StormGain is a crypto trading platform for everyone.

[stormgain]

Bitcoin inflow to crypto exchanges hits 10-year low

While some analysts are predicting that Bitcoin will drop to $40,000 per coin and others are talking about the end of the bull cycle after hitting a new all-time high, network metrics are showing growing pressure from the demand side.

The current cycle is diverging from how things usually go since a new all-time-high price was set before the halving event. This was due to a significant influx of capital as a result of spot Bitcoin ETFs being allowed to go to market in the United States. In the past three weeks, inflows have given way to outflows, confirming the hypothesis about the end of the momentum and a potential reversal.



ETFs have been a strong mover in 2024, but they're far from the only one. Hodlers' sentiment and market participants' long-term assessments continue to play a leading role. One key metric is the inflow of Bitcoin onto crypto exchanges. The more people there are who want to exchange BTC for stable coins or fiat currency, the greater the influx is.

At the end of April, this figure fell below 10,000 BTC per day, hitting a 10-year low.



The high interest in savings is also indicated by the continued rapid influx of coins to savings addresses. These include addresses where two or more incoming transactions have been recorded and where there is no outflow of funds.



The overall picture is spoiled by a decrease in the share of coins that have remained idle for more than a year. That figure has dropped from 70.8% at the end of November to the current level of 65.8%. However, it must be kept in mind that nearly half of this trend was provided by the conversion of the Grayscale trust fund into a spot ETF. Some investors rushed to take profits, while others transferred their investments to similar ETFs with lower management fees.

Since it converted to a spot ETF, this fund has more than halved to 292,000 BTC.



If we talk about time intervals and expectations for setting new all-time highs, the post-halving price rise lasts from 350 to 500 days.



Moreover, in the first two months, there has always been a consolidation with minor price fluctuations.



Only about 20 days have passed since the halving event took place, so it's too early to summarise the new cycle's results, and investors should be patient.


StormGain Analytical Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

[stormgain]

Miners' record profits aren't a reason to buy their stocks

Q1 2024 was phenomenal in terms of many publicly traded miners' profitability. Riot Platforms put up a record-high net profit of $211.8 million, with 249% growth compared to the previous quarter.


Image source: tradingview.com

Marathon Digital, which rose to number one in terms of capacity among publicly traded miners last year, was officially included in the S&P SmallCap 600 index yesterday. This index tracks companies with a market capitalisation between $1 billion and $7 billion. Marathon became the first among its peers to receive this honour. Its capitalisation reached $5.5 billion, while net profit in Q1 2024 was around $200 million.


Image source: companiesmarketcap.com

At the same time, the pace of the arms race remains high, and competition is becoming tougher. Riot plans to nearly treble its computing power this year to 31.5 EH/s and to reach 100 EH/s by 2027.


Image source: riotplatforms.com

Firstly, miners' optimism is associated with Bitcoin's movement. Most of them are baking in an increase for BTC's value to $100,000-$150,000 in their forecast calculations for the next two years.


Image source: cryptocurrency exchange StormGain

Secondly, miners are pinning high hopes on the network, seeing the spread of by-products, such as ordinals and runes, whose hype in April led to an explosive increase in commission payments. On the day of halving, the income from filling blocks was over three times higher than the income from mining the currency, setting a new all-time record.


Image source: hashrateindex.com

After the halving, however, the price stalled, and interest in quasi-tokens faded. Network fees have returned to minimum levels, depriving miners of a promising source of income.


Image source: dune.com

Halving deprived miners of half of the income received for mining a block. Since the new reality was too harsh for some miners, some equipment was turned off. The network hashrate decreased from a record-high 691 EH/s to the current level of 582 EH/s.

The reduction in overall computing power will lead to the highest adjustment in difficulty since December 2022, with a decline of approximately 5.2% today.


Image source: btc.com

Q1 2024 was successful for miners primarily due to the emergence of spot ETFs, which caused Bitcoin's price to rise by 66% during the reporting period. However, Q2 may become a trying period due to the significant decline in revenues.

Mining companies are now reporting record profits, and their stocks are soaring on the news. Nevertheless, now is not the best time to invest in the crypto-mining industry.


StormGain Analytical Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

[stormgain]

Factors for Ethereum's fall in May

For the third year in a row now, Ethereum has been outpaced by Bitcoin. This year alone, it's dropped by 13% compared to the original cryptocurrency. Two important factors point to this trend strengthening in May.


Image source: cryptocurrency exchange StormGain

Shattered hopes

The main catalyst for Bitcoin's rise this year has been the emergence of spot ETFs in the US, which have attracted $11.7 billion in investment in five months of operation.


Image source: farside.co.uk

Ethereum investors are counting on Ethereum experiencing a similar takeoff when the deadline for a decision to be taken on VanEck's application to launch a spot Ethereum ETF approaches on 23 May.


Image source: twitter.com/JSeyff

If the SEC wants to refuse it, it will have to find a compelling argument. Otherwise, the very first judicial objection will put the regulator in an awkward position, which is what happened with Grayscale’s application last year.

Since the staking programme is one of the stumbling blocks, Ark Invest and 21Shares recently introduced an amendment to exclude this option for ETF investors. Most experts, however, agree that this won't help.

