CNBC: Bitcoin was up 155% in 2023—but should you invest? Here’s what experts say

[pawel7777]

A CNBC's article from yesterday. As it usually happens, they never give a straight answer to the question asked in the headline, but the "experts" seem pretty bullish on BTC's performance in 2024.

Bitcoin was up 155% in 2023—but should you invest? Here’s what experts say

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/22/bitcoin-is-now-a-good-time-to-invest.html

Cryptocurrency investors spent much of 2023 waiting for good news.

Following the late 2022 collapse of FTX — at the time the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange — popular digital currency bitcoin traded just north of $16,000 to start the year, a far cry from the more than $60,000 it traded for during 2021′s crypto boom.

Over the last few months, though, things began looking up. Crypto investors became more and more convinced that the SEC would approve a years-long effort from fund companies to bring a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund to market, a move crypto boosters expected to stoke demand for the popular coin.

By the time news broke on Jan. 10 that 11 new bitcoin ETFs would begin trading, crypto investors were taking a victory lap, having bid the coin’s price up by 155% in calendar year 2023.

So, what now? Are we off to another crypto bull market, or have bitcoin enthusiasts gotten ahead of themselves?

“This is definitely an inflection point,” says Brian Vendig, president of MJP Wealth Advisors in Westport, Connecticut.

Here’s what he and other experts say to expect from here.

Expect more demand, and more new funds
The new wave of bitcoin ETFs makes it easier than ever for investors in more traditional assets, such as stocks and bonds, to dip their toes into crypto. Instead of having to open a separate account to buy crypto — often with high trading fees — investors in the ETFs can hold bitcoin right alongside their other investments in their brokerage accounts.

That’s just the beginning, says Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, an investment firm that offers one of the 11 new funds.

“We think it was a huge step forward that will unlock significant demand, given the cost savings for the retail buyer and security available to institutional purchasers,” he says.

The new ETFs will soon allow advisors who deal with high net worth clients and big money institutions to start incorporating crypto into their portfolios, he adds.

“They don’t have the ability to put these bitcoin ETFs into client discretionary portfolios, yet,” Sigel says. “But we can observe several banks and brokers already preparing these models, which we expect to emerge later this year.”

Expect more new crypto ETFs, too — and in different flavors.

“It seems inevitable that we’ll have ETFs tied to ether, as a secondary cryptocurrency for people to invest in,” says Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFI. In the meantime, he says, “the door is now open for a range of ETFs that include bitcoin as well as other assets.”

Experts say these might be as simple as portfolios that combine bitcoin exposure with mainstream investments, such as those in the S&P 500. More complex so-called alternative strategies are likely to emerge as well, such as funds that use a bitcoin holding to hedge against the performance of other investments.

The outlook for crypto: ‘It’s all still speculation’
The rapid rise in bitcoin’s price of late would feel huge for a traditional asset, such as a stock or bond, but isn’t really anything to write home about in Cryptoland, says Stephane Ouellete, founder and CEO of FRNT Financial.

“You’ve seen some speculation come in on the announcement of bitcoin ETFs, but all the metrics we look at to gauge where we’re at in the market cycle tell us that we’re so far away from the FOMO market where everyone and their dog is talking about crypto,” he says.

Measures such as Google Trends searches for bitcoin and cryptocurrency, financing for crypto companies and investor trading volumes are all relatively muted, he says. In other words, if the crypto market is going to enter into another bull trading cycle, we’re in the very early days of it.

That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time to pile in, though. Bitcoin experts aren’t buying because of an ETF rollout. Rather, they believe in bitcoin’s long-term potential as a store of value and as an alternative payment system in developing countries. They believe in a future where blockchain technology develops into a bigger part of the U.S. economic ecosystem.

That may never come to pass. And even if you believe in a long-term thesis, remember — cryptocurrencies don’t trade based on underlying fundamentals the way that stocks do. That means prices move purely based on investor activity.

“It’s all still speculation. That hasn’t changed,” says Vendig.

If you’re thinking about adding crypto to your portfolio, ask yourself what role it can play in getting you to your personal financial goals, he says.

“If an investor can answer that appropriately, then you can actually figure out the sizing you should have,” he says. “Do you want to dip your toe into this asset class? Or is that asset class not even rational for you as an investor?”

If you invest in crypto, Vendig recommends keeping things small. “I’d say 1% on the more conservative side, and no more than 5% of your total portfolio if you’re a growth-focused investor.”

[Don Pedro Dinero]

It is probably a lose-lose situation to give a direct answer because if you recommend an investment and the investor loses money he will blame you, but if he wins he will think he made a good investment and forget about you.

I agree that everything indicates that it is a good year to invest, but if we talk about crypto globally I am sure that many people are going to lose a lot of money trying to hunt the next altcoin that makes a x100.

[Gurujebs]

I have learnt some lessons about bitcoin. It has a habit that only few people understand, it will grow when everyone least expect a move from it. Anytime I see speculations related to Bitcoin, then I know that it will soon makes some crazy run and nobody will see it coming and what should average person do about it, just hold and save yourself some headache, you don't lose holding bitcoin as long as you hold it until it's ripe for profits.

CNBC aren't really fan of bitcoin, they are just piece of media that is interested in views that will come from Bitcoin community and that's all, this so called expert also can't 100% predicts what the bitcoin price will say tomorrow. If you know the habit of something, stick to it and for Bitcoin is to hold and see whether bullrun will come or not but history says it will come.

[pawel7777]

It is probably a lose-lose situation to give a direct answer because if you recommend an investment and the investor loses money he will blame you, but if he wins he will think he made a good investment and forget about you.

Yeah, that's why they never do. Giving a straight answer to their readers could also expose them to legal actions, as it could be seen as financial advise, and if people followed it and lost, they wouldn't be very happy about it.

I agree that everything indicates that it is a good year to invest, but if we talk about crypto globally I am sure that many people are going to lose a lot of money trying to hunt the next altcoin that makes a x100.

That's inevitable. Lots of retail investors can only afford to invest small amounts, so any returns of say 100% or less are not very appealing to them and they end up gambling on x100 moon shots.

[yhiaali3]

Their analyzes are really funny, they see the truth with their own eyes but they want to hide it and circumvent it so as not to acknowledge the success achieved by Bitcoin.

Despite everything that is said about Bitcoin, fluctuations, risks, etc., they cannot hide the fact that Bitcoin has become the talk of the whole world, just as they cannot hide the clear fact that everyone wants to invest in Bitcoin.

CNBC and its analysts are all linked to the government and do not dare say things that the government does not like, so instead of acknowledging Bitcoin’s achievements, they manipulate words to scare people.