BTC created new ATH before Halving: are you surprised?

[KryptoBull]

Today, BTC reached a new ATH, as of this moment, BTC's ATH is 69,170.63 USD. This really surprised me because in the past BTC has never created a new ATH before the Halving, meaning we have a new history for BTC.

Halving is an event that halves the block reward and doubles the scarcity of BTC instantly, every 210K blocks^[1]. According to design, block time = 10 minutes so 210K blocks = 2.1M minutes = 1458.33 days = 3.995 years ~ 4 years. And we are used to determining Halving in leap years: 2012 - 2016 - 2020 - 2024.

In the simplest terms, halving reduces miners' income, causing the minimum BTC mining cost to double, meaning that for miners to have the same income as before halving, the BTC price should also double. This is one of the driving forces for BTC prices to continuously increase after each Halving^[2]. This also causes BTC and the crypto market to have a 4-year cycle like the traditional market. I believe this is Satoshi's calculation when creating Bitcoin.

I believe BTC has ended its first historical period. This period lasts from halving 0 on January 3, 2009, when the genesis block for Bitcoin was mined by Satoshi^[3], to Halving 3 on May 11, 2020. Some properties of this period:

• ATH was created shortly as a single peak.
• The bottom of the crypto winter is no lower than the peak of the previous cycle.
• There is never a new ATH before Halving.
• BTC price at Halving is usually at Fibo 0.618 compared to the previous down wave.

This first stage is generally easy to predict because of the above properties.

The second phase is much more complicated, it may have started on Halving 3 on May 11, 2020 with some differences:

• The ATH existed as a double peak: in April and November 2021.
• The bottom of the crypto winter is lower than the peak of the previous cycle: 15.5K USD in November 2022 is lower than 19.8K USD in December 2017.
• New ATH appears before Halving: today's event.
• BTC price at Halving: not yet determined, may be higher than the ATH of the previous cycle.

Although I am not a technical investor and I congratulate BTC's new ATH, I am also worried about this change in BTC history. In the 2021 cycle, I just waited to sell tokens in November-December 2021 because I believed that the cyclicality of the crypto market would repeat. In this cycle, I'm not sure if it can be repeated. Maybe BTC's ATH for the entire cycle will still be created in November 2025, or maybe it will come in 2024 and 2025 will be the time for crypto winter. I'm not sure anyone can accurately predict this, we need more data to analyze.

I want to know your views on Bitcoin reaching a new ATH before the Halving.

• Are you surprised by this event?
• Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
• Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

References:
[1] What Is Bitcoin Halving? Definition, How It Works, Why It Matters
[2] Bitcoin Halving 2024: How It Works and Why It Matters
[3] How and when did Bitcoin start? The complete Bitcoin history
Note:

• My opinion was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
• I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
• I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread ^{if necessary}.

[Captain Corporate]

It touched the clouds for a moment and then went down again. I have to say its really a great feeling to see this, there is really no other feeling like this in the economy world. Of course it crashed a bit right afterwards as well and that's just normal, there is nothing wrong with that. I have to see where it leads, and it has to be something that will take a while, I know that the recovery will eventually happen and we should be considering the deal to be bigger than what we have seen so far. I hope that it is a quick one, there could be more falls after this one, and I do not want to see that happen.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

BTC created new ATH before Halving: are you surprised?

I was not surprised but rather I was happy to wake up this morning and see that the ATH of Bitcoin on binance exchange was $69k. It have already been predicted time past which I was in doubt but due to the speed at which the price continued to surge through last week, I was just sure that it definitely will end up to birth a new all time high soon.

[dwyane36]

It touched the clouds for a moment and then went down again.

The fact that the BTC price dropped sharply to $59k immediately after touching ATH indicates extreme resistance at this level. There is no doubt that the BTC price will test it again, but I think it will take some time, and it will probably take a few attempts to break this level finally.