The SEC was extremely negative towards Ethereum after the cryptocurrency transitioned to the Proof-of-Staking (PoS) algorithm, which SEC Chairman Gary Gensler notified the public about on the same day. In his opinion, the altcoin should be considered a security rather than a commodity like Bitcoin. This places a completely different level of demands on both ETF managers and investors.

One indirect sign that the SEC will reject the application in May is the lack of negotiations with the applicants. Before Bitcoin ETFs launched, the regulator's representatives met with potential managers several times a week for a month and a half.

If the SEC rejects the application, it would serve as grounds for a sell-off of Ethereum since some investors are disappointed in its prospects.

Inflation

Ethereum became deflationary after the London hard fork and the inclusion of a mechanism to burn part of the reward. In other words, the number of coins destroyed began to exceed the number of new ones issued. All other things equal, this would be a reason for the price of any asset to go up. The effect intensified after the transition to PoS.

However, the staking craze and low network activity led to the undesirable result of inflation taking place again. In the past month, this indicator has stood at 0.4%.


Image source: ultrasound.money

The number of active validators (who must be paid a reward) is now over 1 million, which is more than enough to ensure the network's security and functionality. A further influx will only cause congestion due to the growth of technical messages.


Image source: validatorqueue.com

The algorithm for reducing profitability based on the number of validators turned out not to be flexible enough, which is why developers are considering the option of forcing a reduction in the reward.

At the same time, network activity, which led to increased coin burning, fell due to a shift in interest to L2 and L3 networks. Simply put, users began to spend more time in Base or Arbitrum, from which transactions in Ethereum are received in a compressed form.


Image source: l2beat.com

Since the mentioned trends are gaining momentum, it's likely that inflation in Ethereum is here to stay for a long time. It will have a long-term negative effect on the cryptocurrency's value, and coupled with the SEC’s refusal, it will lead to Ethereum pulling further apart from Bitcoin.


StormGain Analytical Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

[stormgain]

Record outflows from Hong Kong ETFs

The last major event to move Bitcoin's price was the launch of spot ETFs in Hong Kong in early May. The ETF market's small market capitalisation of $50 billion (versus $9 trillion in the US) has been offset by rumours of an imminent connection to the Stock Connect system, which will open up access to mainland Chinese investors.

The hopes were false, though. The Hong Kong stock exchange denied the rumours. On 13 May, Chinese Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest outflow, $32.7 million.



US ETFs don't look much better. After a month-long sell-off, they returned to regular inflows, closing the last week at $286 million.



Despite that, Bitcoin is performing well enough and hasn't fallen into a full-blown correction. The maximum drawdown from the record high is only 23%. In previous bull cycles, it ranged from 36% to 71%.



One key factor for the price's stabilisation is institutionalisation. Bitcoin sees less price turbulence because it's recognised and incorporated into the traditional financial system via the same ETFs. In the past, large US investors overlooked the asset because of the risk that companies would suddenly ban cryptocurrency transactions like what happened in China. However, these companies are now increasingly looking to invest in it.

Even JPMorgan, whose head called Bitcoin a fraud and a worthless asset, declared to the SEC on 10 May that it purchased shares in spot Bitcoin funds worth a total of $760,000. Compared to the bank's total amount of assets under management, the purchase size is modest, but the start of cryptocurrency investments has now taken place.

With inflows into spot ETFs slowing considerably and exchange-traded activity already down 43.8% in April (compared to March), macroeconomic factors are coming to the fore.



The focus this week will be on data from the US. The Fed previously planned to cut its key rate in June. However, the jump in inflation to 3.5% in March forced the regulator to reconsider when it would begin cutting rates.



The data for April may have a surprise in store. If inflation declines significantly, the chances of a monetary policy reversal in the summer will increase significantly. This, in turn, will be grounds for risky assets, including Bitcoin, to strengthen. The indicator will be released on 15 May.


StormGain Analytics Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(an all-in-one cryptocurrency platform)

[stormgain]

FTX clients unhappy with upcoming 118% bankruptcy payouts

In November 2022, FTX, the third-largest crypto exchange, collapsed as a result of diverting customers' funds to its affiliate company, Alameda Research. Funds from the company it controlled were spent on political donations, purchasing luxury real estate and unwise investments. Each year, the hole got bigger and bigger, reaching $10 billion in 2022.



The debt was masked by issuing more of the FTT token, which was listed on Alameda's balance sheet as an asset and as collateral for loans issued to third parties. On 2 November, Coindesk published an article that triggered a massive outflow of client funds and a liquidity crisis at Sam Bankman-Fried's empire.

On 11 November, FTX declared bankruptcy, leaving over 2 million customers high and dry. The liquidation committee's first valuation showed that the total cryptocurrency held in all controlled accounts was worth only $3.3 billion, while the company had liabilities of $8 billion to customers.



The first compensation announcement presupposed a payout to customers of just 10 cents on the dollar. However, as the values of assets have risen and the commission has succeeded in finding all the cryptocurrency wallets controlled by the company, the expected payout for most customers has risen to 118 cents on the dollar.



