked and every week people lost bitcoin either they sent it to a wrong address and others and with all those there is no accurate data for the total number of bitcoins that has lost in the space. Some people stored their bitcoins in a wallet that is not well secured so they also lost it from there and also in exchange which is not a good place to save or store coins. And I don't think anyone can give the accurate bitcoins that have been lost.
This often happens, which is quite unfortunate, because sometimes, I personally am careless when it comes to storing some important assets or data. Moreover, the loss of data that is important to us is not only due to our carelessness which might happen to us but also due to other factors, such as unexpected things due to theft or natural disasters. But at least, if we can make some backups, this might help a little. But indeed, caution must be prioritized when we invest in crypto. It cannot be isolated, because after all, crypto is a digital product, and it will be very risky when we lay all things digitally only. For this reason, there are many tips and suggestions for us to store our assets in the form of hardware and offline, and for us to secure the data and devices truly safely and with a fairly strong backup.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: ABCbits on April 17, 2024, 10:54:01 AM
As reminder, Bitcoin doesn't use encryption cryptography, but rather hash and signature cryptography.
Cryptography is encryption by it's definition.
Satoshi used encryption public-private key encryption that was created as solution for double-spending problem.
That is why we can make trustless transaction without using third parties.

Quote
Encryption is a method of securing data by converting it into a code that can only be deciphered by someone with the correct key or password
https://www.bitcoinlearning.org/bitcoin-encryption/

That website is bad learning source. Here's somewhat better source for explaining difference between cryptography signature, hash and encryption in general, https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/dotnet/standard/security/cryptographic-services (https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/dotnet/standard/security/cryptographic-services).
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: Freemind on April 18, 2024, 09:00:54 PM
down the road a new harder to crack blockchain wallet may be needed.

this is why I feel the old frozen wallets may be transferred out of their stale easier to crack wallets.

It is possible that what you say happens, but it is something that I have already contemplated in my previous posts. When I say that technology (old and new) works in both directions, I mean precisely what you say about the new wallets. I know there is more computing power available every day to crack codes and algorithms, but that same computing power can be used to protect software, and make it more secure against new attacks and tools.

Bitcoin developers are aware of new advances, so I believe that when the time comes there will be new wallets with greater protection against these possible (and still distant) attacks. I don't think we should worry about AI or quantum computing when we talk about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. I think it would be better to worry about the security with which we take care of our wallets as users to avoid problems and possible theft of our funds.
Title: Re: Lost, Forgotten Bitcoin. How many are there?
Post by: LUCKMCFLY on April 18, 2024, 09:54:04 PM
This often happens, which is quite unfortunate, because sometimes, I personally am careless when it comes to storing some important assets or data. Moreover, the loss of data that is important to us is not only due to our carelessness which might happen to us but also due to other factors, such as unexpected things due to theft or natural disasters. But at least, if we can make some backups, this might help a little. But indeed, caution must be prioritized when we invest in crypto. It cannot be isolated, because after all, crypto is a digital product, and it will be very risky when we lay all things digitally only. For this reason, there are many tips and suggestions for us to store our assets in the form of hardware and offline, and for us to secure the data and devices truly safely and with a fairly strong backup.
Backups have worked a lot for me, in fact in 2017 When I started in this world of crypto, or what I did most was look for good crypto projects and I got to have many coins , when I started to see the taste for it one day My Altcoin wallet was Damaged , but I had Saved the file that I made and Backed up and this was enough for me to Recover my coins , I can't deny it, I was very scared, because the Truth is that it had cost me a lot of Effort to get some of these coins and I had bought too, but basically the things I did were too big for this , and from there I Started to see the backup copies and everything to save money with great care, in bitcoin things can also be like that, although I I kept Everything in various places pro sui perhaps something else would Fail.