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Topics - tranthidung

Pages: [1] 2 3
1
Bitcoin Forum / Bitcoin halving is beginning, not the end of a big bull run. Hold your bitcoins!
« on: April 20, 2024, 06:01:50 AM »
Bitcoin halving, a fourth halving, happened several hours ago at block #840,000. From now, Bitcoin block subsidy will be 3.25 bitcoins for each new block.

Let me emphasize, a halving is a beginning of a bull run, not the end. Stay strong, keep up your belief, and hold your bitcoins tightly.

During the bull market, there will be many big tests and if you have weak hands, you will sell your bitcoins and miss the peak of this big bull run.

Zoom out, you will have stronger confidence for your investment in Bitcoin. With time, a long time frame, for example, 4 year time frame, you can see a super bullish trend. Who can see bearish signals in this bar chart?


2
Bitcoin Forum / Focus on knowledge, build up belief, then investment plan, success will come.
« on: April 18, 2024, 07:04:38 PM »
When you spend more time in Bitcoin market, you will read more news about this market and Bitcoin. You will read many criticism or just hilarious and jealous comment that Bitcoin investors got profit because they were lucky.

In this thread, I simply give you two charts of Bitcoin and Gold. Let me emphasize, it is not a comparison about Bitcoin and Gold, but my intention is to share a fact that intelligent investors got profit by their intelligent knowledge and decisions for investments, then good capital management. They did not get profit simply because of luckiness. Their profit did not come to them like airdrops without any knowledge and their own serious efforts with time.

See two charts and discover a fact that intelligent investors bravely buy in bear markets, when most serious tests on their belief and mentality. Price did not hold if there are not strong believers and investors. It's not luckiness for Bitcoin, Gold and their investors to hold price in bear markets and tested in many bear markets in history. Their cycles can be longer or shorter but you can see how psychology of market cycle works.

People say Bitcoin is too volatile but see the chart, and discover that Gold gets a correction about 40% and it needs about 10 years to have another bull run.

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Each market has its own cycle and discover powerful effects of holding your bitcoins as you can see there.


Note:
  • It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.

3
Bitcoin Forum / Bitcoin is a strongest Proof of Work cryptocurrency. See this comparative table.
« on: April 08, 2024, 03:34:32 PM »

See the screenshot.

You will need more confirmations and equivalent times with altcoin blockchains to get similar security as 6 confirmations on Bitcoin blockchain.

However, it is rough comparison because you can lose all your money if 51% attacks happen after your altcoin transaction get 1 or 2 confirmations. Risk occurs at beginning, not after 10, 20 or 30 confirmations.

4
Bitcoin Forum / DCA vs Smart DCA, what do you choose?
« on: March 22, 2024, 08:35:40 AM »
I believe many of us are familiar with Dollar Cost Averaging, DCA but how about Smart DCA.

This thread is for discussion, and I am not concluding Smart DCA is actually Smart and better than DCA.  :D


Quote
I wanted to remind you about the concept of Smart DCA, purchasing BTC during corrections, when the price drops below the 1W-1M Realized Price.

This strategy works well during a bull rally and is much more effective than classic DCA.


A quick glance gives me that is a good strategy but if I look deeper, it is not actually smart.

By using Smart DCA, simply glance at it, we see entries are below 1W-1M Realized Price but we will miss days, weeks before price drops behind the Realize price (blue line) and miss chances to buy when price is even lower than the Green areas that are entries given by Smart DCA indicator.

Share your thinking about this strategy please.

Personally I see a traditional DCA strategy is better.

Note:
  • It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.

5
Bitcoin Forum / Bitcoin bull market correction drawdowns
« on: March 11, 2024, 05:33:41 PM »
A graphic from CryptoQuant, that can be helpful for newbies. They are newbies so they don't have experience in this market and corrections make them fearful and panic.

Information below with past corrections even in bull runs, can help newbies to understand more on the way price moves up and will not feel fearful with coming corrections along this bull run.

I don't summarize figures because they are all on the graphic. Note that the All time average drawdown is -15%.


If you want to see live charts, there are three free ones.

6
Bitcoin Forum / Bitcoin price history, ATHs and bottoms.
« on: March 10, 2024, 12:11:48 PM »
In finance and TradFi (Traditional Finance), we have saying like "This time will be different". That is true and untrue.

True by nothing in life will repeat itself 100% accurately.
Untrue by there are always things to be different, just in small or big scale.