[bitterguy28]

Today, BTC reached a new ATH, as of this moment, BTC's ATH is 69,170.63 USD. This really surprised me because in the past BTC has never created a new ATH before the Halving, meaning we have a new history for BTC.

I can feel you with this mate and actually this is what I stand recently in BTT not agreeing the thread created about bitcoin beating ATH before halving because this does not happen eversince.

• My opinion was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
• I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
• I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread ^{if necessary}.

Yeah , have seen that there mate and thanks for reminding us here .

It touched the clouds for a moment and then went down again.

The fact that the BTC price dropped sharply to $59k immediately after touching ATH indicates extreme resistance at this level. There is no doubt that the BTC price will test it again, but I think it will take some time, and it will probably take a few attempts to break this level finally.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

we  are nearing that point again mate.

[0t3p0t]

1. Are you surprised by this event?
2. Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
3. Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

1. Since I am not aware of this event not until you shared this OP it doesn't surprise me me either. I personally do not check charts that often since I am only holding my Bitcoins and a bit busy right now but I was aware of prices because I check for it every time I am online but with charts nah.
2. Maybe as most of investors really do care reading charts and of course analysing events like this for future references.
3. Sort of but as a hodler I don't give it too much of an attention I just don't want to stress out on things I cannot accurately guess but yeah I have timeframe. I came across to a traders post years ago that Bitcoin is going on in a pattern og making new ATH or having bullrun every four years but if it changes then we will adjust and still hodl.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Am not surprised, i don't think this will be the first time we will be having experience in such manner, another thing that boosted this experience maybe was the bitcoin spot ETF that was approved, it may not be the main reason but i believe its part of the reasons, now from here henceforth, we should be expecting for more highs as the market remain more volatile than before and the coins are rising and falling, but increasing in market value and hits all time high the more we go.

[LogitechMouse]

I want to know your views on Bitcoin reaching a new ATH before the Halving.

• Are you surprised by this event?
• Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
• Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

1. Hell YEAH!!!!!
TBH, I didn't think that it reached a new ATH because I'm basing on both Coingecko and Coinmarketcap and both of them aren't showing new ATHs. I guess it isn't important because it's only a matter of time when it will surpass that price. I was surprised when some were saying that it created a new ATH where in fact, we saw Bitcoin's price going down to as low as $62,000. Well, it seems like it only lasted for minutes until it went down again. There's so much selling pressure on that price.

2. I will only consider that we are already at the start of the bull run "IF" Bitcoin surpasses its previous ATH of around $69,000, and stays above it for a long time. If that happens, I might stop buying Bitcoin and will focus on buying altcoins because they are lagging. I'm already holding enough Bitcoin, and I'm just waiting for my sell targets to be reached. Overall, this signals a new phase for Bitcoin. From the accumulation phase, to now the bull market phase. It's only a matter of time until we see it.

3. Nope because after all, Bitcoin is unpredictable. There will be times when Bitcoin will do something that we didn't even see in the history of it, and this might be one of them. Another one is Bitcoin reaching a 6-digit price for the first time in more than a decade of its existence. After all, worrying will just make me more stressed. Let's just enjoy what we are seeing, and take profits at a price you feel it's enough for you.

[ScamViruS]

Bitcoin has seen a sharp decline to the 59k level after touching the previous ATH, and it was beyond the imagination of leverage traders that it would be so fast. We failed in the first attempt, but Bitcoin is taking a second attempt as it quickly recovered from that rapid decline and is now trading at the 67k level. Bitcoin may be gearing up for the final breakout, which may be in the next few days or may take longer.

I am patiently waiting to see another historic breakout. If Bitcoin can break this resistance, then everyone is interested to see where the new ATH of Bitcoin will be, because it will be another insane run.

[milewilda]

I want to know your views on Bitcoin reaching a new ATH before the Halving.

