Multi-stage positive impact from spot BTC ETFs on BTC

[KryptoBull]

The approval of spot BTC ETFs in the US in January 2024 ^[1] was a major event in the history of BTC and the development of the crypto market. Spot BTC ETFs help attract capital from traditional investors into BTC through ETF providers and help support the price increase of BTC.

Currently, the buying pressure from spot BTC ETFs has only affected the OTC market, but it has also helped to reduce the selling pressure on CEXs and has had a positive impact on the BTC price. In the future, it is expected that after the BTC halving, when the OTC market is not liquid enough to meet the demand for BTC accumulation from ETF providers, we will see the BTC price directly affected by the buying pressure of spot BTC ETFs. It can be said that spot BTC ETFs are a tool that amplifies the impact of the upward trend in the market during an uptrend, and of course, on the other hand, when the market enters a downtrend, it will be a tool that amplifies the impact of the downward trend, when traditional investors take profits on billions of dollars worth of BTC.

Currently, I believe we are in an uptrend because the BTC halving has not happened yet. We can remain optimistic for another 12-18 months after the BTC Halving before we need to worry about the fate of the market. Although I do not really support spot BTC ETFs, I even believe that it is a Trojan horse that Wall Street companies have put into the crypto market to destroy the demand for self-custody of crypto assets ^[2], I also cannot deny its positive impact on BTC price. Even spot BTC ETFs could be the reason why BTC has created a new ATH before halving ^[3].

However, what we have talked about above is only the first part of what spot BTC ETFs can impact the BTC price. I think its overall positive impact in the long term can be divided into 3 stages:

• Stage 1: Spot BTC ETFs reach interested investors who self-research to invest in spot BTC ETFs. Through advertising of spot BTC ETFs on the media, traditional investors who want to diversify their portfolios can learn about and choose to buy spot BTC ETFs. Investors in spot BTC ETFs in other countries will also switch to buying spot BTC ETFs in the US because they are more reputable and have lower management fees. I think this stage is happening and we can see a strong influx of new money ^[4], but this money is only temporary, easy to enter and easy to exit depending on the state of the crypto market.
• Stage 2: Investors are introduced to spot BTC ETFs by investment consulting firms ^{[5, 6]}. Investment consultants will suggest that investors allocate a portion of their portfolio to spot BTC ETFs to earn higher returns. Detailed information about each spot BTC ETF will be provided for investors to choose from. I think this will start soon after consulting firms have trained their employees on spot BTC ETFs. When this stage begins, the inflows into spot BTC ETFs will be larger and more stable.
• Stage 3: Investors invest in spot BTC ETFs without even knowing it ^[7,8]. They will only buy synthetic ETFs from the world's leading investment funds without knowing that those synthetic ETFs include a few percent allocated to spot BTC ETFs. We are seeing the first steps but they will surely take place and will help to maintain a huge flow of money, for example from pension funds, into spot BTC ETFs in the long term.

I personally believe that this is how things will play out. ETF providers will always want to have as much money invested in spot BTC ETFs as possible so that they can collect more asset management fees. And the best way to attract more capital is to make traditional investors optimistic about the future price increase of BTC. Price chart marketing will be the choice, and ETF providers have a reason to manipulate and keep BTC price going up this year and next year.

I would like to know your opinion on the multi-stage implications of spot BTC ETFs:

• In your opinion, at what stage are we in this multi-stage process?
• Do you anticipate a further positive influence of spot Btc ETFs on BTC price itself?
• If you were a participant in a pension fund, would you be comfortable with a portion of your assets being automatically allocated to spot BTC ETFs?

References:
[1] Spot Bitcoin ETFs Explained: Everything You Need to Know
[2] BTC spot ETF: Wall Street's Trojan horse
[3] BTC created new ATH before Halving: are you surprised?
[4] Bitcoin ETF Tracker
[5] Financial advisers seek ]uidance on recommending bitcoin ETFs
[6] Report: Morgan Stanley 'Racing' to Offer Bitcoin ETFs to All Clients
[7] Fidelity Unveils Crypto Exposure To Multi-Asset Etfs
[8] Bitcoin ETFs poised for US pension plan inflows, Standard Chartered analyst says
Note:

• My opinion has been presented in a topic, on BitcoinTalk forum.
• This topic on AltcoinsTalks forum has included a minor change in the way my opinion is presented.
• This statement is to avoid accusations of plagiarism.

[MrSpasybo]

I personally believe that this is how things will play out. ETF providers will always want to have as much money invested in spot BTC ETFs as possible so that they can collect more asset management fees. And the best way to attract more capital is to make traditional investors optimistic about the future price increase of BTC. Price chart marketing will be the choice, and ETF providers have a reason to manipulate and keep BTC price going up this year and next year.