It's very rare for global jurisprudence to see clients recover more money than they had in their accounts as a result of a private company's bankruptcy. However, not all customers were happy with this result.

The reason for this is that payments are scheduled in US dollars, according to how things were on the day of the bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the value of Solana, which formed the backbone of assets held by FTX, has risen nine-fold to $162 during this period. Bitcoin's price, meanwhile, has quadrupled to $66,000.



Bloomberg reports that more than 80 petitions have been filed with the bankruptcy court by dissenting customers who want their cryptocurrency funds back. FTX's CEO, John Ray, responded to this by saying that he had the best interests of the majority of customers in mind. The cryptocurrency assets, on the other hand, are simply not enough to meet all requests in full.

In June, customers will be able to vote on the proposed reimbursement plan. If the majority favours a cryptocurrency payout, the judge may reject the bankruptcy commission's proposal and send it back for further review. If the majority of clients are satisfied with a payout in US dollars, they will receive the funds throughout 2024.


StormGain Analytical Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

[stormgain]

Why Bitcoin's price will rise $150,000

We're witnessing a revolution in the financial industry, with professional market participants and regulators recognising decentralised cryptocurrency as an investment asset and a former US president including cryptocurrencies in his election platform.

One clear indication of the recognition is the rise in Bitcoin ownership by licensed exchange-traded funds. Today, their combined holdings exceed 1 million coins or $68 billion. That's 5% of the total circulating supply of 19.7 million BTC.


Image source: StormGain infographic

Canada, Germany, Switzerland, Brazil, China (Hong Kong), Australia and others are among the countries that have launched crypto funds. The US leads the way with an 85% share, where spot ETFs that have emerged this year have attracted $13.7 billion in investments. One-third of this amount was provided by large institutional investors, whose assets under management start from $100 million.


Image source: farside.co.uk

In the past three weeks, US funds have seen a return to pure accumulation, gathering $2.1 billion in investments.


Image source: StormGain infographic

Notably, BlackRock's fund will soon overtake Grayscale, which has been in operation since 2013 and converted from a trust to a spot fund. Grayscale is experiencing outflows for a number of reasons, totalling $17.7 billion this year. Its velocity is weakening, which will further favour the overall ETF statistics.


Image source: x.com/HODL15Capital

Analysts at Bernstein suggest that cryptocurrency funds will see an inflow of $100 billion over the next two years. Significant demand pressure will see Bitcoin's price rise to $150,000 as soon as next year.


Image source: cryptocurrency exchange StormGain

The growing acceptance of Bitcoin is evident in the interest from professional market participants and the changing political agenda. In May, the US Congress approved the FIT21 digital asset bill, which was opposed by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and President Joe Biden. But it'll be hard for the president to veto since his election opponent Trump has made supporting crypto innovation one of the planks of his campaign platform.

Recent polls in the US have shown that 48% of cryptocurrency-owning voters would support Trump, while only 39% would vote for Biden. Although Trump had a negative view of cryptocurrencies in the previous election race, they've taken a key spot among his positions, posting in recent days:

"Crooked Joe Biden, on the other hand, the worst president in the history of our country, wants IT to die a slow and painful death. That will never happen with me!"


StormGain Analytical Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

[stormgain]

Ethereum is losing influence in the stablecoin market

Many have high hopes for Ethereum in response to the launch of spot ETFs, but the list of the network's internal problems continues to grow. In addition to increased centralisation, excessive MEV influence, high fees and excessive validators, the network is now seeing lower practical use.

One of the key uses of smart contract-enabled blockchains is for stablecoin transactions. At first glance, Ethereum is doing well since the network's stablecoin capitalisation increased by 17.8% to $80 billion in 2024.


Image source: defillama.com

However, at the same time, the segment's total capitalisation jumped 23.1%, while Ethereum's price jumped 65.4%. In fact, the network is losing the weight of its share, especially in terms of ETH.


Image source: cryptocurrency exchange StormGain

Two trends led to this. In terms of Tether (USDT), interest shifted to Tron. For Circle (USDC), interest shifted to Solana. These networks beat Ethereum in terms of fees and transaction speed but are inferior in security and uptime. The latter applies more to Solana.


Image source: defillama.com

However, over time, more and more projects are turning a blind eye to technical risks in favour of low fees. The other day, PayPal announced the upcoming minting of the PYUSD stablecoin on Solana. The same coin debuted a year ago on Ethereum. This is another breakthrough for PayPal after it launched an interbank exchange pilot project with Visa.


Image source: defillama.com

Ethereum's decreasing relevance as a stablecoin operator led to a decline in its share of the relevant segment, going from 62% to 50% in a year and a half.


Image source: defillama.com

Competition is growing, and Ethereum's developers aren't managing to resolve old problems before new ones pile up. If the trends continue, it will be increasingly difficult for the altcoin to maintain its leadership and move the way investors would like to see it move every year.

The only caveat to the conclusion is the development of Layer-2 (L2) networks, which conduct fast and cheap transactions, with Ethereum (L1) used as a security guarantor.


Image source: defillama.com

For example, Base's share of USDC's capitalisation has risen from 0.6% to 9.5% over the past five months, pushing Solana into third place. However, in this case, Ethereum's relevance becomes dependent on the success and loyalty of third-party projects.


