BTC supply crisis will appear soon

[I-Bit]

Crisis? What crisis? I understand what the OP says but for us this is a great opportunity. There is going to be a reduction in supply and demand is going to go up. We know what this leads to. Those who don't have much bitcoin can take advantage of this to accumulate even more.

I think OP refers to Bitcoin halving. When the Bitcoin halving happens, there is a reduction of Bitcoin circulating supply in the market. When we have less of circulating supply Bitcoin in the market, the price should be encouraged to rise up significantly. However, it may be not happening immediately, Bitcoin needs time to skyrocket. Bitcoin probably reaches the new ATH after few months of Bitcoin halving.

[Baofeng]

Crisis? What crisis? I understand what the OP says but for us this is a great opportunity. There is going to be a reduction in supply and demand is going to go up. We know what this leads to. Those who don't have much bitcoin can take advantage of this to accumulate even more.

I think OP refers to Bitcoin halving. When the Bitcoin halving happens, there is a reduction of Bitcoin circulating supply in the market. When we have less of circulating supply Bitcoin in the market, the price should be encouraged to rise up significantly. However, it may be not happening immediately, Bitcoin needs time to skyrocket. Bitcoin probably reaches the new ATH after few months of Bitcoin halving.

It's going to be scarce, as bitcoin supply will dwindle this very upcoming halving. But I don't consider it as a crisis, that's why Bitcoin was design by Satoshi and that's why the price keeps on going up every after halving because everyone wanted their hands on a assets which the supply is going down.

And as we can see, this is where the genius and brilliant mind of Satoshi came in, as he include the basic economic concept in crypto, supply and demand, as the allocation of Bitcoin will really have everyone fighting it out just to get a few sats very the value are going to increase overtime.

[jeraldskie11]

I don't think so if a decline in Bitcoin holdings on the exchange influences the price.
There will always be buyers and sellers in the market, and there will be no lack of them.
Even while the ETF's acceptance has a significant impact on Bitcoin's price, we must remember that it does not hold half of the supply. Meaning, ETF approval is being utilized as a go signal for someone to invest in Bitcoin, most likely whales and other institutions.

[MrSpasybo]

I don't think so if a decline in Bitcoin holdings on the exchange influences the price.
There will always be buyers and sellers in the market, and there will be no lack of them.
Even while the ETF's acceptance has a significant impact on Bitcoin's price, we must remember that it does not hold half of the supply. Meaning, ETF approval is being utilized as a go signal for someone to invest in Bitcoin, most likely whales and other institutions.

As the demand to buy and own BTC increases thanks to growing price movements and positive media news related to Spot ETF and Halving, we will see an increase in buying pressure on CEXs. However, when the amount of BTC on CEXs is low, buyers will need to pay a higher price to be able to buy BTC. When the amount of BTC "wanted to buy and hold" is more than the amount of BTC "available", we will see an increase in BTC price.

I know that in the market there are always buyers and sellers, but when buyers are willing to pay a higher price, the price will increase.

Of course, we will always have the OTC market and holders will deposit BTC to CEXs to sell, but I would be optimistic about the positive impact of the scarcity of available supply on BTC price 🚀

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

I don't think there's any economic activities that will slow down bitcoin adoption or affect the way people accept the uses for now, we can also consider the network, how the currency is being secured, the protocols that guide the usage, how should we then expect having more priority with things like bitcoin spot ETF to be the major reason why we should accept bitcoin for what it was or not just because of it's approval by the SEC, we should think about this and this has nothing to do with the supply, just as the rich couldn't hold the whole money into their possession.

[tranthidung]

As the demand to buy and own BTC increases thanks to growing price movements and positive media news related to Spot ETF and Halving, we will see an increase in buying pressure on CEXs. However, when the amount of BTC on CEXs is low, buyers will need to pay a higher price to be able to buy BTC. When the amount of BTC "wanted to buy and hold" is more than the amount of BTC "available", we will see an increase in BTC price.

I know that in the market there are always buyers and sellers, but when buyers are willing to pay a higher price, the price will increase.

With some fiascos in cryptocurrency market in 2022 like Terra, FTX, then Voyager, Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi and more, people understood more about risk of storing bitcoin on centralized platforms. By this, they started to change their practice with more favorite choice is storing bitcoin in non custodial wallets. This led to drop of Bitcoin on exchanges that can contribute to supply shock.

A note is non custodial wallet is not enough, let's choose open source non custodial wallet.