I would like to know your opinion on the multi-stage implications of spot BTC ETFs:

• In your opinion, at what stage are we in this multi-stage process?
• Do you anticipate a further positive influence of spot Btc ETFs on BTC price itself?
• If you were a participant in a pension fund, would you be comfortable with a portion of your assets being automatically allocated to spot BTC ETFs?

While it may lead to a change in investor sentiment from self-custody to choosing simple, easy financial products backed by the world's leading asset management companies, BTC Spot ETFs are still seen as a major step forward for BTC in the financial market: helping to attract capital, helping to promote to investors, helping to affirm its legitimate position... I believe that in the short term, BTC Spot ETFs will be one of the main drivers of BTC price growth, potentially breaking the trend of declining profitability ratios that we are seeing with each cycle.

1. I think we are in Stage 1 and the early part of the remaining 2 Stages. Money is flowing into BTC Spot ETFs, investment consulting firms are training and preparing to introduce BTC Spot ETFs to clients, and large investment funds also want to allocate a portion of their models to BTC Spot ETFs.

2. When we view BTC Spot ETFs as a financial instrument that has the effect of amplifying trends in the market, we can believe that when the crypto market officially enters a bull run and creates strong FOMO, the inflow of money into BTC Spot ETFs will also increase, which will further exacerbate the supply crunch, further driving up the price of BTC and many ALTS.

3. I think we will gradually become familiar with BTC Spot ETFs in the financial market, meaning that investing in ETFs that include a few percent in BTC Spot ETFs or BTC is also normal. If BTC goes up in price, profits will increase, if BTC goes down in price, the loss can be completely balanced by the profits from the other assets in the portfolio.

[SamReomo]

You have written a really good post and I really found it valuable. +1 Karma for it, and in my opinion those ETFs have been very helpful to the current value of Bitcoin. Most of us anticipated that Bitcoin ETFs will help Bitcoin to cross value of $55k but it helped Bitcoin to get a new ATH.

I would like to answer question no 3, I would never be comfortable to allow portion of my assets being automatically allocated to spot BTC ETFs, instead of those I would be happy to allow portion on my assets to be allocated to BTC, not BTC ETFs.

I'm a firm supporter and lover of Bitcoin and I believe that as long as we hold it and we have the keys of the wallet that we own then we don't have to worry about anything. I know that Bitcoin ETFs are helping Bitcoin to grow in value but they are not useful for me.

[Trongduy]

I would like to know your opinion on the multi-stage implications of spot BTC ETFs:

• In your opinion, at what stage are we in this multi-stage process?
• Do you anticipate a further positive influence of spot Btc ETFs on BTC price itself?
• If you were a participant in a pension fund, would you be comfortable with a portion of your assets being automatically allocated to spot BTC ETFs?

1. I also think that stage 1 is happening very strongly, and other stages are being deployed and will soon be released and officially affect the BTC price.

2. Over time, as the uptrend becomes stronger, the impact of spot ETFs on the market will also be greater, leading the market to grow and soon reach a breaking point.

3. Currently, I am not in the US so I do not have an opinion on this, usually investors only care about profits and do not necessarily understand what assets those ETFs are investing in.

[Crypto Library]

<✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂>
I would like to know your opinion on the multi-stage implications of spot BTC ETFs:

• In your opinion, at what stage are we in this multi-stage process?

It is definitely happening that Bitcoin has given a huge pump so quickly due to multi-stage processing and also because of the volume of the market it has become so big now. And Bitcoin ETF Approval has a strong role in this multi-processing.

• Do you anticipate a further positive influence of spot Btc ETFs on BTC price itself?

Although I don't like anything centralized, I must say that I definitely think that bitcoin ETFs will definitely have a positive market influence on bitcoin. And if it has already done it, where Bitcoin was doing ups and downs between 40k and 50k, Bitcoin has suddenly crossed 70k by pumping.

• If you were a participant in a pension fund, would you be comfortable with a portion of your assets being automatically allocated to spot BTC ETFs?

<✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂✂>

Yes I must also invest a small amount of my pension in Bitcoin and that must be for long term which I am already doing by following DCA method.

[yhiaali3]

As for the positive impact of spot BTC ETFs, it is certain that it has already happened, and we have been seeing the positive effects of this impact in the market for several months, not just now, and it is growing over time.

We cannot deny the positive impact of an ETF on the price as well as on facilitating Bitcoin investment for people who do not know much about Bitcoin or the cryptocurrency market, but at the same time there are concerns that must be taken into account.

I like your analogy:

Although I do not really support spot BTC ETFs, I even believe that it is a Trojan horse that Wall Street companies have put into the crypto market to destroy the demand for self-custody of crypto assets

Yes, it is indeed a Trojan horse with the goal of “destroying the demand for self-custody of crypto assets” and it can also be likened to planting centralization in the heart of decentralization.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I would like to know your opinion on the multi-stage implications of spot BTC ETFs:

• In your opinion, at what stage are we in this multi-stage process?
• Do you anticipate a further positive influence of spot Btc ETFs on BTC price itself?
• If you were a participant in a pension fund, would you be comfortable with a portion of your assets being automatically allocated to spot BTC ETFs?

