Is crypto winter coming again now?

[Ferki]

First of all, I would like to explain my definition of crypto winter to you. For me, a crypto winter would mean a state where the entire market would slide below 50% of its current value for 5-10 months. That means the total market value would be less than 1 trillion or even more for a longer period of time.
What many have experienced here in 2018-2019. Those who have been in crypto for a long time will surely tell us about 2011 as the first crypto winter, when Bitcoin went down from $32 to $2. Or even in 2013-2014 when Bitcoin slipped from $1200 to $200. The last time we had a situation where the market or Bitcoin went down 10% and 2 days later again, but so far the market has recovered a bit. If, however, the market does not recover as quickly and the 5-10% is the usual rate for a longer period of time, then a spiral will prevail that will pull us all downwards.
There is currently no reason for it.

What reasons did we have back then? What were the triggers?
2011 was an irrational Bitcoin euphoria. This is currently not the case, but it could happen with the 100k because the number is simply so large for many new investors.
In 2014 it was Mt.Gox, the largest centralized exchange at the time, that was hacked. Or were the insider deals done, you don't really know. We have a lot of them today and at least 3 would have to be hacked at the same time for the trigger to take effect.
In 2018 it was the ICOs, referred to as shiny objects .
2020 we had Covid-19 crash.
That could be called a black swan, but I'll tell you more about that a little later.

The electricity failure that happened the other day can lead to a crash, no question, but a winter?
In my opinion that is unlikely, there will be panicked sales, but that would be more of a crash than winter.
Quantum computer improvements and hacks are also not relevant for me in the near future.
Cryptography is also evolving, and the hackers must first own the quantum computers, which is not easy either
What about Satoshi? If he decides at once the whole 2Mio. Bitcoin he owns to sell? Of course, this can lead to a chain reaction. Unlikely for me.
Stricter regulation can lead to such a thing, including an increase in taxes, especially on unrealized profits but on property.
 These are the 2 things that could be heading towards winter for me. Because that is exactly what can lead to a sell-off, even with large investors, and consequently to a crypto winter.
For me, however, the greatest danger is the end of the pandemic. Suddenly everyone who has missed his vacation and has invested his money in crypto and has won 1000% will have his profit again, sell his crypto to finally have some joy again. I am one of them.

This is all just my own opinion, I would be very interested, what other reasons are there?
Is there anything else I could prepare for?
What did i forget?
I would be very grateful to you for your participation in this poll.
 

[Fivestar4everMVP]

For me, I think it's regulation, the only thing I think can cause maybe a long crypto winter is regulation, but this is unlikely to happen though, if the government happen to impost strict regulations on crypto investments on its citizens, it might cause the faint at heart to rush and sell off their holding to avoid loss of fund, but if on the other hand this happens and it does not move the market down, then am assuming that nothing will cause the market to slide into a winter season except something stronger than the ones you listed above.

[Unbunplease]

Crypto winter is quite possible in 2022. Everything is planned in our world in advance. And a lot of pretexts and excuses will be found ... Let's enjoy 2021 ..

[MrSpasybo]

+
In my opinion, for no reason at all above.
Crypto winter comes simply because whales are satisfied with the returns and the bull market is over. BTC price has been x10,  Altcoins price has also been x50-x100, when the psychological peak of FOMO has been surpassed, people will sell off because of FUD and the crypto season hits like fate.
I don't believe that super cycle will come yet, at least in the short term when crypto is still an unofficial concept in the global market.

[Fenix]

Now the price of bitcoin has reached pretty decent values and even after the recent drop it is more than $ 55,000. I think that the reason for the crypto winter may be panic among bitcoin holders due to any negative information about the cryptocurrency. This information can be different, moreover, fictitious or true. If the holders of the cryptocurrency see that it began to fall and this continues for a certain time, then panic may simply begin due to the fear of losing their large amounts of money in cryptocurrency.

[robert20]

I think we can see  a big dump or a bearish run in the crypto market. Because the market is pumping hard but now it is time to down the price but it is still some months remaining before the crypto winter season starts. But it will occur definitely for sure no one can prevent it.

