Gold, de-dollarization, global economy

[DrBeer]

A poll conducted by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies found that 50.5 percent of respondents in the ten ASEAN member countries would choose the Asian power in 2024, while 49.5 percent would pick the United States.

This has changed from 38.9 percent and 61.1 percent, respectively, just one year ago.
.....

I looked at the data, decided to double-check. It's just some weird "arithmetic"... Please check in Excel by calculating the given data using the "average" formula. I get, to put it mildly, a different picture ... Where is the problem?



Somehow now I have doubts about the data from Statista ...

[DrBeer]

....

And here the picture is not very revealing, well, except that the value of gold is rising, as in an asset that is still considered a "safe haven". Yes, the price is rising in the historical period, which itself reflects two key processes:
- demand growth -> buying growth
- inflationary processes in countries.


Now let's look at these 2 processes:
1. Demand growth The process is caused by 1 factor - active purchase of gold on the world market. And a subtle but important clarification - since 2018/2019 gold has become extremely actively purchased very actively, and 2019 became a "champion" in terms of volumes of purchased gold. And this trend was set by one country..... And that is Russia. Let's think about why Russia suddenly suddenly started buying gold on the world market! Let's not waste time, everything is very simple - an attempt to protect themselves from sanctions, which began to have a very negative impact on the country's economy. 
The second major buyer, in the same period became.... China! I think it is not necessary to discuss the reasons, as they are identical
I think you will notice another global price increase during this period. Information about this "unexpectedly favorite gold couple" can be easily found in open sources. For example https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-02/central-bank-first-quarter-gold-buying-at-highest-since-2013.

2. inflation. A "natural" process for many economies of the world. And in the US, and in China, and in Russia and many others....
Let's look at how inflation affects the price of gold in other currencies. Let's take the U.S., and "a couple" - China, Russia, as the most active buyers of gold.

Source: https://goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/usd#historical-chart
Period - last 10 years (let's see the real picture)









PS Especially "strong impression" is made by the country which has 40% of the world's natural resources, the largest producer of gold, the largest player in the oil/gas world market.

[Peter90]

I looked at the data, decided to double-check. It's just some weird "arithmetic"... Please check in Excel by calculating the given data using the "average" formula. I get, to put it mildly, a different picture ... Where is the problem?



Somehow now I have doubts about the data from Statista ...

I think the author, Katharina Buchholz, has considered the different population of those countries.

For example, given that Philippines 120 millions people and Indonesia 280 millions...
...maybe the survey didn't ask 100 Philipinos and 100 Indonesians, but 40-50 Filipinos and 100 Indonesians
...or they asked 100 Filipinos and 100 Indonesians but at in the final numbers (those in the graphic) they weighed the answers from Indonesia double compared to those from the Philippines

A good question for
Katharina Buchholz
Data Journalist
[email protected]

https://www.statista.com/chart/32058/preference-for-us-china-as-ally-among-asean-countries/

[Peter90]

[DrBeer]

I looked at the data, decided to double-check. It's just some weird "arithmetic"... Please check in Excel by calculating the given data using the "average" formula. I get, to put it mildly, a different picture ... Where is the problem?



Somehow now I have doubts about the data from Statista ...

I think the author, Katharina Buchholz, has considered the different population of those countries.

For example, given that Philippines 120 millions people and Indonesia 280 millions...
...maybe the survey didn't ask 100 Philipinos and 100 Indonesians, but 40-50 Filipinos and 100 Indonesians
...or they asked 100 Filipinos and 100 Indonesians but at in the final numbers (those in the graphic) they weighed the answers from Indonesia double compared to those from the Philippines

A good question for
Katharina Buchholz
Data Journalist
[email protected]

https://www.statista.com/chart/32058/preference-for-us-china-as-ally-among-asean-countries/

I was honestly thinking the same thing. But no. I'll tell you why. The first explanation is purely arithmetic. The sum of the population in the block "for China" - about 388 million, "for the U.S." - 290. Total - no matter how you twist the numbers - the result indicated in the "analyte" does not work out. And let's be honest - to speak for all people is probably very wrong, you will not claim that 580 million respondents were surveyed !???

