1. The minimum deep that BTC dived to was 17,500$ do you still think we are going below 13,000$? If yes please explain.
2. Does it matter if you build a crypto portfolio at 15k per BTC or 10k per BTC.
3. In 2020 covid was the reason why BTC crumbled to 3,500$ what will happen in 2023 that will bring the same deep dive to crypto market.
4. Crypto keeps looking stronger every year, it's getting more recognised and big players of the world are saying BTC is a better store of value than the dollar for long term, are they right.
Here's my personal thoughts (don't follow blindly):
1. I'm totally prepared for BTC to at least wick down to ~15K, or linger there for months.
The most important thing to remember here is, the Fed is not printing money anymore. (For the newcomers: USD is world's reserve currency, that's why that's so important). So... it's pretty hard to attract the moneyflow necessary to fuel a bullmarket. The money aren't there. Rich people prefer bonds in these conditions, the so-called "risk-off" sector. Stock market and Crypto market are viewed as risky investments (crypto much more so). So, crypto needs a damn good catalyst to start a bullmarket outside of money-printing conditions.
If the Fed doesn't pivot, we may not see money-printing for many months to come. Now... foreign (foreign to the US) chaos may pressure the Fed to start printing sooner, because the war in Europe is enough chaos for the world right now. Everything else (like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Taiwan etc.) is crossing the line.
The bad thing is, recession is looming (if not here already), and, unlike previous times, the Fed cannot resume money-printing to get the world economy out of the recession like it usually does. We may have to live through a recession without money-printing. And that would mean an exceptionally long bearmarket (not enough dry powder to fuel a bullmarket in crypto).
Oh, don't forget housing market crashing too. Wealth is being destroyed here. And since nobody is buying property right now, you basically can't sell your house and buy BTC. Cos, simply, nobody will buy your house right now. No buyers. So - no bullmarket in crypto too.
2. I don't believe it matters.
IF you have an income that doesn't classify you as poor, this means you can put reasonable sums aside every month. A $5K margin is nothing, really, it's a tight range for BTC. If BTC falls to $15K-$10K range, this means you have time to DCA your portfolio all over that tight range, and it would be pretty good, imo.
Don't look at it as separate levels, like, "you f-ed up cos you invested at 15K BTC and it fell to 10K", no. It's a tight range, I personally view these two levels as one singular bottom range, and I would like to be all over the place there.
3. I don't believe there will be such an event. COVID was a one-off, a Black Swan event. Black Swans are not regular, as some TA line drawers and fractal-pasters lead people to believe.
4. Yes, they are right. I believe in this.
I think it will be quite the digression to give an explanation here. But you will really benefit from googling "The Origin of Modern Money - and its Dark Future", it's a great explanation.
HOWEVER - do not interpret this as "BTC will only gain in value against the dollar". BTC is a better store of value and the centralized fiat financial system is failing,
but that doesn't mean there's no danger for you as an investor to lose your money in the turbulence ahead. Also, do take into consideration the financial war CBDC's are going to start. It is guaranteed metaphorically, but I personally think there will be a real confrontation too.