StormGain Analytical Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

[stormgain]

The risks of staking the fastest-growing stablecoin in history

The market capitalisation of the new algorithmic stablecoin USDe has grown from $5 million to $3 billion — a 600-fold increase — in six months. In terms of pace, it overtook the Hong Kong FDUSD, which initially secured zero commissions in Binance, and the infamous UST from the Terra project (LUNA). Some users are sounding the alarm just because of the similarities between USDe and UST.


Image source: defillama.com

Apart from the lack of provision for reserves (excluding the nominal compensation fund), the similarity of the projects lies in the high staking fees. For UST, the fee is 20% annualised. For USDe, that number is over 35% on some platforms.


Image source: app.ethena.fi

Here's how it works. A user deposits Ethereum, Bitcoin, USDT or LST tokens (e.g. LIDO) and receives USDe in return. The user can then lock this stablecoin in a smart contract to get the above-mentioned yield.


Image source: app.ethena.fi

Rewards are generated by staking coins that were originally deposited and from arbitrage transactions conducted by the platform when 1 ETH is bought on the spot market and 1 ETH is opened for sale on the futures market. The net position turns out to be neutral, but when buyers prevail (in a bullish phase), a premium is paid to sellers, which is called the funding rate.

Accordingly, the more intensely the price and optimism rise, the higher the preponderance of buyers is and the bigger the reward is.


Image source: coinglass.com

The market is currently booming, and USDe is attracting users with high yields. So, why is the project being compared to the collapsed UST, which had a capitalisation of $20 billion at its peak?


Image source: cryptocurrency exchange StormGain

The reason is the algorithmic nature and lack of rigid scripts for all cases. USDe's sustainability is based on the appeal of staking due to high yields. However, it will only remain stable when prices are rising. Once we move into a bearish phase, short arbitrage positions will become unprofitable. If users start getting rid of USDe en masse, the balancing mechanism could fail, the stablecoin exchange rate would sag, and panic would end its history.


Image source: coinmarketcap.com

However, Ethena founder Guy Young believes this is nothing to worry about.

"If necessary, we will change our strategy to generate income in a bear market".

The second Achilles' heel is the high dependence on platforms where collateral assets are held. On 15 April, Ethena Labs reported $1.3 billion sitting in Copper, $1.1 billion in Ceffu and $0.5 billion in Cobo. A successful hacker attack on any of them would risk USDe's collapse for holders.

These are the two most negative scenarios that may not materialise at all. At the same time, as its capitalisation increases, yields will still decline, even under favourable conditions, which will naturally reduce the project's appeal and limit its growth. For example, the yield from Ethereum staking falls due to the increase of locked ETH. The yield from arbitrage falls when an equilibrium between buyers and sellers is achieved.


StormGain Analytical Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

[stormgain]

Bitcoin is leaking from cryptocurrency exchanges

After setting a new price high in mid-March, Bitcoin went into a prolonged consolidation. During this time, cryptocurrency exchanges' combined BTC balance decreased by 5% to 2.85 million. The decrease is primarily due to withdrawals to cold wallets, which demonstrates traders' anticipation of Bitcoin's price increasing further.


Image source: cryptoquant.com

Young whales showed significant accumulation, adding $1 billion to their wallets every day. The head of the analytics firm CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, notes the high similarity in their behaviour to 2020.


Image source: x.com/ki_young_ju

Back then, the consolidation phase around the price point of $10,000 lasted for about half a year. After that, the price increased 2.5-fold in three months.


Image source: cryptocurrency exchange StormGain

Large institutional investors from the US are some of the prominent young whales. 13F reporting showed that one-third of all capital inflows into spot ETFs in Q1 2024, which amounted to $4 billion, came from companies with more than $100 million in assets under management (AUM).

US ETFs continue to grow and now have a value of $14.1 billion.


Image source: StormGain infographic

But the big players are just starting to whet their appetites. For example, Marquette University finance professor David Krause believes the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (with an AUM of $156 billion) is currently pricing in public opinion after buying $150 million in shares of BlackRock and Fidelity funds in Q1. If the response is favourable, Krause is confident that investments in cryptocurrency will increase and that the other pension funds will follow Wisconsin's example.

Institutional capital's interest in cryptocurrency and the renewed outflow of coins to cold wallets are creating favourable territory for Bitcoin's continued growth. The closest event that has the potential to be a catalyst is Franklin Templeton's spot ETH ETF application. The final decision on whether to approve it is due on 11 June 2024.


StormGain Analytical Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

[stormgain]

FDIC: US banks' unrealised losses rose to $517 billion

The US banking sector remains depressed after monetary tightening in 2022. This is clearly evident in the significant increase in unrealised losses, which stood at $517 billion in Q1 2024.


Image source: fdic.gov

Due to tighter credit conditions and lower yields on a number of assets, the net interest margin fell to 3.17%, down from a pre-crisis average of 3.25%.


Image source: fdic.gov

A prime example of the impact of a high key rate was the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) last year. Treasury bonds on the balance sheet (about $100 billion at the time) lost a lot of value after the regulator's action. The need to sell to settle deposits resulted in significant losses, news of which increased panic and deposit outflows.