The second and simpler explanation: not a very successful attempt at manipulation. This is from personal long experience of reading different sources of information. What I wrote earlier on "discrepancy of statements in statistics and reality" - this is not a complaint to you, it is just informing you that the source of information, to put it mildly.... is a liar, whether intentionally or not is a good question

Very often, journalists write to convey what they need to convey, and at the same time they do not squander such "tricks" with figures and with presenting information in a "favorable way". Therefore, I try to check all the data that cause doubts or may distort reality. Nothing personal, just issues of "information hygiene"

PS I always recommend to check those materials that you do not like (contradict your opinion), as well as those that fully coincide with your point of view - believe me, "life will play with other colors" .

[Peter90]

Norway producing almost all electricity from water.
Impressive

Vietnam producing 40% from water!
Does Vietnam have big rivers?
Who knew

[Peter90]

I looked at the data, decided to double-check. It's just some weird "arithmetic"... Please check in Excel by calculating the given data using the "average" formula. I get, to put it mildly, a different picture ... Where is the problem?



Somehow now I have doubts about the data from Statista ...

I think the author, Katharina Buchholz, has considered the different population of those countries.

For example, given that Philippines 120 millions people and Indonesia 280 millions...
...maybe the survey didn't ask 100 Philipinos and 100 Indonesians, but 40-50 Filipinos and 100 Indonesians
...or they asked 100 Filipinos and 100 Indonesians but at in the final numbers (those in the graphic) they weighed the answers from Indonesia double compared to those from the Philippines

A good question for
Katharina Buchholz
Data Journalist
[email protected]

https://www.statista.com/chart/32058/preference-for-us-china-as-ally-among-asean-countries/

I was honestly thinking the same thing. But no. I'll tell you why. The first explanation is purely arithmetic. The sum of the population in the block "for China" - about 388 million, "for the U.S." - 290. Total - no matter how you twist the numbers - the result indicated in the "analyte" does not work out. And let's be honest - to speak for all people is probably very wrong, you will not claim that 580 million respondents were surveyed !???

The second and simpler explanation: not a very successful attempt at manipulation. This is from personal long experience of reading different sources of information. What I wrote earlier on "discrepancy of statements in statistics and reality" - this is not a complaint to you, it is just informing you that the source of information, to put it mildly.... is a liar, whether intentionally or not is a good question

Very often, journalists write to convey what they need to convey, and at the same time they do not squander such "tricks" with figures and with presenting information in a "favorable way". Therefore, I try to check all the data that cause doubts or may distort reality. Nothing personal, just issues of "information hygiene"

PS I always recommend to check those materials that you do not like (contradict your opinion), as well as those that fully coincide with your point of view - believe me, "life will play with other colors" .

Statista has nothing to do with the numbers

If you had followed the link that I posted you had found the original source
https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/The-State-of-SEA-2024.pdf

If you have a problem with the numbers you should go after the authors of the survey, not after Statista


The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report
is published by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute

If you have any comments or enquiries about the survey, please email us at [email protected]

Joanne Lin
Melinda Martinus
Kristina Fong
Indira Aridati
Pham Thi Phuong Thao
Damon Chee

The authors are researchers at the ASEAN Studies Centre, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, Singapore
.....................................




In my previous reply I suggested to contact the author of the article

Katharina Buchholz
Data Journalist
[email protected]

You didn't
I did

Mrs Buchholz is not very happy about your allegations
Better to ask people directly before questioning in public their professionality

If I were you I'd briefly apologise to her,
do it here, she's watching

[DrBeer]

....
Statista has nothing to do with the numbers

If you had followed the link that I posted you had found the original source
...
If you have a problem with the numbers you should go after the authors of the survey, not after Statista

The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report
is published by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute

If you have any comments or enquiries about the survey, please email us at [email protected]

Joanne Lin
Melinda Martinus
Kristina Fong
Indira Aridati
Pham Thi Phuong Thao
Damon Chee

The authors are researchers at the ASEAN Studies Centre, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, Singapore
....