1. In Stage 1, obv.
2. Well, in the long-term price, I would say yes, as I believe that the investor in this type of ETF will invest for the long term, and this in the long run can help the price and the market cap to rise. But it can also add downside volatility in the downturns.
3. No. I have a pension plan, and I also have bitcoin that I prefer to manage directly, not through intermediaries.

[KryptoBull]

As for the positive impact of spot BTC ETFs, it is certain that it has already happened, and we have been seeing the positive effects of this impact in the market for several months, not just now, and it is growing over time.

-cut-
Yes, it is indeed a Trojan horse with the goal of “destroying the demand for self-custody of crypto assets” and it can also be likened to planting centralization in the heart of decentralization.

We can consider this as a trade-off and hope that the growth and popularity of BTC will attract more new users and help them understand the mission of BTC, thereby they will proactively buy and self-custody BTC instead of buying spot ETFs and making everything happen inside the stock market. I think we will need a few years to verify this through the number of BTC storage addresses and onchain activity. If these parameters decrease while the amount of BTC in ETFs funds increases, we will have to worry about the future of BTC and the entire crypto market!

In the short term, the uptrend that spot ETFs bring is really strong, we are seeing BTC recover to 72K USD and may soon create a new ATH again before halving. It's no coincidence: we have net inflows of spot BTC ETFs.

[TomPluz]

As a big source of the demand for Bitcoin created recently with its approval by the regulatory body of the government, I am sure that ETFs will be serving like a two-edged sword for the tokenized digital asset...and this is going to be true for Bitcoin and Eth (when it will be approved soon). As a two-edged sword, ETF can be creating a huge impact on the price of the asset but once that demand will dwindle then it can also pull the price movement to the ground.


1. In your opinion, at what stage are we in this multi-stage process?
For sure, we are still in the first stage of ETF history since it was approved just recently. I am expecting more colorful history of the ETFs for Bitcoin most especially in 2026 and beyond. While ETFs are getting a bulk of the business, we should note that it is because investors are looking forward how they can make more money with Bitcoin without directly handling the asset as many of them are used to be clients of many financial and institutional platforms already operating in the market for decades.

2. Do you anticipate a further positive influence of spot Btc ETFs on BTC price itself?
As far as influence is concerned, ETF is now considered to be the top influencer for BTC price and since the demand continues to be coming in then we can expect Bitcoin to be on the spotlight and if those investors will continue to be making big and stable money then this can be creating an avalanche of more demands. Now, if there can be a time when Bitcoin will temporary lost is luster then we can expect these investors to pull their placements thus the price of BTC can also be dragged...this is just a natural cycle for me and quite so apparent in the cryptocurrency industry.

3. If you were a participant in a pension fund, would you be comfortable with a portion of your assets being automatically allocated to spot BTC ETFs?
Yes, I would authorized my pension fund to also include the ETF option while the iron is still hot. I am not sure what kind of safety nets are available for these people but if there is one it would also be a good advice for them to avail of one...just like the idea of a "stop-loss" for traders. Yes, there are still some risks here for pensioners but the rewards can be staggering compared to the usual and traditional investment vehicles.

[KryptoBull]

As a big source of the demand for Bitcoin created recently with its approval by the regulatory body of the government, I am sure that ETFs will be serving like a two-edged sword for the tokenized digital asset...and this is going to be true for Bitcoin and Eth (when it will be approved soon). As a two-edged sword, ETF can be creating a huge impact on the price of the asset but once that demand will dwindle then it can also pull the price movement to the ground.

1. In your opinion, at what stage are we in this multi-stage process?
For sure, we are still in the first stage of ETF history since it was approved just recently. I am expecting more colorful history of the ETFs for Bitcoin most especially in 2026 and beyond. While ETFs are getting a bulk of the business, we should note that it is because investors are looking forward how they can make more money with Bitcoin without directly handling the asset as many of them are used to be clients of many financial and institutional platforms already operating in the market for decades.

2. Do you anticipate a further positive influence of spot Btc ETFs on BTC price itself?
As far as influence is concerned, ETF is now considered to be the top influencer for BTC price and since the demand continues to be coming in then we can expect Bitcoin to be on the spotlight and if those investors will continue to be making big and stable money then this can be creating an avalanche of more demands. Now, if there can be a time when Bitcoin will temporary lost is luster then we can expect these investors to pull their placements thus the price of BTC can also be dragged...this is just a natural cycle for me and quite so apparent in the cryptocurrency industry.

