This halving event will impact the price of BTC by big numbers, due to the high adoption rate, investors will invest millions of dollars due to the ETF approval but this increases the volatility of the BTC in the short term and not good for future traders. Anyway why I am caring about future traders, I don't do it and don't support it haha. I suggest those who practicing it, to avoid for sometime, unless they have a lot of funds.
The patterns you draw between the bull runs of each halving events tells us nothing but give us the hint that bull run does not start right after the halving event, it can take up to months or maybe more than a year. But this time I don't think it will take a year, market will start to gain consciousness again in the 2025's first quarter. MT gox selling and selling of BTC that US government has seized will dip the market but that will bring more funds into the BTC and after the halving such steps will increases its price in the long run.