Let's see Bitcoin Price History with past bottoms and ATHs. You can do your own calculation with data from Coinmarketcap and run your own sheet or can simply look at this source.


Details are in the graphical chart so I don't type it here. Let me know what you feel most meaningful for you and your future investment in Bitcoin?

For me, it is % dip from ATHs, that are -93%, -85%, -84% and -77%.
Notes:
  • It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.
  • I did not compare information in the chart with my calculation as I only made a first one for price change from $32 to $1242, it is 38x, not 32x, so probably there are some minor inaccuracies but let's skip them and see an overview picture.

7
Bitcoin Forum / We are still early in this bull run. Retails have yet come back massively!
« on: March 03, 2024, 12:01:53 PM »

Institutional investors are whales who are game makers and manipulators but Bitcoin market hits its all time high with very last forces from retail investors. Bitcoin is up more than 44% last month (February) and makes many people feel like they missed the party.

Fact is, it is still early. See some metrics above like
  • Google Trend
  • Youtube Subscribers
  • Youtube Views

Like Youtube or not, we can not deny fact that it is one of most favorite homes of retail investors, newbies in Bitcoin market. It is where they get most exposure and information, to hype themselves in Bitcoin market.

Three charts above show that we are far from peak hype of the past bull market.

Also, let's check

Note:
  • It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.

8
Bitcoin Forum / Bitcoin Spot ETFs vs Gold ETFs
« on: March 01, 2024, 04:13:52 PM »
Date of approvals

So far, the new capital is big and Bitcoin Spot ETFs are nearly half of Gold ETFs, just after a little bit more than 1 month of trading. Gold ETFs need 20 years, since 2004 to get only 2 times of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.


Let's see how Gold performed after a first Gold ETF approval.

What do you think?

The naive comparison above shows that Bitcoin will reach $135,000 it if repeats what gold did. In my view, Bitcoin Spot ETFs are performing far better than Gold ETFs. How about their impacts on Bitcoin price?

9
Bitcoin Forum / Best 10D each year of Bitcoin in return.
« on: February 28, 2024, 05:19:57 PM »
Source: https://twitter.com/HHorsley/status/1762660112915964385


This point of view is interesting but my opinion is you should not bargain with the price too much and you should zoom out, think of something bigger than only one year, one market cycle. You can get good profit even you miss best ten days each year.

See Bitcoin profitable days (98.3% as of writing) and its yearly candles chart (with only 3 Red Yearly candles in history).


Note:
  • It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.

10
Bitcoin Forum / Delete
« on: February 27, 2024, 03:28:15 PM »
Sorry, I did not know I duplicated it so the thread is locked by myself.

Please join the discussion here.
https://www.altcoinstalks.com/index.php?topic=313411.0

11
Bitcoin Forum / JP Morgan Chase are participating in 5 categories of cryptocurrency. Jamie lies!
« on: February 01, 2024, 06:56:00 AM »

The table screenshot is taken from Bitwise's Crypto Market Review Q4 2023. You can click on the link to download the report. If you only need to read an abstract of it, read there.

JPMorgan Chase is an institution which are participating in all categories: Crypto Trading and Custody, Private Crypto Funds, Crypto ETFs, Crypto-Enabled Payments, Tokenization.

By pointing this out, I would like to show you how deep JP Morgan Chase engaged in cryptocurrency market so that you can see how their CEO Jamie Dimon told us something oppositely. He lies, the table shows that.

Note:
  • It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.

12
Cryptocurrency Price Speculations / Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you
« on: January 28, 2024, 01:33:26 PM »
My recommendations

  • Don't try to find All time high, you can not predict it correctly and you will only know ATH of a cycle after you are already in a bear market.
  • Don't time the market. Let's the market runs and try to exit with market cycle length, that you can base on Bitcoin history.
  • Each cycle is unique and it can be longer or shorter than previous cycles but if you make your strategy on average cycle length, you will not take profit too far from the ATH & more important you will be able to avoid stuck too deep in a bear market.
  • If you don't want to exit the market by taking profit with all bitcoins you have, do DCA for profit taking, withdrawal like this strategy.
  • Biggest common mistake of newbies is trying to find absolute bottom or ATH. Just don't!


Now, let's use following flow of thinking and plan from LadyofCrypto1.

I will keep her content originally as it is. My own thinking is above.