[sergeybobrov]

Crypto winter is sure to start due to regulators. Now the regulators are just hiding and waiting for the next command from above. Since the growth of the crypto market has been going on for a long time, I think something should start in the fall.

[Paha87]

First of all, I would like to explain my definition of crypto winter to you. For me, a crypto winter would mean a state where the entire market would slide below 50% of its current value for 5-10 months. That means the total market value would be less than 1 trillion or even more for a longer period of time.....
This is all just my own opinion, I would be very interested, what other reasons are there?
Is there anything else I could prepare for?
What did i forget?
I would be very grateful to you for your participation in this poll.

To begin with, I will say that the author is well done and deserves a +1 increase in karma! You ask good questions. Many of the above can be a trigger for the beginning of the stagnation of the cryptocurrency market, I believe that there should be some kind of global, natural or economic cataclysm, or a failure in the work of future projects in the crypto industry, which is unlikely but it can not be excluded!

[Ferki]

Now the price of bitcoin has reached pretty decent values and even after the recent drop it is more than $ 55,000. I think that the reason for the crypto winter may be panic among bitcoin holders due to any negative information about the cryptocurrency. This information can be different, moreover, fictitious or true. If the holders of the cryptocurrency see that it began to fall and this continues for a certain time, then panic may simply begin due to the fear of losing their large amounts of money in cryptocurrency.

Something must trigger this panic, you mean bad news can trigger something like that? I think that you can only trigger a crash with this, but a winter that lasts at least 6 months?
Difficult to imagine for me but +1 for an idea that I did not mention as a possible crypto winter trigger.

[Ferki]

First of all, I would like to explain my definition of crypto winter to you. For me, a crypto winter would mean a state where the entire market would slide below 50% of its current value for 5-10 months. That means the total market value would be less than 1 trillion or even more for a longer period of time.....
This is all just my own opinion, I would be very interested, what other reasons are there?
Is there anything else I could prepare for?
What did i forget?
I would be very grateful to you for your participation in this poll.

To begin with, I will say that the author is well done and deserves a +1 increase in karma! You ask good questions. Many of the above can be a trigger for the beginning of the stagnation of the cryptocurrency market, I believe that there should be some kind of global, natural or economic cataclysm, or a failure in the work of future projects in the crypto industry, which is unlikely but it can not be excluded!

Ok, nice, a natural disaster that might hit the largest mining farms, something like a meteorite. Which in turn can lead to further disasters, such as tsunami or flooding. Earthquakes can also include, volcano eruptions etc.. But they have to be very tough, harder than the pandemic now. But +1

[TomPluz]

In my own view, the Bitcoin winter can happen anytime even for seemingly worthless reasons. This is one standard feature with Bitcoin and cryptocurrency...things can unravel even for the smallest reasons and sometimes for no reason at all. However, am not yet seeing this to happen in the next few months and possibly not in 2021. And if ever this can happen it would be so short-lived.

[Rt Kal]

I think we are seeing a big dump or bearish run in the crypto market.  Because the market is pumping hard and now is the time to reduce prices, there are still months to go before the crypto winter season begins.  However, it must be ensured that no one can stop it.

[Afony]

Of course, crypto winter can happen again, you need to be prepared for this. Only I don't think it will start this year, he still needs to gain strength from the last protracted crypto winter.

[Ferki]

In my own view, the Bitcoin winter can happen anytime even for seemingly worthless reasons. This is one standard feature with Bitcoin and cryptocurrency...things can unravel even for the smallest reasons and sometimes for no reason at all. However, am not yet seeing this to happen in the next few months and possibly not in 2021. And if ever this can happen it would be so short-lived.

So that I understand correctly, you claim the whole crypto system, which was built on trust, can just crash for no reason like a card house?
2021 or later, that doesn't matter, but without reason or warning? Just because?

[andrewBud]

I believe in May-June we will see the growth of cryptocurrencies, July-August will bring some decline, and from October to December we will see a major increase in the price. It is too early to panic.