Need wallet review especially on reproducibility which only is available with open source wallet, check

• https://walletscrutiny.com/

[KingsDen]

If all the data and information as said is actually correct, then it's obvious that the price of Bitcoin will definitely reach an all-time high. Although throughout last year, there has been high speculation regarding the price of Bitcoin skyrocketing, which i also believe that the price of Bitcoin will surely explode like you said.

All the information in OP are very much verifiable and they are correct. I keenly followed up the article. Although most of the things said in OP above are the things I have already known. So it wasn't difficult for me to verify op.

The fact is that, since 2021 up until date, I know that the rule of "Not your key, not your coin. " Have overly spread in the space, and investors are now putting off their holdings from CEX. Another thing that led to that is because of some exchange hacks and collapses that have happened around the same time, so people have more reasons not to trust CEX.

It is true that the crusade of Not your keys Not your coins yielded results and it is still yielding results. But it is not enough to reduce upto 34%. The effect of Not your Keys Not your coins crusade is almost cancelled by newbies who troop into the industry.

[jeraldskie11]

I don't think so if a decline in Bitcoin holdings on the exchange influences the price.
There will always be buyers and sellers in the market, and there will be no lack of them.
Even while the ETF's acceptance has a significant impact on Bitcoin's price, we must remember that it does not hold half of the supply. Meaning, ETF approval is being utilized as a go signal for someone to invest in Bitcoin, most likely whales and other institutions.

As the demand to buy and own BTC increases thanks to growing price movements and positive media news related to Spot ETF and Halving, we will see an increase in buying pressure on CEXs. However, when the amount of BTC on CEXs is low, buyers will need to pay a higher price to be able to buy BTC. When the amount of BTC "wanted to buy and hold" is more than the amount of BTC "available", we will see an increase in BTC price.

I know that in the market there are always buyers and sellers, but when buyers are willing to pay a higher price, the price will increase.

Of course, we will always have the OTC market and holders will deposit BTC to CEXs to sell, but I would be optimistic about the positive impact of the scarcity of available supply on BTC price 🚀

Centralized and Decentralized Exchanges are both have contribution to the price movement of cryptocurrencies because this is the only place you can sell your crypto such as Bitcoin. By the way, you can be able to sell your assets through P2P but it really couldn't affect directly the price of Bitcoin as it's just like you are transferring assets to different wallet. So if there's shortage of supply (this doesn't mean that there's a running out of supply in the exchanges just there's no sellers that are willing to sell) then the probably the demand is high which makes the price to increase.

[Stompix]

I understand what the OP says but for us this is a great opportunity. There is going to be a reduction in supply and demand is going to go up.

There is not going to be a reduction in supply, there is going to be a reduction in the growth of the supply!
And, why would demand go up, there is no crystal ball that can tell that for sure, maybe demand will go down and we go in bear market again!
I'm a bit worried everyone takes this growth for being like written in stone!

Additionally, we have the BTC halving coming up in April^[3]. The supply of new BTC will be halved, meaning there will be less new BTC for investors and Spot ETFs funds to buy.

I firmly believe that with 3 impacts: increased demand, reduced available supply on CEXs and halved new supply, BTC price will soon explode and create a new ATH right in 2024. For me, the short-term BTC price fluctuations are not a concern, I believe we are in the first steps of the 2024 bullrun and BTC could reach at least $150K in 2025.

Want to hear something funny?
We already had a reverse thirdening! And it got unnoticed!

People say that because there will be less new Bitcoins for sale the price will go up, but look at this:

We're at 40k producing 900 coins a day, so after the halving we will need only 18 millions to cover the newly minted coins instead of 36 millions previously, so if the price was stable with these numbers it means that half of the daily investment sum will go towards buying old coins triggering a growth in overall price!
Pretty solid reasoning.

Now, back in November the coin was at 15k, 900 a day so we needed only 13.5 millions for daily coins coins issuance!
So, in November we had $13.5 millions worth of coins being printed each day, after the halvening we will have $18 million!
If you look from this perspective, the reduction, well, it's not there!

[pawel7777]

Now, back in November the coin was at 15k, 900 a day so we needed only 13.5 millions for daily coins coins issuance!
So, in November we had $13.5 millions worth of coins being printed each day, after the halvening we will have $18 million!
If you look from this perspective, the reduction, well, it's not there!

Solid point, but the logic behind the expectations of the price growth is simplified and does not include historical price actions (I assume you meant Nov 2022?).
So, all other factors aside, if we assume that the market can absorb 6.25 new bitcoins every 10 mins without causing a drop in price, than slashing it down to 3.125 should increase the price if the demand remains constant.
Obviously the reality is more nuanced than that.