• Are you surprised by this event?
• Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
• Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

1. Not really, on the time that ETF been approved then i do have already anticipated or having those expectations that we would be touching ATH pre-halving period
2. When it comes to new stage then it would really be determined when it do happens but telling it before then it is really hard to tell.
3. Market is never been predictable in the first place.

Thing here is that there are really things or factors on which could affect overall market movement and this is something that could
happen along the way.

[legend45]

It touched the clouds for a moment and then went down again. I have to say its really a great feeling to see this, there is really no other feeling like this in the economy world. Of course it crashed a bit right afterwards as well and that's just normal, there is nothing wrong with that. I have to see where it leads, and it has to be something that will take a while, I know that the recovery will eventually happen and we should be considering the deal to be bigger than what we have seen so far. I hope that it is a quick one, there could be more falls after this one, and I do not want to see that happen.

The price of bitcoin after reaching $69K, then fell seemed to drop, but in my opinion this is just a correction. Now we see the price of bitcoin back to $67K going up and down from $67K - to $66K. I think this is just a correction to be able to make $70K this week.

[BitMaxz]

The price of bitcoin after reaching $69K, then fell seemed to drop, but in my opinion this is just a correction. Now we see the price of bitcoin back to $67K going up and down from $67K - to $66K. I think this is just a correction to be able to make $70K this week.

There is no bad news that could cause of the drop but it was overbought yesterday since the drop is around 10% I think you're right it is just a correction and it bounced back again to $67k.
Now it's pretty stable and hope to see the price touch again at the new ATH.

[MrSpasybo]

Although I am not a technical investor and I congratulate BTC's new ATH, I am also worried about this change in BTC history. In the 2021 cycle, I just waited to sell tokens in November-December 2021 because I believed that the cyclicality of the crypto market would repeat. In this cycle, I'm not sure if it can be repeated. Maybe BTC's ATH for the entire cycle will still be created in November 2025, or maybe it will come in 2024 and 2025 will be the time for crypto winter. I'm not sure anyone can accurately predict this, we need more data to analyze.

I want to know your views on Bitcoin reaching a new ATH before the Halving.

• Are you surprised by this event?
• Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
• Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

1. Technical analysis is based on the assumption that history will repeat itself: at the same time or market state, price behavior will be as volatile as in the past. Normally, BTC only approaches Fibo 0.618 before Halving, but this time we saw BTC create a new ATH before Halving, this has never happened, I believe cycle analysts will be surprised.

2. I don't think this is a completely new history: it just shows us that some properties will no longer be true, for example "the new ATH could completely come before the Halving". The remaining properties may still hold, such as periodicity.

3. It is true that these changes lead to limited predictability in the future, similar to the current BTC can completely correct deeper than the old peak during the crypto winter. However, as I expect, the periodicity will still be guaranteed, meaning we can still expect to have a full-cycle ATH in 2025.

[Gurujebs]

It touched the clouds for a moment and then went down again.

The fact that the BTC price dropped sharply to $59k immediately after touching ATH indicates extreme resistance at this level. There is no doubt that the BTC price will test it again, but I think it will take some time, and it will probably take a few attempts to break this level finally.

I don't think this all time high of 69k is going to take a whole. The reason why the market dump so much after testing the ATH was because people are afraid of not tlbe dump up, they don't want what happened in the last bullrun should happen to them and that is not selling when they had the opportunity to sell but you can see that the price has recover back to $67k stronger.

What I think is thag if we retest the $69k and it didn't crash or stay in between $67k and $69k, then the all time high will be broken even before the halving and we will see another massive run of bitcoin above $100k.

[Captain Corporate]

I agree that we have seen a very very strong resistance, its not going to be that easy at all, it won't be even compared to what we have seen so far. It is clear that Bitcoin recovered and that's the most important part, there is really nothing that could change this fact. So that means we are going to toss against the wall here and there, but then we are going to end up recovering. So we may see a few more times trying to hit the wall, and bounce back down, and hit again etc a few more times. Eventually its going to get a lot better, and we will manage to break over that 70k price eventually for sure.