SVB failed and filed for bankruptcy. In response, the Fed announced special terms for banks, allowing them to sell bonds to the regulator at the purchase price rather than the market price. The regulator has also launched an emergency credit line for the sector. Total loans disbursed for the year exceeded $150 billion. The programme was wound down on 11 March.


Image source: bloomberg.com

When three banks in a row failed last spring, and First Republic had to be rescued by government intervention and a consortium of banks (it still went bust a year later), Bitcoin experienced a significant influx of investment. Its independence from financial institutions and decentralisation were once again in demand.


Image source: StormGain Cryptocurrency Exchange

The situation may repeat itself in the near future as the banking sector continues to struggle. According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the number of troubled banks rose from 52 to 63 in the last quarter and their total assets increased by $15.8 billion to $82.1 billion.

Lending, which is one of the main sources of income, is showing a slowdown. Meanwhile, the real estate sector, which is the leading sector for the banking industry, is signalling an impending crisis. In particular, a significant decline in the number of new housing starts compared to completions is being seen. The last time this happened was before a large-scale recession.


Image source: zerohedge.com

All of this will lead to a drop in banks' operating profit in the near future. With a high key interest rate, new shocks and a string of bankruptcies are likely to occur.


StormGain Analytical Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

[stormgain]

Bitcoin Network Reaches Third Place in Digital Object Sales

Just 18 months after Casey Rodarmor unveiled the Ordinal protocol, the Bitcoin network already ranks third in terms of digital object sales, coming in at $4.3 billion. Digital objects include graphic images, audio, video and other files, as well as quasi-tokens.


Image source: cryptoslam.io

Among the great variety of tokens, quasi-tokens are the most popular ones. At first, standard BRC-20 coins were in the lead. After Bitcoin's halving event, they were eclipsed by Runes. The essence, however, is the same: 99.9% of the group is represented by meme coins, and their minting and exchange are driven by speculative sentiment.


Image source: dune.com

If we talk about NFT collections that are popular on the Bitcoin network, the first place goes to NodeMonkes with trade volume of $238 million. In comparison, the Ethereum network's top collection with monkeys is Bored Ape Yacht Club, which sees $3.2 billion in volume.


Image source: coingecko.com

Bitcoin reached third place in terms of trading volume among blockchains quickly enough, but further expansion will be difficult. The reason for this is low. As soon as the hype around digital artefacts starts to grow, commission costs creep up.

Record interest in quasi-tokens was shown on 20 April, as the Runes protocol was launched at the same time as the Bitcoin halving event took place. Runes took up 73.5% of all transactions that day, and the network's average commission jumped to a record $128.


Image source: dune.com

There is no direct impact on Bitcon's value from circulating digital artefacts.


Image source: cryptocurrency exchange StormGain

For this reason, many users have a negative view of quasi-tokens, which cause an increase in costs without carrying a payload.


Image source: blockchain.com

The opposite view is held by miners, who generated a record $108 million in revenue on 20 April (in spite of the halving of the reward per block mined).


StormGain Analytics Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(a platform to trade, exchange and store cryptocurrency)

[stormgain]

Why Is Crypto on the Rise: Navigating Crypto Market Trends

The crypto market has seen rises and falls recently. Despite facing challenges in 2023, primarily caused by global economic conditions, the market has bounded back strongly, with most of the top-traded crypto assets demonstrating bearish trends since the beginning of 2024. The crypto market fluctuations make many investors wonder, "What causes crypto to rise and fall?" While inflation is hardly the reason for the crypto price increase, macroeconomic factors significantly impact the slump. Other factors like Bitcoin ETF approval and Bitcoin halving significantly impact the crypto market trends.

Events shaping crypto market trends

We've witnessed several major events causing cryptocurrency growth. Analysing historical crypto market trends and price movements is crucial for traders and investors shaping their cryptocurrency portfolios. However, past performance or projections are not reliable indicators of future outcomes.

The initial crypto rally began with Bitcoin's use for transactions on Silk Road, a pioneering dark web marketplace. Early adopters' use of Bitcoin ignited the creation of other digital currencies, exchange platforms, and wallets, eventually leading to Bitcoin reaching a $1 billion market cap.

A pivotal moment in crypto history was Vitalik Buterin's development of Ethereum, which facilitated the rise of altcoins and diversified the digital asset market. This innovation led to the proliferation of initial coin offerings (ICOs) and various digital assets with multiple applications.

The global market cap of crypto-assets is $1.14 trillion, with over 100,000 different assets. These include categories like gaming (play-to-earn), move-to-earn, climate initiatives (carbon credit tokens), the Metaverse (e.g., SAND), NFTs, and Stablecoins.‍

What causes crypto to rise?

Many factors alter cryptocurrencies' growth and decline in the short and long term. By analysing the crypto assets price charts over the past decade, you will determine the major events shaping the cryptocurrency growth trajectory. Explore several of the major factors causing crypto on the rise below.

New Technologies

If we look back at the roots of the cryptocurrency market, we will remember how everything started. In 2009, cryptography research at Bell Labs developed blockchain technology to ensure data integrity over a trustless network. Technological innovation led to the creation of Bitcoin, which started a new era in digital finance.