[pacar_tiri]

Solid point, but the logic behind the expectations of the price growth is simplified and does not include historical price actions (I assume you meant Nov 2022?).
So, all other factors aside, if we assume that the market can absorb 6.25 new bitcoins every 10 mins without causing a drop in price, than slashing it down to 3.125 should increase the price if the demand remains constant.
Obviously the reality is more nuanced than that.

Increasing the price of Bitcoin is not as easy as you say because if you have to buy Bitcoin in large quantities and the price always goes up then it will be difficult to buy Bitcoin because the price is too expensive, you should just follow the flow and don't expect too much to get Bitcoin at a high price because if too quickly to increase the price of Bitcoin will be very dangerous.

[Stompix]

~

Solid point, but the logic behind the expectations of the price growth is simplified and does not include historical price actions (I assume you meant Nov 2022?).

We could do this for October 2023, based on the coin per per day we produced $24 million, now we're producing $36 million, so a halving will put us just 25% below that in decline of investment needed.

So, all other factors aside, if we assume that the market can absorb 6.25 new bitcoins every 10 mins without causing a drop in price, than slashing it down to 3.125 should increase the price if the demand remains constant.

The supply in BTC alone is irrelevant to a price action if we don't count the price per coin!
If the markets find an equilibrium between daily supply and new investment at 60k for example then a jump to 120k will negate the 50%. Anything over it would mean more money printed every day, far more than the current new investment, and you know pretty well what happens when offer exceeds demand. 

Simply put, every penny extra to the price means 450 extra pennies a day needed.

[Kemarit]

Solid point, but the logic behind the expectations of the price growth is simplified and does not include historical price actions (I assume you meant Nov 2022?).
So, all other factors aside, if we assume that the market can absorb 6.25 new bitcoins every 10 mins without causing a drop in price, than slashing it down to 3.125 should increase the price if the demand remains constant.
Obviously the reality is more nuanced than that.

Increasing the price of Bitcoin is not as easy as you say because if you have to buy Bitcoin in large quantities and the price always goes up then it will be difficult to buy Bitcoin because the price is too expensive, you should just follow the flow and don't expect too much to get Bitcoin at a high price because if too quickly to increase the price of Bitcoin will be very dangerous.

Don't get me wrong, but it we will have this kind of mindset, thinking that bitcoin is expensive or if we compare to early investors who thought that bitcoin will not go high or it's a failed experiment, then I guess it's wrong mentality. Of course we don't see the future so it's right not to expect too much.

But Bitcoin hasn't failed us right? every 4 years, right after the halving, it could be weeks or months, price will go on a "parabolic rise" (it might not be the definition of it, but we know that once the price starts to run, it's hard to stop). And this is how Satoshi design Bitcoin, halving every 4 years, and as a result, supply is limited but demand is doubling=> price going up in the bull cycle.

[TopT3ns]

]
Don't get me wrong, but it we will have this kind of mindset, thinking that bitcoin is expensive or if we compare to early investors who thought that bitcoin will not go high or it's a failed experiment, then I guess it's wrong mentality. Of course we don't see the future so it's right not to expect too much.

But Bitcoin hasn't failed us right? every 4 years, right after the halving, it could be weeks or months, price will go on a "parabolic rise" (it might not be the definition of it, but we know that once the price starts to run, it's hard to stop). And this is how Satoshi design Bitcoin, halving every 4 years, and as a result, supply is limited but demand is doubling=> price going up in the bull cycle.

Bitcoin has never disappointed those who trade well and correctly, but when they trade using the futures method, they will suffer losses if they place the wrong position. What needs to change is the way people think because expensive statements are relative because Bitcoin can be bought in fractions. whatever the amount, and you don't have to buy one Bitcoin, the price of which may be too high at the moment, but if you have money that is not being used, then putting it all into Bitcoin would be better because Bitcoin can be used as a place to store money without having to pay admin fees every month. If you are patient, profits will increase because the potential increase in Bitcoin prices will provide a lot of profit and increase the Bitcoin exchange rate you own.

[pawel7777]

The supply in BTC alone is irrelevant to a price action if we don't count the price per coin!
If the markets find an equilibrium between daily supply and new investment at 60k for example then a jump to 120k will negate the 50%. Anything over it would mean more money printed every day, far more than the current new investment, and you know pretty well what happens when offer exceeds demand. 

Sure, but the logic is: if there's an equilibrium at say $60k and issuance of 6.25/10 mins, then a fair assumption would be that equilibrium will move to a higher price (whatever it'll be) if the issuance rate is halved.

The real-life problem is there's no constant equilibrium, with price being dynamic and the market reacting to any news/rumours.