Quote
▶️ Some questions & predictions
  • When will Bitcoin break its ATH? November 2024
  • When will the bull run end? September 2025
  • When will most of the new 100x alts be released? Jan-July 2024

Why do I think this? I'll show you below 👇
▶️ This Time Is NOT Different
All I've heard for the past 2 years is "This time is different".

They said the bear would be longer because of FTX and recession...

They said the BTC would break its ATH sooner because of ETFs...

Yet, things have been exactly the same 👇

▶️ Market Tops
In 2017 the bull market peaked exactly 29 months before the halving. In 2021 it did the exact same thing.

Alright, I know, it might just be a coincidence. But what if I told you...


▶️ Bear Market Length
Both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets lasted exactly 12 months. This is crazy when you consider how many people were saying this bear market would be way longer and deeper.

But was it deeper?


No, it wasn't. In the 2018 market, Bitcoin retraced 84%. In the 2022 one there was only a 77% retrace.

So all the drama around the bear market and it ended up being the exact same length as the previous one and percentage-wise... better.

▶️ All Time High
In the last two cycles, Bitcoin broke its all-time high 7 and then 8 months after the halving.

The ETF has so far not propelled BTC to 100k overnight as many assumed. I think that like the last two time, it will be 7-8 months, so, November 2024!


▶️ Bull Run
The last three bull runs lasted 9, 9 and 11 months respectively. This one could be longer but I think 9-11 months is a good target to keep in mind.

I think the next run peaks around September 2025 give or take a month. Let's talk profit-taking.

▶️ Taking Profit
I'll take partial profit slowly the whole run up. I believe that if you're up big you should 5%-10% out to secure profit.

A lot of people say "Don't sell strength"... meh. In crypto things can go from strong to dead in hours.


I'll take a small amount of profit on alts that pump hard but as we get closer to Sep 2025 I'll ramp up profit taking. This is a loose plan and could change!

Some profit will be moved out of crypto and the rest reinvested in new projects with more upside potential 🚀

Note:
  • It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.

13
Bitcoin Forum / Bitcoin Spot ETF Tracker
« on: January 23, 2024, 04:02:49 PM »
Bitcoin Spot ETF approval is a very big milestone for Bitcoin market. It makes Bitcoin more 'legal' and attract bigger capital to this market.

A website to track Bitcoin Spot ETFs' holdings.

If you use Twitter, you can follow


We will not see instant effects from Bitcoin Spot ETFs on Bitcoin Spot market because those companies are buying Bitcoin through OTC market. Soon they will knock the Bitcoin Spot market and let's use your imagination to see how price will react.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Trackers
|
Link
|
Notes
|
|Heyapollo.com|ETF details (fee), charts exclusively animated|
|Bitcoin Strategy|Chart, Newsletter|
|Blockworks.co|ETF details (fee, status, AUM ..)|
|Coinglass.com|ETF details (fee, status, AUM ..)|
|ETFdb.com|Bitcoin ETFs List (factsheet, ...)|
|Farside.co.uk|Bitcoin ETF Flow (table, cumulative flow chart)|
|Bitcointreasuries.net|Bitcoin ETF overview, stats, balance sheet history|
|Daily Bitcoin Spot ETF volumes on Trading View|A script on Trading view.|

Note:
  • It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.

14
Bitcoin Forum / Bitcoin bubble index
« on: January 23, 2024, 02:45:56 PM »
This Bitcoin bubble index can be a good extra tool for you to watch the Bitcoin market and be alerted of time when people are starting and probably most FOMO in this market.

It can not tell you when Bitcoin hits its all time high or a peak of bull run but can signal you about time to seriously consider of market exit.

It is from Coinglass.



We are like warming up but still calm before a storm too all time high.

Note:
  • It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.

15
Cryptocurrency Trading / Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts
« on: January 23, 2024, 12:37:00 PM »

Above is the chart from Glassnode for Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts. The market is in a most shaking period after some months. If you are holding Bitcoin and missed chance to take profit nearly $50,000, don't feel bad.

Because
  • Halving is only three months ahead
  • Big whales have been accumulating bitcoin for their games.

The point of this thread is the 10+k Cohort just started their accumulation. See the top blue row in the chart and now we have three top rows (whales) are accumulating Bitcoin after long time of distribution.

Accumulating more bitcoins like whales or if you can not do accumulation, just hold and wait for a bull run.

Note:
  • It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.

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