Between 2014 and 2016, Bitcoin adoption and the introduction of smart contracts by Vitalik Buterin drove the market from $5 billion to over $500 billion. The subsequent ICO boom, fuelled by smart contract applications and boutique token offerings, pushed the market past the trillion-dollar mark. Smart contracts allowed new projects to quickly launch tokens via ICOs, while centralised exchanges like One Trading performed due diligence before listing tokens in initial exchange offerings (IEOs) to protect customers and minimise risks.

Advancements in blockchain technology have since led to the rise of decentralised applications (dApps) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). While technological developments can drive market growth, it's crucial to consider the role of external influences, such as media, in shaping market dynamics.

All these new technologies have boosted the popularity of cryptocurrency and the adoption of digital assets in everyday life. ‍

Market sentiments

There is no doubt that cryptocurrency is one of the most volatile markets we've ever seen. It's traditionally characterised by low liquidity and minimal regulatory control. However, the latter is gradually changing as governments and institutions get involved. How the crypto market reacts to such events can be compared to how the stock market reacts to tabloid rumours. It makes the crypto prices sensitive, bringing crypto on the rise as a reflection of market sentiment and speculation.

A vivid example of market sentiments causing cryptocurrencies' growth is the 2017 boom when the market reached new heights due to speculative excitement and an influx of new investors. This resulted in crypto prices increasing to new heights, but they crashed significantly in 2018. The crypto rally perfectly demonstrates how sentiment can drive short-term trends.

The Terra Luna crash is another key event triggered by a loss of confidence in TerraUSD (UST) and its payment system, partly influenced by Binance's stance on the Terra stable peg token. This crash, the largest bearish trend in the crypto market by volume, highlights the risks of algorithmically pegged stablecoins like TerraUSD, which adjust their supply to maintain their price. The crash led to widespread scepticism about these types of stablecoins.

‍Bitcoin halving

Bitcoin halving is a deflationary measure written in Bitcoin's algorithm. It occurs once every four years and is characterised by reducing the block reward by half. The event has a major impact on shaping crypto market trends. By analysing the crypto market movements following every Bitcoin halving, it's easy to notice the price surge of BTC itself and many other big players in the digital assets world. ‍

Regulatory environment

Since the first cryptocurrency was introduced, regulators have tried to keep up with blockchain technology and create rules for digital assets. For example, the Chinese government's 2013 legalisation of crypto assets and Bitcoin resulted in increased investment and adoption of cryptocurrency in China. It resulted in a bullish trend in 2013 and the Mt. Gox exchange hack.

In 2016, institutional funds started flowing into the market after the New York State Department of Financial Services (NY DFS) released the BitLicense document. This helped drive a bullish trend from 2016 to 2017, but it crashed in 2018 when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigated ICOs.

Long-term vs Short-term market trends

For crypto investors, understanding price trends involves considering the timeframe, which determines their investment decision and defines the duration of holding funds. The significance of the timeframe and making trading decisions is specified by the distinctions in the following crypto market trends, namely short-term and long-term price trends.

Long-term price trends often span months, quarters, and years. Fundamental factors such as technological innovations, macroeconomic events, adoption rates, etc., influence them. Hodlers (crypto holders opting for the long-term perspective of holding crypto assets) consider the long-term view of crypto asset prices by considering monthly to yearly views on the price chart.
Market events, industry news, and trading activities often shape short-term crypto price trends. Such trends are especially handy for investors seeking to capitalise on cryptocurrency investments within a short time frame, often days to weeks. The 2017 crypto boom is a vivid example of how investors capitalised on short-term crypto price trends.

5 most popular cryptocurrencies performance

As we discuss why crypto is increasing today, this blog post should include a list of the top-performing digital assets in the modern market. All assets we list below are available for trading on StormGain (https://stormgain.com/), giving you leverage up to x300.

- Bitcoin (BTC) is the undisputable leader in the crypto world. The asset's widespread adoption makes it the perfect choice for investors seeking an asset to capitalise on in the long-term timeframe.
- Ethereum (ETH), following Bitcoin, remains the second leading crypto by market capitalisation. The digital asset's price remains relatively stable, lacking any whopping fluctuations. Ethereum remains the industry leader in the development of dApps and smart contracts.
- USDT (Tether USD) is the leading stablecoin. With some insignificant price fluctuations, it remains the top choice for traders and investors looking for a solution to preserve capital in cryptocurrency.
- Binance Coin (BNB) coin's utility in the Binance exchange ecosystem contributes to its popularity in the crypto market. Being the fourth leading crypto coin by its market cap, BNB has experienced a minor price decline recently. However, the general crypto price sentiment remains bullish.

What does the future hold?

Considering crypto charts, it's easy to see that crypto is on the rise today. Looking ahead, the crypto market shows strong signs of growth and opportunities. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continue to lead the pack, and investors are optimistic about the market's future.

The recent rise in cryptocurrency prices and positive news, such as the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs and Bitcoin's fourth halving, have fuelled expectations for more gains.