3. If you were a participant in a pension fund, would you be comfortable with a portion of your assets being automatically allocated to spot BTC ETFs?
Yes, I would authorized my pension fund to also include the ETF option while the iron is still hot. I am not sure what kind of safety nets are available for these people but if there is one it would also be a good advice for them to avail of one...just like the idea of a "stop-loss" for traders. Yes, there are still some risks here for pensioners but the rewards can be staggering compared to the usual and traditional investment vehicles.

Spot BTC ETFs have truly become a major part of BTC's price volatility, we cannot deny and will see its strong impact on BTC price and the crypto market. I feel that the role and popularity of BTC Halving has been overshadowed by the billions of USD flowing into BTC through spot ETFs. I wouldn't be surprised if spot BTC ETFs become popular in all ETFs in the future when BTC becomes a global reserve asset and the most successful investment asset in the first quarter of the 21st century.

Most importantly: I hope the number of users of the Bitcoin blockchain, the number of BTC storage addresses will also increase in line with the number of BTC of ETF providers.

[Jamal Aezaz]

We can consider this as a trade-off and hope that the growth and popularity of BTC will attract more new users and help them understand the mission of BTC, thereby they will proactively buy and self-custody BTC instead of buying spot ETFs and making everything happen inside the stock market. I think we will need a few years to verify this through the number of BTC storage addresses and onchain activity. If these parameters decrease while the amount of BTC in ETFs funds increases, we will have to worry about the future of BTC and the entire crypto market!

In the short term, the uptrend that spot ETFs bring is really strong, we are seeing BTC recover to 72K USD and may soon create a new ATH again before halving. It's no coincidence: we have net inflows of spot BTC ETFs.

Yes it is assumed that very soon new ATH will be created by bitcoin but price got dump from yesterday's value and now it is at the range of 68k$. I think this overall changes took place because of bitcoin ETF approval as well as the upcoming halving.

Bitcoin ETF move the market from dip to pump and once halving take place then this pump will further move and will bring new all the time high price that will persist until selling price remains lower.

[EthereumDev_]

Yes it is assumed that very soon new ATH will be created by bitcoin but price got dump from yesterday's value and now it is at the range of 68k$. I think this overall changes took place because of bitcoin ETF approval as well as the upcoming halving.

Bitcoin ETF move the market from dip to pump and once halving take place then this pump will further move and will bring new all the time high price that will persist until selling price remains lower.

It seems that bitcoin price movements have stabilized at $68k - $71k, with price movements like this there is a possibility for the price to rise to $80k perhaps in the near future, considering the bitcoin halving which will occur in one week's time. Immediately buy as much bitcoin as possible and wait until one day before the halving and we can sell it at a high price later.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Bitcoin spot ETF has been seen as a means of having a positive impact on the way bitcoin has recently performed, just as some have already said that this was the sole reason we have the bitcoin all time high right before the halving, and after that, we have also been seeing more bullish pattern concerning the way bitcoin moves and we are still expecting of going further in this to see more new all time high as we go towards the halving and after halving as the case may applies.

[Jamal Aezaz]

It seems that bitcoin price movements have stabilized at $68k - $71k, with price movements like this there is a possibility for the price to rise to $80k perhaps in the near future, considering the bitcoin halving which will occur in one week's time. Immediately buy as much bitcoin as possible and wait until one day before the halving and we can sell it at a high price later.

Halving is the only hope of people who have bought bitcoin at a price more than 65k$ because if price remains in the same range then they will have no profit at all and they cannot sell bitcoin in current Bull season. Very few days are remaining in bitcoin halving and there is a possibility that we will see 80k$.

Current price is good for buying but you can see that halving is very near but there is no such pump happen in Bitcoin's price so keep calm and hold the already bought bitcoin because buying at current or higher price will become risky for you.

[KryptoBull]

Bitcoin spot ETF has been seen as a means of having a positive impact on the way bitcoin has recently performed, just as some have already said that this was the sole reason we have the bitcoin all time high right before the halving, and after that, we have also been seeing more bullish pattern concerning the way bitcoin moves and we are still expecting of going further in this to see more new all time high as we go towards the halving and after halving as the case may applies.

The real cause of this new history is unknown, but spot BTC ETFs are a fairly reasonable explanation considering tens of billions of USD from traditional investors have been poured into BTC through spot ETFs. This is also something that has never existed in previous seasons, so at this time, analysts often attribute this as the cause, but I believe that in the future, in about 10-20 years, analysts with more data will be able to come up with explanations based on Elliott Wave or Wyckoff theory, or some other method, completely unrelated to spot ETFs.

I don't care much about this, whatever the cause, we have seen BTC increase very well for over a year, although today BTC has dropped to 66K USD but it still brings profits to most BTC investors in the market. What we should care about now is the halving and its impact, I hope this will be the driving force to push us into altseason.