What has been the bitcoin price performance since the halving?

[NikeFit_7777]

CoinGecko analysts analyzed each of the cycles, determining the average growth after the event - 3230%.

This figure was largely influenced by the first halving, when the exchange rate increased by 8858% - from 12$ to 1075$ over the next 12 months. The inflation of the first cryptocurrency dropped from 25.75% to 12%.

After the second halving, the exchange rate went from 650$ to 2560$ (294%) during the same period. Inflation: 8.7% → 4.1%.

The third halving resulted in a 540% increase in the quote from 8727$ to 55,847$. Inflation: 3.7% → 1.8%.

CoinGecko noted that although bitcoin is "better positioned than ever" thanks to ETFs, the halving is only a baseline.

Even projected inflation, which could make demand even higher after the fourth event, does not guarantee immunity from a number of factors: selling pressure, perception, global market liquidity, regulation, macroeconomic trends and market events.

[bounceback]

After halving, bitcoin performance not promising yet keep going down every time and currently keep stable around $61k, its not significant increasing actually one month before halving moment after bitcoin success break out to the higher price and reach new ATH. I think the moment for bitcoin up and make another ATH seems bit difficult and need longer time take break for raising up to $73k or raise new ATH price.
Keep be patience for short term trading how market current condition and need to find potential altcoin faster movement because bitcoin seems stable and difficult increasing drastically.

[Zed0X]

I think the pump from the first halving should be treated as an outlier when talking about average increase. We'll have a more realistic expectation if that's remove from the computation.

In any case, the percentage increase in this 2024 halving could be the same as the third or a bit higher. BTC at six digits by late 2024 or early 2025 is still not out of the picture.

[MrSpasybo]

I think the pump from the first halving should be treated as an outlier when talking about average increase. We'll have a more realistic expectation if that's remove from the computation.

In any case, the percentage increase in this 2024 halving could be the same as the third or a bit higher. BTC at six digits by late 2024 or early 2025 is still not out of the picture.

I think everything is normal and reasonable, including the entire BTC price fluctuation in each cycle. BTC's price performance is hindered by price, marketcap, and ALTS participation. This means that the increase of BTC price will slow down over time, until there is a major change in the price regime: from convergence to stability to a larger bubble.

I am very optimistic about the impact of BTC Spot ETF but I do not think it can change the current regime of BTC: meaning that the price performance of BTC in this cycle will be smaller than in the previous cycle, meaning that using the connecting line of the 2 peaks of the 2 previous cycles cannot help suggest the peak of the next cycle.

[vegasus]

We still need several months again to see the significant pump of Bitcoin, I think so.
Yes, apart from calculations and chart analysis from the Bitcoin market, like the usual cycle in past seasons, it will take several months for Bitcoin to adapt again after the halving and then it will start to rise again to break through the next ATH. The difference is in what month it is likely to happen. Because BTC itself has been able to pass last season's ATH, so what we continue to focus on is the next ATH from the ATH that occurred before the halving. This is still quite difficult to predict because ATH usually appears after the halving, but this is even before the halving. Maybe that will have an influence on market analysis too?

[TomPluz]

I am looking forward to see which of these projected outcomes will really materialize for Bitcoin in the coming months of 2024 and 2025. Past performances can be a good way to see the future but there is always no guarantee that things will be the same or the intensity can be replicated. Who knows...Bitcoin can be charting a new direction never been seen in the past as far as the potential of growth coming from the halving event. This time around we have the ETFs which can surely make demand surge or dampen the market depending on the market mood. Let's see what other related developments will take place that can directly and indirectly affect the price of Bitcoin.

[hugeblack]

Comparing the cash flows from the ETF versus the new Bitcoin being mined tells us that the ETF event affects the market more than the halving, so a month or two is not enough to judge what will happen. It is better to wait until the end of the year and then compare the impact against previous years.

[TopT3ns]

Comparing the cash flows from the ETF versus the new Bitcoin being mined tells us that the ETF event affects the market more than the halving, so a month or two is not enough to judge what will happen. It is better to wait until the end of the year and then compare the impact against previous years.

Of course ETFs have a very good impact, but this is all also the effect of price manipulation carried out by whales. They take advantage of good news like this to increase the price of Bitcoin. If there is no good news like this then they don't dare to pump the price of Bitcoin.

[MrSpasybo]

I am looking forward to see which of these projected outcomes will really materialize for Bitcoin in the coming months of 2024 and 2025. Past performances can be a good way to see the future but there is always no guarantee that things will be the same or the intensity can be replicated. Who knows...Bitcoin can be charting a new direction never been seen in the past as far as the potential of growth coming from the halving event. This time around we have the ETFs which can surely make demand surge or dampen the market depending on the market mood. Let's see what other related developments will take place that can directly and indirectly affect the price of Bitcoin.

Yeah, it is very difficult to predict the future accurately, especially since BTC has created its own new history thanks to the positive impact of BTC Spot ETFs. However, I believe that Spot ETFs do not change the fundamental characteristics of the market: bullrun - bearsleep - accumulation - recovery, and currently we are only in the early stages of the bullrun. This means that we can be optimistic and focus on the price increase in the end of this year and early next year, while not forgetting to monitor the market and use our own analysis methods to identify market reversals to make timely decisions to protect the profits that we have worked hard to achieve.

Regarding the price performance of BTC in this cycle: I still think that it will not be able to surpass the previous cycle. I think the predictions that BTC will reach $500K-1M in this cycle seem unrealistic, but I will not hesitate to close my BTC profits at that price zone ^^

[Jamal Aezaz]

Of course ETFs have a very good impact, but this is all also the effect of price manipulation carried out by whales. They take advantage of good news like this to increase the price of Bitcoin. If there is no good news like this then they don't dare to pump the price of Bitcoin.

ETFs showed good effects on the price of Bitcoin as well as on other coins but the whales who make buying and selling on a large scale surely want to take benefit from the current market so they are regularly applying their role in market alterations.

The market fluctuations are not always because of bad news but sometimes whales don't allow the situations to remain favorable always so I think it will be better to think positively and wait until the price goes higher to make you financially stable with your investment.

[Faisal2202]

That's what a market does, it's full of surprises, we face selling pressure, then buying pressure as well, people do the perception some do in a bearish manner but some do it in a bullish manner as well. Overall, Halving has been proven as a big factor for the growth of BTC. I never compared the inflation rate with halvings before, thanks for sharing such data, but I wonder what use it could be of. As you did not mention.

The market will face a lot of pressure and will change its behavior with time too, and it will become highly volatile, considering the time of your post, I can say the market was not so good at that time, but as of writing this reply market already exceeded $65k. Which is a good thing because many traders predicted that if it will cross the $65k then it will move toward $73k target again. I think market was just taking a correction what you think?

[bitmover]

I see no surprise here.

You can see in the chart in the OP that the price always goes down a little bit after the halving. It skyrocket a few months later.

[Baofeng]

I see no surprise here.

You can see in the chart in the OP that the price always goes down a little bit after the halving. It skyrocket a few months later.

Yeah, give it like 6 months for the price to go up, or at least at the end of this year, it's a good measuring stick. And personally, I think the pattern will still continue, that every halving we will see new all time high.

So it's just a matter of time and what will be the top price for this year.

And as we all know, conservative estimates is $100k so that will be the likely target or at least double what is the previous all time high which is $69k.

[0t3p0t]

As of this post, I can see on the daily and 7 day timeframe that Bitcoin price is bullish so yeah something is good coming I think but yeah still depends on future events. No one can really accurately guess the exact price of Bitcoin especially after havling event.