It's important to remember the market's volatility. Past events, like the dramatic price swings in 2021, highlight the risks of crypto investments. Investors should approach the market carefully, diversify their portfolios, and use smart risk management strategies to handle potential fluctuations.

While the crypto market's future looks promising, staying informed, adaptable, and cautious is essential for making sound investment decisions.

[stormgain]

Hamster Kombat Coin Price Prediction: How to Qualify for Airdrop

Have you already joined the community of CEOs in the Hamster Kombat social clicking Telegram game? If not, you still have time before the Hamster Kombat airdrop announcement. While many rumours and discussions surround the strategic gameplay, it's already clear that the Hamster Kombat coin will be launched on the TON network.

There's been much talk recently about the demand for Telegram coins. Hamster Kombat joins the squad. However, what will the Hamster Kombat price be? What is the Hamster Kombat coin launch date and listing date? This article lifts the veil of mystery about the upcoming Hamster Kombat airdrop, listing date, and Hamster crypto price prediction. Let's dive in!

What Is Hamster Combat?



Hamster Kombat is a popular Telegram-based tapping game, resembling its predecessor - the Notcoin clicker game. In Hamster Kombat, every participant plays the CEO of a fictional crypto exchange, where you need to complete 10 levels of the game to boost your startup to the top of the industry. The Hamster Kombat Telegram game represents a perfect mix of fun and strategy, where you earn virtual coins by inviting friends, completing various tasks, joining the Hamster Telegram community, mining, boating energy, etc. The anticipated Hamster Kombat coin launch and airdrop on the TON networks adds an extra layer of excitement to the players.

The Hamster Kombat coin (HMSTR) is the native token of the Hamster Kombat Telegram game. The listing date is scheduled for June 2024, and the airdrop is announced for July 2024.

How does the Hamster Kombat bot work?



Let's make it clear - Hamster Kombat is a Telegram bot. By launching it, you become the CEO of your virtual crypto exchange, where you can earn Hamster Kombat coins (HMSTR) by completing quests, inviting friends, mining, and earning more coins by completing multiple tasks the bot suggests you with.

When you launch the Hamster Kombat bot, you'll be prompted to select an exchange that will earn passive income based on your mining activity in the game. Within the game, you are given a limit of energy for collecting coins while tapping on your gadget's display. The energy is renewable and can be manually adjusted.

The Hamster Kombat Telegram game provides 10 levels for your hamster. You must earn a specific amount of coins to proceed to the next level. The more coins you earn by tapping on the screen or through mining, the faster you proceed.

Hamster Kombat's daily combo is one of the game's peculiar features. Once you find the combination of three cards in your exchange, you are rewarded with 5 million in-game Hamster coins. You need to buy or upgrade those cards to earn the reward. The combination changes once every 24 hours, allowing you to earn 5 million coins daily.

Hamster Combat crypto roadmap



The Hamster Kombat team announced that the token's launch on The Open Network (TON) is scheduled for July. As part of this highly anticipated event, the community will receive Hamster tokens as a gift in honour of the game's listing on the market. The goal of the airdrop is to increase Toncoin usage and significantly increase the number of users and transaction volume in the TON ecosystem.

To kick off the airdrop campaign, Hamster Kombat introduced the first challenge on 8 June 2024, which requires players to link their TON wallets to the game. Completing this challenge will allow players to participate in the airdrop when the Hamster Kombat token launches in July. Players can also join the Hamster Kombat Telegram channel to stay updated on new missions as they become available.

Is it possible to make money with the Hamster Kombat Airdrop?

We already know that Notcoin was successfully listed, and active users managed to make a profit. Can we expect the same from Hamster Kombat airdrop? Let's figure it out.

There are certain rumours surrounding the Telegram-based tapping game. Sooner or later, the listing of $HMSTR will take place. But how much can you win and earn more with the game?

- Firstly, the Hamster Kombat airdrop will not depend on your balance (like in Notcoin) but on the level of your account and passive income. So there is no point in saving up coins - you have extra coins, so upgrade your account immediately.
- Secondly, according to rumours, the crypto will not be issued to players immediately but over two years. The logic is clear: the price after a possible listing will not immediately fall. In two years, there may be no one left. There will only be "whales" left who will gradually buy up all your "hard-earned money" for next to nothing.
- Thirdly, we don't know anything about the developers of Hamster Kombat. If the Notcoin team was already famous before the launch of the clicker and distinguished itself with several successful projects, then will the creators of Hamster cope with the mountain of complex tasks that will confront them?

Hamster Kombat coin price prediction

In mid-June 2024, the current HMSTR price is $0.00008289, with a market cap of around $82.9 million.

The Hamster Kombat Coin price prediction suggests a short-term target of $0.05 to $0.10 per token within the next 3-6 months, with a potential mid-term price of $0.55 per token in 6-12 months.

The project claims to have a large user base of 148 million users and 40 million daily active players, with a strong presence on Telegram. While there are no specific long-term price predictions, the project is actively developing and expanding its ecosystem.

Start trading HMSTR/USDT with StormGain!

The Hamster Kombat token has been added to StormGain, where you can trade HMSTR / USDT with 300x leverage. Whether you choose the web app or mobile app for trading, we let you use a $50,000 demo account and trading signals to monetise your investments.