In my previous reply I suggested to contact the author of the article

Katharina Buchholz
Data Journalist
[email protected]

You didn't
I did

Mrs Buchholz is not very happy about your allegations
Better to ask people directly before questioning in public their professionality

If I were you I'd briefly apologise to her,
do it here, she's watching

We have an interesting situation
Someone does "research" and passes it off as the result of his professional activity. However, he makes mistakes accidentally or deliberately. Another source publishes this data. You stumble upon it, and cite the information here, trusting the professionalism of these people. 
I check a couple dozen numbers from these studies, find inconsistencies, voice them, trying to get an opinion as to why such discrepancies, and ARITHMATICALLY, and .... Bingo - I must apologize to the author of the research !
This seems nonsense to me
If the author of the research reads the correspondence, it would be very IMPORTANT for him, in terms of reputational benefits, to show why I am NOT RIGHT, where I am WRONG, if of course I am wrong ! Makes sense, doesn't it ? But the absence of such an answer from the author of the research - would not look good ... Do you agree ? Or am I wrong ?  As always, I'd love to hear your opinion and arguments !

[Peter90]

BRICS - The Project Of The Century

Membership doubled as of January 1
Since January 1, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia have joined the existing members (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as new members.

[Peter90]

De-dollarization...

[Peter90]

What The Rising Gold Price Signals (Spoiler Alert: Nothing Good)


While commentators have focused on gold’s spectacular price rise, there is an underlying issue that is also taking place.  The record setting gold price is signaling that the present fiat monetary order, which is based on the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, is coming to a financially unpleasant end.

Ever since 1971, when the Nixon Administration closed the “gold window,” refusing to redeem gold for dollars held by foreign central banks, the world has been on a “dollar standard” where bank reserves are held in Greenbacks.

If the Fed continues to print dollars to sustain government spending at this rate, the dollar will continue to lose purchasing power and foreigners will no longer want to hold them.  Foreign central banks will then turn to gold.  In fact, central banks are already increasing their positions in gold which has been a catalyst that has fueled the latest rally.

Not surprisingly, the Fed has not purchased much gold (or is not admitting publicly that it has) since it would be a bad look for the issuer of the world’s reserve currency to be abandoning its own currency for gold.

Besides the severe financial implications if the dollar is dethroned, there will be dramatic geopolitical repercussions from the loss of its hegemony.  Just like the British pound was replaced as the dominant world currency after England insanely exhausted itself in fighting WWII and ending its empire, America will face a similar future when the dollar becomes just another money.  Many will see it as a “blessing” if and when the U.S. Empire comes to an end.

While it would appear logical and morally sound to replace the present crumbling monetary order with one based on gold and silver, a far worse paradigm than even the present one is, no doubt, being planned.

The new system will be one of central bank digital currency (CBDC) which would give governments and bankers the power to monitor and control all aspects of economic and social life.

zerohedge.com

[DrBeer]

De-dollarization...

It certainly looks positive in the pictures, but.... Reality is quite different
China and dedollarization is a fake. The Chinese economy cannot exist without a freely convertible currency, and without the ability to buy for dollars and euros on the Western market.

It is enough to search for information on keywords "China does not accept payments from Russia in yuan, fearing secondary sanctions" as we will find out that China refused to accept yuan from its raw materials appendage russia, which tried to circumvent sanctions. It failed. Because the Chinese economy and financial system (leading and not dependent, eh ? ) is VERY afraid of the US sanctions, which will send China's already very sick economy into a "steep dive", from which it will never get out.

PS Learn how beautifully the Chinese "brothers" killed the Russian car industry in less than 1 year and now command the market, having gained a monopoly influence on the Russian car market.... This is an example of "friendly help from China" - something I have long warned the gullible supporters of "friendship with China" about. It is China, not the West, that is destroying their economy, financial system, resources, turning them into its appendages....