We employ industry-leading security measures, like 2FA, SSL encryption, and multi-signature wallets, to protect your funds. Trading with StormGain is always an enjoyable experience due to our app's user-friendly interface, trading tools, and features that are accessible on the go.

Check out all the advantages of trading HMSTR / USDT with StormGain today (https://stormgain.com/), especially if you haven't tried it yet!

[stormgain]

Less than a week to go before the potential approval of spot Ethereum ETFs

On 25 June, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler noted that the registration process for the new ETFs is "going smoothly" and that the approval date depends on the speed at which applicants file amended S-1 forms. Based on the regulator's sudden show of loyalty, Bloomberg analysts have confirmed 2 July as the expected approval date for the new products. Citing anonymous sources, Reuters reports that a consensus has been reached between the receivers and the SEC in negotiations, and only the "finishing touches" remain to be done.


Image source: x.com/EricBalchunas

Open interest in Ethereum futures stands at $14.6 billion and is near the record high of $16.5 billion, which was reached on 28 May. At the same time, the financing rate remains in the neutral zone, indicating mixed expectations of the participants.


Image source: coinglass.com

The emergence of the long-awaited exchange product is certainly a positive factor. Bitwise's IT director, Matt Hougan, expects net inflows of $15 billion to go into the ETFs in the first 18 months.

In his analysis, he draws on the experience of Canada and the EU, where the inflow into Bitcoin for similar products is roughly 4 times greater than it is for Ethereum. In other words, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw total inflows of $26.9 billion in the first quarter, Ethereum is expected to see inflows of $6.7 billion. In this case, Ethereum's price will rise to $4400-5000 in the first three months of the funds' operation.


Image source: cryptocurrency exchange StormGain

However, Matt Hougan doesn't factor in that the negative impact of the outflow from Grayscale will be stronger this time around. After GBTC's conversion, the fund lost 45.9% of its coins in the first quarter, or 284,000 BTC. Grayscale's ETHE fund holds $10 billion worth of Ethereum. With a similar rate of investor exit, selling pressure would be $4.6 billion, and net inflows would be $2.1 billion, which is six times below what Bitcoin ETFs achieved.


Image source: coinglass.com

Another reason the altcoin will have a hard time replicating these results is the forced cancellation of staking. The annualised return on blockchain coins is now 3.2%. With restaking, that number exceeds 10%. As investors see it, Ethereum is losing the key advantage it had over Bitcoin: passive income.

That's why the potential demand for new ETFs may be greatly exaggerated, and unlocking the ETHE fund's assets could trigger another correction.


StormGain Analytical Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

[stormgain]

Bitcoin: Buying the Dip or the End of the Bull Cycle?

Investors have split into two camps: some are warning about a sell-off and the risk of a big correction, while others point to the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at discounted prices. Let's look at the arguments on both sides.

Reasons for the price to continue to drop:

- Bitcoin has already reached its four-year cycle target, updating its price record.
- The chart shows a double top pattern.
- Long-term holders are locking in profits.
- Retail investors are panicking and selling ETFs.
- Old coins are now in play.
- The U.S. and German governments are selling bitcoin.
- In the coming months, Mt.Gox will return over 140k of BTC to former customers.


Image source: x.com/10x_Research

All of this news has bombarded investors in recent weeks, adding to the negative sentiment. But if you look closely at each point, things are not actually so bad. For example, the movement of older coins is due to the consolidation of Mt.Gox assets before the payouts (the crypto exchange went bankrupt in 2014), and the profit taking by long-term holders in June was a far cry from the March peaks.


Image source: glassnode.com

Coin sales by government agencies and former Mt.Gox customers may have a short-term negative impact and cause a correction, but over the course of the year, this will be offset by the April halving. Supply is estimated to have decreased by 164,000 BTC a year.


Image source: coinwarz.com

Reasons for buying the dip:

- Bitcoin gaining the status as an investment asset (commodity) through the authorization of spot ETFs.
- Record institutional interest at the end of the first quarter.
- Growth of the global money supply.
- Global institutionalization of cryptocurrencies (e.g. the MiCA regulation).
- Halving and the relentless churn from crypto exchanges to cold wallets.
- The entry of new companies with reserves in Bitcoin (e.g. Metaplanet).
- The growing number of hedge funds that now have Bitcoin in their portfolios.


Image source: StormGain Cryptocurrency Exchange

As can be seen, the reasons for selling are predominantly short-term, while the reasons for buying are long-term. The impact of long-term factors is most clearly illustrated in the chart showing the growth of the money supply and Bitcoin as a limited-issue instrument. Each printing press run was accompanied by a new cycle of cryptocurrency growth. The world's central banks are now blowing the dust off them again: this year the ECB and the Bank of Canada have already lowered their key rates.


Image source: x.com/Jamie1Coutts

We should also not forget that Bitcoin was and remains a highly volatile instrument, which is characterized by both explosive growth and big drawdowns.


Image source: glassnode.com

In the current cycle, the drawdown is minor and uncharacteristic of a bull market. Even now it stands at 26%, whereas in previous growth phases it regularly surpassed 30%.


StormGain Analytical Group (https://stormgain.com/)
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)